Tennisbase uses a ranking similar to the latest ATP one for all years. Nole 2015 has bigger gaps than Mac 1984.I know there's no data for the 1980s and the rankings were different back then, but...I have to imagine the biggest gap ever was in 1984. #1 McEnroe was 82-3. #10 Noah was 25-10 w/0 titles, and the only Major he played was the French (QF loss).
Peak of the strong baseliner era.2009
1) FEDERER 10550
5) DEL POTRO 6785 .. 64,31%
10) TSONGA 2875 .. 27,25%
Greats Del Potro numbers. Number 1 and 5 close.
I know there's no data for the 1980s and the rankings were different back then, but...I have to imagine the biggest gap ever was in 1984. #1 McEnroe was 82-3. #10 Noah was 25-10 w/0 titles, and the only Major he played was the French (QF loss).
Tennisbase uses a ranking similar to the latest ATP one for all years. Nole 2015 has bigger gaps than Mac 1984.
Let's bring this thread back where it should be. For some time I was nagging @pc1 for info on Mac's '84 and now that I have it (he actually emailed it to me nearly two weeks ago, so the ridiculous delay is entirely on me) I thought I'd provide y'all with yet another (in)valuable lesson.
Some of you may recall me wondering at the end of last year's YEC (I refuse to ever adopt WTF, and not because I'm a prude, I assure you) if Novak just had an even better season than Mac's 84 or Fed's '06. I eventually decided that Mac's funhouse season was still better, but I was still somewhat hesitant about it for what I felt to be good reasons. Well, it's not very often I say this but I'm even more certain about it now. First let's run the numbers:
Mac in '84 (including the YEC in early '85)
Fed in '06
- 82-3 win-loss match record, for 96.5% (the stat y'all are most familiar with)
- 195-23 set record, for 89.4% won
- 1279-679 game record, for 65.32% won
Nole in '15
- 92-5, or 94.8%
- 221-40, or 84.7%
- 1556-965, or 61.7%
As you can see, while the match win-loss %s alone may be close between the three Mac has a big edge over the other two in %s of sets and games (both service and return) won, and as pc1 correctly argues those %s are better indicators of overall tennis prowess than the ubiquitous match winning % (FYI Rafa himself never exceeded the 61% range). And get this: Mac had a stunning 24-2 record against his 10 top peers (92.3%), his remaining 3rd loss coming against the dangerous big-serving floater Amritraj, while Fed had a 19-4 record against his own top 10 (82.6%) and Novak went 31–5 (86.11%) last year. Djokovic's "record" 2015 season doesn't sound so unprecedented now, does it? (For the record he still had a record # of wins vs. top 10, but obviously that ain't everything.) Even considering the unreliability of the ATP rankings at the time a 6-10% advantage here is huge.
- 82-6, or 93.2%
- 195-37, or 84.1%
- 1369-815, or 62.7%
And here are Mac's H2Hs against his own Big 3: 6-1 vs. Lendl (yes, that one at RG was his lone loss), 6-0 vs. Jimbo, and 3-0 vs Wilander. Again Fed and Novak lag clearly behind. Given all these advantages to Mac and considering his doubles achievements in the same year I just don't see how one can make a strong argument against his '84 being the 2nd best season of the Open era. The only thing I can think of is that Mac suffered not one but two big losses that year, the 2nd spoiler being Sundstrom in the DC finals, but that's obviously comparing apples and oranges (needless to say neither Fed nor Novak played the DC finals in his respective season, or participated all the way for that matter which if anything works in Mac's favor) and as Moose told me Henrik played one hell of a match to dethrone Mac:
So there it is. For me the only season superior to Mac's '84 is Laver's still unsurpassed '69, and only because Rocket managed to win the most important event on every surface. One slip by Rod and I would've declared Mac the winner without hesitation.
P.S. pc1 also gave me the %s of games won in the following notable years:
Budge in '37 - 982 GW, 549 GL for 64.14%
Budge in '38 - 780 GW, 464 GL for 62.70%
Fed in '04 - 1245 GW, 767 GL for 61.88%
Agassi in '95 - 1192 GW, 746 GL for 61.51%
Just two things.Pfft. Doesn't matter how big this "gap" is when you can separate yourself like this::
Not terribly close when you compare the game/set %s. Factor in doubles and it's hard not to declare Mac's '84 season the 2nd best of the Open Era, and arguably the most dominant.
