falstaff78
Hall of Fame
Recently I came across some posts still ridiculing the notion that Federer was in decline after 2007. I have posted previously on this topic, but, inspired by the above posts, I would like to present some further evidence.
Federer's win percentages by season tell quite a story of decline (93-95% from '04-'06, 88% in '07, 82-84% from '08-'11, and 86% in '12). Of course it is conceivable (though unlikely) that these declining win percentages could have been the result of the entire field getting stronger between 2008 and 2012. To disprove this notion, in a previous thread about historical performances by age I had argued that after the age of 26, performances decline swiftly for all but a few outliers.
The two tables below track Federer's performances in Finals+SFs and QF+R16 matches respectively. (I have lumped together the years in the analysis for simplicity, but I present all the break-outs by year as an appendix below - rest assured they don't change the story)
The table below provides CLEAR evidence that against the top guys, ie in semis and finals he was SIMPLY NOT the same player from 2008 and on, that he was in the golden years 2004-2007.
There is a theory that Federer's level stayed the same after 2007, but that the levels of Murray, Nadal and Djokovic rose, and THAT was the cause of Federer's worse results. To dismiss this theory, please look at the table below, which shows that Federer's performances in semis and finals, against everyone EXCLUDING the Murray, Nadal and Djokovic, also declined after 2007. (Thanks to Tennis Fanatic 070 for the suggestion)
Here is a final table looking at Federer's performances in quarters and rounds of 16. It provides evidence that in these rounds (and presumably earlier ones) Federer's level did not decline after 2007. While consistent performances in middle rounds cannot possibly lead us to conclude that Federer's overall level did not decline, this table might explain the obstinate persistence of the belief that Federer's peak extended post-2007.
Hope this is helpful
- F
Federer's win percentages by season tell quite a story of decline (93-95% from '04-'06, 88% in '07, 82-84% from '08-'11, and 86% in '12). Of course it is conceivable (though unlikely) that these declining win percentages could have been the result of the entire field getting stronger between 2008 and 2012. To disprove this notion, in a previous thread about historical performances by age I had argued that after the age of 26, performances decline swiftly for all but a few outliers.
The two tables below track Federer's performances in Finals+SFs and QF+R16 matches respectively. (I have lumped together the years in the analysis for simplicity, but I present all the break-outs by year as an appendix below - rest assured they don't change the story)
The table below provides CLEAR evidence that against the top guys, ie in semis and finals he was SIMPLY NOT the same player from 2008 and on, that he was in the golden years 2004-2007.
There is a theory that Federer's level stayed the same after 2007, but that the levels of Murray, Nadal and Djokovic rose, and THAT was the cause of Federer's worse results. To dismiss this theory, please look at the table below, which shows that Federer's performances in semis and finals, against everyone EXCLUDING the Murray, Nadal and Djokovic, also declined after 2007. (Thanks to Tennis Fanatic 070 for the suggestion)
Here is a final table looking at Federer's performances in quarters and rounds of 16. It provides evidence that in these rounds (and presumably earlier ones) Federer's level did not decline after 2007. While consistent performances in middle rounds cannot possibly lead us to conclude that Federer's overall level did not decline, this table might explain the obstinate persistence of the belief that Federer's peak extended post-2007.
Hope this is helpful
- F
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