Tennis Abstract's Predictions 2021 USO Men's

[James P]

Tennis Abstract's Elo-based prediction model for the 2021 US Open Men's singles competition. Kind of surprised at how high Medvedev is compared to Djokovic. They have relatively even odds. Also surprised a bit that Rublev rates higher than Tsitsipas and that Sinner is rated #7 overall.

Seed (Rank)	Name	Nationality	4R	QF	SF	F	W
1 (1)	Novak Djokovic	Serbia	81.5%	74.4%	65.3%	44.3%	27.6%
2 (2)	Daniil Medvedev	Russia	82.7%	75.4%	66.1%	46.9%	27.5%
4 (4)	Alexander Zverev	Germany	82.6%	68.4%	54.7%	31.9%	18.3%
5 (7)	Andrey Rublev	Russia	74.7%	60.6%	38.5%	19.1%	8.5%
3 (3)	Stefanos Tsitsipas	Greece	63.8%	55.1%	35.4%	18.2%	8.4%
9 (12)	Pablo Carreno Busta	Spain	54.5%	38.9%	15.8%	6.3%	2.3%
13 (16)	Jannik Sinner	Italy	64.8%	20.2%	10.9%	3.6%	1.1%
6 (8)	Matteo Berrettini	Italy	35.7%	22.1%	6.4%	2.2%	0.6%
19 (22)	John Isner	USA	37.5%	23.1%	6.5%	2.3%	0.6%
25 (28)	Karen Khachanov	Russia	36.8%	18.1%	5.6%	1.7%	0.5%

This was everyone that rated at least a 0.5% chance of winning the title, per Tennis Abstract. Others interesting players:

#7 Denis Shapovalov (0.1%), #8 Casper Ruud (0.4%), #10 Hubert Hurkacz (0.4%), #11 Diego Schwartzman (0.2%), #12 Felix Auger-Aliassime (0.3%), #15 Grigor Dimitrov (0.2%), #18 Roberto Bautista Agut (0.2%), #21 Aslan Karatsev (0.1%), #22 Reilly Opelka (0.1%), #23 Ugo Humbert (0.3%), #24 Daniel Evans (0.1%), #26 Cameron Norrie (0.2%), #29 Alejandro Davidovich Fokina (0.1%), #30 Marin Cilic (0.1%), Marton Fucsovics (0.4%), Sebastian Korda (0.1%), Andy Murray (0.1%)

https://tennisabstract.com/current/2021USOpenMenForecast.html

 

[fundrazer]

Guessing Medvedev's chances would be lower if he was on opposite side of draw. Not sure exactly how this was calculated, but I assume that is factored in.

 

[James P]

Guessing Medvedev's chances would be lower if he was on opposite side of draw. Not sure exactly how this was calculated, but I assume that is factored in.

Yeah, there's an Elo-based system wherein they run the percentage chances of winning each match. Each round they calculate the percentage chance of meeting another opponent and run the percentage chance of beating all of the possible opponents. So yeah, definitely factors in whom you will likely meet.

 

[TripleATeam]

I agree that Medvedev at this point should probably be getting better odds than +375 or so, implying probability of 21% or so. Meanwhile Djokovic is probably overvalued at -138. If I were a betting man, I'd be getting the best bang for the buck on Med.

 

[Tennisfan339]

It's a tossup between the 3 top seeds for me. Slightly advantage for Djokovic, maybe 40-30-30... Or 35-30-30 if I give the rest a small percentage.
If Zverev ended up in Medvedev's half I would've said 60-20-20 but Djokovic-Zverev in SF and Medvedev's catewalk changes my perspective.

