Elephant(s) in the room

demrle

demrle

Professional
Roger lost the last glimmer of hope of ever being considered GOAT, by virtue of Nadal winning RG, his 20th GS title.

There is too much noise in the GOAT debate. It is a two-horse race. It is exclusively between Nadal and Djokovic now.

My assumption is, that Roger will not be winning more majors than Rafa the rest of the way. One can argue differently, but not if one wants to retain his intellectual honesty. Rafa's dominance at FO alone is enough to put that argument to rest, not to mention the age difference. Additionally, in this tirade all majors are considered to have been created the same, as they are all in the same category of tennis tournaments, form a class of their own rather. So, who's to say, whether it's more difficult and hence respect worthy to absolutely dominate one of them, or be (more) equally successful at all of them. Not me. Hence, I consider it to be a subjective issue and will leave it out of scope. I'll try to keep this post based on stats, and, but just as little as necessary, educated projections. Please bear in mind, that the purpose of the exercise to follow is not to determine who has a better chance of ending his career as a GOAT between Rafa and Novak, but to "prove" the hypothesis, that Roger has no such chance anymore. Given all these premises here's my perspective on things.

As it currently stands, Rafa has the same number of majors as Roger, so it's up to other criteria between them.

Out of those, Rafa is

- significantly better in H2H, both total, 24-16, and at majors, 10-4 (chance of significant change - no)
- significantly better in Masters 1000s, 35-28 (chance of significant change - no)
- significantly better in Olympic gold medals, 1-0 (chance of significant change - yes)

while Roger is

- significantly better WTF titles, 6-0 (chance of significant change - no)
- significantly better in Weeks at no.1, 310-209 (chance of significant change - yes)
- significantly better in Total number of titles, 103-86 (chance of significant change - yes)

Rafa and Roger are currently also equal in the number of Year end no.1s with 5 each.

I see it as a wash between Rafa and Roger at the moment, hence the two of them being co-GOATs. However, here is my projection. Roger has a chance, albeit pretty small in my eyes, of gaining significant ground on Rafa only in the Olympics category, whereas Rafa could gain significant ground on Roger in Total number of titles (highly likely) and in Weeks at no.1 (unlikely). An educated guess would be, of course, that Rafa has better chances of breaking the tie in Grand Slams and Year and no.1. In summation, Roger should hope for a status quo between him and Rafa. As it is my honest belief, that Roger is done winning majors (I do not see him winning against the field consisting of Novak and Rafa at any of them), Roger should hope that Rafa doesn't win any more slams either. Unlikely as that would be, let's analyze that scenario, in which Novak comes into play.

Current comparison between Roger and Novak looks as follows.

Roger is

- better in Grand Slams, 20-17 (chance of significant change - yes)
- better WTF titles, 6-5 (chance of significant change - yes)
- better in Weeks at no.1, 310-291(chance of significant change - yes)
- significantly better in Total number of titles, 103-81 (chance of significant change - yes)

while Novak is

- better in H2H, both total 27-23 and at majors 11-6 (chance of significant change - no)
- significantly better in Masters 1000s, 36-28 (chance of significant change - no)
- better in Year end no.1s, 6-5 (chance of significant change - no)

Roger has a clear advantage over Novak at the moment, as he is better in the most important categories. However, Roger has no realistic chance of gaining significant ground in any of the categories, in which Novak is better. On the other hand, Novak is all but guaranteed to either equal of overtake Roger in all categories, in which Roger is currently better. Remember, in this section, we operate under the premise of Rafa not winning anymore majors, otherwise Rafa is beating Roger in the GOAT race himself.

Discussion. Rafa and Roger are currently co-GOATs. Rafa has a chance of breaking that tie and becoming the GOAT, as opposed to Roger. Roger's best hope is for Rafa to stop winning. Roger is currently better than Novak. If Rafa stops winning, Novak will overtake Roger in basically every category and become the GOAT himself. In summation, Roger is not the GOAT.

Honest edit: Roger is not the GOAT anymore.
 
