The toughest draw of all time: Nadal at Wimbledon 2019
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Nadalgaenger
G.O.A.T.
Agree with OP.
If Nadal carves his way through this draw and wins Wimbledon, he is the GOAT in my book.
I don’t think he will, fwiw.
I’m still going with my dark horse pick of Zverev!
If Nadal carves his way through this draw and wins Wimbledon, he is the GOAT in my book.
I don’t think he will, fwiw.
I’m still going with my dark horse pick of Zverev!
Lleytonstation
Talk Tennis Guru
This draw is above average, but no where close to an all time hardest draw. You cant create a top 5 hardest draw of all time with this current crop of players.
I give you NK could be difficult (or could essentially be a walk over). Tsonga could be difficult (but to act like he is some insanely good tennis player at this point in his career is over the top). After that, you have Cilic who has looked terrible all year (Rafa fans ripped Feds finals against him saying Cilic was a weak opponent). But even if I give you him, your QF (if Thiem even gets past round 1) is not worthy of a QF on grass. Nishi would be tougher. Then you have a 38 year old Fed and Djoker (been this way for about a decade).
Not a cakewalk, and hardest of the three, but to say most difficult draw of all time? Man do we forget how competitive tennis used to be.
Nadalgaenger
G.O.A.T.
All legitimate points you make here.
I suppose that the draw on paper is one of the best ever, but current form is all that matters, as you point out. If all those guys magically play near peak level, then yes, this draw is about as hard as it gets.
For the record, one of two things will almost certainly happen:
1) Nadal won’t make it through his draw, so this won’t matter.
2) One or more guys in the “murderer’s row” of a draw will play like crap and get upset. Kyrgios and Cilic seem like the biggest suspects here.
Lleytonstation
Talk Tennis Guru
Lets put it this way. By the time the finals rolls around, we will be able to revisit this thread, and by that time, we will know whether this was ridiculous or true. We will be able to tell by the level of matches how in form these guys truly were. Then again, if Rafa loses, then it will go down as the hardest ever of course...
Nadalgaenger
G.O.A.T.
I completely agree.
Assuming Nadal actually plays all these guys AND they are in good/excellent form, I’d give him at best a 15% of winning Wimbledon.
Just getting through Fed/Novak is maybe a 25% proposition (again, assuming he plays both).
He’ll probably end up against Nishikori in SF and Dimitrov in F lol.
Crisstti
Legend
They're weak for a final. Not for early rounds.
Lleytonstation
Talk Tennis Guru
I don't think he is arguing that it is weak (just like I am not), but that it is not some insane draw worthy of the greatest draw ever.
Benjamin Rio
Professional
Kyrgios would be 152 in the world at the race without the Acapulco event. He's currently out of form
Benjamin Rio
Professional
Lleytonstation
Talk Tennis Guru
But but but, he has a big serve...
D
Deleted member 307496
Guest
Federer at Wimbledon an easy opponent.. only if you're braindead.
Guess you forget about Fed going undefeated against Nadal in 2017 or does only the French Open this year count?
Muppet.
Sentinel
Bionic Poster
It's a shame that other nadal fans don't have confidence in him.
Thanks for believing in the Bull.
goldenboot
New User
I wouldn't have a clue what the toughest draw of all time was, but it definitely is tough
If he somehow won the title on this path it would be one of his greatest slam wins, no?
If he somehow won the title on this path it would be one of his greatest slam wins, no?
aman92
Legend
It will be the greatest slam victory in the history of tennis considering the surface, his age and the level of his opponents
Tennis_Hands
Banned
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tennis_pro
Bionic Poster
This is uncharted territory for Nadal - a tough draw. I dont think Nadal will survive
Mentally that is, he still cannot believe, no?
Mentally that is, he still cannot believe, no?
Tennis_Hands
Banned
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The Shape-shifter
Rookie
Well, he is more likely to end up meeting Kandy/Raonic than Khachanov in SF lol.
StrongRule
Talk Tennis Guru
No reverse jinxing here. Kyrgios is a servebot who is 5-0 up in tie breaks against Nadal. And he always plays his best against Nadal.
MichaelNadal
Bionic Poster
The first set will be crucial. If Nadal wins it, Nick won't be up for the fight. If Rafa loses it, watch out.