If Medvedev didn't have such an unexpected upset in Cincinnati (+ potential injury) and had he won the 2 Masters, I would rank him way above Zverev and maybe 50-50 with Djokovic. But that loss vs Rublev looked bad. He'd never dropped a set in 4 matches against him, was in total control of the match and brutally crumbled. He looked completely gassed out, that was weird. Will he start the USO in full confidence? Thankfully he avoids Hurkacz and a lot of dangerous players so even with his C game he could easily reach the final. But in case he faces Djokovic or Zverev in final I don't think he'd be favorite of the match. The difference of level between the final and the other rounds could be brutal.
The other 2 are an enigma right now. Zverev has the most confidence right now but as we all know he's never beaten a top-10 in a slam. Can he beat the world #1 and #2 in a slam semifinal and final? If he keeps the same level I can see him crushing everyone and win, but I'm almost certain he'll have a mental breakdown at some point. He always has, in slams. The first 2 sets in RG against Tsitsipas and the FAA match in Wimbledon show that he is still a choker in slams. Djokovic said he had multiple small injuries after the Olympics, he skipped both Masters... No one really knows if he's 100% healthy. Plus USO has always been his worst slam IMO... he has lost MANY matches he should've won, which can't be said in the other slams (including RG). He's still favorite because it's BO5 and he hasn't lost a match with this format this year, but his margin is short...
If I had to pick 1 other player and say he has a tiny chance, I'd say Shapopalov. I know he hasn't won a match since Wimbledon but if he wins his first rounds he could be dangerous. On a good day he can upset everyone, that can't be said for Sinner, Auger, Ruud or the other next gens... Carreno-Busta and Rublev can make a QF, maybe a Semi but not more.

So basically:
Djokovic 35%
Medvedev 30%
Zverev 30%
Shapopalov 3%
Tsitsipas 1%
The rest 1%

 

[socallefty]

75% chance of winning Wimbledon and 50% chance of winning the USO equates to 37.5% of winning the CYGS. Wonder what the oddsmakers think as I’m sure you can lay a bet on that after today.

I stand by my prediction after the FO that he has a 50% chance to win the US Open against the field. He used to be bothered by the swirling wind at Ashe stadium, but now that they’ve added the roof, it seems to have made this issue less of a problem. Novak defaulted his last match at the last two USOs, won in 2018 and skipped 2017 - so, his last complete match loss was in the 2016 final.

 

[ChrisRF]

For me the strangest thing is Djokovic allegedly having an 18.5 % chance (almost 1/5) to NOT survive the first 3 rounds. That's ridiculous IMO.

 

[Amen786]

For me the strangest thing is Djokovic allegedly having an 18.5 % chance (almost 1/5) to NOT survive the first 3 rounds. That's ridiculous IMO.

Yes.
I mean when was the last time any of the big 3 ever lose in R1 to R3? Maybe all the way back to 2013 when roger lost to steakhovacksky in Wimbledon R64.
Even An on-the-crutches roger succefully managed to win 3 & 4 matches at French open & Wimbledon this year.

 

[ChrisRF]

Yes.
I mean when was the last time any of the big 3 ever lose in R1 to R3? Maybe all the way back to 2013 when roger lost to steakhovacksky in Wimbledon R64.
Even An on-the-crutches roger succefully managed to win 3 & 4 matches at French open & Wimbledon this year.

It happened a few more time, for example Federer against Seppi at AO 2015, Djokovic against Querrey at Wimbledon 2016 and Nadal multiple times in faster conditions.

However, Djokovic going out before R16 when competing for the CYGS sounds lunatic.

 

[James P]

One week later, Medvedev, due to his half crumbling, is the new favorite. This is how we're looking:

Seed (Rank)	Name	Nationality	QF	SF	F	W
2 (2)	Daniil Medvedev	Russia	91.1%	81.2%	73.0%	40.8%
1 (1)	Novak Djokovic	Serbia	89.8%	75.8%	49.6%	30.5%
4 (4)	Alexander Zverev	Germany	78.1%	67.9%	36.2%	20.5%
6 (8)	Matteo Berrettini	Italy	91.7%	19.8%	6.3%	1.9%
14 (11)	Diego Schwartzman	Argentina	74.3%	12.9%	7.5%	1.4%
15 (12)	Felix Auger-Aliassime	Canada	58.3%	38.3%	7.9%	1.4%
16 (13)	Jannik Sinner	Italy	21.9%	14.2%	3.8%	1.2%
(55)	Carlos Alcaraz	Spain	75.8%	32.7%	4.9%	0.6%
(50)	Frances Tiafoe	USA	41.7%	24.3%	3.9%	0.5%

