Best and worst GS Fs played by the Big 3 at each venue?

[StrongRule]

If the guy you are facing is truly playing his best chances are you are going to look like you are playing your worst. And vice versa

Somehow Djokovic fans never apply this logic to Djokovic. According to them he was better in RG 2016 than in any of RG 2011-2015 simply because he won it.

 

[Djokovic_is_the_best#1]

Somehow Djokovic fans never apply this logic to Djokovic. According to them he was better in RG 2016 than in any of RG 2011-2015 simply because he won it.

I’d agree that RG16 was definitely not Djokovic best performance. He wasn’t great in final but Murray was worse and physically couldn’t keep up.

I’d say RG 2013 was arguably Djokovic best level at the tournament.

 

[RS]

To any of them. Nadal was playing very well at AO19 until he faced Novak. Did he play badly the final or did Novak play incredibly? Or both?

Yeah but in particular about Novak opponents because that's a even more glaring example?

 

[Third Serve]

Yes, yes, posters constantly claim they can judge relative levels through the eye test

The match stats kinda bear this one out too. Djokovic had a very high, very positive winner-UFE ratio on a court that wasn't terribly fast. High first serve percentage of 72%.

Nadal with a negative winner-UFE differential (in fact, about three times as many UFEs as Djokovic with not nearly enough winners to compensate). Also relatively unimpressive serve stats (particularly an uncharacteristically low first serve points won %).

Not that I necessarily think the match stats are the be-all end-all since they also depend on context like court conditions and playing styles (and plus, some of the stats are contingent on each other - e.g. Djokovic hitting a ton of winners because Nadal didn't cover the court as much as in other matches, leading to fewer FE's but more winners) but for the more "objective" TTW users who don the blindfolds when watching tennis matches, they might find some favor.

You Djokovic fans should make use of them a bit more often. I find them a lot more convincing than some of the others the Wikipedia warriors pump out.

 

[Red Rick]

People literally forgot the Baghdatis open final

 

[DSH]

Somehow Djokovic fans never apply this logic to Djokovic. According to them he was better in RG 2016 than in any of RG 2011-2015 simply because he won it.

What can you say about them?
They are clueless.

 

[GabeT]

That’s why I use a combination of the eye test and stats. Stats can be manipulated just like the eye test can.

The match stats kinda bear this one out too. Djokovic had a very high, very positive winner-UFE ratio on a court that wasn't terribly fast. High first serve percentage of 72%.

Nadal with a negative winner-UFE differential (in fact, about three times as many UFEs as Djokovic with not nearly enough winners to compensate). Also relatively unimpressive serve stats (particularly an uncharacteristically low first serve points won %).

Not that I necessarily think the match stats are the be-all end-all since they also depend on context like court conditions and playing styles (and plus, some of the stats are contingent on each other - e.g. Djokovic hitting a ton of winners because Nadal didn't cover the court as much as in other matches, leading to fewer FE's but more winners) but for the more "objective" TTW users who don the blindfolds when watching tennis matches, they might find some favor.

You Djokovic fans should make use of them a bit more often. I find them a lot more convincing than some of the others the Wikipedia warriors pump out.

it’s not clear to me that stats by themselves, at least the stats we have available, allow us to determine if a match result reflects more the winner playing well or the loser playing badly.

even the % of 1st serves in, in principle the perfect “opponent-independent” stat, is influenced by who you face. A player that’s playing well, even very well, but is suddenly facing a much higher level player (the experience of most players that reach SFs or higher only to have to play one of the Big 3), may have to adjust in ways that change the stats. If you face a much better returner (true of all B3 but even more so of Nadal or Novak in their favorite surface) you may need to go for faster or deeper or more angled serves just to have a chance, and now all of of sudden your stats get worse.

There was a thread here the other day about a player commenting in the post match press conference what it feels like to face Novak. And one point he made (can‘t find the thread right now) was that when Novak was on it threw all your match plans out the window. All of a sudden you are facing much faster and deeper balls, maybe with more angle, and balls you hit that would have been winners against almost anyone else are returned.

ideally we’d have other kinds of stats, say average number of feet a player has to move to get to a ball and avg response time available. None of that exists today, that I know. Maybe AI tools will change that in the future.

 

[RS]

People literally forgot the Baghdatis open final

It's rated higher than 17 and 18 for Fed most the time

 

[InsideOut900]

The only thing I’d push back on is that AO 19 Joker and RG 20 RAFA did play very error free tennis. Joker made 9 UFEs and RAFA made 14 if the stats I’m looking at are right. I agree 100% that the opponent’s level had a lot to do with how the winner’s stats turned out.

Well, I did take that into account, which is why I would consider those stand-out performances at least for their age.

But at the same time it's not like we don't know what these guys are capable of and would blow us away with a performance in their 30s that would put their 20s to shame, like they played at 60-70% of their potential earlier.

The point is that you lose something with age, physically, but you can make the best out of it by cutting errors, working on improving whatever you can, which is why AO 19 and RG 17-20 are performances that deserve appreciation.

You can see for instance that Nadal at 34 looks like a bull on his feet, can sprint laterally hard, can punch a ball, but his younger self was a cheetah, so light on his feet and so quick changing directions. That's physical decline.

