Djokovic passes Connors for 269th week at No. 1 in ATP rankings

Towny

Hall of Fame
Congrats to Novak. It's a deserved testament to his incredible consistency at the top of the game. Even if Nadal manages to knock him off the top spot, he'll pass Lendl. And I suspect he'll have a good chance of ending next year as number 1. He may well end up the record holder
 

Zebrev

Hall of Fame
There's now doubts he can take the record from Roger. Rafa will hold the spot in a couple of weeks, and Novak will start draining points if he is out with injury for any length of time.

If Roger can get back to one in the first half of 2020, even for a few weeks, it pushes the record further out of reach.
 
There's now doubts he can take the record from Roger. Rafa will hold the spot in a couple of weeks, and Novak will start draining points if he is out with injury for any length of time.

If Roger can get back to one in the first half of 2020, even for a few weeks, it pushes the record further out of reach.

That's a big if about Federer, but you are right in the first paragraph. Djokovic is guaranteed #1 for the three weeks following this one, which means he will at a minimum get to 272 weeks as #1. But if he really is out for the season, then he will definitely lose the #1 spot the following week, and so be stuck on 272 for a while. If he does continue to play until the end of the season, he could keep the #1 ranking for a few more weeks but he's still likely to be #2 at the end of the season.
 

Mainad

Bionic Poster
Lendl to be surpassed next. 18 more to move past Pete for 2nd position

He will surpass Lendl in another 2 weeks to move into 3rd place on the all-time list. He will need another 17 weeks to move past Sampras and then another 24 weeks to oust Federer from the top spot but they are much less certain targets of course.
 

Zebrev

Hall of Fame
He will surpass Lendl in another 2 weeks to move into 3rd place on the all-time list. He will need another 17 weeks to move past Sampras and then another 24 weeks to oust Federer from the top spot but they are much less certain targets of course.

Federer could reclaim number 1 spot again, don't forget. He can have strong finish to 2019, as he usually does. Perhaps he even wins WTF this time, puts him in a good position. Then, he only has to defend QF points at AO, where he usually makes semis or better. After that point he might be number one, because both Novak and Rafa made finals last year!

Roger is in a good position.
 
Federer could reclaim number 1 spot again, don't forget. He can have strong finish to 2019, as he usually does. Perhaps he even wins WTF this time, puts him in a good position. Then, he only has to defend QF points at AO, where he usually makes semis or better. After that point he might be number one, because both Novak and Rafa made finals last year!

Roger is in a good position.

He's also defending quite a lot of points in the tail-end of the year, though: he won Basel last year and was semi-finalist in Shanghai, Paris, and London. He's actually 4,000 points behind Nadal in the race.

Unless he either starts playing more events (he's played 11 so far in 2019), which is unlikely at his age, or actually wins a big title, I don't think he'll be #1 again. Which is to be expected at 38.
 

Zebrev

Hall of Fame
He's also defending quite a lot of points in the tail-end of the year, though: he won Basel last year and was semi-finalist in Shanghai, Paris, and London. He's actually 4,000 points behind Nadal in the race.

Unless he either starts playing more events (he's played 11 so far in 2019), which is unlikely at his age, or actually wins a big title, I don't think he'll be #1 again. Which is to be expected at 38.

He is behind, but you have to think of the points which Novak and Rafa are unlikely to defend themselves. They both made finals in Australia this year, I don't a repeat again in 2020. I also think Roger is the favourite for WTF now that Novak has a set back. Rafa has historically never done well there.

So say Roger wins Shanghai, and makes semis in Basel and Paris, and wins WTF. A tall order but not out of the question right now. Then he heads into Australia with positive momentum, and makes at least semis. I'd say there's a good chance that Rafa slips up and drops points, meaning Roger could reclaim number one for a few weeks early next year. Rafa has been very consistent, but he never has two great seasons back to back, not even in his prime.
 