That's everyone with a 0.5% chance. Opelka clocks in at 0.4%, Harris and Evans at 0.3% each, Brooksby at 0.2%. All three qualifiers have a 0.0% chance according to the elo based model.

Source: https://tennisabstract.com/current/2021USOpenMenForecast.html

 

[DSH]

Again I ask the question, if the logic occurs (and we already know that it does not always happen), can Djokovic, over 34 years old, beat Berettini, Zverev and Medvedev consecutively?

 

[James P]

Hard to say. I think he can, I still think he probably will, but that's a murderers row if it plays out that way.

 

[socallefty]

Hard to say. I think he can, I still think he probably will, but that's a murderers row if it plays out that way.

If Berrettini, Zverev and Medvedev is a murderer‘s row with zero Slam titles between them, how about the 2021 French Open later rounds when he beat Berrettini, Nadal and Tsitsipas back-back-back - at least Nadal has 20 Slams including 13 FOs. If he can do that, he can do this too if he plays up to the same form.

 

[James P]

If Berrettini, Zverev and Medvedev is a murderer‘s row with zero Slam titles between them, how about the 2021 French Open later rounds when he beat Berrettini, Nadal and Tsitsipas back-back-back - at least Nadal has 20 Slams including 13 FOs. If he can do that, he can do this too if he plays up to the same form.

That French Open run was impressive.

 

[James P]

QF Bump:

Seed (Rank)	Name	Nationality	SF	F	W
2 (2)	Daniil Medvedev	Russia	95.5%	85.0%	45.4%
1 (1)	Novak Djokovic	Serbia	83.1%	49.7%	28.4%
4 (4)	Alexander Zverev	Germany	87.9%	44.2%	22.9%
12 (15)	Felix Auger-Aliassime	Canada	60.3%	9.4%	1.5%
6 (8)	Matteo Berrettini	Italy	16.9%	4.3%	1.1%
(55)	Carlos Alcaraz	Spain	39.7%	4.3%	0.5%
(46)	Lloyd Harris	South Africa	12.1%	1.7%	0.3%
(117)	Botic Van de Zandschulp	Netherlands	4.5%	1.3%	0.1%

Same source, updated: https://tennisabstract.com/current/2021USOpenMenForecast.html

 

[Third Serve]

I don't like seeing Med over Djokovic there... reminds me too much of the other HC Slam this year.

 

[James P]

Relative strengths of the two halves are night and day.

 

[Bubcay]

Relative strengths of the two halves are night and day.

Yes, Medvedev has a walk in a park to the finals. Djokovic not so much.

 

[socallefty]

Wonder what the %s looked like at the QF stage of the AO and the FO.

 

[James P]

Wonder what the %s looked like at the QF stage of the AO and the FO.

I don't think there's any way to figure that out, which is why I keep updating it.

 

[tudwell]

Relative strengths of the two halves are night and day.

Still – if my math is right, they give Djokovic “just” a 57% chance of winning the final, should he make it (28.4/49.7… unless I’m going about this all wrong?). Meaning a 43% chance he loses. That seems way too high. If it’s anyone but Medvedev he’s like 90%+ to win the final, and given that there’s still a (slight) possibility that Medvedev doesn’t make the final, that seems to imply TA thinks Novak has even less than a 57% chance of beating Medvedev. I can’t imagine him being less than 65-35 against the Russian, and that’s still pretty generous to Medvedev when you consider Australia and their overall slam results this season.

