ForehandCross
G.O.A.T.
What I think will matter:
How Med handles Djokovic's serve down the T :
Djokovic's serve has improved many fold in terms of variety, however, Med standing that far behind would mean a little more returns and lesser free points for Novak. However I noticed against FAA, that despite Med's returning position , he has struggled with serves down the T, a serve which Djokovic likes to use in pressure situations. I think a very important question for Med tonight will be how he handles the Djokovic serve down the T.
Djokovic's shot tolerance :
There is an increasing tendency in Djokovic to cough up an error. The good news for Med is that this is happening irrespective of whether Djokovic is being defensive or offensive. While it's not that frequent that it will decide the match, but as Med likes longer rallies and his defense has really been upto the mark, I think he can make Djokovic hit more errors. So for Djokovic an important question would be if he would be able to cut down the errors.
How Med handles Djokovic's slices and variety :
FAA DOES NOT have a good slice, but he had Medvedev on the ropes when he started to use it judiciously in semis. Djokovic's slice isn't that stellar, but it's pretty effective,and the way he uses it is quite smart.
I actually do see Med struggling with Djokovic slices and change of pace and position in a rally.
How Djokovic handles Med's serves and how soon he gets a read on them :
One thing that people don't notice that I am noticing since some time is Novak not really having a feel for returning at the beginning of the match. Unlike before, he needs time to read the opponents serves. This is one of primary reason he has been losing his 1st set this year. BUT Novak inevitably starts reading them . How soon does that happen might decide a lot in this match.
How Medvedev will deal with getting many more of his 1st serve back :
This particularly killed his will in AO in 2nd set. Just did not know what to do. And this was surprising, because despite Djokovic's deep returns, Med being a master in winning rallies from disadvantageous positions should have been able to shake it off. But he did not. Ash seems faster but still a lot more serves will come back. So a huge issue for Med will be what he does with them.
How Medvedev deals with Djokovic using the net and drop shots:
This is what in my eyes as of now will win Djokovic the match. Djokovic has become a master of drop shots and uses the net to tactical perfection. At WB, as soon as Hurkacz started using forecourt Medvedev was done for. Even FAA had some success doing the same thing. Djokovic in my eyes will get outplayed from the back, but he will use the forecourt to win important points and that will be the difference.
Overall, I think Med does have his chances, if Australia hadn't happened I would even positively believe that he can win. But well Australian Open was just a disaster.
How Med handles Djokovic's serve down the T :
Djokovic's serve has improved many fold in terms of variety, however, Med standing that far behind would mean a little more returns and lesser free points for Novak. However I noticed against FAA, that despite Med's returning position , he has struggled with serves down the T, a serve which Djokovic likes to use in pressure situations. I think a very important question for Med tonight will be how he handles the Djokovic serve down the T.
Djokovic's shot tolerance :
There is an increasing tendency in Djokovic to cough up an error. The good news for Med is that this is happening irrespective of whether Djokovic is being defensive or offensive. While it's not that frequent that it will decide the match, but as Med likes longer rallies and his defense has really been upto the mark, I think he can make Djokovic hit more errors. So for Djokovic an important question would be if he would be able to cut down the errors.
How Med handles Djokovic's slices and variety :
FAA DOES NOT have a good slice, but he had Medvedev on the ropes when he started to use it judiciously in semis. Djokovic's slice isn't that stellar, but it's pretty effective,and the way he uses it is quite smart.
I actually do see Med struggling with Djokovic slices and change of pace and position in a rally.
How Djokovic handles Med's serves and how soon he gets a read on them :
One thing that people don't notice that I am noticing since some time is Novak not really having a feel for returning at the beginning of the match. Unlike before, he needs time to read the opponents serves. This is one of primary reason he has been losing his 1st set this year. BUT Novak inevitably starts reading them . How soon does that happen might decide a lot in this match.
How Medvedev will deal with getting many more of his 1st serve back :
This particularly killed his will in AO in 2nd set. Just did not know what to do. And this was surprising, because despite Djokovic's deep returns, Med being a master in winning rallies from disadvantageous positions should have been able to shake it off. But he did not. Ash seems faster but still a lot more serves will come back. So a huge issue for Med will be what he does with them.
How Medvedev deals with Djokovic using the net and drop shots:
This is what in my eyes as of now will win Djokovic the match. Djokovic has become a master of drop shots and uses the net to tactical perfection. At WB, as soon as Hurkacz started using forecourt Medvedev was done for. Even FAA had some success doing the same thing. Djokovic in my eyes will get outplayed from the back, but he will use the forecourt to win important points and that will be the difference.
Overall, I think Med does have his chances, if Australia hadn't happened I would even positively believe that he can win. But well Australian Open was just a disaster.