That was so noticeable if you watch their 2007/2008 semi and then 2013 semi. How Nadal's both movement and hitting patterns changed with age and certain playing patterns started actually cracking his game, quick changes of directions into his BH, testing his balance, or deep CC backhands drawing short responses from his FH.

2020 has 7 more years of decline and all these issues would be exacerbated as there is no way to alleviate them, but facing 2020 Djokovic, whose weight of shot was nothing like his prime self would never expose that.

As for 2019 Djoko, he had a lighter frame, so less punching power than his younger self (except 2015-2016) and this on an older body, so naturally less explosive.
His balance and counterpunching were still exceptional, but his weight of shot and ability to redirect heavy hitting were not tested whatsoever.

So in short both guys got the perfect opponents to highlight their current strengths and hide their weaknesses and AO 2019 Nadal in particular was like watching prime Big 3 play Ferrer, was getting subjugated in all aspects of the game.

Djoko tried to outhit Nadal in very slow conditions and got exposed by the guy with cleaner clay movement and more weight behind his shots.

And sorry if the long posts are hard to follow

 

[nolefam_2024]

Well, I did take that into account, which is why I would consider those stand-out performances at least for their age.

But at the same time it's not like we don't know what these guys are capable of and would blow us away with a performance in their 30s that would put their 20s to shame, like they played at 60-70% of their potential earlier.

The point is that you lose something with age, physically, but you can make the best out of it by cutting errors, working on improving whatever you can, which is why AO 19 and RG 17-20 are performances that deserve appreciation.

You can see for instance that Nadal at 34 looks like a bull on his feet, can sprint laterally hard, can punch a ball, but his younger self was a cheetah, so light on his feet and so quick changing directions. That's physical decline.

That was so noticeable if you watch their 2007/2008 semi and then 2013 semi. How Nadal's both movement and hitting patterns changed with age and certain playing patterns started actually cracking his game, quick changes of directions into his BH, testing his balance, or deep CC backhands drawing short responses from his FH.

2020 has 7 more years of decline and all these issues would be exacerbated as there is no way to alleviate them, but facing 2020 Djokovic, whose weight of shot was nothing like his prime self would never expose that.

As for 2019 Djoko, he had a lighter frame, so less punching power than his younger self (except 2015-2016) and this on an older body, so naturally less explosive.
His balance and counterpunching were still exceptional, but his weight of shot and ability to redirect heavy hitting were not tested whatsoever.

So in short both guys got the perfect opponents to highlight their current strengths and hide their weaknesses and AO 2019 Nadal in particular was like watching prime Big 3 play Ferrer, was getting subjugated in all aspects of the game.

Djoko tried to outhit Nadal in very slow conditions and got exposed by the guy with cleaner clay movement and more weight behind his shots.

And sorry if the long posts are hard to follow

Connors at 39 said he felt amazing and if only he could steal a little bit youth from his 20 year old self he would be able to beat the 20 year old. Connors didn't need to run as fast as his 20 year old self. He had the experience to counter it. He said so himself.

 

[The Blond Blur]

it’s not clear to me that stats by themselves, at least the stats we have available, allow us to determine if a match result reflects more the winner playing well or the loser playing badly.

even the % of 1st serves in, in principle the perfect “opponent-independent” stat, is influenced by who you face. A player that’s playing well, even very well, but is suddenly facing a much higher level player (the experience of most players that reach SFs or higher only to have to play one of the Big 3), may have to adjust in ways that change the stats. If you face a much better returner (true of all B3 but even more so of Nadal or Novak in their favorite surface) you may need to go for faster or deeper or more angled serves just to have a chance, and now all of of sudden your stats get worse.

There was a thread here the other day about a player commenting in the post match press conference what it feels like to face Novak. And one point he made (can‘t find the thread right now) was that when Novak was on it threw all your match plans out the window. All of a sudden you are facing much faster and deeper balls, maybe with more angle, and balls you hit that would have been winners against almost anyone else are returned.

ideally we’d have other kinds of stats, say average number of feet a player has to move to get to a ball and avg response time available. None of that exists today, that I know. Maybe AI tools will change that in the future.

Which is why stats shouldn’t be the be all end all when evaluating a match’s quality or a player’s level. To me it’s equally valid to outright dismiss stats as it is to dismiss the eye test and vice versa. I don’t need to see a list of numbers to tell me that a guy is missing a ton of 1st serves or spraying all over the court. I’ve been watching the game long enough to know when a guy is playing well vs when he’s sticking up the place. That’s why I approach match appraisal by looking at things with a wholistic approach. Otherwise if we’re saying that AO 2019 RAFA was made to look so bad because Joker was just that good then we can say the exact same thing for the RG 2020 F. The difference is that everyone is pretty much agreeing that RG 2020 was Joker’s worse showing there out of all the Fs he played. By that same token it should be a slam dunk to call the 2019 AO F the worst AO F that RAFA played there.

 

[The Blond Blur]

Well, I did take that into account, which is why I would consider those stand-out performances at least for their age.

But at the same time it's not like we don't know what these guys are capable of and would blow us away with a performance in their 30s that would put their 20s to shame, like they played at 60-70% of their potential earlier.

The point is that you lose something with age, physically, but you can make the best out of it by cutting errors, working on improving whatever you can, which is why AO 19 and RG 17-20 are performances that deserve appreciation.