 

[TripleATeam]

I don't think there's any way to figure that out, which is why I keep updating it.

Well if the relative elos still exist from back then, we can use the elo formula and normalize at every stage to reverse-engineer the answer.

 

[James P]

Still – if my math is right, they give Djokovic “just” a 57% chance of winning the final, should he make it (28.4/49.7… unless I’m going about this all wrong?). Meaning a 43% he loses. That seems way too high. If it’s anyone but Medvedev he’s like 90%+ to win the final, and given that there’s still a (slight) possibility that Medvedev doesn’t make the final, that seems to imply TA thinks Novak has even less than a 57% chance of beating Medvedev. I can’t imagine him being less than 65-35 against the Russian, and that’s still pretty generous to Medvedev when you consider Australia and their overall slam results this season.

That actually might check out. Tennis Abstract has Djokovic and Medvedev neck and neck on Hard Elo. Look at the "hElo" stat in this graph, that's what they build their model off of ----> TENNIS ABSTRACT ELO

 

[James P]

Well if the relative elos still exist from back then, we can use the elo formula and normalize at every stage to reverse-engineer the answer.

I'm sure Sackman has the data, but it isn't published is what I mean.

 

[James P]

Still – if my math is right, they give Djokovic “just” a 57% chance of winning the final, should he make it (28.4/49.7… unless I’m going about this all wrong?). Meaning a 43% chance he loses. That seems way too high. If it’s anyone but Medvedev he’s like 90%+ to win the final, and given that there’s still a (slight) possibility that Medvedev doesn’t make the final, that seems to imply TA thinks Novak has even less than a 57% chance of beating Medvedev. I can’t imagine him being less than 65-35 against the Russian, and that’s still pretty generous to Medvedev when you consider Australia and their overall slam results this season.

So to answer your question from earlier...check out TENNIS ABSTRACT now. It rates the final as remarkably close. 51.3% Djokovic over 48.7% Medvedev in the final. That's about as close as it gets.

 

[Aabye5]

Tennis Abstract's Elo-based prediction model for the 2021 US Open Men's singles competition. Kind of surprised at how high Medvedev is compared to Djokovic. They have relatively even odds. Also surprised a bit that Rublev rates higher than Tsitsipas and that Sinner is rated #7 overall.

Seed (Rank)	Name	Nationality	4R	QF	SF	F	W
1 (1)	Novak Djokovic	Serbia	81.5%	74.4%	65.3%	44.3%	27.6%
2 (2)	Daniil Medvedev	Russia	82.7%	75.4%	66.1%	46.9%	27.5%
4 (4)	Alexander Zverev	Germany	82.6%	68.4%	54.7%	31.9%	18.3%
5 (7)	Andrey Rublev	Russia	74.7%	60.6%	38.5%	19.1%	8.5%
3 (3)	Stefanos Tsitsipas	Greece	63.8%	55.1%	35.4%	18.2%	8.4%
9 (12)	Pablo Carreno Busta	Spain	54.5%	38.9%	15.8%	6.3%	2.3%
13 (16)	Jannik Sinner	Italy	64.8%	20.2%	10.9%	3.6%	1.1%
6 (8)	Matteo Berrettini	Italy	35.7%	22.1%	6.4%	2.2%	0.6%
19 (22)	John Isner	USA	37.5%	23.1%	6.5%	2.3%	0.6%
25 (28)	Karen Khachanov	Russia	36.8%	18.1%	5.6%	1.7%	0.5%

This was everyone that rated at least a 0.5% chance of winning the title, per Tennis Abstract. Others interesting players:

