Why do the Bookies have Nadal as the 4th favorite for the US Open ?

Leandro2045

Leandro2045

Semi-Pro
Since Moya entered his team :

2017 : Champion
2018 : Semifinal (Retirement)
2019 : Champion

The main takeaway here will always be his health, as long as his body holds up i don't see anyone taking that title from him in 2 months. (Yes even if Biden admits Djokovic)

He's the best US Open player in the entire field by some distance, over the last decade he has won half of the US Open he has entered (4/8)

3pN142J.jpg
 
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Humphrey20133

Semi-Pro
Sounds about right to me, maybe even a little too high. They did change the surface since the last time he won it. I doubt very much he wins it if he even plays it.
 
Kralingen

Kralingen

Talk Tennis Guru
If you don't bet Rafa Nadal at 6 odds for the United States Open,

you must hate money.

(in all seriousness, bet bet bet bet bet before Djokovic withdraws from the USO. The odds are going to get worse for everyone. Bookies still haven't figured out that Djoker can't play)
 
Kralingen

Kralingen

Talk Tennis Guru
9221-BFE5-897-E-46-EC-BD4-C-2-F6600-A2-E55-F.jpg

4-DB89-E7-E-7-DE9-4-A69-B907-5080-FA15-E8-C9.jpg

Then again, real ones bet on Nadal at 9 odds way back in the spring.

And I’m not even posting my biggest (by far) bet either:happydevil:
 
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Midaso240

Legend
Leandro2045 said:
Since Moya entered his team :

2017 : Champion
2018 : Semifinal (Retirement)
2019 : Champion

The main takeaway here will always be his health, as long as his body holds up i don't see anyone taking that title from him in 2 months. (Yes even if Biden admits Djokovic)

He's the best US Open player in the entire field by some distance, over the last decade he has won half of the US Open he has entered (4/8)

3pN142J.jpg
Click to expand...
LOL, Scott Morrison may have commented on Djokovic back in January but Djokovic just isn't big enough or important enough in the US for it to get all the way up to Biden
 
P

PUSB

Professional
Leandro2045 said:
Since Moya entered his team :

2017 : Champion
2018 : Semifinal (Retirement)
2019 : Champion

The main takeaway here will always be his health, as long as his body holds up i don't see anyone taking that title from him in 2 months. (Yes even if Biden admits Djokovic)

He's the best US Open player in the entire field by some distance, over the last decade he has won half of the US Open he has entered (4/8)

3pN142J.jpg
Click to expand...
Well the fact Federer is on the list renders it meaningless as he wont een be playing unless the bookies are trolling about the era. Zverev wont be playing either so i wonder when those odds were done.
Assuming Djokovic plays the Us Open on current form id have it
1. Nadal
2. Mededev
3. Djokovic
4. FAA
5. Alcaraz

FAA will be hard to knock over
 
P

pj80

Legend
Midaso240 said:
LOL, Scott Morrison may have commented on Djokovic back in January but Djokovic just isn't big enough or important enough in the US for it to get all the way up to Biden
Click to expand...
Biden doesn't do anything....it's people behind the scene who tell him what to sign and when...and they all read news. So I'm sure they would be aware of Djokovic and his desire to enter the country.
 
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Tony48

Legend
Djokovic is the safe bet. Alcaraz is still too new. Nadal is injured and has questionable form. Medvedev has been MIA since the AO.

That's why.

I actually think one of the younger players will win this one. FAA, Tsitsipas, Alcaraz, Zverev (lol, maybe not him)
 
Leandro2045

Leandro2045

Semi-Pro
Tony48 said:
Djokovic is the safe bet. Alcaraz is still too new. Nadal is injured and has questionable form. Medvedev has been MIA since the AO.

That's why.

I actually think one of the younger players will win this one. FAA, Tsitsipas, Alcaraz, Zverev (lol, maybe not him)
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The US Open is not Wimbledon

Apart from the fact that his participation is not a safe bet because of the Vaccine requirements Novak is able to lose to anyone in New York.

It's not a coincidence Stan, Murray, Medvedev, Roger & Rafa x2 have all defeated him in Finals while he only has one single defeat in 17 AO/Wimbledon finals.
 