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NatF

NatF

Bionic Poster
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clayqueen

clayqueen

Talk Tennis Guru
Very interesting analysis. However, I think the goal post for GOAT will be moved to nebulous criteria that will be very subjective in favour of Roger. I'm guessing it will soon be seen as the greatest ambassador of the sport, the fans' favourite and the player who has displayed the greatest sportsmanship. Everyone knows that all of the above cannot be measured objectively and votes cannot be verified but Roger "leads" in all three in the eyes of the establishment.
 
PeoplesChamp

PeoplesChamp

Legend
clayqueen said:
Very interesting analysis. However, I think the goal post for GOAT will be moved to nebulous criteria that will be very subjective in favour of Roger. I'm guessing it will soon be seen as the greatest ambassador of the sport, the fans' favourite and the player who has displayed the greatest sportsmanship. Everyone knows that all of the above cannot be measured objectively and votes cannot be verified but Roger "leads" in all three in the eyes of the establishment.
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Don't forget most talented, most titles, most wins, most records etc. You're starting to get it though. I'm so proud of you :giggle:
 
Towny

Towny

Hall of Fame
While I don't think OPs conclusion is unreasonable, I don't agree. I'll articulate why.

After some long discussions with another poster on here, I concluded that I feel that the Big 3 are all at a pretty similar level in terms of how good they actually are. I dont think Borg and Sampras are far off either, in spite of being surpassed in achievements by all 3 players years ago. However, I still think there can be a GOAT among the 3, based largely on achievements as this is the best metric we have.

At the moment, I still think Federer is the GOAT. Slams are the most important criterion by most accounts and he is joint leader there. However, he leads Nadal significantly in time at number 1 and at the YEC. Rafa of course leads at the Masters. With those considerations and others, I have Federer very slightly ahead in my view, although that opinion is potentially subject to change on further reflection. Novak is of course 3 slams behind so I don't consider him ahead of either of the other 2 yet.

Now the likelihood is that Rafa will pass Fed's record at RG next year. At that point, I'll consider him the GOAT. So why not just consider him the GOAT now as it's seemingly inevitable? Because Federer hasn't retired yet. He came 1 point away from winning Wimbledon against the only guy in the field who can beat him at his best there. Yeah, I think it's unlikely Fed wins another slam, but it's not impossible. We saw how well Federer returned from injury in 2017 and even in 2014 too. And if Rafa wins RG and Fed wins Wimbledon, we'll be in the same position we are now. And while I think it's highly likely Rafa wins RG next year, with every passing year, it becomes less of a guarantee as Rafa gets older and the likelihood of someone in the field beating him increases. So it's likely I'll consider Rafa GOAT next year but it's far from a sure thing. So I'm not willing to do that now.

Even less certainty with Novak. 3 slams is no mean feat. Sure he's very likely to win more but injury/decline/slump could happen at any time. So I can't consider him GOAT yet.

I personally think it's reasonable to consider any of them or even none of the the GOAT. But I really don't think Fed fans that consider Federer GOAT are crazy. I think there are reasonable grounds. Just my two cents.
 
Tennis_Freak99

Tennis_Freak99

Legend
Towny said:
While I don't think OPs conclusion is unreasonable, I don't agree. I'll articulate why.

After some long discussions with another poster on here, I concluded that I feel that the Big 3 are all at a pretty similar level in terms of how good they actually are. I dont think Borg and Sampras are far off either, in spite of being surpassed in achievements by all 3 players years ago. However, I still think there can be a GOAT among the 3, based largely on achievements as this is the best metric we have.

At the moment, I still think Federer is the GOAT. Slams are the most important criterion by most accounts and he is joint leader there. However, he leads Nadal significantly in time at number 1 and at the YEC. Rafa of course leads at the Masters. With those considerations and others, I have Federer very slightly ahead in my view, although that opinion is potentially subject to change on further reflection. Novak is of course 3 slams behind so I don't consider him ahead of either of the other 2 yet.

