You are absolutely correct, I just wanted to get a feedback on the strokes and not his chances. I don't believe it is possible to make any conclusions based on a few short videos of point play/rallies or tennis ball machine regardless of the player. At the end of the day how can you make any assumptions without considering mental game and etc. But then again if someone brought up any kind of physical deficiencies it might be a different story but I don't think it is applicable in this case.
I agree that there are only so many spots on the podium but I think at the end of the day other factors will separate those kids: mental strength, talent and such.
I only asked about size factor because I wanted to get your opinion first hands as you mentioned your son is ranked Top 100 National and you mentioned he is somewhat smaller.
We do play a handfull of state tournaments( less than 10) a year ranging from state L4 through L1 within his range group and I think he was over powered once while playing a kid about 2 years older than him. During summer time, when soccer season is off, for about 2 and half months he goes to tennis camp and plays 12-15 hours a week where he has a chance to hit with very top juniors in the region and nationally ranked who are home schooled and my observation is different than yours. It is clear to me physical size does matter a lot as they just over power smaller kids. I also took time to watch a couple U12 Boys National tournaments in our area and watched a lot of matches just to see how those kids play real matches. I think you are looking at a larger population of players while I'm concentrating at the very top kids. Not to mention names but if you pull National ranking from say December of 2016 you'll see who is on the top, I assume you know those kids ( some of them 6+ ft tall already). The outcome of the tournament was those bigger size kids pretty much punished smaller kids. I hope you also know who won U12 Boys 2016 Orange Bowl and while he is under 6ft he is certainly physically strong kid.
Just my observation though.
I will give my son's recent personal experience.
1. Lost U12 match at National tourney during Thanksgiving to #1 seed who is ranked just outside of top 10 nationally. Split sets and lost in tiebreaker for 3rd set. The opponent was bigger even though he's a year younger than my son. He didn't hit a bigger ball but what he did better was he hit his spots really well. Also any short ball was punished and he also was clutch in the tiebreaker. Whereas my son wasn't able to convert consistently his own short ball opportunities.
2. Won a couple and lost a couple of U12 matches at Winter Nationals around New Years. I wasn't able to be there but was told he wasn't overpowered in these matches. Seemed like it came down to who was able to be more consistent with their heavy ball and convert short balls when opportunities presented.
3. Lost U14 match in January National tourney. Opponent was big kid turning 15 soon. Definitely got overpowered in this one. Not surprising given 2 year difference during puberty stage.
I haven't seen any of the top 10 U12 boys in person so can't say how big they are. I did see part of the U12 Orange Bowl final online. Yes the boy that won is not small. If you watch the match though, you can see he hits a nice heavy ball but not overpowering. He put his rally ball where he couldn't be hurt off it, stayed consistent, played smart tennis, and converted a high percentage of his short ball opportunities. He didn't overpower the opponent who actually looked a bit undersized to me.
What do I make from this?
1. Does size matter? Absolutely, if two players have similar skills the bigger kid will probably win. But obviously no two kids have exactly the same skills with just varying size.
2. Are there more kids at the top that are big than kids that are small? Yes
3. Are there small undersized kids also at the top? Yes just not as many as the big kids
4. Can you still make it to the top levels if you are undersized? Absolutely
A lot of these juniors have very poor point development skills. Seems like their only game plan is big serve + 1, or big return + 1 ball then just hit it where the opponent is not. That's why you see juniors play and think what the heck?
Tennis isn't just a power game where he who hits the biggest ball wins. You just have hit a big enough ball consistently enough and put it in locations where your opponent can't hurt you or locations where your opponent is uncomfortable and be able to take advantage of your opportunities off that. Also there are many ways to absorb and neutralize power if the player is skilled enough.
Or maybe I'm just another deluded tennis parent justifying his kid's limitations? I honestly don't spend a lot of time thinking about this. He just tries to get better everyday.