MeatTornado
Talk Tennis Guru
Fwiw, he committed to the French Open in 2017 and then changed his mind.
- Status
oldmanfan
Legend
Fair point there. But that one was do to what he/his camp said that the knee felt 'funny' after a day or two of training/practicing on clay (or was that in 2016?). So they pulled out as a precaution I think.
MeatTornado
Talk Tennis Guru
You're half right. It was 2016 that he said his knee felt funny on the clay (after playing MC & Rome). It was 2017 he just practiced for a day or two, but without any physical issue.
In 17 he was worried his knee might feel weird again if he played too much on clay, so he committed to just the bare minimum (RG). But after a day or two of practice he realized how stupid that was and withdrew completely to get a head-start on Wimbledon prep instead.
oldmanfan
Legend
An aside:
The Old Man is quite considerate in nurturing the youngsters. 2 birds with 1 stone, and it's not the first time the Fedr's done something like this. I'm not sure if Miomir Kecmanovic had any tournament for the week he was training with Fedr, but it's likely that Fedr paid him for the week being his training partner, no? Miomir is a youngster on the rise, so likely could use the money. Remember how Fedr was similarly young and needed a WC that Queens refused, but Halle agreed, resulting in a lifetime contract years later? I remember Miomir mentioning that he was contemplating retiring from tennis bc of a recent rough patch during an IW19 interview (as he lost a tight IW19 qualies finals match). That was before he got in as a LL, resulting in a breakout showing by making the QF. Well done. The rest is history, and here he is with a chance to train with the GOAT, which he completed with smiles.
The Old Man is a good egg, and Miomir seems like one too.
And Clayerer is coming...
The Old Man is quite considerate in nurturing the youngsters. 2 birds with 1 stone, and it's not the first time the Fedr's done something like this. I'm not sure if Miomir Kecmanovic had any tournament for the week he was training with Fedr, but it's likely that Fedr paid him for the week being his training partner, no? Miomir is a youngster on the rise, so likely could use the money. Remember how Fedr was similarly young and needed a WC that Queens refused, but Halle agreed, resulting in a lifetime contract years later? I remember Miomir mentioning that he was contemplating retiring from tennis bc of a recent rough patch during an IW19 interview (as he lost a tight IW19 qualies finals match). That was before he got in as a LL, resulting in a breakout showing by making the QF. Well done. The rest is history, and here he is with a chance to train with the GOAT, which he completed with smiles.
The Old Man is a good egg, and Miomir seems like one too.
And Clayerer is coming...
Last edited:
Poisoned Slice
Bionic Poster
oldmanfan
Legend
ForehandRF
Legend
...and 2 trophies. The biggest one being 1 of the 2.
So you're saying that Fedr will celebrate 10 years since his first title at RG the way it should be ? That would be trolling at it's absolute best.Peak Trollerer ?
oldmanfan
Legend
So you're saying that Fedr will celebrate 10 years since his first title at RG the way it should be ? That would be trolling at it's absolute best.Peak Trollerer ?
GOAT doing GOAT things.
MeatTornado
Talk Tennis Guru
Sadly, I think we all know it will be about as successful as his 10th anniversary at the USO last year.So you're saying that Fedr will celebrate 10 years since his first title at RG the way it should be ? That would be trolling at it's absolute best.Peak Trollerer ?
underground
G.O.A.T.
I think Fed actually did say his knee felt a bit weird after practicing on clay in 17. He withdrew in 2016 mainly due to the back issue that flared up in Rome (that also stopped him from playing Madrid).
Povl Carstensen
Legend
Well, the beauty of sports is that you don't really know.
ForehandRF
Legend
Luka888
Professional
I don't really follow the race that closely but I just checked it out. Fed is #2 in the race, only 125 points behind Djokovic. Interesting . Here is the link btw.
https://live-tennis.eu/en/atp-race
. Here is the link btw. https://live-tennis.eu/en/atp-race
MeatTornado
Talk Tennis Guru
July is still a long time away. Plenty of time for Novak to get back into form. He can still sleepwalk to wins over the rest of the tour on Bo5 grass, then suddenly he finds himself in a SF or F with Federer and it's 2014 all over again.
Badabing888
Hall of Fame
I disagree that Roger can retire, if he won a 9th Wimbledon) knowing his slam record is safe from Rafa. Rafa can still have chances to win RG until he is 40 imo.
