New wave aging Djokovic and Nadal

RelentlessAttack

Hall of Fame
Let them do it consistently...
As @aman92 and some others said...
Last time when I checked tennis stats, so called young guns Coric and Tsitsipas were pummeled by 37.5 years old federer, back to back.
Rafa literally ate up that greek BS 6-2 6-4 6-0
Djoker bageled shapo after he luckily won a set
FAA hasn't played a big3 member on a big stage, so can't say anything about him...
But it looks like when these youngsters don't have enough legs to grind out big3, they p-iss in their pants....no plan B

Nadal was an anomaly with his 18 y/o results, Murray and Djokovic really made big impacts from 20-22, Delpo broke through at the USO at 20. Federer was a little later at 21 (almost 22). I would say anyone who passes 21 without having a really big result is not destined for the type of future as these guys, but Felix/Shapo/Tsits have a little time to show us if they've got it. You shouldn't really be looking for them to be big 3 level, as after the Laver/Rosewall gen it took until the Big 3 to have similar kinds of numbers for various reasons (e.g. Borg's burnout, etc.). If 2-4 of them can reach Agassi, McEnroe, Becker, Edberg level that's still pretty good.

Thiem is too old but might score 1-2 slams in his career at the French.
Zverev is passing the above window next month and has been a flop at slams, so I don't think he's the next ATG, but he may collect a few slams in his career as well.
It's gen useless that's been the problem.
 

RelentlessAttack

Hall of Fame
Make that 4 years as this young gun problem started from 2015.

Started in 2010 actually. Some rough/arguable breakthrough years.
2000 - Safin
2001 - Hewitt
2003 - Federer/Roddick
2005 - Nadal
2007 - Djokovic
2008 - Murray
2009 - Del Potro

And then... nothing.

What the hell happened? Now we finally have a few good prospects but it took 10 years.
 

AnOctorokForDinner

Talk Tennis Guru
Started in 2010 actually. Some rough/arguable breakthrough years.
2000 - Safin
2001 - Hewitt
2003 - Federer/Roddick
2005 - Nadal
2007 - Djokovic
2008 - Murray
2009 - Del Potro

And then... nothing.

What the hell happened? Now we finally have a few good prospects but it took 10 years.

Yeah, that was masked in 2011-13 when at least 2 of the Big4 were in top shape at any time, and 2014 when Wawrinka joined the party and the younger Dimitrov, Nishikori, Raonic finally had a relative breakthrough making Slam semis and a final, giving hope for the future... but all of them regressed in 2015, coupled with Nadal in truly dull form, and that's when the lack of challengers became an apparent issue.
 

Lleytonstation

Talk Tennis Guru
I think many people here have watched the past 8 years or so and saw the young guns fail after being hyped up which makes them believe the same will happen with this generation. However I don't see the same story playing out with these young guys, and the fact that the Big 3 have a harder time (yes, not so much in the slams) then the past generation tells you something: either the big 3 age is showing or the new young guns are better than the last.
 
I think many people here have watched the past 8 years or so and saw the young guns fail after being hyped up which makes them believe the same will happen with this generation. However I don't see the same story playing out with these young guys, and the fact that the Big 3 have a harder time (yes, not so much in the slams) then the past generation tells you something: either the big 3 age is showing or the new young guns are better than the last.

That's the only thing.
No way prime fedalovic or 30-31 fed gets pushed by these idiotic youngsters who just don't have a game B
 

Lleytonstation

Talk Tennis Guru
I do not know these stats and will try to look, but what we're Dimitrov's, Raonic, Nishikori, and others H2H against the big 3 at the ages of 18 to 24? My guess is nothing close to what it is with that same age group now.
 
I do not know these stats and will try to look, but what we're Dimitrov's, Raonic, Nishikori, and others H2H against the big 3 at the ages of 18 to 24? My guess is nothing close to what it is with that same age group now.
That's because lostgen had to play against the lot better versions of big3...
 

