What the heck was wrong with Nadal’s serve in 2011 USO F?

[metsman]

Ned's AO 09 moment. Of course in equivalent situation Ned should have been dusted in routine straights if Novak had a normal serve himself, and collapsed in the 4th, whereas Fraud gave it a huge fight for 4 before collapsing.

 

[TheFifthSet]

Djokovic has been working datass since 2014

Eh, since 2011 really. 23-12 (with Djokovic having more straight set wins than Nadal total wins, 15-12), 15-2 on HC and Clay. Sure those years are more in-line with Novak’s prime, but Nadal was the official betting favourite in over half of those matches. Djokovic won numerous matches he was not expected to win…Nadal only did it once in a big match, US Open 2013.

 

[metsman]

Nadal was mentally damaged by the injury even if he recovered physically. Properly speaking, he recovered well but not fully back to the previous level which would've needed some more time but he had none due to Peakovic breathing down his neck; Nadal not being completely back to peak enabled Djokovic to have his way with Rafa and that in turn sowed doubt in Rafito's psyche causing a mental burden that plagued Nadal in their later matches.
It's actually the sort of argument Federesians make for 2008: Fred no longer had mono by April but he needed time to get his full physicality back yet had no such time because of Peakdal breathing down his neck, etc. Very symmetric arguments if you think about it. As a tried and true Federite who nevertheless prides himself on intellectual honesty, I consider both observations to hold some very real weight.
Of course, the same can be said about Djokovic's shoulder injury in late 2011 - who knows how long he'd have been able to ride that high if it wasn't stopped so harshly? Of course he recovered back to fitness and prime level but no longer concentrated peak until some three years later. There's something for the idea that decline happens in stages due to physical difficulties. A player gets injured or ill, recovers but his level is somewhat lesser than it used to be, rinse and repeat X times in career until the final blow comes at some point.

Yes Ned 11 is in many ways analogous to Fed's 08 Wimby/09 AO, but Fed of course fought much much harder without his A game. Ned finally brought the fight at AO and turned it around until he became a sitting duck on HC, but helped a bit by Djokovic not being quite as solid of course.

Fed definitely seemed physically improved in summer 08 compared to Spring though (and in the Fall too, before the back injury in Madrid and Basel), and brought that more explosive game back at USO (and of course 09 AO), he looked more explosive there than at 08 Wimby. Many have said that Federer has three big training blocks a year, one before AO, one after AO, and one after Wimby, however he was robbed of the first two, so makes sense he'd start looking better after the 3rd one. However, Ned was basically at the same level from IW-USO so I don't think the injury affected him physically as much. He definitely didn't have much confidence against Novak going into Wimby due to the repeated losses.

Djokovic's shoulder injury is more like Fed's ankle injury. He still should have been every bit at peak when it recovered (and Fed's injury took until 06 IW to recover, Djokovic's should have been better by the new year), and certainly having a massive 3 year lull in which 12 AO was maybe even the high point is all due to his own head, nothing else. Nadal in 11 was likely going to lose a step anyways, same as Fed in 07/08. Most players lose a step by 25/26 anyways, for Ned it makes sense to happen a tad earlier since he was physically god already at 18/19.

Decline can happen due to injury and in many cases does, but loss of focus and fire is also a factor (e.g. you don't train as hard and become physically a bit worse). Borg, Mac, Pete, and Fed all saw this to some extent and obviously Agassi to a far more extreme degree (and thus was also able to train hard and recover since his fall was so extreme). Nadal to his credit has never really lost his fire.