AO contenders 2010 preview

Halba

Halba

Hall of Fame
#1. Federer. Record breaking slam champ. he will have trained hard in dubai base before landing. However with continual lack of match play it is doubtful whether he can regain his form quick enough. Others have belief now, but he is always certain of a relatively weak draw till the quarters or semis...

#2. Del potro. 2nd favourite. If he can get to #4 rank by AO, he should avoid the top guys until Semis. Has belief in crunch situations backed up by the 2nd best serve on tour(right up there with soderling).

#3. Djokovic- 3rd favourite. Form player of the tail end of 2009 with only two losses(davydenko and soderling). Has the belief and should be better prepared this time for the heat. Occasionally leaks unforced errors and GS form is patchy.

#4. Murray - 4th favourite. Form very patchy backed up by personal off court break up issues. Still tough to beat on a hard court.

#5 Nadal - 5th favourite. Is on the slide. Shots lack penetration. hopefully an intense off season fine tunes his shot making ability.

#6 Davydenko - 6th fav. Definitely back to peak form. is a major worry for all the guys above. No one wants to draw this guy in their quarter.

#7 Soderling - Definitely tough to beat with his serve.

Others : Monfils, Tsonga, Verdasco, can impress from time to time

Roddick not in contention IMHO as hasn't had any match play of any kind. Still injured.
 
cucio

cucio

Legend
#1. Gulbis. All he has to do is blast the ball with all his might and hope it clears the net and bounces within the court during 21 straight sets. Statistically it is bound to happen, sooner or later.
 
Love Game

Love Game

Talk Tennis Guru
This thread belongs in the General Discussion Forum, because it's about an event that will not happen until January 2010 multiple weeks (over a month) from now.

This is the Pro Match Results Forum

There are no RESULTS in this thread, because it is asking for GENERAL DISCUSSION ... ergo the General Discussion Forum.
 
TMCW140

TMCW140

Hall of Fame
cucio said:
#1. Gulbis. All he has to do is blast the ball with all his might and hope it clears the net and bounces within the court during 21 straight sets. Statistically it is bound to happen, sooner or later.
Click to expand...

YES 10 characters
 
A

Anaconda

Hall of Fame
Monfils is too inconsistent - but could make a run if he stops playing defensive and starts playing the 'big' game we know he can play. Maybe he is scared of losing the match on his racket.

Tsonga needs to get the balance just right, and play miracle tennis at the same time, like in 2008. But i don't think he will play at that level again, but who knows.

Verdasco is not a contender, he could be if he doesn't drop his concentration and stops choking and throwing in double faults left, right and centre in pressure moments.

I don't think Roddick is a contender, i don't think he will even play the event. But analysists said that last year and he made the semi's.

Why did the OP put Davydenko 6th? He will bow out early like he does in most Grand Slams.
 
matchmaker

matchmaker

Hall of Fame
cucio said:
#1. Gulbis. All he has to do is blast the ball with all his might and hope it clears the net and bounces within the court during 21 straight sets. Statistically it is bound to happen, sooner or later.
Click to expand...

You have just given a very apt description of Robin Soderling strategy.

If it works for the Soder, it might work for Gulby.
 
M

Michael Bluth

Semi-Pro
Remember, at the AO there is almost always someone unexpected who pulls a great run. For all we know Berdych or Stepanek could pull Davis Cup heroics Verdasco-style and come out firing next year.
 
M

Max G.

Legend
Just a note - I think Roddick should be favored above Soderling.

Roddick has often been very consistent in Slams, going deep. Last year at Wimbledon he pulled off some great matches. He faded after that for the rest of the year, but based on his past I think we should expect him to be back in contention.

I don't think I'd put him above the top guys like Federer, Del Potro, Djokovic, Murray, and Nadal, but he's definitely above guys like Soderling, I think.
 
dlk

dlk

Hall of Fame
I think Halba has fair prediction. I might place Nadal over Murray, despite his recent injuries.
 
grafselesfan

grafselesfan

Banned
Ummm not sure. Maybe something like this:

1. Federer- almost by default as I dont know who else to call the favorite now, and he had by far the best overall slam results of anyone last year, and he is in better form than Nadal who had the 2nd best.

2. Djokovic- since he seems to be getting back in form, and is one of the best hard court players. Is a strong slam performer even if less last year than before.

3. Del Potro- since he seems to be back in form and the off season will benefit him given his fitness issues. He is also one of the best hard court players and has proven he can win a major.