Lleytonstation

Talk Tennis Guru
That's the only thing.
No way prime fedalovic or 30-31 fed gets pushed by these idiotic youngsters who just don't have a game B

Your right, but that are not 30-31 anymore, and 18 months from now they definitely won't be. In the mean time this generation will improve, maybe not to all time greats, but just enough to steal two to three slams from Djokovic and Nadal.
 
Your right, but that are not 30-31 anymore, and 18 months from now they definitely won't be. In the mean time this generation will improve, maybe not to all time greats, but just enough to steal two to three slams from Djokovic and Nadal.

This so called next gen will be just lucky to have late 30s fed and mid 30s djokodal when they'll peak........
Otherwise put them into 2005-15 and you'll see even more dominant performances by big3
 

JackGates

Legend
I think many people here have watched the past 8 years or so and saw the young guns fail after being hyped up which makes them believe the same will happen with this generation. However I don't see the same story playing out with these young guys, and the fact that the Big 3 have a harder time (yes, not so much in the slams) then the past generation tells you something: either the big 3 age is showing or the new young guns are better than the last.
I think it will happen with this generation also, it's just that big 3 will be so ancient that anybody could beat them at this point.
 

Lleytonstation

Talk Tennis Guru
My entire point is not that the Big 3 are going to fade dramatically in the next 18 months, or that the 18-24 year Olds will become great. My point is that a year or two ago I would take the big 3 over the field without a second thought. Now, taking the big 3 over the field is becoming less likely than before.

If the percent chance of the big three winning vs the field was 90 percent, I believe that in 18 months it will be more like 25 percent which means they better win their slams now.

In the past we were looking at like three to four young guys (Raonic, Nishikori, Dimitrov, Goffin). Now we are looking at like 10 to 15. All it takes is one of those guys to beat them in any round, they don't have to win slams.
 

RelentlessAttack

Hall of Fame
The lost gen clowns still can't challenge Djokovic and Nadal despite being in the age range for their so called primes. So either they were less talented than the current newcomers or they were just completely mentally broken by the big 3. I think it was the former that led to the latter. No one from lost gen could even come close then or now.
 

kevaninho

Hall of Fame
My entire point is not that the Big 3 are going to fade dramatically in the next 18 months, or that the 18-24 year Olds will become great. My point is that a year or two ago I would take the big 3 over the field without a second thought. Now, taking the big 3 over the field is becoming less likely than before.

If the percent chance of the big three winning vs the field was 90 percent, I believe that in 18 months it will be more like 25 percent which means they better win their slams now.

In the past we were looking at like three to four young guys (Raonic, Nishikori, Dimitrov, Goffin). Now we are looking at like 10 to 15. All it takes is one of those guys to beat them in any round, they don't have to win slams.

Making a prediction about 18 months time, jeez. Well loets face it, Nadal and Federer will likely be retired by then, so its not that hard to imagine someone else coming through.
 

Lleytonstation

Talk Tennis Guru
Making a prediction about 18 months time, jeez. Well loets face it, Nadal and Federer will likely be retired by then, so its not that hard to imagine someone else coming through.

Well apparently according to the reactions here, most think Djokovic and Nadal will be winning into their late 30's and that these young guns will not break through for over 2 to 3 years.
 

JackGates

Legend
The lost gen clowns still can't challenge Djokovic and Nadal despite being in the age range for their so called primes. So either they were less talented than the current newcomers or they were just completely mentally broken by the big 3. I think it was the former that led to the latter. No one from lost gen could even come close then or now.
It's hard to say why it happened it's complicated. My theory is that tennis stopped evolving it reached his peak, so younger guys don't get any competitive edge. It's like if Newton was born today, he would have nothing more to discover no matter how talented he was, since technology seemed to reach its peak. I don't think it's mental or young players aren't talented. Just my opinion, those things are complicated.
 

BHud

Hall of Fame
Big difference between best of 3 and best of 5...I need to see proof that NewGen is ready to compete in a major...
 

