As the thread title implies, I wanted to know what the highest *realistic* level you can reach is without ever taking tennis lessons or group instruction. Assuming you're a human backboard with limited ground strokes...
This is an assumption that you shouldn't be making; that without instruction your strokes must be limited.
I can't speak for anyone else but myself, but I've never had any formal training whatsoever. I learned tennis by hitting against a wall over and over and over again, many hours a day, many days a week. I've never actually played a match that "mattered" but when I was a member of a tennis club I hit with the few who were beyond the 4.5 level and I could keep up and we hit very competitively. Even just this past month I was at the Nats and I could hit with the juniors there. When I played "points" I won some rounds and lost some. I was always competitive and normally had at least seven points when I lost (games were first to 10 or 11), not bad or great I guess, but competitive, at least I think so anyway *shrug*.
When I'm on, I play very, very well. That may sound like a "duh" statement to make but there is a stark difference between me being on vs. not that coached players don't have. Yeah, they have off days to but the level isn't night and day (of course to them it is but they can also hold a ten or twenty ball rally, what they lose is more of that consistency for aggressive "go for the lines/winner" type of ball). When I'm not in sync my unforced errors rise dramatically and it's almost never because I'm "rushed" by my opponent (hence more of a forced error).
This is when I miss not having the background fundamentals and the muscle memory from them being drilled into me at a young age. There really aren't any procedures, drills or memories that I can tap into to get myself back in sync and it's easy to get lost trying to "think" of why I may not be playing well and make it even worse. Compare that with baseball which I did have the coaching in, and, for example, I can correct for fielding or hitting form to get back "in sync".
Where I've found I differ from the majority of rec players I've come across is the time I've put in to develop, and in this regard, it's noticeably higher by several hours a week. My overall shot timing to hit on a pace and spin level consistent with the afore mentioned experiences is that result of hitting again and again and again while making those wall shot targets smaller and smaller and smaller over the last few years. What I don't have a lot of is the innate sense of the court dimensions that one gets having grown up learning on the actual court. So when I am out of sync I have the tendency to hit long. Not by much but a half of foot out is still out.
So the point to the OP is that you can conceivably go as far as you are physically able to go so long as you are willing to put in the work and dedication required. There is no doubt that there are gaps in my game but if I could get dedicated time to work on them, I also know I would very quickly close those gaps. I don't believe for one second that I am somehow "special" and if I can get where I am today, gaps and all, anyone can and reach or exceed past my level, although a lot more court time would be a good idea to be sure.