how much give you chance that thiem - medvedev final in 2021 AO ?

[skypadq]

nadal 's back is definally not good , we all know , very sucks
and i really think dominic thiem is very good shot to take out novak djokovic , if he can reach semi final
we all seen 2020 AO final , thiem can lead two set to one
if thiem can improve his return % and overpower novak djokovic in rally , i think he has good shot
and they will meet not final , it 's semi final

i think probably 35 % ? , 40 ?
and i really think tsitsipas can take out rafa also
i am not impressed with rafa played and i know tsitsipas has won only once agianst rafa
but still ...

 

[ADuck]

Hi skypad

 

[skypadq]

Hi skypad

hi aduck

 

[MichaelNadal]

Id make wings for that

 

[alexio]

33% (almost agree with you, sky)

 

[MeatTornado]

7%

 

[Deleted member 748597]

 

[RaulRamirez]

Let me try this:

if thiem would won one mor set in last year final, he definally would beat djovic. this year if thiem meet djovic in semi is definally very good shot.

 

[Deleted member 771911]

50%

 

[FlamingCheeto]

There is exactly 0% chance of this happening. *with a .01% error rate

 

[James P]

I could change my mind, but I don't think Thiem makes it there. ATP Cup and two matches in, I don't quite see it yet. I think Medvedev has about a 50% probability of making the final, though.

 

[Hitman]

Come on Rafa, take out Med, and make it easier for Novak to win 18.

 

[NoleIsBoat]

Djokovic is 99% favourite so... less than 1% chance of this happening

 

[Rafa4LifeEver]

Come on Rafa, take out Med, and make it easier for Novak to win 18.

Djokovic can certainly hit through Medvedev in these conditions though.
But I agree with you, if both Novak & Medvedev make the final in a good shape, then the serbian superstar must be ready to face the biggest grindfest at AO since 2012 final with Rafael Nadal.
It won't be easy with Daniil, I agree, sir.

 

[PETEhammer]

10-15%

 

[aldeayeah]

Med is a slight fav in the bottom bracket, let's say 50%

Thiem similarly so in the top half, with Djokovic's injury woes, but IMO he's more vulnerable so let's say 40%.

So that would make them about 20% to meet, is my opinion. Probably a bit less, I may be overrating Med a bit. 15%?

 

[TomTennis495]

I'd say 50% too now that Thiem got thru Kygrios. Don't rule out Zverev as the wild card though. When he's serving he's hard to beat. When he's serving....

 

[BeatlesFan]

Don't rule out Zverev as the wild card though. When he's serving he's hard to beat. When he's serving....

I'll say!

 

[anarosevoli]

Th reaches SF with 80 % probability, wins SF 33 % against Dj, 67 % against other: chance to reach final: 0.8 * (0.75 * 0.33 + 0.25 * 0.67) = 33.4 %
M reaches SF with 90 % probability, wins SF 67 % against Nadal, 75 % against other; chance to reach final: 0.9 * (0.6 * 0.67 + 0.4 * 0.75) = 63.2 %
(Dj 75 % chance to reach SF, other 25 %)
(N 60 % chance to reach SF, other 40 %)

Chances for Th-M final: 0.632 * 0.334 = 21.1 %

 

[Sunny014]

Thiem vs Medvedev will be good for Tennis.

 

[Sunny014]

Kyrgios missed a great chance to reach the final, taking out Thiem would have put him in a strong position.
Meeting the number 3 seed so early harmed his chances of winning the Title.

 

[Beckerserve]

Id make wings for that

Djokovic is not getting past Raonic zverev and thiem in 30c plus heat next week. Yes he has yet again hugely exaggerated an injury issue (it is a niggle nothing more as if it was he would not have won the match lol) to perhaps play mind games with his side of the draw but i doubt any of them will fall for it.

 

[MichaelNadal]

Djokovic is not getting past Raonic zverev and thiem in 30c plus heat next week. Yes he has yet again hugely exaggerated an injury issue (it is a niggle nothing more as if it was he would not have won the match lol) to perhaps play mind games with his side of the draw but i doubt any of them will fall for it.

Novak getting old

 

[TennisFan3]

Less than 5% chance.
I would put the probability as follows:

Novak - Medvedev : 80%
Novak - Nadal : 15%
Thiem - Nadal : 3.5%
Thiem - Medvedev : 1.5%

 

[Beckerserve]

Come on Rafa, take out Med, and make it easier for Novak to win 18.

Novak will never beat Rafa at a Major again on what we are seeing. Especially in hot conditions which it is forecast to be next week. Novak is not beating Thiem either.
He is a fabulous player still but physically very suspect now. Rafa if his back holds up has a great chance as not sure Tsitispas or Medvedev will enjoy brutal heat against Nadal.
As things stand i would have to make Thiem favourite as he is the fittest guy on tour and fitness will be what wins this.

 

[Beckerserve]

Novak getting old

Too stressed. He is obsessing over records and it is making him stressed and that leads to niggles.
When he sees the weather forecast for Monday lets see how keen he is to play. 30c it is saying and at night Melbourne can be stifling

 

[Sunny014]

If Novak reaches the final then he will lift the Title unless the surname of the person he faces will be Medvedev.

Rafa will be mauled by Novak if he faces Novak in the final.

 

[beast of mallorca]

nadal 's back is definally not good , we all know , very sucks
and i really think dominic thiem is very good shot to take out novak djokovic , if he can reach semi final
we all seen 2020 AO final , thiem can lead two set to one
if thiem can improve his return % and overpower novak djokovic in rally , i think he has good shot
and they will meet not final , it 's semi final

i think probably 35 % ? , 40 ?
and i really think tsitsipas can take out rafa also
i am not impressed with rafa played and i know tsitsipas has won only once agianst rafa
but still ...

Nadal: "We will see, no ? But I will gib my bery best, no? "

 

[thomasferrett]

0% chance - there's no way Thiem beats Djokovic in a Slam ever (even a Djokovic with a torn right oblique) and there's no way Medvedev beats Nadal in a Slam ever (even a Nadal with a broken back).

Nadal is so much fitter than Medvedev it's beyond a joke.

Gonna be yet another Nadal vs Djokovic final and then a Nadal win since Nadal's back seems less injured than Djokovic's oblique.

It's kinda sad that even in their crippled state the Big Two can waltz through the rest of the draw.

 

[mike danny]

Chance is a bit higher for at least Thiem to reach the final assuming Novak is unwell.