Can Federer realistically get one more slam?

[Robert F]

Defintiely still in the mix.
But I think you need a couple of qualifiers
1.) Good draw
2.) Not having to play both Djoker or Nadal (guess this goes back to the draw)
3.) Did he get another super training block from his injury that gave him great rest and kept him sharp like in 2017?
4.) Play a limited schedule--enough to get a feel for the tour, but not so much that he can't play 7 sharp slam matches. Might have to start skipping more Masters.

I think this is his best shot at AO. If he does well there QF or farther then I'd put him as a contender for Wimby 2021 and 2022.
If he really limits his schedule and does a good training block after Wimby, he might be able to get a US Open.

 

[mental midget]

gonna be tougher than ever. younger players are getting stronger and the old nemeses are still floating around. first couple tourneys will tell a lot, see if he's got the...vigor, i guess, to stay in the dogfights out there. i'd love to see him spend the off-season just nuking groundies and adding a few mph to the serve, play almost like when a guy gets injured and swings for the fences. he's got the racket skills to just maybe pull it off.

 

[DSH]

Nadal is pretty much one annual RG victory away from being ahead in the slam race, and Djokovic has surely fallen too far behind to challenge at RG anymore.

The question is, can Federer win one more slam to get to #21? And where would his best chance realistically be?

I think one more Wimbledon is possible. And I know it’s a stretch but if Djokovic doesn’t play in Australia, I’d put Federer as the favorite there over Nadal to win the tournament.

Thoughts?

 

[Subway Tennis]

2021 could really be his last year...I just hope he comes to Australia one last time.

He has already guaranteed he will be here for 2021 AO, which is great news.

 

[D.Nalby12]

Federer needs to find the way to be competitive at USO again. If he remains contender at 3/4 Slams there is good chance he wins another. But luck surely not on his side as USO conditions no longer favour him and they slowed down AO court as well. So he is left with Wimbledon only if he wants to win any - that's hard. If he bribes his way and makes USO/AO court play faster then we can talk.

 

[clout]

He'll be a threat at Wimbledon till the very end but the chances are slim since he's turning 40 next year ffs

AO, he will need all the stars to align and more; I could probably name a handful of players who can challenge and beat him in Melbourne who aren't even named Djokodal

USO and RG he hasn't won in over a decade and the hot muggy conditions in NYC just don't suit him anymore as he's no longer 26

 

[GhostOfNKDM]

Assuming the physical comeback is flawless, the only chance he has is at Wimbledon. I’d be plesantly surprised if he did win another.

A successful comeback at this stage might be more like making week two at any major and snagging an indoor title or two like Basel or Shanghai.

I think he’s going to try breaking Connor’s record for sure.

 

[cork_screw]

Of course, he basically needs djokovic, nadal and any hard hitting rising next gen star to get injured or upset to clear a cake walk draw. He's not beating djokovic on any surface and he got lucky beating nadal twice in 2017, that won't happen again.

Nadal is pretty much one annual RG victory away from being ahead in the slam race, and Djokovic has surely fallen too far behind to challenge at RG anymore.

The question is, can Federer win one more slam to get to #21? And where would his best chance realistically be?

I think one more Wimbledon is possible. And I know it’s a stretch but if Djokovic doesn’t play in Australia, I’d put Federer as the favorite there over Nadal to win the tournament.

Thoughts?

 

[Red Rick]

Define realistic

 

[TheNachoMan]

I think he’s going to try breaking Connor’s record for sure.

I don’t think he’s going to be playing random ATP 250s and 500s to break that record. It’s majors that matter at his age

Roger Federer says that Jimmy Connors' all-time title record will not be a factor in retirement date - Tennis365

Roger Federer says that Jimmy Connors all-time record of 109 ATP Tour wins will not be a factor in his decision when the time eventually comes to retire.

www.tennis365.com

 

[DSH]

Federer will not win Majors again.
Wimbledon 2019 was his last chance.

 

[Nadal_King]

I think yes. Now that Nadal is no longer scared of Djokovic, if Nadal takes out Djokovic at AO, Fed has a shot there. Also Wimbledon he has a shot. I don't know about USO or FO.