Now the likelihood is that Rafa will pass Fed's record at RG next year. At that point, I'll consider him the GOAT. So why not just consider him the GOAT now as it's seemingly inevitable? Because Federer hasn't retired yet. He came 1 point away from winning Wimbledon against the only guy in the field who can beat him at his best there. Yeah, I think it's unlikely Fed wins another slam, but it's not impossible. We saw how well Federer returned from injury in 2017 and even in 2014 too. And if Rafa wins RG and Fed wins Wimbledon, we'll be in the same position we are now. And while I think it's highly likely Rafa wins RG next year, with every passing year, it becomes less of a guarantee as Rafa gets older and the likelihood of someone in the field beating him increases. So it's likely I'll consider Rafa GOAT next year but it's far from a sure thing. So I'm not willing to do that now.

Even less certainty with Novak. 3 slams is no mean feat. Sure he's very likely to win more but injury/decline/slump could happen at any time. So I can't consider him GOAT yet.

I personally think it's reasonable to consider any of them or even none of the the GOAT. But I really don't think Fed fans that consider Federer GOAT are crazy. I think there are reasonable grounds. Just my two cents.
Click to expand...

I think what the OP is also trying to convey is that apart from the slam record, Novak will probably break/tie the other records you mentioned (#1 and YEC) by March next year. So Fed won't be holding the most important records as a standalone, which has been the case since 2009.

The 'good records' left with him are:

1) Wimbledon (and grass in general) : Novak had an outside chance of reaching 8 had Wimbledon been played this year. I don't think he will win 3 more from now on, although there is some chance. Fed keeps this IMO all in all

2) Consecutive weeks at #1 : This is not getting broken by Djokodal or anytime soon

3) Longevity records (103 titles, 1200+matches won, oldest #1 etc) : These also can be broken by Djokodal if they play as long as Fed playeD

4) Streaks: Fed had some insane streaks in his career ( HC match wins, Consec Slam SF, 5 Wimby,5 USO). BUT Djokovic and Nadal have their own share of streaks so they are all unique. Hence this isn't a justifiable GOAT record IMO
 
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demrle

demrle

Professional
clayqueen said:
Very interesting analysis. However, I think the goal post for GOAT will be moved to nebulous criteria that will be very subjective in favour of Roger. I'm guessing it will soon be seen as the greatest ambassador of the sport, the fans' favourite and the player who has displayed the greatest sportsmanship. Everyone knows that all of the above cannot be measured objectively and votes cannot be verified but Roger "leads" in all three in the eyes of the establishment.
Click to expand...
Then you make a couple more good plays, make it a shorter kick. Then it's harder to move the posts enough for a miss. If they still manage to move them, though - Rafa finds Novak in the end zone for a TD. :cool: Boom, no more goal posts! :-D Or Novak throws it to Rafa. I don't care... Then you take the higher road, let them move the posts again during PAT. Or you go for two. I don't care...

 
L

Le Master

Professional
demrle said:
. Roger has a chance, albeit pretty small in my eyes, of gaining significant ground on Rafa only in the Olympics category
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This is a pretty arbitrary category. The Olympics don't matter much at all. It's now an exhibition by definition since it awards no ranking points, and when it did award ranking points, it was at 400 points at 2000, 2004, and 2008, and 750 in 2012. It's not a huge victory. These points these tournaments are worth in relation to one another is what all title comparisons are based off. The Olympics doesn't get special treatment, and any worth attempted to be above and beyond the points won has no logical reasoning. And if you do attempt to do that, you necessarily have to then adjust the worth of every other tournament likewise, thus making the slams unequal in value.
 
demrle

demrle

Professional
NatF said:
Your analysis is superficial, lacks naunce and is hardly a new take. I will give you credit for not dipping into the well of "weak era" and "competition" though.
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No such thing. The player is a product of his era AND vice versa.
NatF said:
Your analysis is superficial, lacks naunce and is hardly a new take. I will give you credit for not dipping into the well of "weak era" and "competition" though.
Click to expand...
Why's that?
NatF said:
Your analysis is superficial, lacks naunce and is hardly a new take. I will give you credit for not dipping into the well of "weak era" and "competition" though.
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Qualitatively - I don't know, probably not. Quantitatively though, it's based on the fact that Rafa equaled Roger's GS count. So it can't be that old.
 
