2016 BNP Paribas Open / Indian Wells General Discussion Thread

Who wins?

  • Djokovic

    Votes: 39 45.3%

  • Murray

    Votes: 12 14.0%

  • Wawrinka

    Votes: 10 11.6%

  • Raonic

    Votes: 3 3.5%

  • Nadal

    Votes: 5 5.8%

  • Nishikori

    Votes: 4 4.7%

  • Kyrgios

    Votes: 4 4.7%

  • Tomic

    Votes: 0 0.0%

  • Thiem

    Votes: 5 5.8%

  • Other

    Votes: 4 4.7%
  • Total voters
    86
  • Poll closed .
Meles

Meles

Bionic Poster
With Federer out until Monte Carlo, Djokovic's withdrawal from Dubai, Raonic's returning injury issues, and Murray's maternity leave, not all of last year's semi-finalists will come through again.

With recent finals and wins Kyrgios, Wawrinka, Nishikori, Thiem, and Tomic seem poised to make a move. Nadal somehow made the QFs last year and went three sets with Raonic (Tomic made QF also).
365437-4b79c07a-40a1-11e5-91d1-7a17ec48b9e9.jpg
Stanislas+Wawrinka+2014+Australian+Open+Day+r0WIjLtPrr3l.jpg
16Kei-Nishikori-1.jpg
0227_acapulco_sombrero_trofeu_capa.jpg

7072406-3x2-940x627.jpg
12%20Aguilar_USOPEN_Nadal_Coric_20150901_0095.jpg


Hard court dominance rankings for 2016 (% games won hard court):
HardCourtDom2016.png

Mr. Delpo is lurking.;)
 
Last edited:
Gytha

Gytha

Legend
praying to all the gods for a good run from Delpo!

and of course a good showing from the youngsters. Kyrgios and Thiem could go far, if Kyrgios shows up mentally that is.

Though as with any draw with Novak in, it's his to lose. Just give me some uncertainty and excitement pls.

Meles said:
Zverev (just got in with Fed dropping)
Click to expand...

Oh he's made main draw? Excellent :)
 
Aussie Darcy

Aussie Darcy

Bionic Poster
Would love to see a Djoko v Tomic QF. I get the feeling the draw gods will punish Tomic and he'll face Delpo early on... or Kyrgios will be drawn against Delpo which would be a great match.
 
Aussie Darcy

Aussie Darcy

Bionic Poster
Also I think it's fair to say Raonic is in doubt. Withdrew from Delray Beach, Acapulco and now the Davis Cup. Not looking promising for Indian Wells. He's defending SF points so i'm sure he'll try hard to be fit and ready.

Tomic and Kyrgios also have clouds over their head. Tomic with a wrist injury might not play DC this week and Kyrgios was having a scan on his hip? today. He withdrew from his SF against Stan last week.

Kevin Anderson hasn't played a full match since Auckland in early January. He retired 1R at the AO and again 1R in Delray Beach 2 weeks ago. He also withdrew from Acapulco last week.

Unsure of any other injuries of late
 
fundrazer

fundrazer

G.O.A.T.
Feel like Stan should do well on these slow hardcourts, but then I look at his results there and he's never done well. Dunno if they're not great for his game or if it's just the usual Stan that doesn't show up for masters events other than the occasional good showing at the clay ones.

Would like to see Thiem continue his good results also. Not sure of his results at either tournament last year, but it would be great if he could pick up some more points.
 
every7

every7

Hall of Fame
Would love to see Wawrinka take this. He played terribly for a lot of last week and still won Dubai. Hopefully he can raise his game against a higher quality field and win here.

Djokovic may pay for retiring while losing in Dubai. If he loses early here it may be the beginning of a freefall in form for the bulk of 2016.
 
U

ultradr

Legend
Meles said:
With Federer out until Monte Carlo, Djokovic's withdrawal from Dubai, Raonic's returning injury issues, and Murray's maternity leave, not all of last year's semi-finalists will come through again.

With recent finals and wins Kyrgios, Wawrinka, Nishikori, Thiem, and Tomic seem poised to make a move. Nadal somehow made the QFs last year and went three sets with Raonic (Tomic made QF also).
365437-4b79c07a-40a1-11e5-91d1-7a17ec48b9e9.jpg
Stanislas+Wawrinka+2014+Australian+Open+Day+r0WIjLtPrr3l.jpg
16Kei-Nishikori-1.jpg
0227_acapulco_sombrero_trofeu_capa.jpg

7072406-3x2-940x627.jpg
12%20Aguilar_USOPEN_Nadal_Coric_20150901_0095.jpg
Click to expand...


ha ha ha. this does look like an interesting show. new faces and interesting characters with some twists.
 
Meles

Meles

Bionic Poster
ultradr said:
ha ha ha. this does look like an interesting show. new faces and interesting characters with some twists.
Click to expand...
Glad you noticed. I usually go for very flattering photos in my OP posts. These were deliberately much more comic.