Lol if Nadal can beat djokovic at Ao then he for sure can beat federer remember he was a break up against him at Ao17 and has always had the upper hand at Slams apart from Wimb19 or a close Ao17

 

[UnderratedSlam]

He's never taken a 12-month break from tennis. It should be interesting.

If he teams up with Wawrinka they could win not one but numerous slams.

 

[UnderratedSlam]

In the weakest tennis era ever anything's possible but this probably won't happen.

GonzalesGOAT?

 

[Deleted member 771911]

In 2019, he got a point away from one and he could not do it.
Why would he have a chance two years later aged 40?
The guys around him are still the same, the ones below him getting better.

 

[Patogen]

The hard major ship has sailed. This nextgen is too good on hard, and they'll be getting better, while Roger is getting older. It's not gonna happen anywhere but in Wimbledon, if it's gonna happen.

The problem is, in spite of all the talent, coming back so old and after such a long break (although tennis barely kept moving on) could prove too hard of a task even for Roger. Realistically yes, if stars align at Wimbledon. But he's got a couple of attempts at most.

 

[GhostOfNKDM]

I don’t think he’s going to be playing random ATP 250s and 500s to break that record. It’s majors that matter at his age

Roger Federer says that Jimmy Connors' all-time title record will not be a factor in retirement date - Tennis365

Roger Federer says that Jimmy Connors all-time record of 109 ATP Tour wins will not be a factor in his decision when the time eventually comes to retire.

www.tennis365.com

Perhaps. Let's see how well his recovery/comeback goes.

If it isn’t all as rosy as 2017, which is likelier given his age, I think he just might downgrade to winning a few more titles, soak in applause at smaller events around the world. No?

(Not that I don’t wish he should do well at the slams. Quite the opposite)

 

[ericarnett88]

..

 

[Federev]

Nadal is pretty much one annual RG victory away from being ahead in the slam race, and Djokovic has surely fallen too far behind to challenge at RG anymore.

The question is, can Federer win one more slam to get to #21? And where would his best chance realistically be?

I think one more Wimbledon is possible. And I know it’s a stretch but if Djokovic doesn’t play in Australia, I’d put Federer as the favorite there over Nadal to win the tournament.

Thoughts?

UUMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmAYBE

 

[terribleIVAN]

Even supposing his knees hold up until the semis, which already is a given impossibility at 40, he will be physically done and fall an easy prey for whoever faces him there.

Fed now finds himself exactly in the same position as Serena, needing almost divine intervention to win that last, elusive, record-breaking, so much sought-after last slam.

2021 will be Fed and Murray's last year on the tour.

 

[Rosstour]

Federer will not beat Nadal on a hard court over 5 sets. He is 3-1 down when he was younger and fitter.

I think a lot of people thought the same right before AO17 final. lol

The logic of him being down even when younger and fitter assumes that Rafa hasn't also aged.

 

[Milanez82]

Realistically nope
He is done and only pandemia has taken the spotlight off the fact he is about to hit 40 and hasnt been able to recover from an injury for a full year
People should be happy we get a master class performance here and there and maybe one dream run in Tokyo

 

[daphne]

No chance. ZERO. 0%

It is questionable whether he will be able to play. We may see a repeat of Muggy.

 

[Xemi666]

Yes, he just needs a bit of luck with the draw. Federer was still getting to late stages on the slams consistently, so he's very much still in the mix.

 

[HetTheGreaterer]

No

 

[Krish0608]

Yes, but he needs to kinda vulture it. He needs guys who can beat Djokodal and mug it up against him. He can still have a good shot against Rafa on non-clay surfaces, but at 40 you have to ask the question: For how much longer?

 

[Patogen]

Even supposing his knees hold up until the semis, which already is a given impossibility at 40, he will be physically done and fall an easy prey for whoever faces him there.

A lot of people fail to realize this. I remember reading an interview with Kodes where the interviewer asked him "at what age did you begin to feel past your best?"