RelentlessAttack

Hall of Fame
@JackGates

I think there are multiple factors here:

1) Big 3 were improbably talented
2) Gen Useless was improbably worthless
3) Court surfaces were homogenized so if you're better than someone in one place you're better than them pretty much everywhere, allowing you to build a huge mental and tactical edge against players worse than you
4) Huge increase in prize and endorsement money around the early 00s making older players more likely to stick around
5) Increase in money means that top players have exponentially more resources to improve their game and look after their health compared to young players
6) Surface homogenization started happening around 2002, so then next few years of youngsters still grew up in an environment where they had been exposed to a variety of play styles and a complete set of skills instead of just baseline bashing
7) Racquet and string technology changes stabilized, preventing older players from being forced out by new tech
8) Less and less opportunities to get BO5 experience outside of slams as now pretty much everything is BO3.
9) Young players get an early exposure to fame and money now which can derail them (see: Tomic, Kyrgios)
10) Young players marinate in the modern weird low-work-ethic, low-struggle, constant-social-media environment which might affect them negatively

No one in the next gen has shown big 3 levels of promise YET, but at least we now have a few prospects with potential. For 8-10 years there was literally no one on the horizon who could even hope to be a top tier player. A guy like Cilic would have probably been at least a 2-4 slam winner in a different era but even he belongs to the previous gen if I'm not mistaken (same age as del potro so the end of the Nadal, djokovic, murray, del potro group).

In other sports, young players are still breaking through all the time, even though training techniques have allowed older players to stick around longer than in the past (e.g. Tom Brady). In hockey, amazing young talents are breaking through every year, but in tennis we had a weird 10 year gap.

Is there a popularity issue leading to less high quality athletes entering tennis? Seems unlikely as viewership has been increasing every decade as a consequence of greater media reach.
 
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ChrisRF

Legend
It's hard to say why it happened it's complicated. My theory is that tennis stopped evolving it reached his peak, so younger guys don't get any competitive edge. It's like if Newton was born today, he would have nothing more to discover no matter how talented he was, since technology seemed to reach its peak. I don't think it's mental or young players aren't talented. Just my opinion, those things are complicated.
A big factor is also that there was no significant increase in racquet technology for the last 15 years or so. During the 80s and 90s and early 00s the young players had the advantage to have grown up with racquets that were superior to the material the old elite played with during their whole career. The older player then either were too stubborn to switch (like Sampras) or had problems with it, because it is always way more difficult to later adjust to something than to start with it.
 

Sport

G.O.A.T.
Felix, Shapo, and Tsitsipas will actually prevent Djokovic from winning easy slams. Unlike the lost boys who were useless.
Actually, it was Bautista the one who stopped Djokovic, not Shapovalov (who was destroyed by Djokovic in the AO).
 

JackGates

Legend
A big factor is also that there was no significant increase in racquet technology for the last 15 years or so. During the 80s and 90s and early 00s the young players had the advantage to have grown up with racquets that were superior to the material the old elite played with during their whole career. The older player then either were too stubborn to switch (like Sampras) or had problems with it, because it is always way more difficult to later adjust to something than to start with it.
Yes, I do count this also as lack of evolution too. There is just nowhere to go. I'm sure if they start playing with different equipment, younger guys would be dominating since they would spent more time with new technology.

If you can't evolve it means that players who are doing it longer will always have the edge.
 

JackGates

Legend
What I find hilarious is that armchair analysts on TTW are smart enough to say all this stupid **** lmao.
Ok, who for you is considered a great analyst from the public ones in the press? On average people here are better analysts than those public ones. It's because people here are so passionate and have so much free time that they think more about tennis than most so called professional analysts.

Seriously, people here on average have more credibility to me than even all time greats. Because people here are mostly nerds smarter on average and more obsessed too, so of course they will be better. Yes you have to weed out a few newbies and a few biased people, but in general the quality here is great.
 

RoddickAce

Hall of Fame
Hard to say. Let's not forget that Djoko lost to two 30+ individuals, it's not as though the new wave is consistently pushing him out yet.

