RF-18
Talk Tennis Guru
In the serve/return department this year for Novak, we have seen two completely different sides on HC and clay and this thread will aim towards showing the huge disparity probably never seen before. As we remember, Djokovic's serve was unreal in AO. He was the player who served the most aces out of any player (100+) and held 90% of his service games. We all noticed how deadly he was on serve. On return, he had a meekly 29%, wich for Djokovic's standards, are very low. That's a career low for Djokovic at the AO excluding his beginning years at tour in 2004 and 2005.
2021 AO return stats
Return games W %: 29.6%
1st RPW: 29%
2nd RPW: 53.7%
Total RPW: 39%
All these return stats, are career lows for Djokovic at the AO. Although his stats in 2017 and 18 AO is a small sample size as he lost pretty early, his return stats looked like this:
2017 AO return
Return %: 30%
1st RPW: 34%
2nd RPW: 57.7%
Total RPW: 42%
2018 AO return
Return %: 38%
1st RPW: 40%
2nd RPW: 53%
Total RPW: 45%
What it tells us? If Djokovic had any issues with his serve at this years AO and didn't put up Sampras like serving and we assume that his return stats still stays the same, it's very hard to see how he would have won AO. These return stats are horrible for Djokovic's standards on HC and as we can see a career low for him excluding his beginner years in 2004 and 2005 at the AO.
What about clay then? His stats on return, are insane, and by big margin a career best for him. While his stats on serve are the complete opposite of what we saw in the beginning of the year, his exceptional returning abilities comes to save him just at the right time.
Djokovic's hold % on clay this year, is only 76%. That's way too low for someone who is pretty much always in the 83%+ vicinity. That's again a career low for him excluding his beginner years in 2004 and 2005. Although his serve stats on clay aren't as bad as his return on HC this year, it's still very bad for his standards and we all did notice during the course of the clay season that his serve wasn't even near his best capabilities. But what happens instead? His incredible returning abilities comes to save him just like his serve saved him at the AO when his return wasn't up to par. Look at these stats:
Return games W: 45%
1st RPW: 43%
2nd RPW: 56%
Total RPW: 48%
His return stats here, eclipses by a good margin his career best on clay. Compared to what is widely acknowledged best versions of Djokovic on clay in 2015 and 2016:
2015 return clay
Return games W: 33%
1st RPW: 33%
2nd RPW: 55.6%
Total RPW: 42%
2016 return clay:
Return games W: 34%
1st RPW: 38%
2nd RPW: 54%
Total RPW: 44%
As we can see, his 2021 stats are otherworldly and better by a big margin than 2015 and 16, and any other year. His return game peaked on clay this year, going by these stats, and it couldn't have arrived at a better time considering his problems on serve.
My take on this: Thanks to Djokovic arguably having the best serve/return combo in the history of the game, he can still win tournaments and matches if one huge part of his game somewhat deserts him. If his serve is troubling him, he shifts focus to his incredible return game and transforms into a demon killing players serves, likewise if his return is troubling him, he shifts focus to becoming a serving demon. I can't think of one player bar maybe Nadal that can afford one huge part of the game to desert them yet still be able to win and win and win.
Also, it tells us IMO how much Djokovic has continued to improve certain aspects of his game and become way more effective. His improvements on serve has helped him to get a killer serve wich he can depend alot on, and his return, wich always has been god tier, is still capable of putting up insane numbers even eclipsing his already insane numbers in the past.
2021 AO return stats
Return games W %: 29.6%
1st RPW: 29%
2nd RPW: 53.7%
Total RPW: 39%
All these return stats, are career lows for Djokovic at the AO. Although his stats in 2017 and 18 AO is a small sample size as he lost pretty early, his return stats looked like this:
2017 AO return
Return %: 30%
1st RPW: 34%
2nd RPW: 57.7%
Total RPW: 42%
2018 AO return
Return %: 38%
1st RPW: 40%
2nd RPW: 53%
Total RPW: 45%
What it tells us? If Djokovic had any issues with his serve at this years AO and didn't put up Sampras like serving and we assume that his return stats still stays the same, it's very hard to see how he would have won AO. These return stats are horrible for Djokovic's standards on HC and as we can see a career low for him excluding his beginner years in 2004 and 2005 at the AO.
What about clay then? His stats on return, are insane, and by big margin a career best for him. While his stats on serve are the complete opposite of what we saw in the beginning of the year, his exceptional returning abilities comes to save him just at the right time.
Djokovic's hold % on clay this year, is only 76%. That's way too low for someone who is pretty much always in the 83%+ vicinity. That's again a career low for him excluding his beginner years in 2004 and 2005. Although his serve stats on clay aren't as bad as his return on HC this year, it's still very bad for his standards and we all did notice during the course of the clay season that his serve wasn't even near his best capabilities. But what happens instead? His incredible returning abilities comes to save him just like his serve saved him at the AO when his return wasn't up to par. Look at these stats:
Return games W: 45%
1st RPW: 43%
2nd RPW: 56%
Total RPW: 48%
His return stats here, eclipses by a good margin his career best on clay. Compared to what is widely acknowledged best versions of Djokovic on clay in 2015 and 2016:
2015 return clay
Return games W: 33%
1st RPW: 33%
2nd RPW: 55.6%
Total RPW: 42%
2016 return clay:
Return games W: 34%
1st RPW: 38%
2nd RPW: 54%
Total RPW: 44%
As we can see, his 2021 stats are otherworldly and better by a big margin than 2015 and 16, and any other year. His return game peaked on clay this year, going by these stats, and it couldn't have arrived at a better time considering his problems on serve.
My take on this: Thanks to Djokovic arguably having the best serve/return combo in the history of the game, he can still win tournaments and matches if one huge part of his game somewhat deserts him. If his serve is troubling him, he shifts focus to his incredible return game and transforms into a demon killing players serves, likewise if his return is troubling him, he shifts focus to becoming a serving demon. I can't think of one player bar maybe Nadal that can afford one huge part of the game to desert them yet still be able to win and win and win.
Also, it tells us IMO how much Djokovic has continued to improve certain aspects of his game and become way more effective. His improvements on serve has helped him to get a killer serve wich he can depend alot on, and his return, wich always has been god tier, is still capable of putting up insane numbers even eclipsing his already insane numbers in the past.
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