Will Nadal beat Djokovic this year?
- Thread starter TenTan
- Start date
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Nathaniel_Near
Guest
I should think so, once or twice. Surely Nadal can still take Nole on clay; his typical level is higher and Nole won't always play like superman on clay, which is basically what he managed to do in the two 1000 finals last year.
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Nathaniel_Near
Guest
I think from here on out though I would expect Nole to win more often than not.
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Nathaniel_Near
Guest
I'm pretty sure they'll play more this year but I doubt they will dominate the year so thoroughly as last and play for example the finals of IW, Miami, Madrid AND Rome.
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Nathaniel_Near
Guest
Nadal could easily come back strong and win the RG Wimbledon double.
dudeski
Hall of Fame
Actually, I think today's performance broke the last myth about Nadal. The myth that going to 5 sets gives him an advantage over Nole because Nadal is supposed to outgrind anyone. Nope! Nole is the one who can outgrind anyone! This is it. There is nothing left for Nadal to hope to fall back on
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Nathaniel_Near
Guest
Nole might have superior talent and skill to Nadal as well as a higher tennis IQ, but he's still not the fave to beat Nadal in a RG final.
Nostradamus
Bionic Poster
Better question sounds like "Will Nadal win a Major this year ?". It is looking like Grand slam year for Novak.
tenniselbow1
Rookie
His best chance is on a slow hard court. He played at his absolute best and couldn't overcome Novak who wasn't playing at his best on this surface, giving him pretty much a zero chance elsewhere. No doubt , Rafa's best chance of winning a slam now relies on Fed and Murray taking Nole out.. I see them meeting far fewer times this coming year as well, 3 times maybe 4 at most. What needs to happen this year to end this boring match up dynamic in the sport is for Murray to break through mentally into a formidable foe to the big 3.
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Nathaniel_Near
Guest
Well they just played on a slow hard court and even though Nole had less resting time he was able to come back at Nadal and show superior natural shot-making ability and incredible fighting spirit to still pull out an iconic victory.
Last year, many of the tv commentators were saying that if Roger had not beaten Novak at the French in the semis, Nadal wouldn't have won it.
I don't mean online forums either.
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Nathaniel_Near
Guest
Last year, many of the tv commentators were saying that if Roger had not beaten Novak at the French in the semis, Nadal wouldn't have won it.
I don't mean online forums either.
Possible but I actually would have backed Nadal. Then again I backed Nadal to win this AO Final but he came up just short. I think Nole is almost wise to -- for him -- hopefully meet Nadal in this years RG finals rather than last years.
JohnnyCracker
Semi-Pro
I'm wouldn't be so confident with that statement.
They played each other twice on clay last year. How many sets did Nadal win?
Zero.
Nadal at one point was so desperate he resorted to moonballing.
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Nathaniel_Near
Guest
I remember those crazy moonballs; disgusting.
ChanceEncounter
Professional
Clay does not better suit Nadal's game than Djokovic. Djokovic's grind it out, power baseline game is actually great for clay.
However, Nadal may still have the edge at Roland Garros because he's only lost once there. He's very comfortable there. However, with the mental edge Djokovic has on Nadal widening, it's hard to say if that would matter. If Nadal doesn't sneak in a few wins against Djokovic before the FO, I'm not confident that he can beat him in the final (assuming they get there).
However, Nadal may still have the edge at Roland Garros because he's only lost once there. He's very comfortable there. However, with the mental edge Djokovic has on Nadal widening, it's hard to say if that would matter. If Nadal doesn't sneak in a few wins against Djokovic before the FO, I'm not confident that he can beat him in the final (assuming they get there).
DeShaun
Banned
It may depend on who draws Murray in their half. He wants to take it to both of these guys. Itching to tough it out with whoever he faces, whenever, wherever, Novak or Rafa it makes no difference to Andy. He wants the top spot, and has put everybody on notice, IMO, that he expects to make his run on slam finals appearances now, and if you're thinking in the semis of going through him to reach the finals, step on up--he'll fight you tooth and nail for the ticket. He seems to believe strongly that he is most deserving of playing on the last day. Whether he is or not seems to have no bearing on the strength of his belief. I think Murray could play spoiler not by so tiring out but losing to Rafa or Novak that the winner goes on to fall in the finals from fatigue, but by actually outplaying one or the other in a semis. His game was already big enough before, and now he looks ready to roll his sleeves up and quit pouting. I don't know that he counterpunches well enough, though, to beat these guys by outplaying them often enough at the crucial points, because Rafa and Novak are playing with an absolute ton of pride right now and have more experience going instantly up to another gear during thirty stroke rallies where each guy looked to have won the point already, twice. Time will tell whether Murray can go there with Rafa in a slam. He has matched Novak for the most part, a net tape here, an inch wide there.
