I was wondering if Federer can overtake Nadal for the no.2 ranking by year-end, since he is been on a good run lately. Nadal has missed the Toronto and Cincinnati masters and has a lot of points to defend at the US Open. Surely, if Fed does a good showing at Cincy and wins the US Open, where he is defending a 4th round exit, it will be close. Anyone here who can do the math?
It's not impossible, but also not quite probable. Say Fed's gets another RU in Cinci. Then he's roughly 900 points behind Rafa.
Back in the days, Fed would outperform Rafa with at least 2000 points from the US to the WTF.
Now, beating Rafa with a 1000 points in this stretch (provided Fed's get a RU in Cinci)? I doubt it.
I do expect Rafa to play the US and I do expect him to go deep. He doesn't play slams, where he thinks he's without a chance to win imo.
And I expect him to give it his very best at the WTF as well.
I favor Rafa over Fed at the US. I favor Fed over Rafa at the WTF if both are healthy.
All in all - he can close the gap and overtaking Rafa is not completely outside the realm of possibility. But Rafa may also end up with a 2000 points lead on Fed.