Just two things.
Laver 1969 is still probably the best Open Era season, but he didn’t win the top event in every surface. Top hardcourt event was Las Vegas, by far. And the indoor one is debatable, for example I would say MSG Open was the best one (but Philly/Wembley are there too).
Mac had a very dominant season but 1984 schedule was less strict than 2006-2015 schedule. Make him play Montecarlo and Rome/Madrid like Fed and Nole did. Red clay is not green clay and in fact Mac lost 2 of his matches on red clay. Also, make him play (a player like) Nadal 3 times on red clay and you’ll see how his numbers drop
Vegas had way better prize money (40k to 25k) and better competition with almost the full top15.Still prefer Laver's '69 campaign myself. Not sure I'd agree that Vegas was the #1 HC event "by far." Johannesburg is generally referred to as a top HC event and of course Big Pancho lost there to Drysdale himself.
You don't need to convince me of the difference between red and green clay, but one of Mac's two losses on the former came indoors and in a DC tie at the year-end to boot. Plus he was toying with his opponents just about everywhere so I doubt his game/set %s would've been affected all that much. Remember, we're dealing with roughly 3-4%/5% differences here. Those gaps would be close enough if we were comparing CC seasons only, but not when we're talking a mere 3 matches out of whole seasons. Case in point: even if you assume Mac loses every single game of an extra 3 best-of-5 matches his game % in '84 would drop to 63.6% only, still an almost full point higher than '15 Novak's.
Vegas had way better prize money (40k to 25k) and better competition with almost the full top15.
It would be nice to see the stats Mac-Fed taking clay away from both. And taking into consideration that overall serve was less effective in 1984 than 2006, so easier to break.
My point on the 1969 season is not if it’s more or less difficult to sweep the four majors. It is about the harcourt best event. Johannesburg was very good, but probably the third best. PSW has better competition too. Johannesburg was deeper, but first two rounds were filled by desperate South Africans.Yes but the SA Open draw was no peanuts, either. And it's quite debatable whether completing a Grand Slam on 2 surfaces is less challenging than pulling off the same on 3. In fact one could well argue the opposite as the lack of a HC major presumably makes the grass-clay transition even more difficult.
Don't have '84 Mac's breakdown but I've got Fed's GW% sans clay: 62.1% (1214/1955), so hardly much better than his actual 61.7%. Like I said 3 matches ain't likely to change a yearlong stat by much.
And it's indeed undeniable that serves overall were less effective in '84, but the opposite is also true which would more or less cancel each other out. Plus Mac's serve is probably at least as good as Fed's if not even better relatively speaking, so I don't think the service factor would be decisive either way.
My point on the 1969 season is not if it’s more or less difficult to sweep the four majors. It is about the harcourt best event. Johannesburg was very good, but probably the third best. PSW has better competition too. Johannesburg was deeper, but first two rounds were filled by desperate South Africans.
Laver season is the best in my opinion, with or without the best hardcourt event in his pocket, but Pancho nailed the two top hardcourt events.
Regarding Mac/Fed/Nole, if service is less effective, the best player wins the most points as he’s not penalized by big serves. So I’m not so sure that the ”opposite would more or less cancel each other out”. In a few words: on their serves they win most of the games, on their return games Mac had big advantage on Fed/Nole.
Pfft. Doesn't matter how big this "gap" is when you can separate yourself like this::
Not terribly close when you compare the game/set %s. Factor in doubles and it's hard not to declare Mac's '84 season the 2nd best of the Open Era, and arguably the most dominant.
...except that he lost the first major final he reached (French Open), showing mental weakness when distracted in that match. Also, he lost against three men that year, whereas Federer in 2006 lost against only two - it's just that Roger met clay god Nadal multiple times.
I'll keep Mac 1984 at 4th on my list, thank you very much.
Sorry but it's hard to take your post seriously when you're trotting out the hackneyed Mac-let-it-slip-away myth. Go see (since you clearly haven't) the 3rd set and then ask yourself if it was indeed Mac giving it away or Lendl upping his game and turning the match around.
