ESPN expert picks, they all gave up on Carlos

[beautyistruth!!]

Just a few months ago all the tennis media essentially annointed Carlos as the GOAT heir apparent, more complete game than Novak, Fed, Rafa, more upside, quicker, hasn't even nearly reached his full potential yet. Martina even said he was already better than Novak. Well, Carlos lost a few matches after winning Wimbledon and all the sudden he's a second rater, not one ESPN expert has picked Carlos to win the AO24. It's possible Carlos coasted thru fall indoor season after US Open and he can rampage again. It's possible he lost a fraction of desire after winning Wimbledon. It's possible all the impossible expectation for Carlos put too much pressure on him, having to win every tournament he entered. Carlos is far from finished IMO. Though Espn seems to think he's yesterday's news.

ESPN expert picks: Australian Open 2024 Shriver: Djokovic Stubbs: Djokovic Patrick McEnroe: Sinner Brad Gilbert: Djokovic Jarryd Barca: Sinner Bill Connelly: Djokovic Tom Hamilton: Djokovic D'Arcy Maine: Djokovic Jake Michaels: Djokovic Matt Walsh: Sinner

 

[raftervolley]

Why does this surprise you? It's what they always do.

 

[Jonesy]

I'm hoping Carlos surprises me and reaches the final, but i'm not holding my breath on that. Either way, Sinner or Djokovic is taking the title with the chances at 20/80 respectively.

 

[Bartelby]

Sinner would be a worthy slam-winner, but who knows where Novak is at.

 

[Hitman]

Carlos is winning a slam this year at the very least.

 

[beautyistruth!!]

Why does this surprise you? It's what they always do.

Yes. And it's interesting they changed their propaganda agenda so quickly.

 

[beautyistruth!!]

Carlos is winning a slam this year at the very least.

He should for sure, maybe more than one. But the establishment and media may have destroyed him by putting so much pressure and expectation on him to surpass Djokovic's slam record. That was insane to do to him, in their desperation to destroy Novak. So now Carlos has to win every tournament he plays. That's insane pressure on Carlos. He was at his best when under the radar, now he has to do the impossible, win every tournament he plays. He may have mentally tapped out and cut back a fraction in intensity, which has made a difference in his results. It's no fun showing up at every tournament being expected to win.

 

[puppybutts]

1. you treat "media" like a monolith instead of different people with different opinions. you said Martina said Alcaraz was already better than Djokovic but neglected to list her pick.
2. people are allowed to change their opinion
3. historically, alcaraz hasn't done that well at AO. it's not mutually exclusive to say he's the current best heir for the big 3 and also that he likely won't win AO this year
4. most of them picked djokovic to win, so is that really giving up on Carlos, or just going with the obvious choice?

 

[jackson vile]

 

[Rosstour]

Carlos is winning a slam this year at the very least.

Nothing is guaranteed while Novak is active, except for Novak winning at least two Slams.

 

[The Guru]

The Sinner hype is out of control

 

[socallefty]

The Sinner hype is out of control

Can’t blame those who picked Djokovic but surprised by those who picked Sinner when he has made one Slam semifinal (on grass) and had a straight-set loss. Let’s see him show first that he has the physicality to win 7 Bestof5 matches on a hard court when he hasn’t even won 5 matches consecutively in the AO or USO. Recency bias and it is egregious because Fall indoor results have not translated to AO success in a long time.

 

[DIMI_D]

Carlos will win AO 24

 

[lim]

If Rafa plays rg he will be the favorite even if he’s on crutches

 

[Sudacafan]

Carlos is winning a slam this year at the very least.

I can't agree nor disagree with your statement at this point.

 

[Federev]

Just a few months ago all the tennis media essentially annointed Carlos as the GOAT heir apparent, more complete game than Novak, Fed, Rafa, more upside, quicker, hasn't even nearly reached his full potential yet. Martina even said he was already better than Novak. Well, Carlos lost a few matches after winning Wimbledon and all the sudden he's a second rater, not one ESPN expert has picked Carlos to win the AO24. It's possible Carlos coasted thru fall indoor season after US Open and he can rampage again. It's possible he lost a fraction of desire after winning Wimbledon. It's possible all the impossible expectation for Carlos put too much pressure on him, having to win every tournament he entered. Carlos is far from finished IMO. Though Espn seems to think he's yesterday's news.