4. Nadal- he is totally out of sorts right now, but the slow hard courts are a good surface for him, the off season will benefit him, and he has proven he can win a slam on hard courts.

5. Davydenko- since he seems to be hitting a peak now, although he hasnt done it in a major before.

6. Murray- he is one of the top hard court players but hasnt done it in a slam other than to some degree last years U.S Open, and he seems to be losing ground at the moment.

7. Soderling- played pretty well at the big events since the French Open surprise.

8. Verdasco- played pretty well at the TMC despite not winning a match, and obviously at last years Australian Open.

Dark horses would be Tsonga and Monfils. I see Roddick going out 4th round and sooner and dropping points and backwards in the rankings. By Wimbledon next year he will be out of the top 10 for sure if not sooner.
 
dlk

dlk

Hall of Fame
Grafselesfan, can't argue w/that either. I'm not a Nadal fan, but once he is healthy, he will return to prominence (i.e., win like 6 or 7 more majors).
 
cucio

cucio

Legend
Wow, you guys are truly harsh on Roddick, who made SF last year and gave Fed all he could handle in Wimby.

The field is getting really deep on HC, so he'll have a harder time now, but on a good day he can beat anyone, and he has improved a lot this year, there is no real reason to believe he is going to crash early (i.e. before QF) unless he has injury problems.
 
grafselesfan

grafselesfan

Banned
There is far less reason to believe he will match last years performance at the Australian Open than to believe he will crash out early. I actually respect Roddick alot and have defended him many times on this forum. However since Wimbledon he has been doing horribly, and other than grass I wouldnt be surprised if is more or less finished. How he played on hard courts the last 4-5 months of this year is more telling than how he played on hard courts the first 3 months of this year.
 
dlk

dlk

Hall of Fame
cucio said:
Wow, you guys are truly harsh on Roddick, who made SF last year and gave Fed all he could handle in Wimby.

The field is getting really deep on HC, so he'll have a harder time now, but on a good day he can beat anyone, and he has improved a lot this year, there is no real reason to believe he is going to crash early (i.e. before QF) unless he has injury problems.
Click to expand...

Wimbledon, is Roddick's only chance anymore. He's still got the serve to hang, but think he will slide on hard surfaces.
 
sheq

sheq

Professional
Well, maybe its a bit early to make predictions but according to their lately forms djokovic and del potro will be the mens to beat.

However if you look at big picture Federer and nadal are still the biggest favorites for any slam. ( ı know their current forms are terrbile especially nadal one's but with a 2 3 weeks rest following some hard working trainings they will be fine )
 
clayman2000

clayman2000

Hall of Fame
Being really honest.... in form players at this stage in the game mean nothing.

At this point last year the AO fav's would have been:

1. Murray
2. Djoker
3. Tsonga
4. Simon.

Remember Federer suked crap at Shanghai, Nadal didn't even play.

But what do you know none of those top 4 guys i listed made the semis at the AO.
 
F

flying24

Banned
clayman2000 said:
Being really honest.... in form players at this stage in the game mean nothing.

At this point last year the AO fav's would have been:

1. Murray
2. Djoker
3. Tsonga
4. Simon.

Remember Federer suked crap at Shanghai, Nadal didn't even play.

But what do you know none of those top 4 guys i listed made the semis at the AO.
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Absolutely nobody would have picked Simon as a top 4 favorite to win the Australian Open even with his good form late in 2008. Tsonga hardly anyone would have put that high either, anyway he finished last in his pool at the YEC and most top players didnt even play or pulled out of Paris when he won late in 2008. Yes Djokovic and Murray you are right on, but it is clear now Murray is a bit of a slump chump for the most part, and Djokovic is always a bit unpredictable.
 
J

Joseph L. Barrow

Professional
Halba said:
#1. Federer. Record breaking slam champ. he will have trained hard in dubai base before landing. However with continual lack of match play it is doubtful whether he can regain his form quick enough. Others have belief now, but he is always certain of a relatively weak draw till the quarters or semis...

#2. Del potro. 2nd favourite. If he can get to #4 rank by AO, he should avoid the top guys until Semis. Has belief in crunch situations backed up by the 2nd best serve on tour(right up there with soderling).

#3. Djokovic- 3rd favourite. Form player of the tail end of 2009 with only two losses(davydenko and soderling). Has the belief and should be better prepared this time for the heat. Occasionally leaks unforced errors and GS form is patchy.