And he replied, believe it or not, "probably around twenty-seven". And he expounded on it, saying "it's not that you can't play tennis anymore, or that you can't play your greatest tennis any longer. It's that you feel playing your greatest tennis in subsequent matches gets much harder. So you can still beat the best players out there, but beating a couple of them in a row becomes much more of a task. And that's what usually happens at majors, where you have to face better and better players the deeper you get, and playing two matches in a row, like semis and the final, at your absolute best is much more challenging. But that's precisely what you need at majors. That's why winning majors becomes so much harder as you age."

Fed can still play like a tennis god in week one. But maintaining that level and recovering from tough five-setters deeper in is just nearly impossibly hard at his age.

 

[Beckerserve]

I think a lot of people thought the same right before AO17 final. lol

The logic of him being down even when younger and fitter assumes that Rafa hasn't also aged.

Rafa is a bad match up for Roger on any surface over 5 sets. The way Rafa moved against Djokovic he clearly has his retrieval skills if he is motivated which he would be v Federer at a slam.
Best of 3 sets Roger probably beats Rafa outside of clay. Best of 3 and best of 5 are worlds apart though tactically and mentally.

 

[Rosstour]

Rafa is a bad match up for Roger on any surface over 5 sets. The way Rafa moved against Djokovic he clearly has his retrieval skills if he is motivated which he would be v Federer at a slam.
Best of 3 sets Roger probably beats Rafa outside of clay. Best of 3 and best of 5 are worlds apart though tactically and mentally.

So then why did Rafa lose at AO17 and W19?

 

[Beckerserve]

So then why did Rafa lose at AO17 and W19?

Grass Federer is a better player but Nadal played badly and it still took Federer 3 hrs to beat him.
AO 2017 Nadal was coming off an injury break had a days less rest after a 5hr SF. His physical advantage over Federer was therefore negated.

 

[pj80]

2021 could really be his last year...I just hope he comes to Australia one last time.

people have said that for years...fed will be around at least another 3 years

 

[Rosstour]

Grass Federer is a better player but Nadal played badly and it still took Federer 3 hrs to beat him.
AO 2017 Nadal was coming off an injury break had a days less rest after a 5hr SF. His physical advantage over Federer was therefore negated.

So basically, Federer still can't beat Rafa. Is that what you're saying?

 

[Beckerserve]

So basically, Federer still can't beat Rafa. Is that what you're saying?

Best of 5 i think unlikely outside W.
Best of 3 Federer can still beat Rafa and any player.
When Roger is hot he is tough to stop. But once he starts feeling the legs after about 2 and a half hours he can be worked over as his footwork gets a bit slower and then he starts mistiming the ball.
What he should do is go Sampras style now and serve volley all the time. I think he is good enough to pull it off. But he will never do it.

 

[Rosstour]

Best of 5 i think unlikely outside W.
Best of 3 Federer can still beat Rafa and any player.
When Roger is hot he is tough to stop. But once he starts feeling the legs after about 2 and a half hours he can be worked over as his footwork gets a bit slower and then he starts mistiming the ball.
What he should do is go Sampras style now and serve volley all the time. I think he is good enough to pull it off. But he will never do it.

I've really tried to take you seriously since you seem really chippy and I didn't want to get on your bad side.

But you're arguing something that isn't backed up by reality. Rafa went down to Roger at two of their last three Slam meetings...and you are saying that Roger can't beat Rafa at Slams.

Now you are saying that Fed should imitate Sampras, who washed out of pro tennis at 31.

 

[Beckerserve]

I've really tried to take you seriously since you seem really chippy and I didn't want to get on your bad side.

But you're arguing something that isn't backed up by reality. Rafa went down to Roger at two of their last three Slam meetings...and you are saying that Roger can't beat Rafa at Slams.

Now you are saying that Fed should imitate Sampras, who washed out of pro tennis at 31.

Dude not being funny but next year is 2021. Federer last beat Nadal over 5 sets outside W 4 years ago and that was first time since 2007!!
Sampras was washed up in 2002 and won the USO by serve volleying everything. He said if he loses it will be on his terms. He trusted in his talent. Federer should do the same. He is 40 next year. Baseline grinding will not be his friend.

 

[Rosstour]

Dude not being funny but next year is 2021. Federer last beat Nadal over 5 sets outside W 4 years ago and that was first time since 2007!!