StrongRule
Talk Tennis Guru
Nadal won the first set in their last match. Kyrgios just never gives up against him. Not happening.
D
Deleted member 77403
Guest
I would agree with you on this one.
MichaelNadal
Bionic Poster
Oh I don't plan on him giving up
just if Nadal wins the first set, Nick isn't taking 3 of the next 4.StrongRule
Talk Tennis Guru
Nadal can only hope for Kyrgios to lose in the first round, otherwise the tournament is over for him. In their 2014 match Kyrgios brought one of the best serving performances ever-37 aces, leave alone other strong serves. You could barely do anything to break him. Still, Nadal could (and should) have done better on the tie breaks.
MichaelNadal
Bionic Poster
Tennis_Hands
Banned
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I disagree that it is the hardest of the three. Djokovic has FAA, Tsitsipas, Medvedev, Khachanov etc. The players that are either up and coming or are in huge form coming in. Cilic in the worst form in at least 4 years, grass cripple Thiem and washed up Tsonga won't compensate that.
Naturally, the hardest part of the draw is that Nadal will have to eventually play consecutively Federer/Djokovic, but that is punishing them for being Federer and Djokovic. Besides, I fully expect upsets in Djokovic's half, and that is the "X" factor that is missing as difficulty in Nadal's part of the draw.
I simply can't agree with this even though Nole struggles more against the young ones than the old foes. It's best of 5 and nobody but Tsitsi ever did anything of note in a slam. Felix is yet to win a slam match (!), Tsitsi is poor on grass, Khachanov has a whole lot of work to do to even get to Nole, Z is a non-factor all season, and Medvedev is an oversized server/grinder which is a combo I can't even understand.
Chances of any one of them even making it to Nole are slim at best. Can't really see who has the game to trouble him on grass. I would sooner bet on Nole playing sth like Monfils-Goffin-Raonic and going through them fairly easily.
moonballs
Hall of Fame
So in 2008-2012 the Fed-Djoker SF era, neither Fed or Djoker ever faced dangerous early round opponents? Think a little.
Tennis_Hands
Banned
Bolded: we will see about that soon enough.
The dangers at Wimbledon in recent times has always been associated with upsets from guys that are not on the map as serious contenders who are good for a couple of rounds, before their stamina, luck or experience run out. All the players I mentioned fit that profile. Monfls is not going to make it to Djokovic, I think. Goffin is also suspect, especially when he has to play several rounds around highly talented guys. Raonic is a possibility as his serve can carry him far, but these guys, if they get to him, are also quite good in their own right, and have more rounded games to boot.
I really don't see what the fuss about Nadal's draw is. Tsonga has been a liability ever since that famous win against Fed. He cannot string together three good matches in a row, and even playing out of his mind couldn't down Fed in best of three. I predict a clean 3 sets win for Nadal, should they meet (or 4 set win, if Tsonga gets really hot for a set and clinch a TB). Cilic is in the worst form in the last 4 years, so unless he can play to his previous level I don't see him doing any better against Nadal than against Schwartzman. Thiem is the most in form player in Nadal's quarter, but he is an absolute mug on grass, and even if he reaches Nadal which I doubt, he will be a dispatched in three sets.
nochweiterroger
Rookie
This would be a tough draw if the 'tough' opponents weren't in the doldrums. Cilic? He's done nothing this year. Thiem has never been good on grass, but I think he may do better this year, but it won't be enough, Kyrgios will withdraw/tank/get disqualified, Shapovalov has been pathetic this year - beating Nole at the absurd Boodles events counts for nothing; Tsonga - not what he once was ... etc.
Meanwhile if you want a tough draw look at Tsitispas. He's going nowhere at Wimbledon.
Meanwhile if you want a tough draw look at Tsitispas. He's going nowhere at Wimbledon.
Bolded: we will see about that soon enough.
The dangers at Wimbledon in recent times has always been associated with upsets from guys that are not on the map as serious contenders who are good for a couple of rounds, before their stamina, luck or experience run out. All the players I mentioned fit that profile. Monfls is not going to make it to Djokovic, I think. Goffin is also suspect, especially when he has to play several rounds around highly talented guys. Raonic is a possibility as his serve can carry him far, but these guys, if they get to him, are also quite good in their own right, and have more rounded games to boot.
