Let’s talk seriously about the Alcaraz jump serve

travlerajm · Dec 27, 2023

Alcaraz generates a significant fraction of his serve pop, from jumping forward into the court, and relies on extra height from the jump to increase his serve angle window into the box. He relies on elevated jump more than any other top player in history.

This is a concern for anyone expecting big things in the future for the ‘Raz.

Why? Because it’s not sustainable.

How do I know this? I used to have similar jump serve myself. I started playing competitive tennis at age 15. I rode my explosive jump serve as my best shot. It gave me a serving advantage over taller opponents, despite my Carlitosian height.

Unfortunately, my serve prowess peaked at age 20.

30 years later, every other part of my game is much improved from 30 years of practice. But my serve is several levels worse. Since an offensive serve is the most important shot in tennis, my overall level isn’t better.

I expect the same pattern to happen with Carlos. His groundy game will improve, but his results will deteriorate because the jump serve is unsustainable. It taxes the legs too much to be viable as you age.

Rosstour · Dec 27, 2023

You mean he won't be able to serve as hard when he's your age? I think that will be a trade worth making. lol

travlerajm · Dec 27, 2023

Rosstour said:
You mean he won't be able to serve as hard when he's your age? I think that will be a trade worth making. lol

I mean that he won’t be able to serve as well or as reliably over a best-of-5 match at age 22 as he could at age 20. Since margins in pro tennis are small, it will impact his results.

Rosstour · Dec 27, 2023

travlerajm said:
I mean that he won’t be able to serve as well or as reliably over a best-of-5 match at age 22 as he could at age 20. Since margins in pro tennis are small, it will impact his results.

And your evidence for this conclusion is...yourself?

You are talking about a world class athlete, already one of the best to ever do it.

tennis24x7 · Dec 27, 2023

Rosstour said:
And your evidence for this conclusion is...yourself?

Exactly. Did you also win major tournaments before your descendancy?

travlerajm · Dec 27, 2023

Rosstour said:
And your evidence for this conclusion is...yourself?

You are talking about a world class athlete, already one of the best to ever do it.

Firsthand evidence is always the most conclusive.

As I have 35 years of firsthand experience with the effects of aging on a once-proud jump serve, I am uniquely qualified to analyze it.

ALCARAZWON · Dec 27, 2023

Agassi leaped bigly for his serve, and had a great kick serve.

Jonesy · Dec 27, 2023

So what is the solution so we can send a letter to Ferrero and change his serve for Carlitos good? Should he learn the underarm slice serve?

mtommer · Dec 27, 2023

travlerajm said:
Alcaraz generates a significant fraction of his serve pop, from jumping forward into the court, and relies on extra height from the jump to increase his serve angle window into the box. He relies on elevated jump more than any other top player in history.

You think so? I went and watched some highlights. I didn't really see anything from his motion that I didn't see from any of his opponents.

Rosstour · Dec 27, 2023

travlerajm said:
Firsthand evidence is always the most conclusive.

As I have 35 years of firsthand experience with the effects of aging on a once-proud jump serve, I am uniquely qualified to analyze it.

Honestly dude you're full of it.

Purestriker · Dec 27, 2023

travlerajm said:
Alcaraz generates a significant fraction of his serve pop, from jumping forward into the court, and relies on extra height from the jump to increase his serve angle window into the box. He relies on elevated jump more than any other top player in history.

This is a concern for anyone expecting big things in the future for the ‘Raz.

Why? Because it’s not sustainable.

How do I know this? I used to have similar jump serve myself. I started playing competitive tennis at age 15. I rode my explosive jump serve as my best shot. It gave me a serving advantage over taller opponents, despite my Carlitosian height.

Unfortunately, my serve prowess peaked at age 20.

30 years later, every other part of my game is much improved from 30 years of practice. But my serve is several levels worse. Since an offensive serve is the most important shot in tennis, my overall level isn’t better.

I expect the same pattern to happen with Carlos. His groundy game will improve, but his results will deteriorate because the jump serve is unsustainable. It taxes the legs too much to be viable as you age.

Your serve being compared to Carlos' serve is not something that I had on my TTW bingo card.

That said, I think his overall health in general is a concern. He cannot seem to keep from getting injured. Hopefully that changes this year, but until then it has to be a concern.

