Why not serve two 1st serves?

[donnyz89]

Ok... if we are still on about the math issue, let me clear you up. lets assume u get 50% 1st serves in. there are 3 possibilities.

EVERYTIME u step up to serve a pt, 50% of the first serves will go in. and 50% doesnt. out of that 50% that doesnt, another 50% could go in and another 50% doesnt. so 50% of the first serves go in, and 50% OF 50% the second serve go in which is 25%, so 75% total that you will NOT doublefault everytime you step up to serve planning on serve two 50% first serves.

anyways, if your first serve is well over 75% and you win 90% of them, go for it. if not, stick with hitting an unattackable second safe serve then work the pt.

 

[chuchetta]

Scoville did this occasionally against Nadal
I think it's wise to do the 2 first serves ONE IN A WHILE to catch them off guard, but I don't know.

 

[shindemac]

To suggest that we shouldn't depend on probability on the court is naive. Better/smarter players will use the percentages to their advantages. But I'm not saying we should all use 2 first serves; Good players will know when to use another first serve, or a second serve. They also know when circumstances change during a match, and can adapt to it.

But really, this question sounds like "i just started playing tennis and i don't care to develop a second serve and don't want to dink it in anymore".

Donny, are u gonna change your sig cause it looks silly with all those errors.

 

[spirit]

Abstract probabilities aren't going to help much on the court. You've got to mix up your serves (unless you have an overpowering Sampras or Roddick type of serve). Some opponents will have more trouble handling spin and slice serves than they will a straight, flat fast serve, just like some baseball hitters have more trouble with the curve ball than they do with the fast ball. And all hitters have more success when they know if it is a fast ball or a curve ball that will be coming down the pike, so mix it up. Learn how to hit flat, top spin kick (if you can do it), and slice. And learn how to place it down the T, into the body, and out wide. And then probe your opponent to see which he/she has the most trouble with. Of course, go for a little more on your first serve, whether you are hitting it flat or with spin, and take just enough off your second to greatly increase the odds that it will go in.

I'm not saying I've mastered all this, but I'm working on it.

 

[Mountainman]

Abstract probabilities aren't going to help much on the court. You've got to mix up your serves (unless you have an overpowering Sampras or Roddick type of serve). Some opponents will have more trouble handling spin and slice serves than they will a straight, flat fast serve, just like some baseball hitters have more trouble with the curve ball than they do with the fast ball. And all hitters have more success when they know if it is a fast ball or a curve ball that will be coming down the pike, so mix it up. Learn how to hit flat, top spin kick (if you can do it), and slice. And learn how to place it down the T, into the body, and out wide. And then probe your opponent to see which he/she has the most trouble with. Of course, go for a little more on your first serve, whether you are hitting it flat or with spin, and take just enough off your second to greatly increase the odds that it will go in.

I'm not saying I've mastered all this, but I'm working on it.

I agree with this post. Since there are more than one type of serves, every type of serves should be worked on. It would be pointless to perfect a flat serve down the line with the ball going 129 miles per an hour. Taking Pete Sampras for an example, he perfected his serves. He hides it really well. When he is about to serve, the opponent have to be ready for his flat, spin, or kick. The opponent can't be ready for all three types of serve.

After learning the fundametals of serving, probability is irrelevant. Besides, there is no randomness in tennis.

 

[shindemac]

You two say probability isn't going to help on the court, then you just give examples that use probability?! Both of you mention mixing up the serve, and that means you will hit 1/3 flat, 1/3 topspin, 1/3 slice, and use the element of surprise and randomness to increase your chances. Then spirit says probe your opponent to find weaknesses. For example, you could serve a topspin to their backhand to again increase your chances. How is that not abstract probability? That is exactly what I mean that the better players will do. A beginner will not realize the weakness and not attack the backhand using topspin.

Probability doesn't mean randomness, or rolling dice, flipping coins, etc. It simply means the chance something will happen. In this case, it's abstract because you don't have hard numbers when probing their weakness. You don't know that they had 7/10 errors on their backhand, just that they had more errors on backhand. Haven't you two ever heard of playing high percentage tennis?

 

[spirit]

You two say probability isn't going to help on the court, then you just give examples that use probability?! Both of you mention mixing up the serve, and that means you will hit 1/3 flat, 1/3 topspin, 1/3 slice, and use the element of surprise and randomness to increase your chances. Then spirit says probe your opponent to find weaknesses. For example, you could serve a topspin to their backhand to again increase your chances. How is that not abstract probability? That is exactly what I mean that the better players will do. A beginner will not realize the weakness and not attack the backhand using topspin.

Probability doesn't mean randomness, or rolling dice, flipping coins, etc. It simply means the chance something will happen. In this case, it's abstract because you don't have hard numbers when probing their weakness. You don't know that they had 7/10 errors on their backhand, just that they had more errors on backhand. Haven't you two ever heard of playing high percentage tennis?

I said "abstract probabilities," which I admit is not very precise, but what I meant was probabilty based on overall statistics abstracting from specific knowledge about a particular opponents weaknesses and strengths. I need knowledge about my opponents abilities, strengths, and weaknesses and then base my serving strategy on that knowledge. You are right in that I am trying to guage the probability that a kick serve vs a flat serve is more likely to win a particular point against a specific opponent at a specific time in a match. I think the term statisticians might use for that kind of probabilities is Bayesian probabilities for probabilities based on specific knowledge surrounding the event, but I wouldn't swear by that.

Now don't get me wrong. I don't claim that I do this well, but I know enough that this is what I should be doing. I'm limited by my current level of skill in using these serves and placing them where I want them to be.

 

[Burt Turkoglu]

.....I think, in reality, you can throw the percentages and probabilities out the window.....you are not factoring in the extra pressure of missing the first.....especially on must win big points....people tend to tense up a bit on pressure points....tensing up might be okay on most shots but absolutely not on serves where one needs a loose relaxed arm, wrist and hand.....