Also, the "young guns" that Fed faced were Djoko, Rafa, Murray, Gasquet, Tsonga, etc. (4 or 5+ years younger than Fed). These guys were extremely talented and Fed weathered the storm pretty well into his 30's.

The "young guns" for Djoko and Rafa should have been the "lost gen" of Raonic, Nishikori, etc. So, sure the teens and 20's may be improving, but Djoko and Rafa should be able to handle these young guys if 30+ year old Fed could deal with Djoko/Rafa/Murray in their mid/late 20's.
 

Lleytonstation

Talk Tennis Guru
Hard to say. Let's not forget that Djoko lost to two 30+ individuals, it's not as though the new wave is consistently pushing him out yet.

Also, the "young guns" that Fed faced were Djoko, Rafa, Murray, Gasquet, Tsonga, etc. (4 or 5+ years younger than Fed). These guys were extremely talented and Fed weathered the storm pretty well into his 30's.

The "young guns" for Djoko and Rafa should have been the "lost gen" of Raonic, Nishikori, etc. So, sure the teens and 20's may be improving, but Djoko and Rafa should be able to handle these young guys if 30+ year old Fed could deal with Djoko/Rafa/Murray in their mid/late 20's.

Only thing is the gap in age is way bigger than the generations you speak of. The top young guys I am talking about are about a decade younger than Nadal and Djokovic, so they are only going to improve dramatically while Djokovic and Nadal will slowly decline.

All it takes is a couple of big wins in the slams over Djokovic and Nadal to keep them from catching Fed.
 

ak24alive

Legend
People who are thinking that Felix, Shapo, Tsits, Zverev and Thiem will do any significant damage to Djokodal are going to face reality soon and when they do I hope they are wearing a helmet.
If you keep making predictions saying "Young guys will hurt the old guys", one day it will come true but there's no magic in such a prediction which has been wrong a million times before.
It will be better if we make threads like these after one of these young whoevers have beaten Djokodal in a slam or two.
 

Red Rick

Bionic Poster
It's hard to argue that the current young players "suck." The players aged 21-29 are probably collectively the worst decade of players the game has seen, but the group 20 and under look very strong.
20 year old reaching Slam semi used to be the norm. Now it happens because he played a 37 year old who actively had to choke it a way.
 

Red Rick

Bionic Poster
People who are thinking that Felix, Shapo, Tsits, Zverev and Thiem will do any significant damage to Djokodal are going to face reality soon and when they do I hope they are wearing a helmet.
If you keep making predictions saying "Young guys will hurt the old guys", one day it will come true but there's no magic in such a prediction which has been wrong a million times before.
It will be better if we make threads like these after one of these young whoevers have beaten Djokodal in a slam or two.
I think we should stop arguing and just make a compilation of failed FAA volleys
 

beard

Legend
Fed's young guns consisted of Djokovic, Nadal, Murray, Stan,Delpo among others.

Djokodal's consisted of Dimitrov, Raonic, Nishikori, Thiem and so far a bunch of inconsistent Next Genners who can't even reach slam quarters or semis.

It's not even close. If anyone has had it rough with the young players, it's Fed by far.
Fed in his top years had basically nobody. Bolded players had EACH OTHER plus Wawarinka, plus aged but phenomenal Federer.
Delusion on infinity level :eek:
 

JackGates

Legend
Fed in his top years had basically nobody. Bolded players had EACH OTHER plus Wawarinka, plus aged but phenomenal Federer.
Delusion on infinity level :eek:
It's not a delusion, we are just cherry picking stats the same way you are doing it. I can say Rafa is amazing clay courter or I can spin it and say he faced 0 RG champions. Both is possible, we will never know. But you don't even realize that there are two options, you don't even know how logic works, it's funny. But I'm cherry picking and massaging number as a parody to mock you, I know what I'm doing and what you are doing, but you don't, that's why it's so fun.

Basically you are saying that Federer had weaker competition because he didn't have to face himself. If I translate your logic for simpletons, this is what your argument is and you are so biased you don't even see that your logic is making it lol.

