I do understand that point. I only meant that the notion tends to be true (amazingly so) in the face of so many external factors such as the ones you mention. All the complications tend to work together to fit the expected outcome. It really is only amazing at first, but it is quite logical when you spend some time with it.
You might want to know what you're talking about before you pretend to be "logical." Yes, it's to be expected that an increase in population would lead to a stronger field of talent, provided that other relevant variables remain more or less the same. But of course these variables don't stay the same in the real world, and there isn't a single controlled experiment out there that can begin to simulate the complex roles all these variables play in player development. Nor is there a scientific way to gauge which player is "better."
I'm not saying h2h should not be considered, I'm only saying h2h is double-counting when the two players involved are the most likely to win the event, since the loser is anyways deprived of the title by the winner.
I don't know why you keep repeating this point. I do see what you're saying, I just disagree. Again ranking points or tournament finishes don't say anything about how a certain player fared against another or even against a certain field, hence my argument that H2Hs count in their own ways that have little to do with titles. The reason why I haven't elaborated on this further is because I want to focus on the surface/racquet/coaching/net/inter-era issues.
no, net% may be the best way to measure success at the net , but not the quality of net play ..see below
I've already addressed the quality part, and will again in more depth below. And my only point here was that the net % is the only quantifiable/objective way to measure success at the net, not that it is the end-all measure of net play.
1. again, you are placing too much stock on the net success %s. jmac was in mid-50s % at the net in the USO 84 SF vs connors and he was volleying as well as anyone possibly has , in that match ( that is including a serve % of more than 60%, which wasn't that common for mac , even more so over a long match )
I'm well aware that the net success %s of even a Mac or Edberg were often mediocre, and in fact I alluded to this and acknowledged the limitations in my previous post.
I think you missed the point I was trying to make. Again, let's assume that Fed's %s are pretty high because he's had the advantage of relatively easy approaches. Then imagine, again for the sake of argument, the likes of Mac, Edberg, Pete and Rafter doing the same, off the exact same approaches. Isn't it safe to think that these guys would do at least as well at the net against Rafa, or anyone else? Then let's picture them attacking with more authority, which would naturally bring down their %s. But how much? I think you'll agree that all the way down to 30-40% is too low to pass the laugh test, given how much difficulty even the Big Four of Rafa, Fed, Djoko and Murray have had against journeymen like Kendrick, Suzuki and Petzschner or part-time S&Vers like Haas and Fish. Which leaves us with... around 50% as a conservative estimate, about the same as Mac's own % in the '84 USO SF! What a coincidence!
And speaking of serve %s, you might have seen me point out that this and just about every other service stat have seen an uptick since the '90s. I haven't done a detailed analysis of the serve %s like I did the %s of service games won, but from what I've seen players today are serving more 1st serves and holding serve with more ease than perhaps ever. People usually ignore this service part of the equation when they parrot the familiar talking points about how much the modern racquet has shifted the game in favor of the returner. And I'm pretty sure Mac would likewise benefit and serve higher %s today. (By what degree I can't say. My comparison of the '90s and the '00s showed marginal differences, but unfortunately the '80s stats aren't readily available. My guess is that Mac's benefits would be greater still, since the %s of unreturned serves often show a rather stark contrast between the '80s and the '90s/'00s.)
2. coming back to the fedal example, forget the %s for a second, you know when you watched the RG 2008 final that fed's approaches and net play burnt him *completely* in that match. I don't need a 18/42 at the net stat to tell me that , do I ?
Yeah, but 43% isn't a great success rate by any standards. Not sure what your point is here. I never claimed or implied that the numbers tell the whole story.
3. coming to 08 wimbledon, do you really recall that match well ? Well, I do ... federer came in on quite a few poor approaches and got burnt on many occasions, flubbed some easy volleys as well . He did get some free points off strong/powerful serves/FHs, but that's it.
pity for fed though that a pretty good approach shot at one of the most crucial moments resulted in that amazing passing shot from nadal to give nadal a MP ( 4th set TB )
I do too, and it's probably the most memorable match I remember watching in full. I was glued to my TV all day. (NBC by some miracle stuck with the whole match, through all the rain delays.)