Im(moral) Winner
G.O.A.T.
Tried to?
Otacon
Hall of Fame
Tries.
Qubax
Professional
Do these two Clay losses by Rafa and Nole influence anyone's opinion on whether Roger has a shot at world #1 on the year?
If Novak doesn't clean up in non-slam tournaments (IW,Miami,Monte Carlo) and Nadal wins the French and Roger wins SW19, Novak will have had a pretty meh season after AO as we enter the summer.
I think it remains plausible that Fed ends the year #1
If Novak doesn't clean up in non-slam tournaments (IW,Miami,Monte Carlo) and Nadal wins the French and Roger wins SW19, Novak will have had a pretty meh season after AO as we enter the summer.
I think it remains plausible that Fed ends the year #1
Last edited:
Steve0904
Talk Tennis Guru
Wouldn't go as far as 40. 35 maybe.
Steve0904
Talk Tennis Guru
There are no travesties anymore where Fed is concerned. He's 37 years old. Acting like he's a lock to win Wimbledon is absolutely ludicrous.
underground
G.O.A.T.
My thoughts exactly. It's still too early to get excited about it just yet. But Djokodal missed a huge opportunity to stomp their authority in the race here.
ak24alive
Legend
It's really unlikely.
Novak will have to not only flop at non slam events but at slams too.
Flop by Novak's standards means QFs and SFs.
Even one Nole win at a slam will pretty much take Roger's chances away.
And as for Roger, well he will have to win Wimbledon for sure and maybe YEC and 2 masters because the number of tournaments he plays are really less compared to Novak and we all know that he cannot really win at Madrid, RG and USO.
So he will have to win most of Halle, Wimbley, Cincy, Shanghai, Basel and YEC.
Also Rafa will have to flop after the clay season and maybe lose another masters in the clay season as he is pretty much a lock for RG.
All this makes it really unlikely for Fed to be YE#1 but there's a small chance.
Im(moral) Winner
G.O.A.T.
Qubax
Professional
We've been through the math in another thread, but what I've hoped for from Roger is:
Madrid - SF
RG - QF
Halle - W
SW19 - W
Cincy - W
US Open - SF
Basel - W
Shanghai - F
WTF - F
It's not impossible to me. Fed does often peak for what he enters and this is only 9 tournaments in about 6 months
Madrid - SF
RG - QF
Halle - W
SW19 - W
Cincy - W
US Open - SF
Basel - W
Shanghai - F
WTF - F
It's not impossible to me. Fed does often peak for what he enters and this is only 9 tournaments in about 6 months
underground
G.O.A.T.
At the end of the day, it's dependent on Fed's results at slams. Outside of slams I think he's reached at least the SFs in every tournament since 2017 Stuttgart except for 18 Miami, but no SFs in his last 3 slams.
BGod
G.O.A.T.
Ya no.
From 2015-2016 Roger lead Nadal 17-14. Right now it's 20-17.
Even though Nadal has only won 1 Slam outside the French in 5 seasons I just don't think it's safe in this era. Because he could win 4 French and a USO.
ak24alive
Legend
That's just too much to ask me thinks especially that SF at USO and even the QF at RG. You are asking for too much consistency from the old man.
Even if he gets all of that he will have something like 9300 points by YE.
Last year even after that abysmal first half Djoker had 11000+ points.
Rafa had 10500+ points in 2017.
If you will check all the YE#1 points from the last 10 years you will find everyone is atleast above 10000.
Still I don't think it's impossible that Rog finishes #1 but for it to happen not only Roger will have to win or make finals pretty much everywhere like you said but also Novak and Rafa will have to flop majorly.
It will be almost a miracle.
Qubax
Professional
I think it's important to remember that Fed was very close to getting through Tsitsipas in AO. Hadn't dropped a set and had hardly dropped serve before that match. If Fed capitalizes on those break points he likely rolls through to the SF/F of AO.
Even with that in mind Fed's record is:
AO - 4th
Dubai - W
IW - F
Miami - W
If after the AO I said Fed would win 2 of his 3 next tournies being a finalist in the other, no one would have believed it.
Fed has won 2 of 4 tournaments entered.
And I'm asking for him to win 4 of his remaining 9 participations.
Again - not saying likely.....but asking is it "plausible"
It probably wasn't too plausible for Djoker to have his post AO results or for Nadal to get straight setted on clay, but here we are.
