demrle
Professional
Roger lost the last glimmer of hope of ever being considered GOAT, by virtue of Nadal winning RG, his 20th GS title.
There is too much noise in the GOAT debate. It is a two-horse race. It is exclusively between Nadal and Djokovic now.
My assumption is, that Roger will not be winning more majors than Rafa the rest of the way. One can argue differently, but not if one wants to retain his intellectual honesty. Rafa's dominance at FO alone is enough to put that argument to rest, not to mention the age difference. Additionally, in this tirade all majors are considered to have been created the same, as they are all in the same category of tennis tournaments, form a class of their own rather. So, who's to say, whether it's more difficult and hence respect worthy to absolutely dominate one of them, or be (more) equally successful at all of them. Not me. Hence, I consider it to be a subjective issue and will leave it out of scope. I'll try to keep this post based on stats, and, but just as little as necessary, educated projections. Please bear in mind, that the purpose of the exercise to follow is not to determine who has a better chance of ending his career as a GOAT between Rafa and Novak, but to "prove" the hypothesis, that Roger has no such chance anymore. Given all these premises here's my perspective on things.
As it currently stands, Rafa has the same number of majors as Roger, so it's up to other criteria between them.
Out of those, Rafa is
- significantly better in H2H, both total, 24-16, and at majors, 10-4 (chance of significant change - no)
- significantly better in Masters 1000s, 35-28 (chance of significant change - no)
- significantly better in Olympic gold medals, 1-0 (chance of significant change - yes)
while Roger is
- significantly better WTF titles, 6-0 (chance of significant change - no)
- significantly better in Weeks at no.1, 310-209 (chance of significant change - yes)
- significantly better in Total number of titles, 103-86 (chance of significant change - yes)
Rafa and Roger are currently also equal in the number of Year end no.1s with 5 each.
I see it as a wash between Rafa and Roger at the moment, hence the two of them being co-GOATs. However, here is my projection. Roger has a chance, albeit pretty small in my eyes, of gaining significant ground on Rafa only in the Olympics category, whereas Rafa could gain significant ground on Roger in Total number of titles (highly likely) and in Weeks at no.1 (unlikely). An educated guess would be, of course, that Rafa has better chances of breaking the tie in Grand Slams and Year and no.1. In summation, Roger should hope for a status quo between him and Rafa. As it is my honest belief, that Roger is done winning majors (I do not see him winning against the field consisting of Novak and Rafa at any of them), Roger should hope that Rafa doesn't win any more slams either. Unlikely as that would be, let's analyze that scenario, in which Novak comes into play.
Current comparison between Roger and Novak looks as follows.
Roger is
- better in Grand Slams, 20-17 (chance of significant change - yes)
- better WTF titles, 6-5 (chance of significant change - yes)
- better in Weeks at no.1, 310-291(chance of significant change - yes)
- significantly better in Total number of titles, 103-81 (chance of significant change - yes)
while Novak is
- better in H2H, both total 27-23 and at majors 11-6 (chance of significant change - no)
- significantly better in Masters 1000s, 36-28 (chance of significant change - no)
- better in Year end no.1s, 6-5 (chance of significant change - no)
Roger has a clear advantage over Novak at the moment, as he is better in the most important categories. However, Roger has no realistic chance of gaining significant ground in any of the categories, in which Novak is better. On the other hand, Novak is all but guaranteed to either equal of overtake Roger in all categories, in which Roger is currently better. Remember, in this section, we operate under the premise of Rafa not winning anymore majors, otherwise Rafa is beating Roger in the GOAT race himself.
Discussion. Rafa and Roger are currently co-GOATs. Rafa has a chance of breaking that tie and becoming the GOAT, as opposed to Roger. Roger's best hope is for Rafa to stop winning. Roger is currently better than Novak. If Rafa stops winning, Novak will overtake Roger in basically every category and become the GOAT himself. In summation, Roger is not the GOAT.
