why many people are so sure that djokovic to win 2020 AO FINAL ?

[tennisaddict]

1. Australian Open GOAT Djokovic
2. Thiem is the guy with the worst big finals (including Masters) record on all of tour basically.
3. Thiem is a known choker.
4. Theim has just come off 2 grueling matches while Djokovic has cruised and his tank is on full.



Umm you do realize Thiem is a slow court player too. His best surface is clay after all, heck nearly all his success vs Djokovic is on clay. And he is pitiful on surfaces like grass. If anything Thiem needs the conditions slow to stand a shot.

You saw YEC, which was a faster court, by today’s standards ? No point talking about Thiem from 2 years back.

If it is a slow court that weeds out nice , attacking tennis , then Novak is a lock to win

 

[forehandblast]

You saw YEC, which was a faster court, by today’s standards ? No point talking about Thiem from 2 years back.

If it is a slow court that weeds out nice , attacking tennis , then Novak is a lock to win

Djokovic was really out of it in general at the YEC. He struggled in all his matches there.

I see your point, but even his recent history suggests Thiem's best surface is still clay and his worst surface bar none is grass (fastest surface on tour, even today). He generally excels more in slow hard court events, maybe with the YEC being an exception. Even if you consider him an aggressive baseliner he has big backswings and benefits from the extra time, and also heavy spin (that is what makes his shots so effective, the combination of pace and spin, not just pace) which is much more effective on slower surfaces with a higher bounce.

 

[GabeT]

Beating the worlds best player and Zverev serving at 80 per cent which would have seen Zverev beat most yet Thiem got past him in 4.

Federer was awful against Djokovic (according to Federer that was due to injury which we have to accept i guess) and Raonic has no return or BH.

DIego was Noles best win but Diego does not have the Weapons Thiem has.

Nadal is #1 (maybe not for long) but he’s hardly the best player in HC right now. And Novak beat Nadal more convincingly a couple of weeks ago.

Novak lost only one set and was broken 7 times on the way to the final.

Thiem lost 5 sets and was broken 13 times.

Something that I haven‘t seen mentioned much is the importance of TBs. Thiem won his last two matches on the back of winning TBs. Five of the 6 sets he won against Nadal and Zverev were TBs. This is very clutch but in the final he’s facing the current TB king. Novak has won like 90% of his TBs and almost 95 % of his HC TBs in the last year. Novak has also won all 7 of TBs played this year while Thiem lost two TBs just in earlier rounds of the AO and lost 4 of 10 TBs played this year.

How good is Novak at TBs right now? Federer played 25 TBs in the last year, losing 5 of them. Of those, four he lost to Novak.

 

[James P]

I don't think anybody is "sure," so much as they are giving him the benefit of the doubt given his track record. He's the favorite and a 7 time champion. Until he gets knocked off his perch, people are going to assume he keeps on winning.

 

[Steve0904]

I think this match could be really close if Thiem brings his best, but the likelihood of that happening against Djokovic on this court is somewhere around 20% maybe, maybe less than that. Hence why Djoker is a sizable favourite.

 

[mwym]

Anyone recall Nadal being hyped (new serve bs and such) before AO19 final? Even after what Djokovic in SF he won?

Nadal entered the court scared. I guess he knew better/more. Thiem mentioned losing the final. Chances are, again, just like Nadal - he knows better/more.

Better / more than experts who generate hype to increase income their sallaries are paid from.

 

[Nadal_King]

Djokovic is not unbeatable like rafa is at rg in finals although his record says so but he hasn't got opponents in final till now which trouble him in matchups at his favourite slam like rafa has and thiem is surely a complex matchup.

 

[UnderratedSlam]

Thanks for rubbing it in but you are right. That day Courier choked. His FH sprayed more errors that match than it had for 3 years previously. He froze going for 3 in a row.

By 1994 Courier was then in a tail spin because he could not beat sampras, the aO defeat in straight sets got to him, then he lost again at Key Biscane and in FO semi v Bruguera he was by that point too impatient in rallies and a dream for Bruguera to pick off.

The mental torture Courier was going through at that time was evident when at WTF he was reading a book at the change of ends. Maybe the Moon it was. I bought it as at that time hero worshipped Courier. It was a terrible book!

He had a 5-1 lead over Medvedev, and several MPs, then lost that match. It was pitiful.

 

[Courierfh]

Nadal is #1 (maybe not for long) but he’s hardly the best player in HC right now. And Novak beat Nadal more convincingly a couple of weeks ago.

Novak lost only one set and was broken 7 times on the way to the final.

Thiem lost 5 sets and was broken 13 times.

Something that I haven‘t seen mentioned much is the importance of TBs. Thiem won his last two matches on the back of winning TBs. Five of the 6 sets he won against Nadal and Zverev were TBs. This is very clutch but in the final he’s facing the current TB king. Novak has won like 90% of his TBs and almost 95 % of his HC TBs in the last year. Novak has also won all 7 of TBs played this year while Thiem lost two TBs just in earlier rounds of the AO and lost 4 of 10 TBs played this year.

How good is Novak at TBs right now? Federer played 25 TBs in the last year, losing 5 of them. Of those, four he lost to Novak.

How can Nadal not be best on Hard courts now? Us Open and Canadian Champion and just made quarters in australia compared to djokovic last 16 in flushing meadows.

I am worried Djokovic fans are underestimating Thiem. If Djokovic has same mindset he will lose. This is a massive test. Thiem is the real deal. This might be his best surface now as well.

As i say i am not saying Djokovic will lose. But it is the hardest test he could have this event.