You can see for instance that Nadal at 34 looks like a bull on his feet, can sprint laterally hard, can punch a ball, but his younger self was a cheetah, so light on his feet and so quick changing directions. That's physical decline.

That was so noticeable if you watch their 2007/2008 semi and then 2013 semi. How Nadal's both movement and hitting patterns changed with age and certain playing patterns started actually cracking his game, quick changes of directions into his BH, testing his balance, or deep CC backhands drawing short responses from his FH.

2020 has 7 more years of decline and all these issues would be exacerbated as there is no way to alleviate them, but facing 2020 Djokovic, whose weight of shot was nothing like his prime self would never expose that.

As for 2019 Djoko, he had a lighter frame, so less punching power than his younger self (except 2015-2016) and this on an older body, so naturally less explosive.
His balance and counterpunching were still exceptional, but his weight of shot and ability to redirect heavy hitting were not tested whatsoever.

So in short both guys got the perfect opponents to highlight their current strengths and hide their weaknesses and AO 2019 Nadal in particular was like watching prime Big 3 play Ferrer, was getting subjugated in all aspects of the game.

Djoko tried to outhit Nadal in very slow conditions and got exposed by the guy with cleaner clay movement and more weight behind his shots.

And sorry if the long posts are hard to follow

No you’re totally fine and I appreciate the response. I agree with a lot of what you’re saying. The main reason I started this thread was to get other people’s opinions since their eye test can be different from mine or they value different statistical categories over the one’s I do. I’ve tried to approach this with an open mind and have actually changed my opinion on some of these rankings (which for this place is pretty rare). I think what you’ve said makes a lot of sense and I shared a lot of them before even making this thread. For example, I think grading them on their own that 2019 Joker played a statistically more dominant F than he did in 2011, but that Murray played a better match than 2019 RAFA. And if 2019 RAFA were to play 2011 Joker in the 2011 conditions it would obviously be an even bigger beatdown.

 

[Third Serve]

it’s not clear to me that stats by themselves, at least the stats we have available, allow us to determine if a match result reflects more the winner playing well or the loser playing badly.

even the % of 1st serves in, in principle the perfect “opponent-independent” stat is influenced by who you face. A player that’s playing well, even very well, but is suddenly facing a much higher level player (the experience of most players that reach SFs or higher only to have to play one of the Big 3) may have to adjust in ways that change the stats. If you face a much better returner (true of all B3 but even more so of Nadal or Novak in their favorite surface) you may need to go for faster or deeper or more angled serves just to have a chance, and now all of of sudden your stats get worse.

There was a thread here the other day about a player commenting in the post match press conference what it feels like to face Novak. And one point he made (can‘t find the thread right now) was that when Novak was on it threw all your match plans out the window. All of a sudden you are facing much faster and deeper balls, maybe with more angle, and balls you hit that would have been winners against almost anyone else are returned.

ideally we’d have other kinds of stats, say average number of feet a player has to move to get to a ball and avg response time available. None of that exists today, that I know. Maybe AI tools will change that in the future.

I alluded to this at the end of my post.

This is exactly why I believe the eye test to be literally the best thing we have for assessing player level (complemented with the few stats we have available of course)… because it at least addresses those factors that the stats literally do not tell us anything about, rather than pretending they don’t exist.

I will quibble with your takedown of the 1st serve % though. Any effect that the opponent may have on this number is purely mental and often negligible. In any case, even if those numbers do go down due to this psychological effect, it’s still a mark against the player in question for allowing their serve to succumb in this manner. In fact, it’s something that may be used to differentiate between good and truly great servers as I haven’t ever seen this induced drop in 1st serve % be the case for the greats.

Now, moving back to the main point, statistics in tennis are incredibly lacking and they trail behind tons of other sports, which forces us to make up the difference by performing a more careful examination of the matches in question. That’s why whenever Waspsting makes those match reports of his, he always provides commentary on those matches that analyze whatever is missing in a purely statistical analysis. Are they subjective? Sure. But are they still better than anything else we have to assess level? Yes, at least until (unless?) we have better statistical measures to work with.

Not exactly an alien concept either, since the majority of tennis commentators and experts have employed the eye test in the past to conduct analyses of matches in the absence of more grounded methods. The players you quote also relied on their subjective experiences with Djokovic to give us a taste of what it’s like playing him. It’s not really something you can tell by looking at the stats but that hardly makes it useless.

Using this method, there are a few other things to point out in the 2019 AO final. I believe them to be obvious because I don’t think they veer into the more obscure areas of eye tests (the most common of which being “was this a good tactic?”). These are more straightforward.

1. Djokovic placed his groundstrokes very deep—especially off the backhand—and maintained firm pace.

2. Djokovic moved relatively well and tracked down many of Nadal’s trickier shots efficiently.

3. Djokovic served well. I’ve already discussed this but he got a lot of first serves in and kept Nadal on the back foot.

4. Nadal was sluggish off the ground. You’ve seen it in a few of those GIFs that got posted frequently here, but there were plenty of occasions during which he didn’t even try to chase down balls that—while well placed—would still have been within a fitter player’s reach (i.e. youngdal). His draw before the final was very easy too; it’s not like he was exhausted after a tough gauntlet of opponents.