#7 Denis Shapovalov (0.1%), #8 Casper Ruud (0.4%), #10 Hubert Hurkacz (0.4%), #11 Diego Schwartzman (0.2%), #12 Felix Auger-Aliassime (0.3%), #15 Grigor Dimitrov (0.2%), #18 Roberto Bautista Agut (0.2%), #21 Aslan Karatsev (0.1%), #22 Reilly Opelka (0.1%), #23 Ugo Humbert (0.3%), #24 Daniel Evans (0.1%), #26 Cameron Norrie (0.2%), #29 Alejandro Davidovich Fokina (0.1%), #30 Marin Cilic (0.1%), Marton Fucsovics (0.4%), Sebastian Korda (0.1%), Andy Murray (0.1%)

https://tennisabstract.com/current/2021USOpenMenForecast.html

Is recent performance weighted higher? So, the losses at the Olympics are weighted higher for Djokovic because he didn't play the warm-ups, and then of course Medvedev's draw was easier. But I don't know for certain.

 

[James P]

Is recent performance weighted higher? So, the losses at the Olympics are weighted higher for Djokovic because he didn't play the warm-ups, and then of course Medvedev's draw was easier. But I don't know for certain.

No, Elo is a continuous measure of performance on a timeline, based on whom you play, but it's unweighted.

 

[James P]

Tennis Abstract has crowned Medvedev the Hardcourt Elo King for the first time, post-USO (hElo). What that means, going forward, is that Medvedev will be favored in a H2H hardcourt match against Djokovic. (and against everyone else).

Overall Rank	Name	Age	Overall Elo	hRaw	cRaw	gRaw		hElo	cElo	gElo	Peak Elo Tournament	Peak Age	Peak Elo
2​	Daniil Medvedev​	25.5​	2144.4​	2092.6​	1713.9​	1723.4​	​	2118.5​	1929.1​	1933.9​	2021 Australian Open SF​	25.0​	2159.1​
1​	Novak Djokovic​	34.3​	2173.0​	2041.3​	2036.0​	1962.5​	​	2107.2​	2104.5​	2067.8​	2016 Miami F​	28.8​	2470.0​
3​	Alexander Zverev​	24.4​	2111.1​	2023.5​	1998.9​	1671.4​	​	2067.3​	2055.0​	1891.3​	2017 Canada F​	20.3​	2148.1​
5​	Stefanos Tsitsipas​	23.0​	2071.9​	1931.2​	2005.2​	1543.4​	​	2001.5​	2038.5​	1807.7​	2021 Roland Garros SF​	22.8​	2132.6​
4​	Rafael Nadal​	35.2​	2094.8​	1891.6​	2050.9​	1563.0​	​	1993.2​	2072.9​	1828.9​	2009 Madrid SF​	22.9​	2370.0​
6​	Roger Federer​	39.9​	2042.8​	1935.8​	1749.3​	1813.4​	​	1989.3​	1896.1​	1928.1​	2007 Dubai F​	25.6​	2382.0​
8​	Andrey Rublev​	23.9​	2019.2​	1952.6​	1827.2​	1652.8​	​	1985.9​	1923.2​	1836.0​	2021 Monte Carlo SF​	23.5​	2105.9​
9​	Dominic Thiem​	27.7​	2002.1​	1934.1​	1935.9​	1618.3​	​	1968.1​	1969.0​	1810.2​	2016 Halle R16​	22.8​	2123.2​
7​	Matteo Berrettini​	25.4​	2035.4​	1784.2​	1910.2​	1853.0​	​	1909.8​	1972.8​	1944.2​	2021 Wimbledon SF​	25.2​	2044.6​
11​	Pablo Carreno Busta​	30.1​	1968.3​	1844.1​	1867.7​	1439.8​	​	1906.2​	1918.0​	1704.1​	2021 Winston-Salem R16​	30.1​	2001.0​
13​	Jannik Sinner​	20.0​	1927.6​	1863.9​	1806.7​	1312.8​	​	1895.7​	1867.1​	1620.2​	2021 Barcelona QF​	19.7​	2022.9​
12​	Carlos Alcaraz Garfia​	18.3​	1966.0​	1790.7​	1834.1​	1441.4​	​	1878.3​	1900.1​	1703.7​	2021 Us Open R16​	18.3​	1966.0​