Nostradamus

Nostradamus

Bionic Poster
Leandro2045 said:
Since Moya entered his team :

2017 : Champion
2018 : Semifinal (Retirement)
2019 : Champion

The main takeaway here will always be his health, as long as his body holds up i don't see anyone taking that title from him in 2 months. (Yes even if Biden admits Djokovic)

He's the best US Open player in the entire field by some distance, over the last decade he has won half of the US Open he has entered (4/8)

3pN142J.jpg
Click to expand...
because Rafa will get injured and he will not play US open
 
D

Deleted member 792641

Guest
Kralingen said:
9221-BFE5-897-E-46-EC-BD4-C-2-F6600-A2-E55-F.jpg

4-DB89-E7-E-7-DE9-4-A69-B907-5080-FA15-E8-C9.jpg

Then again, real ones bet on Nadal at 9 odds way back in the spring.

And I’m not even posting my biggest (by far) bet either:happydevil:
Click to expand...

Oh yes, it's happening again.

Maybe the Lambo is dead, but maybe a honda accord is still on the line?

Anyways, will be fun to come back in August and see you hype Nadal up again.

For now I'm probably taking a break till at least Rogers cup - you probably also need one LOL
 
T

Tony48

Legend
Leandro2045 said:
The US Open is not Wimbledon

Apart from the fact that his participation is not a safe bet because of the Vaccine requirements Novak is able to lose to anyone in New York.

It's not a coincidence Stan, Murray, Medvedev, Roger & Rafa x2 have all defeated him in Finals while he only has one single defeat in 17 AO/Wimbledon finals.
Click to expand...

Nothing either of us said is untrue. He's still the safe bet. Who else is a safer bet than Novak?
 
Leandro2045

Leandro2045

Semi-Pro
Tony48 said:
Nothing either of us said is untrue. He's still the safe bet. Who else is a safer bet than Novak?
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Considering he can't travel to the USA as of now i think a lot of people will fit that description.

Nothing around Novak is safe in regards to the US Open. Neither his match performances nor his legal status to enter the country.

Which is why i find it fascinating he's giving implied odds of 44% to win the tournament lmao.
 
thanovic

thanovic

Rookie
Because the bookies know that Nadal’s deficient style of play is not good enough to win on a real surface unless he has a lot of luck. I suggest getting off of the Nadal kool-aid so you can protect your mental and physical health. Watch videos of the hard court goat Djokovic instead so that you’ll know what real hard court tennis is like.
 
AgassiSuperSlam11

AgassiSuperSlam11

Professional
Interesting thread considering the blockbuster news today :eek: that didn't get much attention on TTW. I thought it would get some coverage after a short break from the usual "Big 3" overdose.
 
AgassiSuperSlam11

AgassiSuperSlam11

Professional
Rattie said:
What blockbuster news?
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I don't know if TTW has a news editor who posts articles, or an auto generated newsfeed, but there was news about top 50 players and tanking matches. Of course, some will say that this is nothing new but with so many speculative comments here about doping and tanking that when news will come out it would get some coverage. Every thread I create has 2 posters that I know will flame throw and I can't block them from my threads, Perplexed that no threads about it.
 
Rattie

Rattie

Legend
AgassiSuperSlam11 said:
I don't know if TTW has a news editor who posts articles, or an auto generated newsfeed, but there was news about top 50 players and tanking matches. Of course, some will say that this is nothing new but with so many speculative comments here about doping and tanking that when news will come out it would get some coverage. Every thread I create has 2 posters that I know will flame throw and I can't block them from my threads, Perplexed that no threads about it.
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Thanks for replying. I hadn’t heard about that. I’ll have a look on Google.
 
Hitman

Hitman

Bionic Poster
Well, Nadal fans shouldn't be complaining...this plays right into his underdog approach...perfect for Nadal.
 
Jokervich

Jokervich

Hall of Fame
helterskelter said:
The bookies always underestimate Nadal. I’m not sure why. They often overestimate Djokovic too.
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How so? He's won 4 of the last 6 slams and and 9 of the last 15 slams. He's usually around 50% to win a slam according to the odds, so backing Djokovic to win the last 15 slams would have made you a profit. So if anything, he's been underestimated.
 
