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Hall of Fame
"You have the best excuse in the world for losing; no trouble losing when you got a good excuse. Winning... that can be heavy on your back, too, like a monkey. You'll drop that load too when you got an excuse. All you gotta do is learn to feel sorry for yourself. One of the best indoor sports, feeling sorry for yourself. A sport enjoyed by all, especially the born losers." -- The Hustler, 1961 film by Robert Rossen
I decided to analyze the Djokovic/Federer rivalry by looking at their two US Open finals, played in 2007, when they were 20 and 26 years old, respectively, and 2015, when their ages were 28 and 34.
First of all, it's clear from watching both matches that neither guy moves as well today as he did in 2007. Even Djokovic seems a bit more vulnerable.
2007: Self-Pity is More Fun than Winning
Djokovic's 2007 game was remarkably similar to his present game. He hit numerous excellent 120+ mph serves well aimed and angled to the edges. He had numerous easy service games as a result. His defense was impenetrable, except when Federer hit first serves that pulled Djokovic out of position. But on big points, break points, tiebreak points and so on, Djokovic had a tendency to overhit and make easy errors. Djokovic also double-faulted far more than is healthy.
Djokovic had seven set points and still lost the first set. He had more set points and lost the second set.
More than that, Djokovic also had a tendency towards histrionic drama, such as racquet smashes and at one point he dumped water out of a bottle onto the court. He laughed and grimaced at his backhand errors. He was giving himself an excuse for losing. Self-pity was more fun than winning at that point in his career. Federer didn't play very well but won in straights anyway. Federer allowed Djokovic to beat himself. That's called winning ugly. It's exactly what the more mature Djokovic did to Federer in the 2015 final.
What follows are some sequences that illustrate what went wrong for Djokovic in 2007.
Look who's sitting with Djokovic's team watching the match and cheering him on:
First Set:
Djokovic up 6-5, 40-0. Makes several unforced groundstroke errors, hitting long. On break point, double-faults. The 40-0 sequence ends like this. Backhand to backhand rally.
Djokovic hits a weak, short ball to Federer's forehand, and Federer responds. In future years, this is a type of rally ball Djokovic would direct to Federer's backhand.
This ball is a winner, hit on the line on Djokovic's deuce court. This begins a turnaround that results in Federer breaking and sending to set to a tiebreak.
Tiebreak: Djokovic minibreaks, now has two serves at 3-2. The first point is illustrated below. Good serve that Federer barely gets in play.
Djokovic hits a forehand cross court.
Federer's backhand goes cross court.
Djokovic continues the rally with a cross court backhand of his own.
This time Federer is in a more defensive position and hits a weak one.
Djokovic now take the initiative and hits up the line.
But he nets the ball and takes it out on an innocent racquet. Djokovic might still try this shot today, and might make it. But I think he also might keep the cross court rally going until Federer errors out on his backhand side.
After this, Djokovic double-faulted to give Federer a 4-3 lead with two serves coming. Djokovic probed Federer's defense on the next point until Djokovic errored out. Djokovic did one of his "poor me" flourishes. Federer hit a good first serve at 5-3. At 6-3, Djokovic won his service point playing good defense until Federer errored out on the backhand. At 6-4, Djokovic double-faulted. Here, have a free tennis set. Djokovic had 7 set points, many on his own stick, and still lost.
Second Set:
Djokovic is up a break. Serves to Federer's backhand. Federer returns to Djokovic's backhand.
Djokovic hits to the deuce side, but rushes it and overhits the ball.
His body language says he knows right away. Is this easy error one Djokovic would still commit today?
Now, in the tiebreak. Djokovic trying to hold serve.
Federer returns deep off the forehand side.
Djokovic hits a backhand cross court, moving Federer into his own backhand.
Federer hits the safe shot back to Djokovic.
Djokovic overhits a backhand, losing patience. It lands out and Federer pulls away, winning all remaining points in the tiebreak. Does Djokovic still commonly make this mistake?
I decided to analyze the Djokovic/Federer rivalry by looking at their two US Open finals, played in 2007, when they were 20 and 26 years old, respectively, and 2015, when their ages were 28 and 34.
First of all, it's clear from watching both matches that neither guy moves as well today as he did in 2007. Even Djokovic seems a bit more vulnerable.
2007: Self-Pity is More Fun than Winning
Djokovic's 2007 game was remarkably similar to his present game. He hit numerous excellent 120+ mph serves well aimed and angled to the edges. He had numerous easy service games as a result. His defense was impenetrable, except when Federer hit first serves that pulled Djokovic out of position. But on big points, break points, tiebreak points and so on, Djokovic had a tendency to overhit and make easy errors. Djokovic also double-faulted far more than is healthy.
Djokovic had seven set points and still lost the first set. He had more set points and lost the second set.
More than that, Djokovic also had a tendency towards histrionic drama, such as racquet smashes and at one point he dumped water out of a bottle onto the court. He laughed and grimaced at his backhand errors. He was giving himself an excuse for losing. Self-pity was more fun than winning at that point in his career. Federer didn't play very well but won in straights anyway. Federer allowed Djokovic to beat himself. That's called winning ugly. It's exactly what the more mature Djokovic did to Federer in the 2015 final.
What follows are some sequences that illustrate what went wrong for Djokovic in 2007.
Look who's sitting with Djokovic's team watching the match and cheering him on:
First Set:
Djokovic up 6-5, 40-0. Makes several unforced groundstroke errors, hitting long. On break point, double-faults. The 40-0 sequence ends like this. Backhand to backhand rally.
Djokovic hits a weak, short ball to Federer's forehand, and Federer responds. In future years, this is a type of rally ball Djokovic would direct to Federer's backhand.
This ball is a winner, hit on the line on Djokovic's deuce court. This begins a turnaround that results in Federer breaking and sending to set to a tiebreak.
Tiebreak: Djokovic minibreaks, now has two serves at 3-2. The first point is illustrated below. Good serve that Federer barely gets in play.
Djokovic hits a forehand cross court.
Federer's backhand goes cross court.
Djokovic continues the rally with a cross court backhand of his own.
This time Federer is in a more defensive position and hits a weak one.
Djokovic now take the initiative and hits up the line.
But he nets the ball and takes it out on an innocent racquet. Djokovic might still try this shot today, and might make it. But I think he also might keep the cross court rally going until Federer errors out on his backhand side.
After this, Djokovic double-faulted to give Federer a 4-3 lead with two serves coming. Djokovic probed Federer's defense on the next point until Djokovic errored out. Djokovic did one of his "poor me" flourishes. Federer hit a good first serve at 5-3. At 6-3, Djokovic won his service point playing good defense until Federer errored out on the backhand. At 6-4, Djokovic double-faulted. Here, have a free tennis set. Djokovic had 7 set points, many on his own stick, and still lost.
Second Set:
Djokovic is up a break. Serves to Federer's backhand. Federer returns to Djokovic's backhand.
Djokovic hits to the deuce side, but rushes it and overhits the ball.
His body language says he knows right away. Is this easy error one Djokovic would still commit today?
Now, in the tiebreak. Djokovic trying to hold serve.
Federer returns deep off the forehand side.
Djokovic hits a backhand cross court, moving Federer into his own backhand.
Federer hits the safe shot back to Djokovic.
Djokovic overhits a backhand, losing patience. It lands out and Federer pulls away, winning all remaining points in the tiebreak. Does Djokovic still commonly make this mistake?