Am I in trouble (marathon)

[raiden031]

Day of week
Week Start Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Total
1 07/13/08 0.0 3.5 6.0 0.0 0.0 6.0 0.0 15.5
2 07/20/08 0.0 6.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.0 0.0 14.0
3 07/27/08 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.5 2.0 0.0 0.0 9.5
4 08/03/08 0.0 7.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.5
5 08/10/08 14.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 14.0
6 08/17/08 0.0 0.0 0.0 10.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 10.0
7 08/24/08 6.0 8.0 0.0 0.0 5.0 0.0 0.0 19.0
8 08/31/08 0.0 0.0 12.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.0 19.5
9 09/07/08 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.0
10 09/14/08 18.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 20.0 38.0
11 09/21/08 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.0
12 09/28/08 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
13 10/05/08 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
158.0

Ok above is my marathon running log where I show how many miles I ran each day of the week and then the total of the week (158 miles total in about 11 weeks). My training has been a little pathetic but I also have been busy playing tennis and qualifying for Nationals on two teams.

Two weeks ago I ran my first big run (18 miles) and after 12 miles I hit a wall where my legs felt absolutely helpless and basically walked/ran the last 6 miles and it was absolutely miserable. Finished the 18 miles in 3:30.

6 days later I ran 20 miles and basically cruised (although my left nipple was bleeding through my white polyester shirt). I finished the 20 miles in 3:10. This weekend I will hit the 2-week mark from race day and am planning to do one more 20 miler, even though I think I technically should be tapering at this point (I can't taper if I haven't hardly been training to begin with!).

Last year I ran the half marathon in about 1:45, so I've always been in decent shape but I've been worrying about this full marathon alot. Anyways my goal is under 4 hours (~9 mins/mile). What are my chances?

 

[Bad Dog]

Your chances are good; you’ll be fine.

Years ago, I trained for one marathon by running over 100 miles a week, and then completed the race in less than four hours.

The next year I trained for the same marathon, but like you, I did not have much time available. So I limited myself to 16 mile runs, twice a week (= barely over 30 miles per week), and then completed the race again in less than four hours. Your log indicates at least one week of almost 40 miles, and you have already completed several high mileage runs. So you should be good to go, as you mentioned you were in decently good shape before marathon training.

Bottom line: High weekly training mileage is not absolutely necessary for sub-four hour marathons.

 

[Moz]

Last year I ran the half marathon in about 1:45, so I've always been in decent shape but I've been worrying about this full marathon alot. Anyways my goal is under 4 hours (~9 mins/mile). What are my chances?

I reckon your chance is less than 50%. The marathon is the sort of race that punishes inconsistency.