H

helterskelter

G.O.A.T.
Jokervich said:
How so? He's won 4 of the last 6 slams and and 9 of the last 15 slams. He's usually around 50% to win a slam according to the odds, so backing Djokovic to win the last 15 slams would have made you a profit. So if anything, he's been underestimated.
Click to expand...

I meant at the US Open specifically. Sorry, should have said that. But they do tend to give Nadal longer odds than they should everywhere.
 
T

Tony48

Legend
Leandro2045 said:
Considering he can't travel to the USA as of now i think a lot of people will fit that description.

Nothing around Novak is safe in regards to the US Open. Neither his match performances nor his legal status to enter the country.

Which is why i find it fascinating he's giving implied odds of 44% to win the tournament lmao.
Click to expand...

The assumption is that Novak will play the U.S. Open.

You didn't answer the question. Who's a safer bet than Novak (assuming Novak plays)?
 
AgassiSuperSlam11

AgassiSuperSlam11

Professional
The US Open is the only Major that has no repeat winner since Federer won his fifth in a row in 2008. There are various reasons why nobody hasn't defended their title in 14 years. There is no clear favorite with all things considered. I want to see how good Alcaraz and his elbow holds up in the tune-up tournaments Canada/Cincy before I would make any wagers. How will Medvedev play and will Sasha recover in time? Nothing certain about Nole and Nadal as well.
 
Leandro2045

Leandro2045

Semi-Pro
Tony48 said:
The assumption is that Novak will play the U.S. Open.

You didn't answer the question. Who's a safer bet than Novak (assuming Novak plays)?
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Nadal by quite some margin, Daniil on equal terms as Novak for me. Alcaraz behind but not by much.
 
Jokervich

Jokervich

Hall of Fame
helterskelter said:
I meant at the US Open specifically. Sorry, should have said that. But they do tend to give Nadal longer odds than they should everywhere.
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Oh right. Yeah I guess they overrate him at the US Open a bit. Although he's been very consistent at the US Open. Hasn't lost at the US Open before the semi final since 2006, if we don't count the 2 non-completed matches in 2019 and 2020.
 
brewpats

brewpats

New User
pj80 said:
Biden doesn't do anything....it's people behind the scene who tell him what to sign and when...and they all read news. So I'm sure they would be aware of Djokovic and his desire to enter the country.
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Thank God the federal government is highly focused on stopping pro athletes from illegally entering the country.
 
Mustard

Mustard

Bionic Poster
brewpats said:
Thank God the federal government is highly focused on stopping pro athletes from illegally entering the country.
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The fact is, Djokovic has a choice to make. Get vaccinated and meet the requirement for entry, or stay away out of principle. Instead, he seems to expect the law to be changed for him personally. A lot of his fans certainly do.
 
brewpats

brewpats

New User
Mustard said:
The fact is, Djokovic has a choice to make. Get vaccinated and meet the requirement for entry, or stay away out of principle. Instead, he seems to expect the law to be changed for him personally. A lot of his fans certainly do.
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It's not "stay away out of principle". It's stay away because of principle. He, like many, believes the long term effects of the vaccine are unknown and this, when paired with its undeniable lack of efficacy result in a no go on risk-reward. It's precisely his principles that hold him fast to what he believes is right, for his health, even though there is a negative impact to his career. All in all, the world is sooooo past this nonsense it's just laughable for the AO and USTA to be holding fast.
 
Mustard

Mustard

Bionic Poster
brewpats said:
It's not "stay away out of principle". It's stay away because of principle. He, like many, believes the long term effects of the vaccine are unknown and this, when paired with its undeniable lack of efficacy result in a no go on risk-reward. It's precisely his principles that hold him fast to what he believes is right, for his health, even though there is a negative impact to his career. All in all, the world is sooooo past this nonsense it's just laughable for the AO and USTA to be holding fast.
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So is he getting vaccinated and entering or staying unvaccinated and staying away? That's what it comes down to. That's the core of the issue, for all the waffle and rhetoric.
 
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