Vincent-C · Dec 27, 2023

reminds me of Raffers

Purestriker · Dec 27, 2023

Rosstour said:
And your evidence for this conclusion is...yourself?

You are talking about a world class athlete, already one of the best to ever do it.

He has faced MEP without that jump serve. That has to count for something.

travlerajm · Dec 27, 2023

Purestriker said:
Your serve being compared to Carlos' serve is not something that I had on my TTW bingo card.

That said, I think his overall health in general is a concern. He cannot seem to keep from getting injured. Hopefully that changes this year, but until then it has to be a concern.

I actually did have the biggest serve around for my height in my day. I was one Tanya Harding knee job away from making the varsity on the #1 ranked D1 team.

travlerajm · Dec 27, 2023

Purestriker said:
He has faced MEP without that jump serve. That has to count for something.

Not only that, I fruit ninja’d it for most of the first two matches.

Olli Jokinen · Dec 27, 2023

travlerajm said:
I mean that he won’t be able to serve as well or as reliably over a best-of-5 match at age 22 as he could at age 20. Since margins in pro tennis are small, it will impact his results.

Federer relied on his jump and his serve was pretty good even after 20.

AnyPUG · Dec 27, 2023

OP makes a valid point. Imo, Alca will revolutionize underhand drop shot serve and make it a contender on the tour.

Vincent-C · Dec 27, 2023

He's won his last Major.

travlerajm · Dec 27, 2023

Olli Jokinen said:
Federer relied on his jump and his serve was pretty good even after 20.

Comparing the jump height on Federer’s serve to Alcaraz’s is like saying he’s a good tall server like Kevin Anderson.

Olli Jokinen · Dec 27, 2023

travlerajm said:
Comparing the jump height on Federer’s serve to Alcaraz’s is like saying he’s a good tall server like Kevin Anderson.

I disagree. By the way, fed is only about 4 cm taller than Alcaraz.
Federer's jump:

Alcaraz' jump:

Huge difference? Not at all.

travlerajm · Dec 27, 2023

Olli Jokinen said:
I disagree. By the way, fed is only about 4 cm taller than Alcaraz.
Federer's jump:

Alcaraz' jump:

Huge difference? Not at all.

Looks like more than 4cm difference.

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AleYeah · Dec 27, 2023

Not sustainable? Who cares? Make your mark and craft your legacy while you have a chance.

Olli Jokinen · Dec 27, 2023

travlerajm said:
Looks like more than 4cm difference.

[/url]

So still pics with different phases of impact is your documentation? Look at the videos.

Oh, here's Roger in the air: https://www.pinterest.dk/pin/382243087134571226/

Rosstour · Dec 27, 2023

Olli Jokinen said:
So still pics with different phases of impact is your documentation? Look at the videos.

Oh, here's Roger in the air: https://www.pinterest.dk/pin/382243087134571226/

Love how he already looks 40 in that picture

Purestriker · Dec 27, 2023

travlerajm said:
Not only that, I fruit ninja’d it for most of the first two matches.

merwy · Dec 27, 2023

Sorry but this seems like nonsense. You provide no explanation for why you think that his serve wil deteriorate, except for the fact that it apparently happened to you. I'm not even sure where to start a counterargument because I don't grasp the point you're making.

lim · Dec 27, 2023

This is a pointless thread nogold jumps on his serves and will be winning slams until he’s 50. Raz just needs a better physio

travlerajm · Dec 27, 2023

lim said:
This is a pointless thread nogold jumps on his serves and will be winning slams until he’s 50. Raz just needs a better physio

Yes. On further review, Nole jumps exactly as high as Alcaraz.

NeutralFan · Dec 27, 2023

Rosstour said:
And your evidence for this conclusion is...yourself?

You are talking about a world class athlete, already one of the best to ever do it.

Dude was already hitting 130kmph. He will be fine if serve speed lowers by 10 kmph and he learns to hit the spots. Op assumes Alcaraz and his team won't make any adjustments if this serve doesn't work after 20 lol. Even Andre's serve improved in later years and Carlos is taller than him. If anything his serve will improve with age.