Honest edit: Roger is not the GOAT anymore.
There is too much noise in the GOAT debate. It is a two-horse race. It is exclusively between Nadal and Djokovic now.
My assumption is, that Roger will not be winning more majors than Rafa the rest of the way. One can argue differently, but not if one wants to retain his intellectual honesty. Rafa's dominance at FO alone is enough to put that argument to rest, not to mention the age difference. Additionally, in this tirade all majors are considered to have been created the same, as they are all in the same category of tennis tournaments, form a class of their own rather. So, who's to say, whether it's more difficult and hence respect worthy to absolutely dominate one of them, or be (more) equally successful at all of them. Not me. Hence, I consider it to be a subjective issue and will leave it out of scope. I'll try to keep this post based on stats, and, but just as little as necessary, educated projections. Please bear in mind, that the purpose of the exercise to follow is not to determine who has a better chance of ending his career as a GOAT between Rafa and Novak, but to "prove" the hypothesis, that Roger has no such chance anymore. Given all these premises here's my perspective on things.
As it currently stands, Rafa has the same number of majors as Roger, so it's up to other criteria between them.
Out of those, Rafa is
- significantly better in H2H, both total, 24-16, and at majors, 10-4 (chance of significant change - no)
- significantly better in Masters 1000s, 35-28 (chance of significant change - no)
- significantly better in Olympic gold medals, 1-0 (chance of significant change - yes)
while Roger is
- significantly better WTF titles, 6-0 (chance of significant change - no)
- significantly better in Weeks at no.1, 310-209 (chance of significant change - yes)
- significantly better in Total number of titles, 103-86 (chance of significant change - yes)
Rafa and Roger are currently also equal in the number of Year end no.1s with 5 each.
I see it as a wash between Rafa and Roger at the moment, hence the two of them being co-GOATs. However, here is my projection. Roger has a chance, albeit pretty small in my eyes, of gaining significant ground on Rafa only in the Olympics category, whereas Rafa could gain significant ground on Roger in Total number of titles (highly likely) and in Weeks at no.1 (unlikely). An educated guess would be, of course, that Rafa has better chances of breaking the tie in Grand Slams and Year and no.1. In summation, Roger should hope for a status quo between him and Rafa. As it is my honest belief, that Roger is done winning majors (I do not see him winning against the field consisting of Novak and Rafa at any of them), Roger should hope that Rafa doesn't win any more slams either. Unlikely as that would be, let's analyze that scenario, in which Novak comes into play.
Current comparison between Roger and Novak looks as follows.
Roger is
- better in Grand Slams, 20-17 (chance of significant change - yes)
- better WTF titles, 6-5 (chance of significant change - yes)
- better in Weeks at no.1, 310-291(chance of significant change - yes)
- significantly better in Total number of titles, 103-81 (chance of significant change - yes)
while Novak is
- better in H2H, both total 27-23 and at majors 11-6 (chance of significant change - no)
- significantly better in Masters 1000s, 36-28 (chance of significant change - no)
- better in Year end no.1s, 6-5 (chance of significant change - no)
Roger has a clear advantage over Novak at the moment, as he is better in the most important categories. However, Roger has no realistic chance of gaining significant ground in any of the categories, in which Novak is better. On the other hand, Novak is all but guaranteed to either equal of overtake Roger in all categories, in which Roger is currently better. Remember, in this section, we operate under the premise of Rafa not winning anymore majors, otherwise Rafa is beating Roger in the GOAT race himself.
Discussion. Rafa and Roger are currently co-GOATs. Rafa has a chance of breaking that tie and becoming the GOAT, as opposed to Roger. Roger's best hope is for Rafa to stop winning. Roger is currently better than Novak. If Rafa stops winning, Novak will overtake Roger in basically every category and become the GOAT himself. In summation, Roger is not the GOAT.
Honest edit: Roger is not the GOAT anymore.
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