Prediction: if Djokovic wins RG this year, if Djokovic doesnt win RG this year

[Deleted member 743561]

By that point it was already extremely clear Federer was the underdog to Nadal on clay. Now I can see the Rome match giving some hope, and going up 6-1, 2-0 increasing that hope, but again once Nadal got back on serve in the 2nd set in that RG final he took complete control. There was never a point Federer got even close to winning, nor was he ever expected to win before the match either. It is obvious we aren't going to agree on this at all.

Djokovic has both had far higher/more realistic expectations to either beat Nadal at the French, or win the title/final (eg- last year), and has come much closer (particularly in 2013) to doing so. Add to that he still hasn't won RG. He has had far more obvious and significant dissapointments at RG than Federer.

Djokovic lost the 2015 final as the heavy favorite, lost after being up a break late in the 5th set with that questionable netchord point in the defacto final in 2013 vs Nadal in the semis, and was beaten in a huge upset by Federer in the semis when nearly everyone still believes he would have been the slight favorite over Nadal in the final in 2011. Federer' by contrast lost 4 fairly standard 4 setters as the clear underdog to Nadal in 2005, 2006, 2007, and 2011 (2005 maybe less clear at the actual time, but atleast in hindsight more clear). No comparision that I see.

I feel like their suffering at this tournament is very comparable. So, not debating that further. Respectfully.

One of your last points here, though... regarding the 2011 Final (after Fed had miraculously stopped the Djok-train, in the SFs)... that, in itself, was pretty crushing. Ran out of gas at the end there... but he was hanging very close in that match. Would have been a royal crowning achievement, with the double slam, and doing it after having beaten the unbeatable. It's up there. Different kind of disappointment. Fed was a very distant #3 seed going into that tournament.

 

[djokerer]

So Djokovic will win 1, 2 or 3 RG's...Bold prediction! You should also add 0 just to cover yourself.

He did say 0 as well.
Rofl
Dumbest prediction ever

 

[every7]

But maybe winning a 1000 on clay was all some people needed to see (regardless of any carry-over value). RG seems to think there's some correlation. Maybe a jinx attempt, though.

I didn't know @Djokovic2011 was running the Roland Garros Social Media division

 

[mattosgrant]

Well now that it happened this year I will stick with my original call and say Djokovic ends with either 2 or 3 RG titles.

 

[Djokovic2015]

Well now that it happened this year I will stick with my original call and say Djokovic ends with either 2 or 3 RG titles.

Grinding out RG titles on the wrong side of 30 is the most physically taxing thing to do. It looked possible last year because there weren't any young clay challengers on the horizon, but I think by 2018 Thiem will be there based on what we saw this year. I think Novak has to win again next year to win another RG. I really doubt he gets to 3, but I hope he does because he is to me the 3rd best open era clay court player (and peak ELO agrees with this) so having 3 RGs would place him there on accomplishment as well for greatness.

I think he will still have chances at the other less grindy majors for another 3-4 years though.

 

[mattosgrant]

Grinding out RG titles on the wrong side of 30 is the most physically taxing thing to do. It looked possible last year because there weren't any young clay challengers on the horizon, but I think by 2018 Thiem will be there based on what we saw this year. I think Novak has to win again next year to win another RG. I really doubt he gets to 3, but I hope he does because he is to me the 3rd best open era clay court player (and peak ELO agrees with this) so having 3 RGs would place him there on accomplishment as well for greatness.

I think he will still have chances at the other less grindy majors for another 3-4 years though.

Well I dont think he is going to dominate RG or clay. I think he has a window of winning for the next 4 years. I think he will get 1 or 2 out of those 4.

I think Thiem will be a great clay courter and win atleast 2 RG titles, but I dont think he will ever dominate clay like Nadal, so I dont think Djokovic will be shut of of having a chance while he is still a top 5 player at minimum.

If Djokovic does somehow get to 3 RG titles he absolutely will hands down be the 3rd best of the Open Era on clay. He might even have a case with only 2 RG titles.