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roysid
Hall of Fame
I would think so. Nadal was close to winning yesterday. I don't think they would meet again before clay. I don't see Nadal progressing to IW and Miami finals. Murray/Berdych and even Roger could take him out.
BTW doesn't matter much for other tournaments. It's the slams that count huge.
BTW doesn't matter much for other tournaments. It's the slams that count huge.
Sentinel
Bionic Poster
I think so too.
However, i think it also depends on whether Nole can come back to his 2011 form. If so, Nadal is toast, otherwise Nadal will run him down by mid-year. I expect this year to be like 50-50 between them at least.
Sentinel
Bionic Poster
The ITF is henceforth going to ensure we have a Roger-Rafa semi and a Rafa-Nole final. Best of both worlds. So no more Roger slams, and i think this favors Nole slightly more than Rafa.
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monfed
Guest
So let's see-
Novak probably played his most mediocre HC match with terrible serving(down to 50% in the first set), Nadal took him to 5 and was a BREAK up with 4-2 in the 5th yet Nadal STILL lost.
The 5th set domain was in Nadal's favour and with a break up and he still lost. That to me is the most telling thing of this final..Nadal's gonna think "Five setters are my specialty and I had Novak quite literally reeling but I still couldn't pull it out with a break up." That's gotta be soul crushing even for Nadal.
Novak probably played his most mediocre HC match with terrible serving(down to 50% in the first set), Nadal took him to 5 and was a BREAK up with 4-2 in the 5th yet Nadal STILL lost.
The 5th set domain was in Nadal's favour and with a break up and he still lost. That to me is the most telling thing of this final..Nadal's gonna think "Five setters are my specialty and I had Novak quite literally reeling but I still couldn't pull it out with a break up." That's gotta be soul crushing even for Nadal.
MichaelNadal
Bionic Poster
This whole "still lost" thing is a completely juvenile and idiotic way of analyzing a tennis match. Thanks for showing us how small your brain is though. CLEARLY Nadal would prefer to play the match he played last night then to have gotten taken out in straights like he did on clay last year, or given up in the last sets like at Wimbledon and the US open. Do you play tennis? Obviously you don't. "Still lost" could have been said about Novak had he lost the match last night after all the work HE put in too and the chances he had.
ChanceEncounter
Professional
The difference here is that, even if Djokovic isn't playing at his best, he can still hurt Nadal because he's one of the few players out there that can boss Nadal around from the baseline. Nadal has to adjust his game to hurt Djokovic, and that's more mentally taxing than playing your usual game and winning.
Djokovic has to play his usual game at a high enough level to win. Nadal needs to change up his usual game and play the modified game at a higher level to win. That's tougher.
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monfed
Guest
Nadal was up a break leading 4-2 in the 5th(look at Nadal's 5 set record FFS) and lost from THERE. When has that EVER happened in Nadal's career?
Sorry to say but the match was on Nadal's racquet in the 5th set ESPECIALLY being a break up and he blew it. This is why it's so telling imo.
Mike Sams
G.O.A.T.
A focused Nadal barely won the first set 7-5 against the worst version of Djoker we've ever seen who hit 19 UEs in that set alone. The match was always on Djokovic's racquet. The fact that Nadal was up 4-2 in the final set and got his serve broken two times to lose 5-7 shows how difficult Djokovic is to hold off. Remember Federer/Djokovic AO 2011? Federer to serve out the set at 5-3 up and got broken twice to lose it 5-7?
It shows what it takes just to hold serve against Djokovic.
ChanceEncounter
Professional
Agreed. A lot of people claim someone has the advantage or they 'choked' when they don't understand the mathematics of tennis.