#4. Murray - 4th favourite. Form very patchy backed up by personal off court break up issues. Still tough to beat on a hard court.

#5 Nadal - 5th favourite. Is on the slide. Shots lack penetration. hopefully an intense off season fine tunes his shot making ability.

#6 Davydenko - 6th fav. Definitely back to peak form. is a major worry for all the guys above. No one wants to draw this guy in their quarter.

#7 Soderling - Definitely tough to beat with his serve.

Others : Monfils, Tsonga, Verdasco, can impress from time to time

Roddick not in contention IMHO as hasn't had any match play of any kind. Still injured.
Click to expand...
I think you're putting too much stock in how they've performed in the last couple events of this year, and not enough in broader career consideration. A lot can and does change over the course of two months, an off season and the transition back to a Grand Slam.

I would rate it more along these lines:
1. Federer- poor showings at the end of this season, but even still, world #1, three-time Australian champ, has been in the last seven Slam finals.

2. Djokovic- recent Australian Open champion, has had a major resurgence in form of late (was extremely unlucky not to go to the semis at Masters Cup, though in part he had himself to blame for putting in such a terrible effort against Soderling)

2. (tie) Del Potro- won the last Slam, which was also on a hard court.

4. Nadal- though he has been decidedly unimpressive in recent times, he is still defending champion and the most proven performer in Slams next to Federer; a resurgence by him would not come as a surprise to me.

5. Murray- excellent hardcourt player, arguably the best in the world in best-of-three set tournaments (his recent relatively rough patch notwithstanding), but so far, he hasn't delivered in the Slams, hence his fifth placement.

6. Roddick- yes, he's slumped, suffered an injury and gone inactive, but one can never count Roddick out. Ultimately, in spite of what's transpired in the last two to three months, a guy like Davydenko or Soderling is nowhere near the proven Grand Slam performer Roddick is; he's shown year after year that he has what it takes to contend at the Slams, will not go away, and, given a single slip from Federer, could win any one of them aside from the French.

7. Soderling- his great run at the French showed he can deliver at the Grand Slam level. A strong hardcourt player and certainly in-form at the moment.

8. Davydenko- amazing form over the last couple months, but it just doesn't override his Grand Slam history, which is disproportionately lackluster given his performance outside them, enough to put him in front of the men ahead of him, all of whom have at the least made a Grand Slam final in the past, and five of whom have won at least one.



Oh, and I'd say your serve rankings are pretty dead wrong; objectively examine the ATP statistics over the last couple years, and it will be obvious Soderling and Del Potro do not possess the tour's best serves. Karlovic is the best server in the ATP, followed closely by the likes of Roddick and Isner.
 
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Halba

Halba

Hall of Fame
davydenko is firming considerably if he can maintain form and fitness. quite scintillating form from him in two events this year: shanghai and london.
 
N

NamRanger

G.O.A.T.
grafselesfan said:
There is far less reason to believe he will match last years performance at the Australian Open than to believe he will crash out early. I actually respect Roddick alot and have defended him many times on this forum. However since Wimbledon he has been doing horribly, and other than grass I wouldnt be surprised if is more or less finished. How he played on hard courts the last 4-5 months of this year is more telling than how he played on hard courts the first 3 months of this year.
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I think Roddick is just tired. He gave it all that Wimbledon and was both physically and mentally exhausted after that. Hopefully he'll do well at the AO, but I don't see him getting past the QF.
 
President

President

Legend
NamRanger said:
I think Roddick is just tired. He gave it all that Wimbledon and was both physically and mentally exhausted after that. Hopefully he'll do well at the AO, but I don't see him getting past the QF.
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You can't judge what Roddick's form will be like at the AO based on how he has played the last few months. It's in quite a while.

If he can get back in top shape, I can see him making the SF again. He's proven he has the game to beat Djokovic and Murray. He always has very close matches with Del Potro as well.
 
grafselesfan

grafselesfan

Banned
NamRanger said:
I think Roddick is just tired. He gave it all that Wimbledon and was both physically and mentally exhausted after that. Hopefully he'll do well at the AO, but I don't see him getting past the QF.
Click to expand...

Perhaps. We will see. I would like to see him come back strong and stay in the mix. My personal feeling was the Wimbledon final took a bit of his heart away though.
 
C

Cloudy

Semi-Pro
clayman2000 said:
Being really honest.... in form players at this stage in the game mean nothing.