He is behind, but you have to think of the points which Novak and Rafa are unlikely to defend themselves. They both made finals in Australia this year, I don't a repeat again in 2020. I also think Roger is the favourite for WTF now that Novak has a set back. Rafa has historically never done well there.

So say Roger wins Shanghai, and makes semis in Basel and Paris, and wins WTF. A tall order but not out of the question right now. Then he heads into Australia with positive momentum, and makes at least semis. I'd say there's a good chance that Rafa slips up and drops points, meaning Roger could reclaim number one for a few weeks early next year. Rafa has been very consistent, but he never has two great seasons back to back, not even in his prime.

Well, for one thing, a Djokovic/Nadal final in Australia is at this point by far the least-unlikely outcome. It is, of course, unlikely, but less so than anything else (and rather less so than the run of results you predict for Federer in the tail-end of this year). For another, Nadal has now had three pretty good seasons in a row. For a third, Federer winning both Shanghai and the WTF are rather long odds. He's got much more chance of winning one of them + Basel.

It is possible that Federer could regain the #1 spot, but it's rather unlikely.
 

Zebrev

Hall of Fame
Well, for one thing, a Djokovic/Nadal final in Australia is at this point by far the least-unlikely outcome. It is, of course, unlikely, but less so than anything else (and rather less so than the run of results you predict for Federer in the tail-end of this year). For another, Nadal has now had three pretty good seasons in a row. For a third, Federer winning both Shanghai and the WTF are rather long odds. He's got much more chance of winning one of them + Basel.

It is possible that Federer could regain the #1 spot, but it's rather unlikely.

I don't think it's that much of a stretch at all. Roger has consistency performed well during this stage of the season for many years (he didn't play during 2016).

Infact the only guy outmatched him 2015, during the post-USO stretch was Novak. This year Novak is in doubt, meaning Roger has an edge.
 
I don't think it's that much of a stretch at all. Roger has consistency performed well during this stage of the season for many years (he didn't play during 2016).

Infact the only guy outmatched him 2015, during the post-USO stretch was Novak. This year Novak is in doubt, meaning Roger has an edge.

I can tell that you don't think it's a stretch. Alas, I suspect that you are conflating desire and belief. I think it's a pretty big stretch. If Djokovic is injured, Federer could well get the #2 position back, but it doesn't look very likely that he'll get the #1 position back, at least not in the scenario you detail of Federer only making the Australian Open semis. I agree that if Federer wins the Australian Open, he has a shot.

Even Federer's #3 position is by no means secure for the end of the year - Medvedev is looming not far behind.
 

zvelf

Hall of Fame
He will surpass Lendl in another 2 weeks to move into 3rd place on the all-time list. He will need another 17 weeks to move past Sampras and then another 24 weeks to oust Federer from the top spot but they are much less certain targets of course.

Yes, less certain, but if Djokovic even plays through age 35, he only has to be #1 for 18% of that time to break Fed's record.
 

sliceroni

Hall of Fame
The GOAT is whomever you want it to be at this point. Even if one player's record or stats surpasses the other, as in any other sport.
 

Zebrev

Hall of Fame
Federer is not getting back to #1 again ever.

Djokovic will probably still take the record even if he loses the YE#1 to Nadal. Only way he doesn't is a super long spell for Nadal at #1 which is unlikely given his history.

IF?!

Novak will lose YE#1 now. Theres no if.

Rogers record is intact, thankfully.
 
D

Deleted member 762343

Guest
Federer and Nadal fans shouldn’t jump the gun and wait a little bit longer.
 

UnderratedSlam

G.O.A.T.
He is behind, but you have to think of the points which Novak and Rafa are unlikely to defend themselves. They both made finals in Australia this year, I don't a repeat again in 2020. I also think Roger is the favourite for WTF now that Novak has a set back. Rafa has historically never done well there.

