Federer - Djokovic at USO (3-3)... Whose career was hurt more?

[user]

2007 - Winning ugly. Federer was a big favorite despite losing a tight match to Djokovic for the first time ever a month earlier in Canada. Nevertheless, he wasn't really convincing here. It was Djokovic who choked away the first two sets, going 2/9 on BPs. Each and every one of those 7 missed opportunities was a Set point actually. Federer seals his legacy with 3rd 3-Slam season, Djokovic falls short in his 1st ever GS Final.

2008 - After a disappointing season (for his standards), Federer played the best match of the year in 2008 SF, overpowering Djokovic with great performance. Djokovic looked really frustrated, this one hurt much more that the previous final, as he couldn't back up his AO SF win earlier that year. Also, did himself a disservice after QF match denouncing a home player. A slam dunk for Federer in the final. Who'd believe this would be his last USO title to date?

2009 - After a bad season, Djokovic disappoints again in 2009 SF. A tweener late in the 3rd end to seal the deal. Had Federer won the final, maybe he'd achieve 4 in a row, but it was not meant to be. Don't think Djokovic would have had much of a chance vs Del Potro.

2010 - For the fourth straight year they met at USO, with Federer again as a heavy favorite. Djokovic just had the worst career season after 2006, coming into the match with no great expectations (he nearly lost 1st round match to Troicki of all people). Surprisingly, he was the better player for the most part of the match, but found himself on the edge of losing in the 5th. Saved 2 MPs with ultra-clutch play. Nadal was winning this one way or the other.

Spoiler

2011 - Deja vu. Could it be that he saved 2 MP again, this time on Federer's serve? Djokovic was just having the best season of his career, but it was Federer who stopped him at RG. Just when he thought he had this one in the bag also, Djokovic hits a career-defining shot that enables him to win his first USO title defeating Nadal in the final. Along with 2008 SF, 2011 SF was the best match of the rivalry at USO (and the most painful losses to Djokovic and Federer respectively). No Fedal at USO yet.
Fifth straight match + Fourth straight SF = Is the draw rigged?

2015 - Winning ugly - Chapter 2. Federer had a good tournament, not losing a set on his way to the final, getting broken only couple of times. Djokovic was shaky (lost Cincinnati final to Federer too), but somehow raised his level a bit for the final. Average serving from Djokovic + courageous play from Federer allowed him whopping 23 BPs, 19 of which he wasn't able to convert. Djokovic being clutch or Federer choking? Similar to 2007 match, when the underdog becomes nervous (and shows signs of fear of victory), the favorite smells blood and becomes more confident.

No Federer, and Djokovic wins 2008, and maybe 2007. 2009 probably not.
No Djokovic, and Federer wins 2015, and maybe 2011. 2010 surely not.

Federer, being in his prime when Djokovic started to break through, was able to successfully delay Djokovic's HC greatness, mostly at USO. Djokovic, being in his prime for the past few years, was able to successfully deny Federer from adding more titles and achieving USO GOAT status (still in the hands of Connors it seems).

 

[NoleFam]

About even I'd say. It's crazy to think they met 5 years in a row in the SF/F at the US Open.

 

[duaneeo]

Federer 5 USO titles; Djokovic 2 USO titles. The only stat that matters.

 

[Noelan]

About even I'd say. It's crazy to think they met 5 years in a row in the SF/F at the US Open.

From AO 08 to AO 011 (8 HC slams in a row they were on the same side of the draw).
Novak was almost always with Federer on HC slams and with Nadal at RG.

OP they are fairly even at USO, RG , as h2h shows, which leads us to Wimbledon

Srs, I can't wait for USO16

 

[NoleFam]

From AO 08 to AO 011 (8 HC slams in a row they were on the same side of the draw).
Novak was almost always with Federer on HC slams and with Nadal at RG.

OP they are fairly even at USO, RG , as h2h shows, which leads us to Wimbledon

Srs, I can't wait for USO16

Yea that is a bit weird if not suspect to say the least. The only time Federer and Nadal have been on the same side of the draw at the US Open was 2013. Whenever they were on opposite sides, Djokovic just happened to fall on Federer's side except 2007. Hmmm

 

[Noelan]

Yea that is a bit weird if not suspect to say the least. The only time Federer and Nadal have been on the same side of the draw at US Open was 2013. Whenever they were on opposite side, Djokovic just happened to fall on Federer's side except 2007. Hmmm

It's not nikeodd

 

[NoleFam]

It's not nikeodd

 

[Deleted member 716271]

Federer 5 USO titles; Djokovic 2 USO titles. The only stat that matters.

The question had absolutely nothing to do with that

 

[tennisaddict]

Great bunch of matches that shaped their rivalry.

Sampras > Fed > Connors at USO.

Connors won on USO clay as well, so that takes the sheen off

 

[mattosgrant]

Djokovic for me.