I've been crunching some stats on Thiem's little weekend romp in Acapulco. Thiem's major weakness is 1st serve return points, but not last weekend. He won 45% against Dimitrov, 42% against a hot Querrey, and 28% against Tomic (still better than Thiem's hard court average in 2015 at 26%). The all time hard court 1st serve return point leaders are Murray and McEnroe at 34% so the run against the big serving Dimitrov and Querrey was jaw dropping stuff.
 
U

ultradr

Legend
Meles said:
Glad you noticed. I usually go for very flattering photos in my OP posts. These were deliberately much more comic.

I've been crunching some stats on Thiem's little weekend romp in Acapulco. Thiem's major weakness is 1st serve return points, but not last weekend. He won 45% against Dimitrov, 42% against a hot Querrey, and 28% against Tomic (still better than Thiem's hard court average in 2015 at 26%). The all time hard court 1st serve return point leaders are Murray and McEnroe at 34% so the run against the big serving Dimitrov and Querrey was jaw dropping stuff.
Click to expand...

how about the thing between Stan and Nick?
 
H

helterskelter

G.O.A.T.
If he's fully fit, Djokovic has a realistic outside shot at winning the title without losing a set. (It's easier here than in a Slam, because he gets a bye through the first round and, more importantly, only has to win two sets per match to win, not three).
 
H

helterskelter

G.O.A.T.
FedFosterWallace said:
Greater chance of an upset! Prob not unlike peak Nadal who was nigh unbeatable in BO5 on clay... more of a chance in BO3.
Click to expand...

Yes, but the two are not inconsistent. That is, if we compare Indian Wells and the Australian Open (which comes as close as we can to holding all else equal, because Djokovic is at least roughly equally good on both surfaces):

1) Djokovic is more likely to win Indian Wells without dropping a set than he is to win the Australian Open without dropping a set, but
2) Djokovic is more likely to win the Australian Open than he is to win Indian Wells.
 
D

Deleted member 743561

Guest
helterskelter said:
Yes, but the two are not inconsistent. That is, if we compare Indian Wells and the Australian Open (which comes as close as we can to holding all else equal, because Djokovic is at least roughly equally good on both surfaces):

1) Djokovic is more likely to win Indian Wells without dropping a set than he is to win the Australian Open without dropping a set, but
2) Djokovic is more likely to win the Australian Open than he is to win Indian Wells.
Click to expand...

#2 almost makes my point though. 57-6 at AO, and only 41-6 at IW. He can afford to drop a set more at BO5, so whether he does is almost trivia.
 
D

Deleted member 743561

Guest
helterskelter said:
I think it simply restates your point. But my original post was simply about that trivia!
Click to expand...
Okay, I see it. I interpreted it as more of a prediction. Hm. Maybe he doles out breadsticks right and left throughout his run, and then goes 3 with Isner in the final.
 
H

helterskelter

G.O.A.T.
FedFosterWallace said:
Okay, I see it. I interpreted it as more of a prediction. Hm. Maybe he doles out breadsticks right and left throughout his run, and then goes 3 with Isner in the final.
Click to expand...

It wasn't an outright prediction: I said it was a "realistic outside" chance. By that, I meant that it wasn't likely but wasn't so improbable as to be virtually impossible. I said something not dissimilar at the AO, but for reasons we've discussed I thought his chances of not dropping a set less at the AO and his chances of winning the title greater.

(Actually, in this instance, his chances of winning the AO and of winning IW may have been about equal. While in the abstract he should have been firmer favorite for the AO, the fact that Federer played the AO but isn't playing IW is relevant and may bring the two probabilities pretty much in line with each other).
 
Aussie Darcy

Aussie Darcy

Bionic Poster
Kyrgios is out of the Davis Cup. So i'm doubting he'll play Indian Wells. If he does I doubt he'll go deep in the tournament
 
Levi_Ackerman

Levi_Ackerman

Legend
swordtennis said:
Changed vote to Murray. His recent comments. Djokovic is prob not winning a tourney until MC or Rome.
Click to expand...
Seriously! You're going to pick Andy Murray over Djokovic because of "recent comments" - not because of - say, burn out on the part of Djokovic, or fatigue maybe, or the fact that Djokovic will lull inevitably at some point, so why not at IW. Noooooo. That would make too much sense. Instead, you're going to pick Murray over Djokovic because of "comments". No wonder I've come to resent this place. People no longer make logical arguments and have reasonable debates; just a bunch of fallacious non-sequiturs.

Out of curiosity, what were these comments that make you think Djokovic won't win something until MC?
 
Meles

Meles

Bionic Poster
Levi_Ackerman said:
Seriously! You're going to pick Andy Murray over Djokovic because of "recent comments" - not because of - say, burn out on the part of Djokovic, or fatigue maybe, or the fact that Djokovic will lull inevitably at some point, so why not at IW. Noooooo. That would make too much sense. Instead, you're going to pick Murray over Djokovic because of "comments". No wonder I've come to resent this place. People no longer make logical arguments and have reasonable debates; just a bunch of fallacious non-sequiturs.

Out of curiosity, what were these comments that make you think Djokovic won't win something until MC?
Click to expand...
I thought you liked resenting.;)
 
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