As I've pointed out already that loss to 6th-ranked Sundstrom came in a DC tie and at the very end of the year to boot, whereas your boy, as was his wont back then, skipped DC except to keep his country in the WG. And Murray was ranked only 21st when he upset Fed at Cincy.
The mere fact that Fed played the clay god three times is irrelevant if he would lose to Lendl as well. Call me biased but I prefer Ivan in this matchup, not just because he was more dominant going into the FO final but also because Mac had beaten him twice on clay (granted once on the green stuff) and yet he was still able to prevail.
And it's not just his superior match-win % but also his big edge in % of games/sets won as well as his doubles success that pushes Mac over his competition except '69 Laver. You're free to keep him where you want but don't expect serious fans to take your half-baked rationale seriously.
I'm not denying that Lendl turned it around, he was clearly a great player himself - although one prone to choking on the biggest occasions during those years. It was Mac who was the supposed big match player, yet he allowed the Czech choker (as he was then) back into the match.
Federer isn't "my boy", by the way - that would be Sampras. Anyhoo, moving on from that slur, the point is that McEnroe lost to Sundstrom and Amritraj (who was ranked outside the top 100), whereas Federer lost several times to the undisputed greatest player ever on a particular surface, and a future 3-time slam champion in Murray. Sure, Federer had one more loss, but the calibre of those he was defeated by was on average higher.
Federer was a shanked forehand away from defeating Nadal at the Rome tournament in 2006. Of course we can never prove cross-era hypotheticals, but I think 2006 Federer would have had a good chance of defeating 1984 Lendl on clay. Note, I am not claiming he would have put together a finer clay career than Ivan overall - but in those particular years, Roger would have stood a decent chance of prevailing.
I'm not sure why the % of games/sets won is so important to you. What's the point of racking up 6-0, 6-1, 6-1 type scorelines in the early rounds if you're going to be bested by Lendl in the final? I maintain that Mac 1984 remains the 4th greatest season of the Open Era, behind Laver (1969), Novak Djokovic (2015) and Federer (2006).
The problem on what you are doing is that distance between W-F-SF-QF-R16-R32-R64 changed proportionally during the eras. Now it’s almost 1:2 every round, before it was a lot less. That’s way the more you go back, the more the 5th and the 10th are closer to the 1st1998
1) SAMPRAS 3915
5) KUERTEN 3159 .. 80,69%
10) KRAJICECK 2548 .. 65,08%
1999 has an extremely short ranking. Number 1 has a very high margin on both 5 and 10 which seems to be due to a very good performance of the numbers 5 and 10 compared to many other years but above all to an extremely low Sampras score. ..looks like a number 3 or 4.
Seems a number 2 (.. or 3).
Great intuition NoMercy.The problem on what you are doing is that distance between W-F-SF-QF-R16-R32-R64 changed proportionally during the eras. Now it’s almost 1:2 every round, before it was a lot less. That’s way the more you go back, the more the 5th and the 10th are closer to the 1st
How was that allowing Lendl back into the match when you acknowledge he was the one who turned it around? A single break means next to nothing on clay, as you should well know from all those Fedal matches at RG. And Ivan played a hell of a return game (or several) to change the flow of the match.
Again it's a fact that Sundstrom (6th) was ranked higher at the time than Murray (21st). Andy in fact never got past the 4th round at any of the Slams in '06, whereas Henrik made the QF at '84 RG which of course shared the same type of surface as the DC finals in December. And I repeat, that's a loss that Mac could've easily avoided by not participating.
So the proper comparison is between (a very green) Murray and 70th-ranked (not outside the top 100 - not sure where you got that from) Amritraj. It certainly seems to favor the Brit, until you recognize that the big-serving Amritraj could take down anyone and probably posed a bigger threat on select days than young Murray ever did, especially on Cincy's fast HC (in fact the very fastest, if the numbers were similar back then). A post hoc shout-out to Murray's overall resume here is like touting Arnaud Boetsch as a good dirtballer 'cause he was able to knock out Lendl at '94 RG.