5. Nadal was prone to uncharacteristic errors. About half of his unforced errors came against neutral rally shots. Usually, he’d be the one outlasting his opponent and allowing them to fall apart, but you basically never see him on the receiving end of such an exchange, even in most of his other matches with Djokovic.

I think it’s tough to say for sure if Djokovic’s excellence or Nadal’s underperformance was the bigger factor in the match’s result, but I think it’s very clear that they were both factors. Personally, this is a far easier match to analyze than some of their other encounters.

 

[AnOctorokForDinner]

Which is why stats shouldn’t be the be all end all when evaluating a match’s quality or a player’s level. To me it’s equally valid to outright dismiss stats as it is to dismiss the eye test and vice versa. I don’t need to see a list of numbers to tell me that a guy is missing a ton of 1st serves or spraying all over the court. I’ve been watching the game long enough to know when a guy is playing well vs when he’s sticking up the place. That’s why I approach match appraisal by looking at things with a wholistic approach. Otherwise if we’re saying that AO 2019 RAFA was made to look so bad because Joker was just that good then we can say the exact same thing for the RG 2020 F. The difference is that everyone is pretty much agreeing that RG 2020 was Joker’s worse showing there out of all the Fs he played. By that same token it should be a slam dunk to call the 2019 AO F the worst AO F that RAFA played there.

Surely shares the honours with 22.

 

[Third Serve]

Yeah 2022 was pretty bad.

 

[The Blond Blur]

Surely shares the honours with 22.

Eh got to disagree there. He was putting balls into the middle of the net in the 2019 F warm up. He really should have won the 22 F in 4 but had a similar drop in intensity to the 2019 2-1 Open F.

 

[AnOctorokForDinner]

Eh got to disagree there. He was putting balls into the middle of the net in the 2019 F warm up. He really should have won the 22 F in 4 but had a similar drop in intensity to the 2019 2-1 Open F.

Warmup isn't an argument lol. I think you're avoiding the realisation of just how weak the tennis was from both in last year's final... one of the worst slam winning levels in the whole OE. Their other slam final was at least better than that.

 

[AnOctorokForDinner]

Yeah 2022 was pretty bad.

I've been thinking of posting my own analysis of that one as (which you might remember) I was left feeling rather unsatisfied by Wasp glossing over the pronounced weaknesses in it but I'm not sure it's even worth the effort. Non-Nadal fans by and large already accept the match was feeble while most Nadal fans will cling to its 'epicness' no matter what. (Also it kinda sucks to have to dissect such a painful match just to drive home the deserved negativity.)

 

[The Blond Blur]

Warmup isn't an argument lol. I think you're avoiding the realisation of just how weak the tennis was from both in last year's final... one of the worst slam winning levels in the whole OE. Their other slam final was at least better than that.

The point I was making is it was an obvious sign of how tight/tense he was before the match even started lel. I’m not avoiding anything. If anything his road the F was even easier in 2019 than it was in 2022. He at least showed some semblance of mental fortitude in 2022. In 2019 he looked resigned to his fate from the get go. That and I’d argue he moved better in 2022 since he was coming off ankle surgery in 2019. I’m not even saying he played great in 2022, just better than he did in 2019 which isn’t saying much.

 

[RS]

I've been thinking of posting my own analysis of that one as (which you might remember) I was left feeling rather unsatisfied by Wasp glossing over the pronounced weaknesses in it but I'm not sure it's even worth the effort. Non-Nadal fans by and large already accept the match was feeble while most Nadal fans will cling to its 'epicness' no matter what.

The match wasn't exactly one of the best for level but it was the fact Nadal won coming back for injury and 2 sets down which made us enjoy and the odd person got overhyped.

It wasn't anywhere near as frequent as some of the matches Fedovic fans prop up and that for a much longer period of time aswell.

 

[AnOctorokForDinner]

The point I was making is it was an obvious sign of how tight/tense he was before the match even started lel. I’m not avoiding anything. If anything his road the F was even easier in 2019 than it was in 2022. He at least showed some semblance of mental fortitude in 2022. In 2019 he looked resigned to his fate from the get go. That and I’d argue he moved better in 2022 since he was coming off ankle surgery in 2019. I’m not even saying he played great in 2022, just better than he did in 2019 which isn’t saying much.

You're just basing this on how the matches went. The difference in opponent level couldn't have been more poignant.
The movement point could at least be valid provided it's actually true which I don't know about.

 

[The Blond Blur]

You're just basing this on how the matches went. The difference in opponent level couldn't have been more poignant.
The movement point could at least be valid provided it's actually true which I don't know about.

No, I’m basing this on the fact that I follow his career far more closely than you do. He was so nervous before the 2019 F that he showed up the stadium hours earlier than he usual did. When Joker was notified of how long he had been there he said he knew he was going to when in that moment before a ball was even played.

He did in fact have ankle surgery at the end of 2018 and there was a definite difference in his movement between the 2 Fs. Being less sure of yourself physically will absolutely have an effect on your mentality. There were multiple instances where he didn’t even make an effort to chase after balls.