Novak Djokovic is a breakpoint generating machine. When you let someone win 40%+ of the points on your serve, you're just asking to get broken on a good number of games. What you may view as a choke is, in many ways, a mathematical likelihood.
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monfed
Guest
Sure, but it's the 5th set of a GS final reaching the 6 hour mark is what we're talking about. Not to mention Nadal's strong 5 set record(He was leading 30-15 in that game being 4-2 up and made a hash of a makeable winner).
Novak was in Nadal's territory in that 5th set but managed to pull it out which is why I think this is Nadal's most damaging loss of his career. I think this loss will make Nadal less clutch going forward.
Mike Sams
G.O.A.T.
It was a damaging loss indeed. How much confidence can you have left knowing that the guy whom you lost to had played a 5 set war prior, had less recovery time than you, and still had more energy than you in the final set? :shock:
MichaelNadal
Bionic Poster
I don't think he had more energy than Rafa, he had the confidence and mental calmness to make better shot choices late in the 5th. The slice Rafa hit into the net the last time he got broken at 5-6 for example was a bad shot choice.
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monfed
Guest
Nope , Nadal's body language was CLEARLY better than Novak and was the fitter of the two. The only reason why Novak won is BECAUSE of his self belief that he can beat Nadal , something Murray or even Federer lack(unless its on a fast HC).
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monfed
Guest
More than this I feel that not many people gave Novak a chance when the match entered the 5th(look at the results thread). Nadal pulled out the breaker from his a** being 3-5 down and had ALL the momentum going into the fifth.
Infact I know people who said if the match was a 5 setter then it would clearly favour Nadal. I mean just look at Nadal's stellar 5 set record. He barely loses if it goes to a fifth.
MichaelNadal
Bionic Poster
Finally something we can agree on then. What does bode well for Rafa though is the mental margin isn't as big as it was last year. He did go for really big serves, FH's DTL etc during this match though, and he will get him sometime this year.
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monfed
Guest
There are two ways Nadal can look at this defeat -
1) I almost got him. Next time I'll get him.
2) I got so close yet couldn't do it. Don't think I'll ever get him again.
Most players generally go the second route. Will Nadal too?
DeShaun
Banned
He will seek to balance going for it often enough on first serves in getting so many cheap points with losing 60% of points on second serve. . .he has to go for his first serves at this point, there is no tuning back, he cannot roll it in unless he wants to face constant pressure holding serve against Novak.
Also, to my eye Novak's body language looked better than Rafa's.
TennisFan3
Talk Tennis Guru
In all seriousness, I do think there is upside to Nadal's game, if he's committed to it. I've seen Nadal practice 2 times LIVE standing VERY close to where he was hitting the balls. I can tell you, he can generate pace and penetration like no one's business on a practice court. Of course a real match is different but he's definitely capable of offensive shotmaking.
He needs to force himself to get out of his comfort zone and try to have better court positioning and more aggression in all of his matches. Not just against Novak, but everyone right from round 1.
If he does this, he may have chances to beat Djoko in the future. If he doesn't, then he will NEVER beat Djoko again. I also hope that he can get some outside advice for his serve, ROS etc..
MichaelNadal
Bionic Poster
Do you know ANYTHING about Nadal? He got beaten 6 times in a row last year, did he get closer or farther this time? What did he say in his presser after the match? Surely you know the answer to this already.
DeShaun
Banned
duplicate poast
DeShaun
Banned
Setting up 100mph inside out forehand winners takes its toll physically--a lot of running--can be done but for brief stretches in matches between two evenly matched players.
Lsmkenpo
Hall of Fame
There was a very fine line between him getting closer or further in this match.
Look at the overall play and I honestly can't say he was much closer now than the US Open final.
Sure he fought hard, but in terms of his play not much difference, if anything Djokovic played at a lower level this match than the 6 previous.
MichaelNadal
Bionic Poster
Djokovic played a trashy match in the US Open final too, and Nadal didn't slice, come forward, hit inside out, or down the line with his FH or BH nearly as much as he did yesterday. There's not a tennis analyst on this planet that will say Rafa played better at the USO last year.
DeShaun
Banned
Djokovic clearly does not want to make it a habit of playing five sets >4 hours vs. Murray, being left with ~36 hours to recover, before playing five more sets ~6 hours vs. Nadal.