I really don't see what the fuss about Nadal's draw is. Tsonga has been a liability ever since that famous win against Fed. He cannot string together three good matches in a row, and even playing out of his mind couldn't down Fed in best of three. I predict a clean 3 sets win for Nadal, should they meet (or 4 set win, if Tsonga gets really hot for a set and clinch a TB). Cilic is in the worst form in the last 4 years, so unless he can play to his previous level I don't see him doing any better against Nadal than against Schwartzman. Thiem is the most in form player in Nadal's quarter, but he is an absolute mug on grass, and even if he reaches Nadal which I doubt, he will be a dispatched in three sets.
Nah, still don't agree. I think you are purposly building down Rafa's draw with the aim of having a backup plan if he somehow does make it far. Not a fan of that, and not sure why you feel the need to stoop down to @Sport low level.
Rafa playing guys that can hurt him - big servers with a power game, most of them proven on grass - against 18-21 year olds with little to no track record anywhere, trying to find their feet on grass... A no contest really.
It's quite apparent Nole has the best draw, with Roger close behind, and Rafa getting the thick end of it. It's not the "thoughest" draw ever like that butthead claims, but it might be the thoughest Nadal draw since he started watching tennis a few years ago.
Tennis_Hands
Banned
Not one thing of what I said is untrue or overstated. Cilic has been abysmal all year (recently lost to Schwartzman on grass in two sets). Tsonga's last big hurrah at Wimbledon was three years ago. Regularly he cannot get past the QFs of ATP250s and ATP500s that he plays. He isn't the player he used to be and that is obvious to anyone who understands what he sees. Thiem is the biggest candidate to finally exceed his previous efforts on grass, but I will believe it when I see it. I removed the part comparing me with a complete troll and ignorant.
Big servers that cannot hold their serve to save their lives recently. 18-21 years old that are the perfect mixture of unpredictability on the surface and explosiveness to take advantage of the faster conditions in the first week.
To me that is an untrue statement, and I will watch carefully how the events will unravel, to see who was right.
Towser83
G.O.A.T.
Cilic though was ranked 6/7 at the time he made the finals, and in Australia Fed was seeded to meet Nadal, but cilic beat him.
I'd say a 6/7 ranked opponent is decent for a final. Now though he's ranked 18 and seeded 13th so he is going to land in a top 3 players draw earlier on. Hes not been in great form though so who knows if he'll make it
Anderson is not the level of Cilic but he made the USO final ranked 28. Fed played him in the quarters when he was a top 10 opponent so he was a reasonable opponent in a quarter for a top 10 player
Lleytonstation
Talk Tennis Guru
I don't know about that, Djokers "young guns" have not proved to be able to sustain high level of play. Cilic, Tsonga, and NK have. It's more of a known quantity.I disagree that it is the hardest of the three. Djokovic has FAA, Tsitsipas, Medvedev, Khachanov etc. The players that are either up and coming or are in huge form coming in. Cilic in the worst form in at least 4 years, grass cripple Thiem and washed up Tsonga won't compensate that.
Naturally, the hardest part of the draw is that Nadal will have to eventually play consecutively Federer/Djokovic, but that is punishing them for being Federer and Djokovic. Besides, I fully expect upsets in Djokovic's half, and that is the "X" factor that is missing as difficulty in Nadal's part of the draw.
Tennis_Hands
Banned
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Lleytonstation
Talk Tennis Guru
Not in that quote...I already addressed that in detail.
Tennis_Hands
Banned
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Lleytonstation
Talk Tennis Guru
Yes, I agree with everything you said... but they simply have the ability to play much higher.From post #166 onwards.
The short version: those players are not what they used to be, some of them for a long time now (Tsonga), and some of them are "paper tigers" not having shown anything on grass (Thiem). Thiem is the closest thing to a pure clay-courter nowadays which means that he has limited game on grass, hardly reflecting his high ranking. Cilic has been non factor all year. That he used to be great even one year ago is irrelevant. NK has the potential, of course and that is arguably most difficult match of that draw up until Nadal potentially meet Federer.
NK (we know he can smash Rafa off the court at Wimbledon because we have seen it).
Cilic (3 slam finals and one win, also at wimbledon 2 years ago).