 

[jl809]

Djoker:

• AO: best - 2011, worst - 2023 by a mile
• FO: best - 2012 (that Djoker would have beaten Murray in 3, not 4), worst - 2020
• Wim: best - 2015, worst - 2021==2023
• USO: best - 2011, worst - 2016

Ned:

• AO: best - 2009, worst - 2019
• FO: best - 2008, worst - no idea tbh? Probably 2022
• Wim: best - 2008==2007, worst - 2006
• USO: best - 2010, worst - 2019

Fed:

• AO: best - 2007, worst - 2018
• FO: best - 2007==2009, worst - 2008
• Wim: best - 2005, worst - 2019
• USO: best - 2004, worst - 2015 (probably the best worst level here)

 

[fedfan24]

Fed was better from the ground in 2019 W final than 14/15, he wasn’t completely dominated like he was in those two finals.

 

[AnOctorokForDinner]

No, I’m basing this on the fact that I follow his career far more closely than you do. He was so nervous before the 2019 F that he showed up the stadium hours earlier than he usual did. When Joker was notified of how long he had been there he said he knew he was going to when in that moment before a ball was even played.

He did in fact have ankle surgery at the end of 2018 and there was a definite difference in his movement between the 2 Fs. Being less sure of yourself physically will absolutely have an effect on your mentality. There were multiple instances where he didn’t even make an effort to chase after balls.

Do you seriously think Nadal would be even a fraction that nervous against Sadladev, a player he knows he can outplay at will just so long as he doesn't commit a ton of errors? Ha.

I recall Nadal electing to not chase a few balls in 22 too. Point remains unproven/undecided as yet.

 

[The Blond Blur]

Do you seriously think Nadal would be even a fraction that nervous against Sadladev, a player he knows he can outplay at will just so long as he doesn't commit a ton of errors? Ha.

I recall Nadal electing to not chase a few balls in 22 too. Point remains unproven/undecided as yet.

As nervous? No, but he was still plenty nervous in the 22 F hence the super slow start. I’m not giving 2019 the nod simply due to the fact that he was beaten before he even stepped into the court.

And it’s not unproven, he had surgery before the 2019 AO and specifically talked about how it affected him moving/playing defense. Now given Joker’s level it wouldn’t have mattered anyway. But when assessing a player’s worst ever schlem F performance it makes a decided difference in my eyes.

 

[AnOctorokForDinner]

As nervous? No, but he was still plenty nervous in the 22 F hence the super slow start. I’m not giving 2019 the nod simply due to the fact that he was beaten before he even stepped into the court.

And it’s not unproven, he had surgery before the 2019 AO and specifically talked about how it affected him moving/playing defense. Now given Joker’s level it wouldn’t have mattered anyway. But when assessing a player’s worst ever schlem F performance it makes a decided difference in my eyes.

Would 2022 Nadal win more games off 2019 Djokovic than he did in 2019? Doubt. Would 2019 Nadal come back and beat 2022 Medvedev? Sure, it's his bunny whose game is eminently vulnerable.

Trusting what the players say is how you get '2015 is peak Federer'. Again, to be clear, I'm not arguing against it, I'm arguing that I don't know / it's unproven. I wasn't watching the two finals with a mind to compare Ned's movements, maybe I will at some point.

 

[The Blond Blur]

Would 2022 Nadal win more games off 2019 Djokovic than he did in 2019? Doubt. Would 2019 Nadal come back and beat 2022 Medvedev? Sure, it's his bunny whose game is eminently vulnerable.

Trusting what the players say is how you get '2015 is peak Federer'. Again, to be clear, I'm not arguing against it, I'm arguing that I don't know / it's unproven. I wasn't watching the two finals with a mind to compare Ned's movements, maybe I will at some point.

That’s just you speculating. RAFA didn’t even play the Mad Lad until Canada 2019. He’d have no frame of reference for him to say that he’d own him.

If you can’t see the difference between a 34-35 year old player making a delusional statement like “I’m at the peak of my game playing better than ever. Even when I was winning 40 matches in a row 10 years ago”. Versus a 33 year old player saying “I’m coming off ankle surgery and my movement isn’t where I want it to be especially defensively”. Then there’s nothing else to discuss.

 

[AnOctorokForDinner]

That’s just you speculating. RAFA didn’t even play the Mad Lad until Canada 2019. He’d have no frame of reference for him to say that he’d own him.

If you can’t see the difference between a 34-35 year old player making a delusional statement like “I’m at the peak of my game playing better than ever. Even when I was winning 40 matches in a row 10 years ago”. Versus a 33 year old player saying “I’m coming off ankle surgery and my movement isn’t where I want it to be especially defensively”. Then there’s nothing else to discuss.

Nadal didn't need said "frame of reference" to bagel Sadlad in their first match, now did he? The matchup is gonna be obvious from the first few points.

I wonder what 2022 Nadal would say about his movement if he faced 2019 Djokovic, hmm.

 

[jl809]

Set 3 from Nadal in 22 was far better than anything in 2019 in terms of doing his bit from his side of the court, and then he had 2 more sets at above or around that level, so this isn’t really a discussion tbh

Besides, as bad as Ned was in set 1 in 2022, he wasn’t… this

 

[The Blond Blur]

Nadal didn't need said "frame of reference" to bagel Sadlad in their first match, now did he? The matchup is gonna be obvious from the first few points.

I wonder what 2022 Nadal would say about his movement if he faced 2019 Djokovic, hmm.