Wander · Dec 28, 2023

How many cases do we know of of pro players losing their serve in their 20s? Or even the serve irreversibly declining at such a young age? It seems exceedingly rare in general.

mahatma · Dec 28, 2023

travlerajm · Dec 28, 2023

Wander said:
How many cases do we know of of pro players losing their serve in their 20s? Or even the serve irreversibly declining at such a young age? It seems exceedingly rare in general.

ARod serve peaked age 21.
Boom Boom serve peaked age 20.
Scud serve peaked age 20.
Baggy serve peaked age 19.

vokazu · Dec 28, 2023

All top ATP players jump when they serve, except Suresh, he's an anomaly. That's why he's still on the Tour.

jxs653 · Dec 28, 2023

travlerajm said:
It taxes the legs too much to be viable as you age.

I'd say it taxes his left hip.

ALCARAZWON · Dec 28, 2023

Agassi outlasted most of his peers (retired at age 36), and he had that vicious leapfrog service action.
And I know people will say he extended his career by being semi-retired in 1997 or by skipping the AO until 1995, but he played WAY more matches than most of his peers because he went deep into events regularly..... and he never missed a US Open.
And even though Agassi "took the ball early" he didn't get cheap points with his serve, and he didn't volley much, so he played a taxing style of tennis.
And I'd say Alcaraz has a more athletic body than Agassi, without doubt.

tudwell · Dec 28, 2023

You’ve mentioned this a few times but I’m skeptical. I’d love to see actual data, if it exists. How far he comes off the court on average compared to other players – and then also the correlation between serve jump height and early serve decline. Anything else is really just people seeing what they want to see, or are primed to see.

To my eye, he does seem to jump higher than most while serving but I also haven’t seen most ATP players serving in court-level super slow-mo.

jm1980 · Dec 28, 2023

From what I've seen, I don't think he jumps noticeably higher than other players

Also, something that happened to you gives you one data point. No reason to think a world class athlete, with access to the best physios money can buy will run into the same problems

Vincent-C · Dec 28, 2023

jm1980 said:
From what I've seen, I don't think he jumps noticeably higher than other players

Also, something that happened to you gives you one data point. No reason to think a world class athlete, with access to the best physios money can buy will run into the same problems

Don't forget "better nutrition".

Olli Jokinen · Dec 28, 2023

travlerajm said:
ARod serve peaked age 21.
Boom Boom serve peaked age 20.
Scud serve peaked age 20.
Baggy serve peaked age 19.

Could you back that up with some kind of data? Because Roddick serve peaked in 2008, when he was 26.
Yes, here's the statistic: https://www.ultimatetennisstatistics.com/playerProfile?playerId=4053&tab=statistics&season=2012

Shaolin · Dec 28, 2023

He's only jumping that high because TTW lists him as 5'6 now. Poor man has a complex.

Dwell · Dec 28, 2023

let him jump

norcal · Dec 28, 2023

The real question here is can Carlos beat MEP (without jumping)?

Baseline_Bungle · Dec 28, 2023

travlerajm said:
Alcaraz generates a significant fraction of his serve pop, from jumping forward into the court, and relies on extra height from the jump to increase his serve angle window into the box. He relies on elevated jump more than any other top player in history.

This is a concern for anyone expecting big things in the future for the ‘Raz.

Why? Because it’s not sustainable.

How do I know this? I used to have similar jump serve myself. I started playing competitive tennis at age 15. I rode my explosive jump serve as my best shot. It gave me a serving advantage over taller opponents, despite my Carlitosian height.

Unfortunately, my serve prowess peaked at age 20.

30 years later, every other part of my game is much improved from 30 years of practice. But my serve is several levels worse. Since an offensive serve is the most important shot in tennis, my overall level isn’t better.

I expect the same pattern to happen with Carlos. His groundy game will improve, but his results will deteriorate because the jump serve is unsustainable. It taxes the legs too much to be viable as you age.

I'm sorry but this is laughable. Don't take it personally, but how can you make any claim about a top pro by comparing him to a club player (in this case, yourself) who started playing competitively at FIFTEEN!?!? (gotta start a good 8-10 years earlier nowadays if you wanna make a living in this sport...)