I wasn't insulting you, I was insulting myself with this. It's my stupidity if I argue with silly people, it's not your fault, smarter person is to blame, so I'm the one who is and idiot here, you can help it, I'm doing it because I'm lazy and don't want to work :).
 

oldmanfan

Legend
It's hard to argue that the current young players "suck." The players aged 21-29 are probably collectively the worst decade of players the game has seen, but the group 20 and under look very strong.

I was about to counter your '21-29yo weak decade' as compared to the sub-20yo, but then realized that Murray/Wawa/Delpo/Cilic/Berdych/Tsonga/etc. are all 30+ and Ferrer/Safin/Hewitt/Roddick/Ferrero/Moya/Nalbandian/etc. are either ancient or retired... :eek:

Although I see your point that the sub-20yo (sub-22 really) group is decent, there's no proof yet that they are better than the 2nd tier(!) of Fed's gen nor Nadalovic's gen, let alone the ACTUAL first tier of the Big3. I mean, they still can't even suppress an ancient Fedr, allowing him to reach #1 and winning slams and masters.

And that is the sad state tennis is in atm. :censored:
 

reaper

Legend
I was about to counter your '21-29yo weak decade' as compared to the sub-20yo, but then realized that Murray/Wawa/Delpo/Cilic/Berdych/Tsonga/etc. are all 30+ and Ferrer/Safin/Hewitt/Roddick/Ferrero/Moya/Nalbandian/etc. are either ancient or retired... :eek:

Although I see your point that the sub-20yo (sub-22 really) group is decent, there's no proof yet that they are better than the 2nd tier(!) of Fed's gen nor Nadalovic's gen, let alone the ACTUAL first tier of the Big3. I mean, they still can't even suppress an ancient Fedr, allowing him to reach #1 and winning slams and masters.

And that is the sad state tennis is in atm. :censored:

The main narrative in tennis for the next few years will be the slam count, and maybe weeks at number 1 once Djokovic approaches Federer's mark. I think the current group of players aged 20 or under plus Thiem and perhaps Zverev or Khachanov should they rediscover their mojo are good enough to add interest to that. I suspect they'll win at least 1 slam by the end of next year, 2 in 2021 and the vast majority thereafter. So Nadal and Djokovic still have time to claim the record but won't want to miss winning opportunities along the way.
 

Noletheking

Hall of Fame
The main narrative in tennis for the next few years will be the slam count, and maybe weeks at number 1 once Djokovic approaches Federer's mark. I think the current group of players aged 20 or under plus Thiem and perhaps Zverev or Khachanov should they rediscover their mojo are good enough to add interest to that. I suspect they'll win at least 1 slam by the end of next year, 2 in 2021 and the vast majority thereafter. So Nadal and Djokovic still have time to claim the record but won't want to miss winning opportunities along the way.

Who do you think out of Djokodal will win his 20eth slam first ?
 
Rafa just really can't afford to slip at Roland Garros in 2019 or 2020.

Agree. Huge pressure on Rafa. The weight of expectation he has faced continuing such a level of dominance on clay is absurd. He doesn't get nearly enough respect for continually winning year after year with everyone breathing down his neck.

Thiem is coming into the peak of his career and djokovic will also be a serious threat the next 2 years on clay, to say nothing of many of the next gen guys who are good on clay.

If anyone can cope with the pressure it's Rafa but it will be tough. Everything is stacked against him.

People are starting to make arguments that Djokovic could make claims to being greatest of his era based on his performance this year at RG. Like Nole, Rafa's legacy is also dependent on the next few years at RG imo.
 

Noletheking

Hall of Fame
Agree. Huge pressure on Rafa. The weight of expectation he has faced continuing such a level of dominance on clay is absurd. He doesn't get nearly enough respect for continually winning year after year with everyone breathing down his neck.

Thiem is coming into the peak of his career and djokovic will also be a serious threat the next 2 years on clay, to say nothing of many of the next gen guys who are good on clay.

If anyone can cope with the pressure it's Rafa but it will be tough. Everything is stacked against him.