ESPN expert picks: Australian Open 2024 Shriver: Djokovic Stubbs: Djokovic Patrick McEnroe: Sinner Brad Gilbert: Djokovic Jarryd Barca: Sinner Bill Connelly: Djokovic Tom Hamilton: Djokovic D'Arcy Maine: Djokovic Jake Michaels: Djokovic Matt Walsh: Sinner

No one knows anything.

Novak will keep winning pretty much everything till he doesn’t.

I think he’ll be on top for another 2 years at least, but no one knows.

 

[Terenigma]

Not surprised by the overhype of single-SF-Sinner but not a single vote for Alcaraz and Medvedev is just outright absurd.

Unless Medvedev is like legitimately injured, he should always be the second fave here. Recent form be dammed.

 

[ALCARAZWON]

LOL@Sinner.
I bet Sinner will suck them in for even longer than Tsonga....

 

[Robert F]

I think we are all guilty to overvalue recent results to pick favorites for a tournament. Call it recency bias.
I always hope the pundits have some better insight or special information, but it just reflects the biases we all had.
Carlos slowed down at the end of the year so he can't be contender despite the fact he is a great outdoor player and rises in the big events.
Sinner was hot in Davis Cup so he must be the next best choice.

We see this overbias especially when someone we love or who is popular wins a lucky match then they are known as the next Djokovic.
Any journeyman who beats one of the big 3 and the story is Fed was off that day. Not--Millman can make a run at a slam this year.
Any new comer that beats the big 3 will be the next one to win slams for th next five years--Shapo.

 

[Sudacafan]

I think he’ll be on top for another 2 years at least, but no one knows

Who knows?

 

[Federev]

Who knows?

No one.

I shouldn’t have even guessed.

My parents tried to warn me to use my head - or not to use my head - I can’t remember.

But obviously I didn’t listen to them no matter what they said.

And now look.

 

[Midaso240]

I haven't given up on him, and I doubt they have either. He's just levelled off a bit after the highs of Wimbledon. He's not my pick in Melbourne, but it wouldn't surprise me that much if he won. Would surprise me much less than any other player bar Novak of course...

 

[Phoenix*]

That's good. He plays better as an underdog.

 

[ALCARAZWON]

Dumb "experts" got tricked into thinking Carlos was healthy in the 2nd half of 2023.
They are too lazy to do research, especially the McEnroe family, very lazy people.
Hasn't even reached his prime yet, and already US Open Champ and Defending Wimbledon Champ.

 

[Service Ace]

They must be trolling us to be picking Bo3 specialist Jannick Sinner to win a slam.

 

[NeutralFan]

Carlos is winning a slam this year at the very least.

If he's healthy he will win one slam if Sinner allows him to win

 

[NeutralFan]

Jokes aside being favourite puts pressure on him so it's a good thing and he can freely play like he did in Wimbledon.

 

[beautyistruth!!]

That's good. He plays better as an underdog.

Yes indeed it's much better for Carlos to be under the radar as the underdog, instead of being expected to win 23 majors in a row.

 

[beautyistruth!!]

If he's healthy he will win one slam if Sinner allows him to win

Sinner is still Gasquet Shapo and Tiafoe in grand slams. That next step is the hardest of his career. Lot's of players couldn't take that next step. Sinner has a lot to prove yet.

 

[I Am Finnish]

The Sinner hype is out of control

Right!!!

 

[beautyistruth!!]

The Sinner hype is out of control

Not quite as out of control as the Carlos hype was after Wimbledon last year. They were saying Carlos was already better than Novak and he was going to break his records lol They are holding back a lil on Sinner, so far )

 

[NeutralFan]

Sinner is still Gasquet Shapo and Tiafoe in grand slams. That next step is the hardest of his career. Lot's of players couldn't take that next step. Sinner has a lot to prove yet.