So say Roger wins Shanghai, and makes semis in Basel and Paris, and wins WTF. A tall order but not out of the question right now. Then he heads into Australia with positive momentum, and makes at least semis. I'd say there's a good chance that Rafa slips up and drops points, meaning Roger could reclaim number one for a few weeks early next year. Rafa has been very consistent, but he never has two great seasons back to back, not even in his prime.
Newsflash; Novak won AO 7 times. It´s not exactly been a struggle for him to defend AO points over this decade.
 

Mike Sams

G.O.A.T.
Nadal will probably overtake him soon. I think he can get to #1 again in Miami/Indian Wells.
Nadal's playing a light season for the remainder of 2019 because he wants to save his knees for Australia. He doesn't care about getting the #1 ranking.
 

Druss

Hall of Fame
I’m pretty sure he’ll pass Sampras too, and quite possibly reach 300+ weeks at No1. At this stage, only the Nadal can stop him from braking Fed’s 310 weeks.
 
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I don't think it's that much of a stretch at all. Roger has consistency performed well during this stage of the season for many years (he didn't play during 2016).

Infact the only guy outmatched him 2015, during the post-USO stretch was Novak. This year Novak is in doubt, meaning Roger has an edge.

What do you think now, less than a month on? Federer is officially out of contention for year-end #1 - even if he wins Basel/Paris/London unbeaten, he'll end up on 8,690 points, and Nadal already has 9,225. Sure, Federer could in that instance still regain #1 after the Australian Open, but your claim was that he's reasonably likely to get back to #1 even without winning the Australian Open.

As I said then, it seems much more likely that Federer loses the #3 ranking and slips to #4 than that he regains #1 (or #2, for that matter).
 
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DSH

Talk Tennis Guru
What do you think now, less than a month on? Federer is officially out of contention for year-end #1 - even if he wins Basel/Paris/London unbeaten, he'll end up on 8,690 points, and Nadal already has 9,225. Sure, Federer could in that instance still regain #1 after the Australian Open, but your claim was that he's reasonably likely to get back to #1 even without winning the Australian Open.

As I said then, it seems much more likely that Federer loses the #3 ranking and slips to #4 than that he regains #1 (or #2, for that matter).

Pray to the Nadal!
:oops::rolleyes:o_O
 
Pray to the Nadal!
:oops::rolleyes:o_O

It makes sense that the unbeaten and unbeatable moral goat, boat, GHOAT and BHOAT would in fact turn out to be a deity worthy of our worship. I thank you for this important discovery. A group of us have been working on uncovering the true achievements of the Modest and Humble Bull for some time. We should have realized this sooner! Bull is God! ;)
 
@Zebrev

Even if Federer wins the Tour Finals, it is mathematically impossible for him to get the #1 ranking back after the Australian Open without winning the Australian Open. Here's why:

1. Best-possible year-end tallies from his point of view: 1. Nadal: 9,985 points, 2. Djokovic: 9,145 points, 3. Federer: 7,490 points.

2. Federer is not playing any Australian Open warmups, nor is he defending any points during those weeks, so he'd be on 7,490 points when the Australian Open began. Nadal is also not defending any points, so his minimum total is 9,985 points. I'm not sure whether he's playing any warmups to add to his tally but let's make the case as positive for Federer as possible and assume that he's not doing and so will be on 9,985 points. Djokovic is defending 90 points in Doha, so best-case scenario for Federer sees Djokovic lose them and be on 9,055 points heading into the Australian Open.

3. Best-case scenario for Federer at the Australian Open other than him winning it: he is runner-up; Djokovic and Nadal both lose in round 1.

4. In this case, points tallies after the Australian Open: 1. Nadal: 8,785 points, 2. Federer: 8,510 points, 3. Djokovic: 7,055 points.

Conclusion: Federer is not getting back the #1 ranking without winning the Australian Open.

His chances of getting it back in February or March aren't great, either, as he won Dubai and Miami and lost the final of Indian Wells this year, so he could gain at most 400 points unless he also plays and wins Rotterdam, but that's a rather unlikely schedule. And Nadal has a good chance to pick up points in those months.
 
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