People are starting to make arguments that Djokovic could make claims to being greatest of his era based on his performance this year at RG. Like Nole, Rafa's legacy is also dependent on the next few years at RG imo.
I think Rafa just need to be patient he will get many nonclay slam opportunity if Djokovic is out of pic( Roger always waiting patiently to add no first when Rafa was not in final in Rafa days and when Novak was not in pic in Novak days. Next gen is not good enough , but biggest question is can Rafa remain healthy and patient enough to cash on opportunities?
 

abmk

Bionic Poster
Fed in his top years had basically nobody. Bolded players had EACH OTHER plus Wawarinka, plus aged but phenomenal Federer.
Delusion on infinity level :eek:

Fed in his top years had Agassi, Nadal, Hewitt, Roddick, Safin etc.
yes, Nadal was a major part of tennis in 2005-07, troll.

Hewitt, Roddick, Safin by themselves are considerably better than any of the young guys from 2014-current (i.e from 89-95 gen)
Even Nalbandian, Davydenko are clearly better.
You'll just be laughed at more and more for ridiculous posts if you continue the same.
Get yourself back to reality from the la la land.
 
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Fed in his top years had Agassi, Nadal, Hewitt, Roddick, Safin etc.
yes, Nadal was a major part of tennis in 2005-07, troll.

Hewitt, Roddick, Safin by themselves are considerably better than any of the young guys from 2014-current (i.e from 89-95 gen)
Even Nalbandian, Davydenko are clearly better.
You'll just be laughed at more and more for ridiculous posts if you continue the same.
Get yourself back to reality from the la la land.

I asked one of the regular trolls here to list his criteria for a tennis player to be considered an undoubted competitor on the highest level. It turned out that by his own criteria Nadal in 2006 and Djokovic in 2007 were already such competitors (of course Nadal was in 2005 too, but I didn't press the matter further).

The result? He couldn't say a word after that.

8-B
 

abmk

Bionic Poster
I asked one of the regular trolls here to list his criteria for a tennis player to be considered an undoubted competitor on the highest level. It turned out that by his own criteria Nadal in 2006 and Djokovic in 2007 were already such competitors (of course Nadal was in 2005 too, but I didn't press the matter further).

The result? He couldn't say a word after that.

8-B

oh yeah, DRII lives in his own special la la land with denial of everything that goes against his "opinion" even if facts and reality smacked him in his face 10 times. :D
 

beard

Legend
Fed in his top years had Agassi, Nadal, Hewitt, Roddick, Safin etc.
yes, Nadal was a major part of tennis in 2005-07, troll.

Hewitt, Roddick, Safin by themselves are considerably better than any of the young guys from 2014-current (i.e from 89-95 gen)
Even Nalbandian, Davydenko are clearly better.
You'll just be laughed at more and more for ridiculous posts if you continue the same.
Get yourself back to reality from the la la land.
Agassi? Really? Really!?
Safin, Hewitt, RodDick? Are you kidding? They are better than lost generations, but not better than Nadal, Federer, Wawa, Đoković, Murray... why faugh for slams simultaneously, in better form, and with higher tennis greatness, than those Federer pigeons from 2004-8... Those great players had to split slams, in contrary to Fed who picked them like apples from tree, except on clay, where really was great Claydal... See the difference?
End of discussion on topic for me...
 

JackGates

Legend
Agassi? Really? Really!?
Safin, Hewitt, RodDick? Are you kidding? They are better than lost generations, but not better than Nadal, Federer, Wawa, Đoković, Murray... why faugh for slams simultaneously, in better form, and with higher tennis greatness, than those Federer pigeons from 2004-8... Those great players had to split slams, in contrary to Fed who picked them like apples from tree, except on clay, where really was great Claydal... See the difference?
End of discussion on topic for me...
You have zero respect for tennis if you call any pro a pigeon, so why should we have any respect for you?
 

beard

Legend
You have zero respect for tennis if you call any pro a pigeon, so why should we have any respect for you?
I don't ask respect from anyone on some ****n internet forum :oops:
Those pros was good players, but just a pigeons of better player...
 
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