At this point last year the AO fav's would have been:

1. Murray
2. Djoker
3. Tsonga
4. Simon.

Remember Federer suked crap at Shanghai, Nadal didn't even play.

But what do you know none of those top 4 guys i listed made the semis at the AO.
Click to expand...

did anyone really favourite Simon for AO?! come on
 
kishnabe

kishnabe

Talk Tennis Guru
Tsonga if he decides to wake up like in 2008. Roddick for sentimental reasons. Federer and Nadal obviously know when to bring it.
 
AM95

AM95

Hall of Fame
cucio said:
#1. Gulbis. All he has to do is blast the ball with all his might and hope it clears the net and bounces within the court during 21 straight sets. Statistically it is bound to happen, sooner or later.
Click to expand...

id like to see gulby make it to the R16 or QF
 
tacou

tacou

G.O.A.T.
everyone always says Roddick is done and he never is. his game is just as physically taxing as Roger's and much easier to "figure out", and yet he's top 10 year in, year out. I say he makes 4th round minimum.

Murray, Davydenko and Nadal all have an off season to contend with, for some this will benefit while I bet Davy would like to play right now.

Who knows what guys like Monfils and Simon will do? They could lose 2nd round or be in top form.

I just think it's too far to tell, I'll wait until some warm ups have been played to make a prediction.
 
grafselesfan

grafselesfan

Banned
President said:
You can't judge what Roddick's form will be like at the AO based on how he has played the last few months. It's in quite a while.

If he can get back in top shape, I can see him making the SF again. He's proven he has the game to beat Djokovic and Murray. He always has very close matches with Del Potro as well.
Click to expand...

Djokovic has refound his mojo somewhat IMO. I dont see him struggling the way he was when losing repeatedly to Roddick, and I also have my doubts about Roddick getting back to his pre-Wimbledon form. Roddick did beat Murray on grass, but that isnt the same thing as on hard courts at all.
 
Buckethead

Buckethead

Banned
cucio said:
#1. Gulbis. All he has to do is blast the ball with all his might and hope it clears the net and bounces within the court during 21 straight sets. Statistically it is bound to happen, sooner or later.
Click to expand...

I doubt it,even if he's the most talented one out side top 10.He needs to return better,a way better,have better foot work(a lot better),have an inside out flat forehand,be much more consistent,and forget about the prostitutes and parties hahaha,then he can win,and i'd like to see him send a couple top 10 players home earlier such as Murray,Nadal.
 
I

IvanisevicServe

Banned
At this point I would favor Del Potro. He's showing no chinks in the armor anymore...although perhaps the heat will get to him in Australia, since he's such a tall guy.

I have a hunch Andy Murray might do it as well.
 
A

Anaconda

Hall of Fame
grafselesfan said:
Djokovic has refound his mojo somewhat IMO. I dont see him struggling the way he was when losing repeatedly to Roddick, and I also have my doubts about Roddick getting back to his pre-Wimbledon form. Roddick did beat Murray on grass, but that isnt the same thing as on hard courts at all.
Click to expand...

You can't forget that Roddick is as good on hard as he is on grass - if he is playing well that is. But i can't see roddick doing well at the AO - he might not even play in it.

Noone can really make predictions until the warm up events atleast anyway.
 
egn

egn

Hall of Fame
So basically now we can start a thread during the off-season for the first slam and simply list almost all the players in the top 15 and say that these guys are likely to win it and discuss their game....

I laughed at the thought of Monfils being more likely to win a slam than Roddick.
 
O

OleNole

Rookie
No one has mentioned Gonzalez, who seems to always play his best Down Under. I'm not saying I think he's going to win, but I'd pick him before anyone outside the top 5 save for Cilic.
 
A

Anaconda

Hall of Fame
OleNole said:
No one has mentioned Gonzalez, who seems to always play his best Down Under. I'm not saying I think he's going to win, but I'd pick him before anyone outside the top 5 save for Cilic.
Click to expand...

It's all about consistency - and how well his forehand is playing at the time. If he gets hot then he could be counted as a contender i suppose.
 
grafselesfan

grafselesfan

Banned
Anaconda said:
You can't forget that Roddick is as good on hard as he is on grass - if he is playing well that is. But i can't see roddick doing well at the AO - he might not even play in it.

Noone can really make predictions until the warm up events atleast anyway.
Click to expand...