Considering he didn’t have ankle surgery less than 2 months before the AO in 2022 I’d say that he’d say he was more satisfied with his 22 movement. But that’s just using common sense lel. I mean you guys go on about 06 Anklerer all the time, but somehow a guy who’s older, severely declined from his prime, and actually had surgery isn’t going to have his movement affected?

 

[The Blond Blur]

Set 3 from Nadal in 22 was far better than anything in 2019 in terms of doing his bit from his side of the court, and then he had 2 more sets at above or around that level, so this isn’t really a discussion tbh

Besides, as bad as Ned was in set 1 in 2022, he wasn’t… this

I just went back to watch the opening games of the 2019 F and the number of UFEs he was making off neutral rally balls was just inducing.

 

[InsideOut900]

Set 3 from Nadal in 22 was far better than anything in 2019 in terms of doing his bit from his side of the court, and then he had 2 more sets at above or around that level, so this isn’t really a discussion tbh

Besides, as bad as Ned was in set 1 in 2022, he wasn’t… this

Nadal looked like he was gonna die on court up until middle of 3rd set when Medvedev missed that triple BP.

I understand the enamoration with what that match meant, but did he actually show mental fortitude before his opponent essentially started throwing the match away?

He did well to recover, but I don't think someone putting their foot in the door allows him to ever recover from that position.

 

[InsideOut900]

As nervous? No, but he was still plenty nervous in the 22 F hence the super slow start. I’m not giving 2019 the nod simply due to the fact that he was beaten before he even stepped into the court.

And it’s not unproven, he had surgery before the 2019 AO and specifically talked about how it affected him moving/playing defense. Now given Joker’s level it wouldn’t have mattered anyway. But when assessing a player’s worst ever schlem F performance it makes a decided difference in my eyes.

Well, he did look convincing against 6 opponents in 2019. Which points he had the game with him to a good extent.

2019 was nothing out of line from his general 2018-2021 form and he even went all the way unlike 2018 or 2021 where he physically faltered.

2022 against Berr and particularly Shapo and first 2 sets and a half against Med were lesser than his 2018-2021 form in my eyes.

Nothing is provable here, of course, but still, there is plently of circumstancial evidence about how 2019 Nadal vs. 2022 Med would most likely go.

 

[AnOctorokForDinner]

I just went back to watch the opening games of the 2019 F and the number of UFEs he was making off neutral rally balls was just inducing.

That's not a movement problem, that's a nerves problem which is going to be much lesser against a much lesser player in Medvedev. Bad movement would manifest itself in being easy to force errors or weak shots out of. I also just watched the first half of the 2019 final and sure Ned's movement was pretty weak but that was the case in 2022 as well. Sure, he had more staying power in rallies but a big part of that is Medvedev putting far less pressure on him than Djokovic did, and the other part is less nerves hence less easy UEs. Ned also had a better serve in 2019 though with Djoko's return it didn't count for as much.

Imagine a scenario where there is no Nadal in 2019 RG (just like no Djokovic in 2022 AO), Federer gets to play Thiem in the final and beats him in a messy five-setter (entirely possible given Timothy's choking tendencies if you ask me). You are asked which Federer performance is worse, the 08 final or the 19 final. What would you say? Of course, technically you can always nod to how poorly erratic he was in the 08 final but obviously it has everything to do with the caliber of the opponent and there is no reasonable doubt 2008 Federer would beat 2019 Federer without much fuss. Naturally, 2019 Nadal is no 2008 Federer but neither am I saying he's better than 2022 Nadal, rather around the same level.

 

[AnOctorokForDinner]

Set 3 from Nadal in 22 was far better than anything in 2019 in terms of doing his bit from his side of the court, and then he had 2 more sets at above or around that level, so this isn’t really a discussion tbh

Besides, as bad as Ned was in set 1 in 2022, he wasn’t… this

Still better than a double fault. (DF is literally the worst way to play and lose a point, don't see how you can argue against that.)

 

[The Blond Blur]

Well, he did look convincing against 6 opponents in 2019. Which points he had the game with him to a good extent.

2019 was nothing out of line from his general 2018-2021 form and he even went all the way unlike 2018 or 2021 where he physically faltered.

2022 against Berr and particularly Shapo and first 2 sets and a half against Med were lesser than his 2018-2021 form in my eyes.

Nothing is provable here, of course, but still, there is plently of circumstancial evidence about how 2019 Nadal vs. 2022 Med would most likely go.

His 2019 draw was definitely weaker than his 2022 draw. The Shapo match came down to heat exhaustion not necessarily Shapo raising his level. Before that he was routining him. I’m going to have to respectfully disagree here. He looked slower (especially when changing directions) in 2019. And it just makes logic sense too. He just came off ankle surgery in his 30’s. I don’t think it’s fair that a lot of Fed fans give him a pass in 06 for his less than stellar performance due to his ankle issue but not a 32-33 year old.

 

[AnOctorokForDinner]

Nadal looked like he was gonna die on court up until middle of 3rd set when Medvedev missed that triple BP.

I understand the enamoration with what that match meant, but did he actually show mental fortitude before his opponent essentially started throwing the match away?

He did well to recover, but I don't think someone putting their foot in the door allows him to ever recover from that position.