Even with that in mind Fed's record is:
AO - 4th
Dubai - W
IW - F
Miami - W
If after the AO I said Fed would win 2 of his 3 next tournies being a finalist in the other, no one would have believed it.
Fed has won 2 of 4 tournaments entered.
And I'm asking for him to win 4 of his remaining 9 participations.
Again - not saying likely.....but asking is it "plausible"
It probably wasn't too plausible for Djoker to have his post AO results or for Nadal to get straight setted on clay, but here we are.
Qubax
Professional
The main issue here is if Djokovic wins the French. Then Fed is in trouble career slam wise from Djoker.
Also Novak may enter SW19 in ruthless form too.
Truly Federer fans preference is someone other then the big 3 win FO, but if Rafa wins French and then Fed wins Wimbly - Nadal is unlikely to catch Fed and Djoker has squandered two very important slams to his rivals.
ak24alive
Legend
Definitely plausible.
Poisoned Slice
Bionic Poster
Qubax
Professional
Now you're certainly correct that even if Federer rattles off what I've suggested he still needs some help since 9,300 ranking points seem unlikely to cut it - but we are starting to see more and more that Djoker and Rafa are less consistent week in week out as they were at say 26 years old.Definitely plausible.
So perhaps if Fed posts what I've suggested they'll be enough points dilution from the rest of the field for Fed to be #1.
We are already seeing signs of Djoker and Nadal leaving points on the table.
---
One example of points left on the table is Fed losing at AO 4th, Novak W, Rafa F
And yet Fed was #1 points race after Miami. I mean that was statistically mega unlikely, so not sure we can just count on Djoker and Rafa to the same degree anymore.
What about a scenario where someone other then Big 3 win French and Roger wins SW19 - Fed's almost in the driver's seat then.
ak24alive
Legend
I just hope Rog doesn't have a dip in form throughout the year and then perhaps we can see a miracle this year.
A three way race between Fed, Rafa and Nole would be amazing, especially if Rog comes out on top.
A friend pointed out to me how Roger's form dips in slam matches that go beyond the 2.5 hour mark.
I hope he plays lights out tennis by Wimbley and gets his matches done in straight sets. I would love to see a 5 set Wimbley final between Nole and Rog and have Roger come out on top but sadly I think those days are beyond us when we can expect him to win 5 set matches.
With age it gets really difficult to play well in high pressure situations as we have seen throughout the last year.
So many choked matches, so many dips in form in important situations.
Just hope his form doesn't dip throughout the matches anymore.
justasport
Professional
2019 French Open Champion:
Roger Federer
Roger Federer
BeatlesFan
Bionic Poster
Last edited:
oldmanfan
Legend
I understand what you're trying to say but...... your pts total is wrong for Djokr's 2018 YE#1. It was not 11000+ pts, but only 9,045 pts. Yes, that low. That was the lowest YE#1 in 14yrs(!) since Fedr ended 2004 YE#1 (w/ converted pts from the old system). Nadl's total for 2017 YE#1 was low too, but it was above 10k at 10,645 pts. And Fedr ended 2017 YE#2 at 9,005 pts, peanuts away from Djokr's 9,045 pts as 2018 YE#1
. And that was Fedr without clay .Nadalovic had a chance to make it tough for Fedr's YE#1 chances at MC19, but they couldn't capitalize. Now, the top3 race leaders are at:
#1=2405pts(Djokr),
#2=2280(Fedr),
#3=1965(Nadl)
That's VERY low, and we're almost in May
. For reference, just after Miami alone in 2017-18 (forget MC), the race leader (Fedr) was at 4045 pts in 2017 and 3110 pts in 2018. 2019 is shaping up to be a very low YE#1 in pts again.Fedr's results are very consistent, even though it doesn't seem like it at times, especially outside of slams. The current situation is unique in that Djokr's YE#1 chances, and Nadl's too to a lesser extent, are heavily dependent on slams while it's the opposite for Fedr. How so? Well, if we removed slams pts from the official rankings, here is where the Big3 stand:
Djokr: 4800 pts
Nadl: 3445 pts
Fedr: 4870 pts
And most of those Fedr 4870 pts were gained when Fedr had to deal with a hand ailment in last year's 2nd half.
Crazy right? And yes, I understand that slams matter, hugely. But it's pretty crazy how many pts Fedr has outside of slams compared to Nadalovic, 5-6yrs his junior and closer to prime. Right now, both Djokr and Nadl are fortunate that they got to the finals of AO19, or the race wouldn't even be close atm.
