ATP MatchFacts: Charting Novak's Rise

djokovic2008

Hall of Fame
Novak Djokovic is having one of the most storied seasons in tennis history. Though the Serbian has stated his change in fortune is due to an increase in confidence, the RICOH ATP MatchFacts provide statistical evidence that Djokovic has improved in all facets of his game this season. With three major titles, five ATP World Tour Masters 1000 crowns and a 64-3 record, the 24 year old has been nothing short of dominant in 2011.

An area of the Serbian’s game that has greatly contributed to his ascendance to the top of the South African Airways ATP Rankings is his return. Among players on the ATP World Tour this year, Djokovic ranks in the two top in all four categories. Most notably, the World No. 1 has won 41 percent of his return games, five percent greater than the next highest success rate, shared by Andy Murray and Rafael Nadal.

“Novak absorbs pace very well on the return and he has excellent racquet control when taken out wide, which allows him to hit offensively when stretched,” explains Justin Gimelstob, ATP Board Member and tennis commentator. “He takes the return very early and thus gets it back on his opponent very quickly. His technique is flawless and thus repeatable under pressure.”

Djokovic is second to Murray in first serve return points won at 37 percent, leads all players by taking 58 percent of his second serve return points, and is second best in break point conversion percentage, at 48.

In addition to strong improvement on returns, Djokovic has beefed up his service stats, with his second serve showing the biggest gains. “No doubt, Novak's improved serve is a huge part of his improvement this year. Last year his serve was a weakness, as he wasn't getting a lot of free points and he was prone to double faults,” assesses Gimelstob.

Last year, the Serb won 52 percent of his second serve points, placing him in a tie for 21st, well behind chief rivals Nadal (ranked first with 60 percent) and Roger Federer (tied for third with 56 percent). In 2011, Djokovic has increased his percentage to 56, catapulting him to joint third with big servers Andy Roddick and John Isner and just behind leaders Nadal and Federer at 57 percent. “This year, because Novak has improved his serve technically, eliminating the hitch that developed at the top of the swing, it is holding up under pressure and so that weakness has turned into a weapon,” Gimelstob states. “That type of shift on the most important shot in tennis is huge and changes the outlook of a match, especially when the rest of Novak's game is so incredible.”

In 2010, the Belgrade native won 71 percent of his first service points to rank 37th, and has improved to 23rd this year by winning 74 percent of those points.

It is clear Djokovic has been far more impactful on serve this year compared to his previous season, winning 87 percent of his service games, five percent better than his 2010 mark. “There is no doubt by holding serve more, winning more free points, and double faulting less, it puts more pressure on his opponents,” says Gimelstob. “Novak has no other weakness and as a result, the consistent, cumulative pressure he puts on his opponents is overwhelming. He is the best mover in the sport right now and his backhand and return of serve are the best in the game currently as well.”

Yes he's great returner we all know that but those serve stats really stand out, up there with Isner and Roddick. Which means he is nearly impossible to beat when serving, returning well not to mention his groundies, defence and movement, wow.
 

jdubbs

Hall of Fame
It's the return of serve that really sets him apart. He wins 58% of opponent's first serve points? That's ridiculous.
 

Evan77

Banned
Good article. We talk too much about "who is the best at this and that". Djokovic is #1 because he is good at everything. His ROS is amazing, his BH is crazy, his FH is very powerful. His court coverage is fantastic and his moves like .... I can't even find the right word. His movement and speed are out of this world.

I think that in order to be a champion (like Nole, Rog, Rafa etc.) you have to be able to be good at all aspects of the game.
 

tennisenthusiast

Hall of Fame
I dont know how many times he did that but he toiled with Nadal with his return of serves. He hit his returns right at Nadal's feet. Did anyone observe that?
 

AhmedD

Semi-Pro
Did the same to Federer on those match points, it wasn't luck in my opinion. I mean, Federer's level did drop a bit in sets 3 and 4, but it was pretty even in the final set, both were aggressive and serving well. However, again, the return of serve did for Djokovic to pressure Federer. He has a very solid serve, return, and ground strokes. Very complete player, it would take someone like Murray to beat him. Federer has the capability if he serve smart not just focus on power, which I believe was his mistake. The smart thing to do against a good server like Djokovic in pull him off the court so he can't get a solid return that often, it'll be decent, but at least it won't put him directly into an offensive position. He recovery after the return is extremely quick too. You need to have really good cross-court forehand against him as well. Notice how in the FO 2011, the commentators mentioned that when Fed's CC FH is on, it's one of the most if not the most dangerous out there right now. He get's pace and placement, which is what I think gave him the edge over Djoker in that semifinal, plus it was hitting into Novak's weakness, he'll usually return the forehand cross court. Basically, you'd have to be extremely solid offensively, and pull Novak out of court as quick as possible and end the point, the only one to really do that this year is Federer, his combination of placement and power is just enough, it's his consistently that's lacking. Nadal has consistency, but he lacks the pace even when going for an insane angle. He needs to be mroe aggressive and flatten out the shot to give it more penetration. If only his backhand was like it was in his younger days, he would have had a better chance at winning since it penetrated more than the forehand, now sadly he just spins it in, no bite whatsoever.
 

djokovic2008

Hall of Fame
Federer commented on djokers return before they played at shanghai last year. He said that djoker catches the ball at the perfect place the sweetspot and it comes at you like at bullet.
 
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