Tsonga (beat Fed at Wimbledon and just gave Fed a run in Halle).
Thiem (can play high tennis level period even if grass is not his "preferred" surface).
All 4 have the ability to take away time from Rafa and create a mismatch, even Thiem if he finds a groove. However, this is not the case fo the young guys you mentioned, as they have only ever showed top level in lower tournaments.
I would rather face an (up to now), unsuccessful unknown in the young guys then have to face a "out of form" known quantity.
Out of all the young guys you name in Djokers half, the best performance out of all of them was Tsits vs Wawa at the French QF...
Lew II
G.O.A.T.
Grass Elo ranking (worst case scenario excluding themselves from the ranking):
Nadal's draw: no.1 Djokovic, no.2 Federer, no.4 Cilic, no.8 Tsonga, no.9 Querrey, no.19 Kyrgios, no.69 Sugita (geometric mean 6.91)
Djokovic's draw: no.1 Federer, no.5 Raonic, no.14 Auger-Aliassime, no.21 Goffin, no.41 Gulbis, no.44 Kohlschreiber, no.63 Kudla (geometric mean 14.95)
Federer's draw: no.1 Djokovic, no.4 Nadal, no.11 Isner, no.17 Gasquet, no.23 Berrettini, Harris outside top100 (let's count it 100), Clarke/Rubin outside top100 (geometric mean 15.01)
Nadal's draw: no.1 Djokovic, no.2 Federer, no.4 Cilic, no.8 Tsonga, no.9 Querrey, no.19 Kyrgios, no.69 Sugita (geometric mean 6.91)
Djokovic's draw: no.1 Federer, no.5 Raonic, no.14 Auger-Aliassime, no.21 Goffin, no.41 Gulbis, no.44 Kohlschreiber, no.63 Kudla (geometric mean 14.95)
Federer's draw: no.1 Djokovic, no.4 Nadal, no.11 Isner, no.17 Gasquet, no.23 Berrettini, Harris outside top100 (let's count it 100), Clarke/Rubin outside top100 (geometric mean 15.01)
Djokovic draw would be a dream for Rafa (considering his playing style)
DSH
Talk Tennis Guru
In any case, he is to blame for not securing second place in the Wimbledon standings.
Last year, he lost the first place but being top 2 there was no big difference.
If his technical team did not inform him that if Federer won Halle he would take that place away, then, turn off and let's go, for their negligence.
He only had to win a match in Queens to reach the top 2. Similar story to that of 2 years ago where Nadal could also occupy that place in the ranking but he did not.
This year required, I believe, a greater proactivity in his participation on grass, but again he decided not to do it, like Bartelby.
To another thing, butterfly.
Last year, he lost the first place but being top 2 there was no big difference.
If his technical team did not inform him that if Federer won Halle he would take that place away, then, turn off and let's go, for their negligence.
He only had to win a match in Queens to reach the top 2. Similar story to that of 2 years ago where Nadal could also occupy that place in the ranking but he did not.
This year required, I believe, a greater proactivity in his participation on grass, but again he decided not to do it, like Bartelby.
To another thing, butterfly.
WhiskeyEE
G.O.A.T.
Yeah they are known to suck though. The young guys are coming for the Big 3 starting this year.
Nadal's draw is more difficult for him than Novak's draw would be. But the reverse is also probably true. Nadal just doesn't like to play big hitters in the first week. I don't think Novak would have any problem with Nadal's draw.
Tennis_Hands
Banned
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Lleytonstation
Talk Tennis Guru
I hope your right, it would be nice to at least see some good matches even if they don't win. I will take progress like I see with Tsits.
Exactly. This is a tough draw – for Nadal. Though it’s tougher on paper than it will likely be in reality. Most of these guys are way out of form. Kyrgios will probably be his toughest test before the semis. I’d be shocked if Tsonga or Cilic beat him based on recent results.
But no doubt it’s the toughest road for any of the big 3. Just nowhere near the toughest draw of all time (it’s not even the toughest draw of like the last 3 years).
MeatTornado
Talk Tennis Guru
I'll be shocked if Tsonga even takes a set. Won't be surprised at all if he doesn't even make it that far.
Same goes for Cilic. Marin is just as likely to beat Nadal as he is to not even reach the 4th round.
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