AnOctorokForDinner

AnOctorokForDinner

Talk Tennis Guru
Numerical goat battles have just been an outwardly objective proxy for fans' feels on strength of play. If you adjust greatness slam counts by displayed tennis level Fedr still top if you believe in him. Nadal still may be set to overtake though, his RG superiority is ungodly. Djokovic though has won most of his slams in close tussles against non-peak opponents.
 
demrle

demrle

Professional
Yugram said:
Good analysis, OP. But you should’ve mentioned a weak era of 2003-2007, in which Federer feasted, and a lack of any reasonable competition, barring young Nadal on clay.
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Thank you!

There's no such thing as a weak era for me, though. No control group in that experiment. A great player influences both the subjective perception of the quality of the field, as well as the objective quality of the field, the latter by halting the development of his competitors.
 
Tennis_Freak99

Tennis_Freak99

Legend
AnOctorokForDinner said:
Numerical goat battles have just been an outwardly objective proxy for fans' feels on strength of play. If you adjust greatness slam counts by displayed tennis level Fedr still top if you believe in him. Nadal still may be set to overtake though, his RG superiority is ungodly. Djokovic though has won most of his slams in close tussles against non-peak opponents.
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That's what makes tennis exciting! Who wants straight set drubbings for the tournament favorite?

I mean come on. 'Displayed level of tennis' is very very vague. We as spectators are here to see some fun, close battles, tournament upsets.
Tennis needs that to flourish
 
A

Arak

Legend
To me the matter is simple. The Goat is the one who gets the most votes. Last week I posted a poll, that was deleted by moderators, and Federer was easily in the lead. It doesn’t matter how many slams anyone wins, the Goat is just a perception. Post a poll and see for yourself. Federer is still the Goat.
 
AnOctorokForDinner

AnOctorokForDinner

Talk Tennis Guru
Tennis_Freak99 said:
That's what makes tennis exciting! Who wants straight set drubbings for the tournament favorite?

I mean come on. 'Displayed level of tennis' is very very vague. We as spectators are here to see some fun, close battles, tournament upsets.
Tennis needs that to flourish
Click to expand...

I'd rather a quality straight-setter than a five-set chokefest... the latter wrecks your nerves for naught as you don't even get to enjoy the good tennis cause there isn't much.

The last four non-clay slams all ended in five-set finals (Djokovic d Federer, Nadal d Medvedev, Djokovic d Thiem, Thiem d Zverev), and I'd never rewatch any of these again for enjoyment, rather to better see and note what went wrong. It's not fun to see crucial points mostly decided by weak play (errors, pushing, stupid tactics).
 
S

StrongRule

Talk Tennis Guru
AnOctorokForDinner said:
I'd rather a quality straight-setter than a five-set chokefest... the latter wrecks your nerves for naught as you don't even get to enjoy the good tennis cause there isn't much.

The last four non-clay slams all ended in five-set finals (Djokovic d Federer, Nadal d Medvedev, Djokovic d Thiem, Thiem d Zverev), and I'd never rewatch any of these again for enjoyment, rather to better see and note what went wrong. It's not fun to see crucial points mostly decided by weak play (errors, pushing, stupid tactics).
Click to expand...
USO 2019 final is one of my favorite matches. There were enough great rallies.
 
D

Deleted member 744633

Guest
Arak said:
To me the matter is simple. The Goat is the one who gets the most votes. Last week I posted a poll, that was deleted by moderators, and Federer was easily in the lead. It doesn’t matter how many slams anyone wins, the Goat is just a perception. Post a poll and see for yourself. Federer is still the Goat.
Click to expand...

AdeengOTHA! Please stock up on the Spice Girls records because they draw more votes than Pink Floyd! LOL!
 
A

Arak

Legend
Sunny Ali said:
Please stock up on the Spice Girls records because they draw more votes than Pink Floyd! LOL!
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Not a realistic comparison. If anything I would say Federer is Pink Floyd and Djokovic is the spice girls. Haven’t you seen the boob throws?
PS: and Nadal is Bon Jovi :D
 
D

Deleted member 744633

Guest
Arak said:
Not a realistic comparison. If anything I would say Federer is Pink Floyd and Djokovic is the spice girls. Haven’t you seen the boob throws?
PS: and Nadal is Bon Jovi :D
Click to expand...