Son, you're in for a rude awakening lol. Doubt Sinner at your own peril lol

 

[Dwell]

The Sinner hype is out of control

 

[tex123]

Just a few months ago all the tennis media essentially annointed Carlos as the GOAT heir apparent, more complete game than Novak, Fed, Rafa, more upside, quicker, hasn't even nearly reached his full potential yet. Martina even said he was already better than Novak. Well, Carlos lost a few matches after winning Wimbledon and all the sudden he's a second rater, not one ESPN expert has picked Carlos to win the AO24. It's possible Carlos coasted thru fall indoor season after US Open and he can rampage again. It's possible he lost a fraction of desire after winning Wimbledon. It's possible all the impossible expectation for Carlos put too much pressure on him, having to win every tournament he entered. Carlos is far from finished IMO. Though Espn seems to think he's yesterday's news.

ESPN expert picks: Australian Open 2024 Shriver: Djokovic Stubbs: Djokovic Patrick McEnroe: Sinner Brad Gilbert: Djokovic Jarryd Barca: Sinner Bill Connelly: Djokovic Tom Hamilton: Djokovic D'Arcy Maine: Djokovic Jake Michaels: Djokovic Matt Walsh: Sinner

He did not just lose a few matches. He lost big. He had a short period last year when he destroyed the field. Everyone crowned him the future goat.
Djokovic gave him no 1 ranking by not competing after W. What does he do? He loses 8 consecutive tournaments including the world tour finals with inexplicable losses to journeymen.
Djokovic embarrassed him by ending the year as no 1. That lIterally destroyed whatever aura he had left at that point. Nobody thinks Carlos is unbeatable anymore. On HC, Sinner is better. His best bet is Clay and Grass.

That's not to say he is not a phenomenal player. He is. He will win multiple more slams. But he squandered his lead when it mattered the most. I don't think he will win much if Djokovic shows up this year. He is scarred, I'm afraid.

 

[Razer]

Alcaraz is the reigning wimbledon champion

Looks like people have a short memory ?

 

[Djokovic_is_the_best#1]

Carlos will win AO 24

Will be interesting to see how he adapts to the faster surface on rod laver.

 

[NeutralFan]

Alcaraz is the reigning wimbledon champion

Looks like people have a short memory ?

Sinner is the man in form and ready to beat the teeth like a drum

 

[Razer]

Sinner is the man in form and ready to beat the teeth like a drum

yes I hope Sinner, Teeth, Djokovic all reach the SF.

Will be fun.

 

[Rozroz]

not sure of his level atm.. seems like he lost some of his star power.

 

[MeatTornado]

You can still believe in him as the heir apparent and next ATG player without picking him to win every single event.

So far he's won 1 major per season the last 2 years. That doesn't mean he has to win 3 or 4 every year now. He's never done anything in Australia and didn't have a great end to his 2023 season, so he still has something to prove right now before we just assume he should win.

 

[fedfan24]

Djokovic is 90% favourite at least. Sinner has a very small chance of beating him here. Most likely loses in 4 sets with 2 being competitive.

 

[StrongRule]

You can still believe in him as the heir apparent and next ATG player without picking him to win every single event.

So far he's won 1 major per season the last 2 years. That doesn't mean he has to win 3 or 4 every year now. He's never done anything in Australia and didn't have a great end to his 2023 season, so he still has something to prove right now before we just assume he should win.

The truth is that everyone knows a 36 years old Djokovic is a way too tough opponent for him. All of the "future ATGs" are waiting for him to retire.

 

[ghostofMecir]

Just a few months ago all the tennis media essentially annointed Carlos as the GOAT heir apparent, more complete game than Novak, Fed, Rafa, more upside, quicker, hasn't even nearly reached his full potential yet. Martina even said he was already better than Novak. Well, Carlos lost a few matches after winning Wimbledon and all the sudden he's a second rater, not one ESPN expert has picked Carlos to win the AO24.