And Nadal last beat Fed in Bo5 outside RG...7 years ago

Yet you remain convinced that Fed can't beat Rafa in Bo5. I really don't know what to say anymore.

 

[McEnborg]

There is no way at 39 1/2 that Roger could win seven best of 5 sets on hard court....especially with how much Rublev, Tsitsipas, Thiem, Zverev, Coric and other young guys have improved.
Roger barely beat Tennys Sandgren last year!

 

[Beckerserve]

And Nadal last beat Fed in Bo5 outside RG...7 years ago

Yet you remain convinced that Fed can't beat Rafa in Bo5. I really don't know what to say anymore.

But since 2017 Nadal has 4 Majors. The latest a few weeks ago. He won a HC Major a year ago.
Federer not won a Major in 3 years.
Nadal obviously would be a huge favourite now at 3 of 4 Majors.

 

[TheNachoMan]

Dude not being funny but next year is 2021. Federer last beat Nadal over 5 sets outside W 4 years ago and that was first time since 2007!!
Sampras was washed up in 2002 and won the USO by serve volleying everything. He said if he loses it will be on his terms. He trusted in his talent. Federer should do the same. He is 40 next year. Baseline grinding will not be his friend.

PETE went out like a champion. Maybe Fed should’ve retried after AO 17

 

[Beckerserve]

PETE went out like a champion. Maybe Fed should’ve retried after AO 17

Well he won W 2017 and AO 2018 so he did right thing playing on.
I do think he perhaps should have retired last year though. Nadal equalling his record when he was retired i think has a totally different narrative. Longer he plays on if he keeps losing to Nadal and Djokovic at Majors does tarnish his legacy historically as in 20 years people wont say he was old. They will just look at results.
When he beat Djokovic at WTF last year but then lost to tsitsipas i thought the signs were there that winning big events was going to be a major issue for him.
Sampras retired like a boss man.

 

[aditya123]

Kabhi kabhi Gobar hota hai. Take it easy

 

[Icarus]

Should play on until both Nadal and Djoker break his slam count haha

 

[Rosstour]

But since 2017 Nadal has 4 Majors. The latest a few weeks ago.

Understood but that's a totally different point. First you were talking about H2H and now it's majors won.

Well he won W 2017 and AO 2018 so he did right thing playing on.
I do think he perhaps should have retired last year though. Nadal equalling his record when he was retired i think has a totally different narrative. Longer he plays on if he keeps losing to Nadal and Djokovic at Majors does tarnish his legacy historically as in 20 years people wont say he was old. They will just look at results.
When he beat Djokovic at WTF last year but then lost to tsitsipas i thought the signs were there that winning big events was going to be a major issue for him.
Sampras retired like a boss man.

Sampras was really bad for that last year and his final US Open win was a big surprise.

 

[ChaelAZ]

Can he, yes. Will he, most likely not.

 

[King No1e]

 

[aman92]

Probably Wimbledon but will have to see how he has responded to a second knee surgery. At his age, it isn't a sure thing if he can regain his movement back.

 

[Cashman]

His last three slam results have been SF, QF, F. Anyone who is consistently making it that deep into a single elimination tournament is a good chance to win - it only takes one or two upsets to open the door.

Whether he comes back at that level from this injury lay-off is another matter. Personally I am skeptical.

 

[Cupcake]

I have to say no.

Yes he was close at 2019 Wimbledon, but his next Wimbledon will be 2 years after the fact, and 2 years at that age is an eternity.

Two years after the fact, plus 2 knee surgeries in a 39 y.o. player who hasn't competed in about a year.

Could he still win a slam? sure, but it's highly unlikely.

 

[socallefty]

He beat Djokovic at the 2019 WTF and made it to the semifinals of the 2020AO. So, if he is not feeling adverse after-effects after his knee surgeries this year, he will still be a deserving top 5 player who should make grass and hard court Slam semifinals next year. If you make semifinals consistently, there is always a chance to win another Slam.

So, the wild card is how bad the knee surgery will affect his game.

 

[Beckerserve]

Understood but that's a totally different point. First you were talking about H2H and now it's majors won.



Sampras was really bad for that last year and his final US Open win was a big surprise.

It was but it was also epic how he did it.