LOL, brilliant! :-D (y)
 
demrle

demrle

Professional
Towny said:
While I don't think OPs conclusion is unreasonable, I don't agree. I'll articulate why.
Click to expand...
Thanks for your contribution, it is much appreciated!

Towny said:
At the moment, I still think Federer is the GOAT. Slams are the most important criterion by most accounts and he is joint leader there. However, he leads Nadal significantly in time at number 1 and at the YEC. Rafa of course leads at the Masters. With those considerations and others, I have Federer very slightly ahead in my view, although that opinion is potentially subject to change on further reflection.
Click to expand...

I see the H2H between Rafa and Roger as a pretty significant criterion, being relatively one-sidedly, 24-16 and 10-4 at majors, in favor of Rafa. We are down to tiebreakers now and I would even argue, that H2H is the 3rd most important criterion, after Slams and time at number 1.

Roger does have a big lead in the total number of titles, 103-86. However, 16 out of those 17 titles are from ATP 250 tournaments, as Rafa has won 9 and Roger 25 of those!

Rafa also has the Olympic gold and Roger, Rafa and Novak seem to hold that achievement in high regard, as opposed to many arguing fans, who have been arbitrarily disputing its value.

So, to me, Rafa and Roger are co-GOATs for now, but with a shakier case for Roger.

Now the likelihood is that Rafa will pass Fed's record at RG next year. At that point, I'll consider him the GOAT. So why not just consider him the GOAT now as it's seemingly inevitable? Because Federer hasn't retired yet. He came 1 point away from winning Wimbledon against the only guy in the field who can beat him at his best there. Yeah, I think it's unlikely Fed wins another slam, but it's not impossible. We saw how well Federer returned from injury in 2017 and even in 2014 too. And if Rafa wins RG and Fed wins Wimbledon, we'll be in the same position we are now. And while I think it's highly likely Rafa wins RG next year, with every passing year, it becomes less of a guarantee as Rafa gets older and the likelihood of someone in the field beating him increases. So it's likely I'll consider Rafa GOAT next year but it's far from a sure thing. So I'm not willing to do that now.

Even less certainty with Novak. 3 slams is no mean feat. Sure he's very likely to win more but injury/decline/slump could happen at any time. So I can't consider him GOAT yet.
.
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Disclaimer: I didn't account for the possibility of injuries and slumps, as that is for me too much of a fatalistic approach that kills all the fun, since the only truth is, of course, that anything is possible. But that would be just stating the obvious. That being said...

From my OP:

"...it is my honest belief, that Roger is done winning majors (I do not see him winning against the field consisting of Novak and Rafa at any of them),..."

Novak and Rafa are sitting at number 1 and 2 in the rankings and that is highly unlikely to change in the considerable future, hence making them the first two seeds at the coming majors. So here's how I see Roger's chances, slam by slam.

AO: Favorites - Novak, Rafa, Thiem (in that order) => chances of Roger making the semis, while Rafa or Novak not - next to zero => Roger has to play one of them in the semis and then, more likely than not, the other one in the finals => chances of winning: forget about it

FO: Favorites - Rafa, Thiem, Novak (in that order) => chances of Roger making the semis, while Rafa or Novak not - next to zero => Roger has to play one of them in the semis and then, either the other one or Thiem in the finals => chances of winning: forget about it

Wimbledon - Favorites: Novak, Roger, Rafa (in that order) => chances of Roger making the semis, while Rafa or Novak not - possible, but unlikely => Roger has to play one of them in the semis and then, more likely than not, the other one in the finals => chances of winning: around 25%

USO - Favorites: Novak, Rafa, no idea (in that order) => chances of Roger making the semis, while Rafa or Novak not - next to zero => Roger has to play one of them in the semis and then, more likely than not, the other one in the finals => chances of winning: forget about it

And for this relatively unlikely scenario of Roger winning the Wimbledon, I tried to account in OP by saying:


"My assumption is, that Roger will not be winning more majors than Rafa the rest of the way."

Since I believe that nobody in his right mind would claim that, all things being equal, Roger's chances of winning Wimbledon are greater than Rafa's winning RG, I simply cannot find a scenario where Roger would end up with more majors than Rafa. And, as I said, should they both stop winning majors now, Novak would overtake them both, and in no time at that.
 
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