That was true of Pete Sampras too until he got older, then he morphed into something of a grass court specialist. I think we are seeing the same thing happening to Roddick now. The only difference Roddick in that state wont win a several more Wimbledons, and reach another few U.S Open finals the way Sampras did. I think Roddick will mostly have results on grass from now on, and his main career goal will be to win a Wimbledon before he retires. He will have some on and off decent results on hard courts, but he wont be a regular contender on them anyway IMO. Anyway the main key about what I said is Murray is alot better on hard courts than he is on grass still at this point.
 
A

Anaconda

Hall of Fame
grafselesfan said:
That was true of Pete Sampras too until he got older, then he morphed into something of a grass court specialist. I think we are seeing the same thing happening to Roddick now. The only difference Roddick in that state wont win a several more Wimbledons, and reach another few U.S Open finals the way Sampras did. I think Roddick will mostly have results on grass from now on, and his main career goal will be to win a Wimbledon before he retires. He will have some on and off decent results on hard courts, but he wont be a regular contender on them anyway IMO. Anyway the main key about what I said is Murray is alot better on hard courts than he is on grass still at this point.
Click to expand...

Sure, Roddick would rather have a wimbledon title than an AO title. Maybe he only has eyes for Wimbledon and will try to do as well as he can on the grass courts. US open is his second best chance to take a slam IMO.

He may win a few titles on hard - maybe sneak a masters. (big maybe though)

I have a gut feeling that it will be a Federer v Murray final, but i fail and grand slam final predictions.
 
grafselesfan

grafselesfan

Banned
Anaconda said:
Sure, Roddick would rather have a wimbledon title than an AO title. Maybe he only has eyes for Wimbledon and will try to do as well as he can on the grass courts. US open is his second best chance to take a slam IMO.

He may win a few titles on hard - maybe sneak a masters. (big maybe though)

I have a gut feeling that it will be a Federer v Murray final, but i fail and grand slam final predictions.
Click to expand...

If it were a Federer vs Murray final I think Federer would definitely win. Federer has won his last 2 best of 3 set matches with Murray, and Murray's chances vs Federer in a slam are just a whole lot less than a best of 3. I think Federer is someone Murray will have to avoid to win a slam. The guys with the best chance to beat Federer at the Australian Open in order I think would be:

1. Del Potro- pretty obvious now he is a bad matchup for Roger and gets up bigtime to play him.

2. Djokovic- often plays Roger tough these days.

3. Nadal- yeah I know how much he is struggling but still it is Nadal vs Federer, their history means something, even if probably less right now given Nadal's form.
 
A

Anaconda

Hall of Fame
grafselesfan said:
If it were a Federer vs Murray final I think Federer would definitely win. Federer has won his last 2 best of 3 set matches with Murray, and Murray's chances vs Federer in a slam are just a whole lot less than a best of 3. I think Federer is someone Murray will have to avoid to win a slam. The guys with the best chance to beat Federer at the Australian Open in order I think would be:

1. Del Potro- pretty obvious now he is a bad matchup for Roger and gets up bigtime to play him.

2. Djokovic- often plays Roger tough these days.

3. Nadal- yeah I know how much he is struggling but still it is Nadal vs Federer, their history means something, even if probably less right now given Nadal's form.
Click to expand...

Thing is though, Nadal was still in a so-called 'slump' and he made the US open semis and still qualified for the ATP world tour finals. A few weeks rest will do him the world of good.

JMDP is a beast and will be ready to unleash!!!

djokovic is back to playing very good tennis again.
 
grafselesfan

grafselesfan

Banned
Anaconda said:
Thing is though, Nadal was still in a so-called 'slump' and he made the US open semis and still qualified for the ATP world tour finals. A few weeks rest will do him the world of good.

JMDP is a beast and will be ready to unleash!!!

djokovic is back to playing very good tennis again.
Click to expand...

I definitely expect and hope Nadal to come out of the gates in 2010 looking alot better than he did to end last year. He will have to even be a serious threat on hard courts. Yeah he still reached late rounds even in his awful late 2009 form but he was mauled by the top guys he played, not even anywhere near beating one of them.

I agree on JMDP and Djokovic.
 
A

Anaconda

Hall of Fame
grafselesfan said:
I definitely expect and hope Nadal to come out of the gates in 2010 looking alot better than he did to end last year. He will have to even be a serious threat on hard courts. Yeah he still reached late rounds even in his awful late 2009 form but he was mauled by the top guys he played, not even anywhere near beating one of them.

I agree on JMDP and Djokovic.
Click to expand...

All i know is that the Australian Open 2010 will be a really open slam.
 
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