And yes, Fed did have some questionable forays to the net, but
despite that he still won 42/75 or 56% of his net points, against one of the all-time great passers in Rafa! That says something about the viability of net-rushing in this day and age, no?
4. one more thing, atleast at Wimbledon, the errors forced by the serve when the SnVer came to the net were not being counted as net approaches, which IMO is not correct. Part of the reason for the error being forced is the SnVer being at the net. I'm not talking about aces or service winners here . I'm talking about when the returner got a fair chunk of the racquet at the ball.
This obviously impacts the success of the former generations at the net far more since they SnVed far more.
see examples of the net stats of the fed-sampras match in wimbledon 2001, sampras-agassi match in wimbledon 99 etc etc.
I could link to this if you don't have those stats.
I've seen the stats, and also I've noticed that Wimby in recent years has been rather generous on the F/UFE ratio. But this isn't very relevant to our discussion, because I meant to exclude grass anyway (I misspoke earlier--see below) and I believe most stats taken by krosero, Moose and slice serve ace take this into account.
5. the # of net approaches isn't far off from sampras'/becker's off clay ? well, how about that those matches you were mentioning were the lengthier ones ? Taking no of net approaches/total no of points in the match would give a better measure
My bad, I should've said grass (which of course was the S&Ver's paradise in the twosome's heyday). But my main point stands: Fed's # of approaches often isn't too far off Pete/Becker's, especially on HCs.
Here, a few examples, starting with Becker:
- 1989 FO SF, 5 sets, 43/70 net points won (61%), 70 approaches out of 172 total service points (41%)
- 1989 USO F, 4 sets, 55/104 (53%), 104/143 (73%)
- 1991 AO F, 4 sets, 23/48 (48%), 48/122 (39%)
Of course these net approaches didn't always happen on service points, but adding in the opponent's total would give a more incomplete picture, hence the middle ground.
And some of Pete's numbers:
- 1990 USO SF, 4 sets, 40/61 (66%), 61/108 (56%) [as an aside Mac won 60/104 or 58% of his net points and approached 104 out of 116 service points for a whopping 90%]
- 1990 USO F, 3 sets, 39/62 (63%), 62/93 (67%)
- 1992 FO QF, 3 sets, 12/19 (63%), 19/95 (20%, almost half less than Agassi's 37%!)
- 1995 AO F, 4 sets, 35/63 (56%), 63/139 (45%)
- 1995 USO F, 4 sets, 43/59 (73%), 59/121 (49%)
- 1995 DC F against Chesnokov, 5 sets, 32/49 (65%) at 5-6 in the 4th, 153 total service points
- 1996 YEC F, 5 sets, 74/99 approaches (75%) at 3-4 in the 5th
I excluded Pete's post-'97 matches as they indeed confirm the common knowledge that he came in more late in his career, but here's a fun bonus:
- 2002 USO F, 4 sets, 60/105 (57%), 105/152 (69%)
So not only did Pete approach the net more at this reportedly 1st USO with slowed-down DecoTurf, he actually went on to win the whole thing! Must've been mighty harder having to volley on this green sandpaper! (I know, I know. Insufficient sample.)
As you can see these numbers aren't that different from some of Fed's own, sometimes even lower in total net approaches. And my response to your point #1 explains why this is telling.
6. attacking at the net vs rafa is suicidal strategy ? well, I wouldn't say so.
I'd put it as unless you come in behind good approach shots and or playing very well at the net, it is suicide. same vs agassi , hewitt, connors, borg, lendl ( off grass ) , even federer himself.
Of course that's true against just about every great baseliner. Anyway I'm glad we agree that the common wisdom about Rafa being this indestructible kryptonite against net-rushers is overblown.