Funny thing is, I actually grew less impressed by Noel's level there after rewatching just now. It's not like his shots were exceptional (well, a few were, as in any match), a capable opponent could have held on to that and made it a battle but Nadal was so slow and erratic and most of his shots lacked bite. When he managed to hit a strong shot or two, Djokovic was often in trouble; Nadal threw away his chances though by missing from advantageous positions.

 

[AnOctorokForDinner]

Considering he didn’t have ankle surgery less than 2 months before the AO in 2022 I’d say that he’d say he was more satisfied with his 22 movement. But that’s just using common sense lel. I mean you guys go on about 06 Anklerer all the time, but somehow a guy who’s older, severely declined from his prime, and actually had surgery isn’t going to have his movement affected?

Curiously, seems like it was mostly shotmaking consistency that was affected. Fred was a bit slower than usual but given that his usual was a very high standard at the time his movement was perfectly strong still, only he had bouts of making errors on neutral or attacking balls just like that. I do think that's kind of on him, in comparison Djokovic appeared to manage his 2021/23 AO niggles better in that regard (though his standard was obviously lower than 06 Fred so it's still a worse performance).

 

[The Blond Blur]

That's not a movement problem, that's a nerves problem which is going to be much lesser against a much lesser player in Medvedev. Bad movement would manifest itself in being easy to force errors or weak shots out of. I also just watched the first half of the 2019 final and sure Ned's movement was pretty weak but that was the case in 2022 as well. Sure, he had more staying power in rallies but a big part of that is Medvedev putting far less pressure on him than Djokovic did, and the other part is less nerves hence less easy UEs. Ned also had a better serve in 2019 though with Djoko's return it didn't count for as much.

Imagine a scenario where there is no Nadal in 2019 RG (just like no Djokovic in 2022 AO), Federer gets to play Thiem in the final and beats him in a messy five-setter (entirely possible given Timothy's choking tendencies if you ask me). You are asked which Federer performance is worse, the 08 final or the 19 final. What would you say? Of course, technically you can always nod to how poorly erratic he was in the 08 final but obviously it has everything to do with the caliber of the opponent and there is no reasonable doubt 2008 Federer would beat 2019 Federer without much fuss. Naturally, 2019 Nadal is no 2008 Federer but neither am I saying he's better than 2022 Nadal, rather around the same level.

So movement now all of a sudden doesn’t affect how a player sets up their groundstrokes? The point is his 2019 movement was worse than his 2022 movement. I wouldn’t say there was a huge difference between their serves. 2022 had more DFs but he was also going bigger on his 2nd serves. I just find it very hypocritical to give 06 Fed a pass for his early 06 level due to his ankle injury from the end of 05 but not extend that same courtesy to 19 RAFA coming off ankle surgery and being much older.

Your hypothetical scenario is a poorly set up one from the ground up. 08 was Fed’s prime compared to being a solid decade past his prime in 2019. Plus there’s a much bigger gap in level of play between 08dal and 19 Timmy vs 19 Joker and 22 Mad Lad.

 

[The Blond Blur]

Curiously, seems like it was mostly shotmaking consistency that was affected. Fred was a bit slower than usual but given that his usual was a very high standard at the time his movement was perfectly strong still, only he had bouts of making errors on neutral or attacking balls just like that. I do think that's kind of on him, in comparison Djokovic appeared to manage his 2021/23 AO niggles better in that regard (though his standard was obviously lower than 06 Fred so it's still a worse performance).

Pretty much everything you said here could be applied to 19 RAFA (and then some) who was far older and more declined at that point in his career.

 

[RS]

The ankle analogy with 06rer at AO is a good point.

 

[AnOctorokForDinner]

So movement now all of a sudden doesn’t affect how a player sets up their groundstrokes? The point is his 2019 movement was worse than his 2022 movement. I wouldn’t say there was a huge difference between their serves. 2022 had more DFs but he was also going bigger on his 2nd serves. I just find it very hypocritical to give 06 Fed a pass for his early 06 level due to his ankle injury from the end of 05 but not extend that same courtesy to 19 RAFA coming off ankle surgery and being much older.

Your hypothetical scenario is a poorly set up one from the ground up. 08 was Fed’s prime compared to being a solid decade past his prime in 2019. Plus there’s a much bigger gap in level of play between 08dal and 19 Timmy vs 19 Joker and 22 Mad Lad.

So now you're arguing it wasn't nerves and Nadal would have made just as many errors against anyone else since his movement problem is independent of the opponent? Why didn't he make them against Tsitsipas then?
I didn't notice 2022dal going bigger on second serves either, it's not like his 2019 serve was a puffball.

 

[The Blond Blur]

So now you're arguing it wasn't nerves and Nadal would have made just as many errors against anyone else since his movement problem is independent of the opponent? Why didn't he make them against Tsitsipas then?
I didn't notice 2022dal going bigger on second serves either, it's not like his 2019 serve was a puffball.

Dude, I never said he wasn’t nervous or changed my argument. In fact I said the exact opposite. But It doesn’t have to be a mutually exclusive affair. Two things can be true at the same time. He was clearly more nervous in the 2019 F, but he also moved worse too imo due to the lingering effects from his 2018 ankle surgery. 2019 Citybus playing in his first ever GS SF was clearly worse than either 2019 and 2022 Mad Lad. His ROS and OHBH were far bigger holes in his game that were readily exposed. He was obviously far less equipped to take advantage of 19dal’s poor movement.