Second of all, there is nothing all that unusual about Ratz's serve motion. He may hop a tiny bit more than most, thanks to his inhuman lower body explosiveness (...), but EVERY SINGLE player jumps. Show me one ATP pro who doesn't have both feet in the air at contact, and who doesn't land inside the court, and I will stand corrected.

True, huge guys like Isner or Karlovic exert less of an effort than Ratz to serve at 225, and that's why they are often able to remain competitive until a very old age. But from here to say that his serve will spell his demise is ridiculous. Besides, he doesn't need to be Isner. In order to dictate play and remain a dominant force on the tour, he simply needs to have an above average first serve and knock guys far off the court with his second-serve kicker.

And speaking of ACTUAL jump serves... BB is still going strong at 44

Kralingen · Dec 28, 2023

I think the bigger question is whether he can sustain such an explosion-heavy, vicious movement style. He seems to brute force a lot of points and uses speed and explosiveness to compensate for timing and precision.

The serve isn't that concerning, the baseline game is where I am a little concerned.

McGradey · Dec 28, 2023

Kralingen said:
I think the bigger question is whether he can sustain such an explosion-heavy, vicious movement style. He seems to brute force a lot of points and uses speed and explosiveness to compensate for timing and precision.

The serve isn't that concerning, the baseline game is where I am a little concerned.

I agree. Carl’s longevity challenge will be to discover more efficient and less intensive ways of winning. The Djokovic way.

Baseline_Bungle · Dec 28, 2023

Kralingen said:
I think the bigger question is whether he can sustain such an explosion-heavy, vicious movement style. He seems to brute force a lot of points and uses speed and explosiveness to compensate for timing and precision.

The serve isn't that concerning, the baseline game is where I am a little concerned.

McGradey said:
I agree. Carl’s longevity challenge will be to discover more efficient and less intensive ways of winning. The Djokovic way.

It's quite possible, but we heard the same exact chatter 20 years ago with his predecessor. That was also 22 slams ago...

If the boys at the lab keep up their good work, I see no reason for Alca-holics to get alarmed.

nolefam_2024 · Dec 28, 2023

Carlos is very young. I see very little to worry right now.
Best example for me is Nadal. His game also was based on speed in early age. But now it's more about dominating and first strike tennis.

Kralingen · Dec 28, 2023

Baseline_Bungle said:
It's quite possible, but we heard the same exact chatter 20 years ago with his predecessor. That was also 22 slams ago...

If the boys at the lab keep up their good work, I see no reason for Alca-holics to get alarmed.

Dr. Cotorro is on the case so nothing is out of the realm of possibility.

That said, that earlier model suffered a hell of a lot of wear and tear over the years... and also had, to my eye at least, a smoother swing pattern and more stable footwork. Obviously he was the road runner performing amazing feats of athletic wonder for years, but his movements seem less forced, more natural, to me.

Carlos does play a more attacking style and loves to come to net though so perhaps he can avoid wear and tear by doing that.

travlerajm · Dec 28, 2023

Olli Jokinen said:
Could you back that up with some kind of data? Because Roddick serve peaked in 2008, when he was 26.
Yes, here's the statistic: https://www.ultimatetennisstatistics.com/playerProfile?playerId=4053&tab=statistics&season=2012

Roddick’s serve did not peak in 2008.

You are not factoring in that conditions and opponent equipment and opponent return skills were progressively evolving to favor serving stats during Roddick’s career.

In 2003, the 50th ranked server on atp leaderboard has 253 serve rating. By 2008 it had increased to 265.

If we take serve rating stats from the atp site, and then calculate a “serve rating over average” stat by subtracting the rating for the 50th ranked server to normalize for era (and smooth the noisy results with a 3-year average), then Roddick’s serve rating over average peaked at +43 in 2004 (his best two single-year net serve ratings were 2003 and 2005).

For reference, Roddick’s net serve rating averaged about +40 over his prime years in his 20s, until his serve level fell off a cliff after 2010.

Bambooman · Dec 28, 2023

travlerajm said:
I mean that he won’t be able to serve as well or as reliably over a best-of-5 match at age 22 as he could at age 20. Since margins in pro tennis are small, it will impact his results.

The body peaks later. He's good for at least 10 years of leaping.

Let’s talk seriously about the Alcaraz jump serve

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