I agree with @Qubax that Fedr has a 'plausible' chance for 2019 YE#1, very plausible even. However, it isn't in Fedr's hands per se since it depends on clay-Nadl and hc-Djokr.
Fedr's chances of 2019 YE#1 isn't big bc he plays so little, but it isn't small either. Fedr really may just end as 2019 YE#1. And as a Fedfan, Fedr as YE#1 as weak as 8000pts is fine by me!
ForehandRF
Legend
Fedr's chances of 2019 YE#1 isn't big bc he plays so little, but it isn't small either. Fedr really may just end as 2019 YE#1. And as a Fedfan, Fedr as YE#1 as weak as 8000pts is fine by me!
He needs to win Wimbledon to have a chance and that is possible, but with Fedr nowadays you never know because his game can let him down, just like in the match Vs Anderson last year and there you go
ForehandRF
Legend
Bobby Jr
G.O.A.T.
Alternatively, in the last 4 years when Nadal was still much closer to his prime than Federer, he's gotten no closer in majors.
He hasn't made hay while the sun was shining in his corner at all. He was way closer to catching Federer 4 years ago than he is now all things considered, but now there's a bunch of guys coming through who really are starting to look like they can give him a tough time, if even to just tire him for subsequent matches.
ak24alive
Legend
Ah my bad with Djoker's points. I googled and got a webpage showing the points and I assumed that they were YE2018 points, also the order of the players was same. Actually it was the ATP rankings page. Such a brainfart on my part.I understand what you're trying to say but...... your pts total is wrong for Djokr's 2018 YE#1. It was not 11000+ pts, but only 9,045 pts. Yes, that low. That was the lowest YE#1 in 14yrs(!) since Fedr ended 2004 YE#1 (w/ converted pts from the old system). Nadl's total for 2017 YE#1 was low too, but it was above 10k at 10,645 pts. And Fedr ended 2017 YE#2 at 9,005 pts, peanuts away from Djokr's 9,045 pts as 2018 YE#1
Nadalovic had a chance to make it tough for Fedr's YE#1 chances at MC19, but they couldn't capitalize. Now, the top3 race leaders are at:
#1=2405pts(Djokr),
#2=2280(Fedr),
#3=1965(Nadl)
That's VERY low, and we're almost in May
Fedr's results are very consistent, even though it doesn't seem like it at times, especially outside of slams. The current situation is unique in that Djokr's YE#1 chances, and Nadl's too to a lesser extent, are heavily dependent on slams while it's the opposite for Fedr. How so? Well, if we removed slams pts from the official rankings, here is where the Big3 stand:
Djokr: 4800 pts
Nadl: 3445 pts
Fedr: 4870 pts
And most of those Fedr 4870 pts were gained when Fedr had to deal with a hand ailment in last year's 2nd half.
Crazy right? And yes, I understand that slams matter, hugely. But it's pretty crazy how many pts Fedr has outside of slams compared to Nadalovic, 5-6yrs his junior and closer to prime. Right now, both Djokr and Nadl are fortunate that they got to the finals of AO19, or the race wouldn't even be close atm.
I agree with @Qubax that Fedr has a 'plausible' chance for 2019 YE#1, very plausible even. However, it isn't in Fedr's hands per se since it depends on clay-Nadl and hc-Djokr.
Fedr's chances of 2019 YE#1 isn't big bc he plays so little, but it isn't small either. Fedr really may just end as 2019 YE#1. And as a Fedfan, Fedr as YE#1 as weak as 8000pts is fine by me!
mightyjeditribble
Hall of Fame
Wow some people are really getting carried away. Roger is not going to be able to bring his Miami form year-round. Even then, he was in trouble in R1.
No point in even discussing #1 unless he wins Wimbledon. Which would be so deliciously amazing that I also won't think about #1 for a while.
(Sent from my mobile phone.)
No point in even discussing #1 unless he wins Wimbledon. Which would be so deliciously amazing that I also won't think about #1 for a while.
(Sent from my mobile phone.)
MeatTornado
Talk Tennis Guru
People here actually believed that was happening a few months back
Nostradamus
Bionic Poster
wouldn't it be ironic if Miomir the up and coming hot junior handed Federer his last match in his retirement year ?
- Status
Similar threads