This AO will tell us a great about his trajectory and whether or not the summer/fall of 2023 was just a little slump. It’s not really a surprise that people have cooled on him because historically speaking, a young #1 who has just dethroned an older ATG at a slam final usually goes on to take a stranglehold over the game for a while. What did Carlitos do? He went 18-8, did not win another title, lost to Djokovic twice (once badly), gotten beaten rather easily by Medvedev in a slam, looked lost vs. Sinner, the other young challenger. Though he looked mediocre even before the Djoko match in Cincy, a win in that match could have propelled him, but he lost confidence even more after that match.

Over this span of 26 matches, he had a relatively pedestrian 1.17 dominance ratio, which would be good for someone aspiring to be a top 8 player, not for a new ATG dominant player; he had a relatively weak 83.6% hold %, and an uninspiring 52.1% of total points won. Compare that to how he did before that:

A win at this AO brings him right back to where he was after Wimbledon most likely.

 

[tex123]

Alcaraz is the reigning wimbledon champion

Looks like people have a short memory ?

He's also the reigning '8 tournament consecutive losses' and ' No 1 player with body cramp' champion. We have a pretty sharp memory.

I do like him though. I want him to win.

 

[Vincent-C]

Djokovic is 90% favourite at least. Sinner has a very small chance of beating him here. Most likely loses in 4 sets with 2 being competitive.

Ahh, Memory Lane!

 

[CHillTennis]

Just a few months ago all the tennis media essentially annointed Carlos as the GOAT heir apparent, more complete game than Novak, Fed, Rafa, more upside, quicker, hasn't even nearly reached his full potential yet. Martina even said he was already better than Novak. Well, Carlos lost a few matches after winning Wimbledon and all the sudden he's a second rater, not one ESPN expert has picked Carlos to win the AO24. It's possible Carlos coasted thru fall indoor season after US Open and he can rampage again. It's possible he lost a fraction of desire after winning Wimbledon. It's possible all the impossible expectation for Carlos put too much pressure on him, having to win every tournament he entered. Carlos is far from finished IMO. Though Espn seems to think he's yesterday's news.

ESPN expert picks: Australian Open 2024 Shriver: Djokovic Stubbs: Djokovic Patrick McEnroe: Sinner Brad Gilbert: Djokovic Jarryd Barca: Sinner Bill Connelly: Djokovic Tom Hamilton: Djokovic D'Arcy Maine: Djokovic Jake Michaels: Djokovic Matt Walsh: Sinner

They're job is to hype the young players. Regardless of whether or not it's warranted.

 

[Vincent-C]

This AO will tell us a great about his trajectory and whether or not the summer/fall of 2023 was just a little slump. It’s not really a surprise that people have cooled on him because historically speaking, a young #1 who has just dethroned an older ATG at a slam final usually goes on to take a stranglehold over the game for a while. What did Carlitos do? He went 18-8, did not win another title, lost to Djokovic twice (once badly), gotten beaten rather easily by Medvedev in a slam, looked lost vs. Sinner, the other young challenger. Though he looked mediocre even before the Djoko match in Cincy, a win in that match could have propelled him, but he lost confidence even more after that match.

Over this span of 26 matches, he had a relatively pedestrian 1.17 dominance ratio, which would be good for someone aspiring to be a top 8 player, not for a new ATG dominant player; he had a relatively weak 83.6% hold %, and an uninspiring 52.1% of total points won. Compare that to how he did before that:

A win at this AO brings him right back to where he was after Wimbledon most likely.

Thanks for this thorough post.

 

[Vincent-C]

They're job is to hype the young players. Regardless of whether or not it's warranted.

Why, then, were most of they're [sic] picks for >not-exactly-young Djokovic< ?

 

[CHillTennis]

Why, then, were most of they're [sic] picks for >not-exactly-young Djokovic< ?

Because Djokovic was the favorite going into the event.

Nobody knew that he was going to choke against Sinner.

 

[CHillTennis]

The Sinner hype is out of control

I blame it on the opioid crisis.