The '06 Rome final is a classic and rightly so, but as Novak and Fed himself would tell you it's one thing to put together a flawless performance at a Masters or smaller event and quite another to replicate it at a major. Hell that's exactly what Mac would tell you, too. Plus Fed probably never came in much more on clay than in that final, and unless you happen to be a Panatta or Noah who's spent his whole career honing a specialized kind of net rushing for dirt (as opposed to full-on S&V) you're not likely to have consistent success at repeating the same balance between aggression and patience.
As I've explained time and again that consistency as well as patience generally wins over flashes of brilliance on clay in the long term. And Lendl's edge % of games won in '84 vs. Fed's in '06 was not an anomaly. Fed has cracked the magic 60% mark only once in his competitive years while it's almost certain Lendl pulled it off more than 2-3 times, and probably by a comfortable margin at that. CC tennis is an almost different game, and while atypical (relatively speaking - there are hardly any genuine dirtballers today) standouts like the '06 Rome F or the '11 FO SF may get most of the attention it's actually more "boring" matchups like Lendl-Wilander or Bruguera-Courier that produce a more lasting formula for winning on clay. Of course it's possible Fed brings his '06 Rome brilliance to his hypothetical showdown with Lendl, but I say it's unlikely, especially given Ivan's hunger at the time.
That should answer your question about the importance of GW%, but even on faster surfaces it's a fairly good barometer as you can see that Fed's and Novak's %s were very close. @NoMercy thinks Mac's % would take a dip in this serve-friendly era where his return % would suffer accordingly, and it's a reasonable guess, but I disagree. Rather I think Mac's unique mix of lefty disguise and spin, preternatural touch and net coverage, unreal return positioning (think SABR but even beter), and impossible-to-describe racquet wizardry would discombobulate pretty much anyone* especially in this era, and that more than anything else probably explains Mac's sizable edge over both '06 Fed and '15 Novak.
*While I'm at it I think out of all ATGs/GOATs Sampras would handle that deadly combo of Mac's the best. Pete was rather "simple" in his mindset and approach, and if you couldn't blow him off the court or make him feel threatened even on 2nd serves - basically do to him what he did to everybody, yes - he was pretty much in cruise control even against the biggest names on his good days. Of course Mac's lack of "power" is highly exaggerated and he'd bring a special set of challenges that no one else could, but I still think Pete takes this the majority of times.
That’s why I wrote about the Tennisbase rankings. The system is the same and for the Open era works pretty good.Great intuition NoMercy.
Indeed it is problematic to compare different decades. Perhaps the only use is to compare ten close years (a decade). I don't know, I finish the little job (slowly) ... then ... we'll see.
Thanks, that's a very comprehensive answer. I'll need to read more into the importance of game win %.
Still not necessarily sure I would put Mac's 1984 as the undisputed No 2 season of the Open Era, but I can see where you're coming from.
| 1 – 5 | | 1 – 10 |
MURRAY | 39,52% | DJOKOVIC | 23,18% |
DJOKOVIC | 42,47% | NADAL | 24,45% |
FEDERER | 43,26% | MURRAY | 24,66% |
NADAL | 44,08% | FEDERER | 27,13% |
AGASSI | 51,53% | RODDICK | 35,50% |
BORG | 56,86% | BORG | 36,84% |
CONNORS | 58,06% | CONNORS | 40,22% |
HEWITT | 64,07% | AGASSI | 41,50% |
SAMPRAS | 64,73% | HEWITT | 45,03% |
KUERTEN | 69,96% | KUERTEN | 48,15% |
COURIER | 70,30% | SAMPRAS | 48,16% |
RODDICK | 73,43% | COURIER | 50,46% |
| 1 – 10 | ||
DJOKOVIC | 23,18% | ||
NADAL | 24,45% | ||
FEDERER | 27,13% | ||
CONNORS | 40,22% | ||
SAMPRAS | 48,16% | ||
2 years ATP number one | | ||
BORG | 36,84% | ||
EDBERG | 39,68% | ||
HEWITT | 45,03% | ||
1 year ATP number one | | ||
MURRAY | 24,66% | ||
RODDICK | 35,50% | ||
AGASSI | 41,50% | ||
KUERTEN | 48,15% | ||
COURIER | 50,46% |