Then you weren’t paying close enough attention. It was mentioned numerous times throughout the 22 AO that he was going bigger on his 2nd serves than previous years there.

 

[The Blond Blur]

The ankle analogy with 06rer at AO is a good point.

Ofc course it is but sadly common sense is in short supply these days.

 

[AnOctorokForDinner]

Dude, I never said he wasn’t nervous or changed my argument. In fact I said the exact opposite. But It doesn’t have to be a mutually exclusive affair. Two things can be true at the same time. He was clearly more nervous in the 2019 F, but he also moved worse too imo due to the lingering effects from his 2018 ankle surgery. 2019 Citybus playing in his first ever GS SF was clearly worse than either 2019 and 2022 Mad Lad. His ROS and OHBH were far bigger holes in his game that were readily exposed. He was obviously far less equipped to take advantage of 19dal’s poor movement.

Then you weren’t paying close enough attention. It was mentioned numerous times throughout the 22 AO that he was going bigger on his 2nd serves than previous years there.

I'll give that it's possible, not an unassailable truth as you seem to think though. Don't see Feebledev beating him anyway, the matchup is stacked enormously against him.

On the last point, we need match to match data to compare, words won't cut it.

 

[GabeT]

I alluded to this at the end of my post.

This is exactly why I believe the eye test to be literally the best thing we have for assessing player level (complemented with the few stats we have available of course)… because it at least addresses those factors that the stats literally do not tell us anything about, rather than pretending they don’t exist.

I will quibble with your takedown of the 1st serve % though. Any effect that the opponent may have on this number is purely mental and often negligible. In any case, even if those numbers do go down due to this psychological effect, it’s still a mark against the player in question for allowing their serve to succumb in this manner. In fact, it’s something that may be used to differentiate between good and truly great servers as I haven’t ever seen this induced drop in 1st serve % be the case for the greats.

Now, moving back to the main point, statistics in tennis are incredibly lacking and they trail behind tons of other sports, which forces us to make up the difference by performing a more careful examination of the matches in question. That’s why whenever Waspsting makes those match reports of his, he always provides commentary on those matches that analyze whatever is missing in a purely statistical analysis. Are they subjective? Sure. But are they still better than anything else we have to assess level? Yes, at least until (unless?) we have better statistical measures to work with.

Not exactly an alien concept either, since the majority of tennis commentators and experts have employed the eye test in the past to conduct analyses of matches in the absence of more grounded methods. The players you quote also relied on their subjective experiences with Djokovic to give us a taste of what it’s like playing him. It’s not really something you can tell by looking at the stats but that hardly makes it useless.

Using this method, there are a few other things to point out in the 2019 AO final. I believe them to be obvious because I don’t think they veer into the more obscure areas of eye tests (the most common of which being “was this a good tactic?”). These are more straightforward.

1. Djokovic placed his groundstrokes very deep—especially off the backhand—and maintained firm pace.

2. Djokovic moved relatively well and tracked down many of Nadal’s trickier shots efficiently.

3. Djokovic served well. I’ve already discussed this but he got a lot of first serves in and kept Nadal on the back foot.

4. Nadal was sluggish off the ground. You’ve seen it in a few of those GIFs that got posted frequently here, but there were plenty of occasions during which he didn’t even try to chase down balls that—while well placed—would still have been within a fitter player’s reach (i.e. youngdal). His draw before the final was very easy too; it’s not like he was exhausted after a tough gauntlet of opponents.

5. Nadal was prone to uncharacteristic errors. About half of his unforced errors came against neutral rally shots. Usually, he’d be the one outlasting his opponent and allowing them to fall apart, but you basically never see him on the receiving end of such an exchange, even in most of his other matches with Djokovic.

I think it’s tough to say for sure if Djokovic’s excellence or Nadal’s underperformance was the bigger factor in the match’s result, but I think it’s very clear that they were both factors. Personally, this is a far easier match to analyze than some of their other encounters.

I dont trust the eye test analysis. Not only because we’ve seen here over and over that posters are not good at judging relative levels but also because of the large amount of research that shows our minds fool us into thinking we understand what’s going on when we don’t. This goes way beyond tennis by the way.

 

[alexio]

one guy who loves statistics very much.. decided to have some fun and wrote one forecast for one match, based only on statistics, and at the end he added, i clearly remember those words.. come on guys, hurry up, if someone hasn’t bet yet, hurry up and place on meddy... and what match was it, oh yeah, ive remembered, it was before the australian final in 21 haha

 

[The Blond Blur]

I'll give that it's possible, not an unassailable truth as you seem to think though. Don't see Feebledev beating him anyway, the matchup is stacked enormously against him.

On the last point, we need match to match data to compare, words won't cut it.

Probably not, I just think 22dal played less terribad than 19dal.

 

[Subway Tennis]

He did at least win a set in 14 before RAFA unleashed the FHDTL. After that there was little to nothing Joker could do. RG 14 was a candidate for worst. I also thought about putting 15 as the worst since he did play very passive which allowed Stan to dominate him.

Oh yeah 2015 RG is a good shout, too.