There is a very good chance had Federer won both the 2010 and 2011 semis with Djokovic, Nadal would simply be 1 closer to Federer in slam titles at the end of 2011 than he already was. In fact had he won the 2011 U.S Open, even if by beating Federer in the final and not his new nemesis Djokovic, I think the odds are good he closes out the 2012 Australian Open where he caved a bit at the end mostly for mental reasons IMO (FWIW I am not saying Nadal was unlucky to lose there, Djokovic should have closed it out in the 4th set already). It would give him the extra confidence he needed, and in fact if that happened be 2 closer to Federer at that point, and who knows what that could change down the line. Even if all else remains the same at just the U.S Open though, with no other indirect speculation, ift he likely winners emerge each time Fed has only 1 more title, and is actually the same number of slams ahead of Nadal he is now, no more, as he helped Nadal win the 2011 event.

So for the Fedster, Federer probably only gaining 1 title, at best 2. He almost definitely wasn't beating Nadal in 2010. 2011 was possible for Fed to win over Nadal, but Nadal would probably still have the edge. I guess he would have a better claim to U.S Open GOAT with even a 6th title though, so that is something. Actually combine with 9 finals, and it is a no brainer.

Djokovic though probably wins all of 2007, 2008 and 2009 without Federer. Yes I think he would even beat Del Potro in 2009 due to the match up, despite that I think Del Potro's level at the event was probably higher. At worst he probably loses only 1 of those (Roddick in 2007, Murray in 2008, Del Potro in 2009 all have a fighting chance, but I think he would be favored in each) and is at atleast 4 titles now, which would be huge for his overall record.

So my answer is Djokovic.

 

[user]

There is a very good chance had Federer won both the 2010 and 2011 semis with Djokovic, Nadal would simply be 1 closer to Federer in slam titles at the end of 2011 than he already was. In fact had he won the 2011 U.S Open, even if by beating Federer in the final and not his new nemesis Djokovic, I think the odds are good he closes out the 2012 Australian Open where he caved a bit at the end mostly for mental reasons IMO (FWIW I am not saying Nadal was unlucky to lose there, Djokovic should have closed it out in the 4th set already). It would give him the extra confidence he needed, and in fact if that happened be 2 closer to Federer at that point, and who knows what that could change down the line. Even if all else remains the same at just the U.S Open though, with no other indirect speculation, ift he likely winners emerge each time Fed has only 1 more title, and is actually the same number of slams ahead of Nadal he is now, no more, as he helped Nadal win the 2011 event.

So had Federer converted one of those 2 MPs in 2011, Nadal would be sitting on 16 Slams by now? Idk, but you can't rule out the possibility.

Djokovic though probably wins all of 2007, 2008 and 2009 without Federer. Yes I think he would even beat Del Potro in 2009 due to the match up, despite that I think Del Potro's level at the event was probably higher. At worst he probably loses only 1 of those (Roddick in 2007, Murray in 2008, Del Potro in 2009 all have a fighting chance, but I think he would be favored in each) and is at atleast 4 titles now, which would be huge for his overall record.

I'm certain that he'd win it in 2008.

2007 is tricky, because his road to the finals wasn't that tough (and he barely beat Stepanek in R2), although I don't think guys like Davydenko/Haas/Blake would be able to beat him. The only one other than Federer would be Roddick. He'd have a good chance. Either way, it was his first big match, the occasion got to him, no reason to think it would be a choke-free match had Roddick been on the other side of the net.

2009 - Match up or no match up, Djokovic wasn't great at all, and Del Potro crushed Nadal in the SF really bad. IMO, Djokovic wasn't winning that tournament with Del Potro in the final.

 

[Chadillac]

From AO 08 to AO 011 (8 HC slams in a row they were on the same side of the draw).
Novak was almost always with Federer on HC slams and with Nadal at RG.

OP they are fairly even at USO, RG , as h2h shows, which leads us to Wimbledon

Srs, I can't wait for USO16

Allowing tournament directors to choose where the 3 and 4 seed are placed is how they fix draws. Fed is always playing djok, like hewitt was always playing fed (after sueing the atp)

Meanwhile murray is making finals and #2 in the world with 2 wins over the big four in almost 4 years.

The sport has lost a lot of integrity since going to 32 seeds (with non static placement)

 

[mattosgrant]

So had Federer converted one of those 2 MPs in 2011, Nadal would be sitting on 16 Slams by now? Idk, but you can't rule out the possibility.

Yeah funny to think now.

2007 is tricky, because his road to the finals wasn't that tough (and he barely beat Stepanek in R2), although I don't think guys like Davydenko/Haas/Blake would be able to beat him. The only one other than Federer would be Roddick. He'd have a good chance. Either way, it was his first big match, the occasion got to him, no reason to think it would be a choke-free match had Roddick been on the other side of the net.

It would be a good match but Roddick had not yet started to get the better of Djokovic. Djokovic in 07-08 usually beat Roddick, and had beaten him in Canada in straights right before the U.S Open. Had this been 2009 I would back Roddick for sure. Djokovic didn't play his best in the final and showed some nerves, but the wind would be worse for Roddick as it would be hard to play the high risk game he would need to beat Djokovic. I also think it would be hard for Roddick to duplicate the quality he produced against Federer in the quarters, which still didn't get a set (neither did Djokovic but atleast he had a bunch of set points on his own serve in the 1st). IMO Djokovic was already both the slightly better player, and the better match player, and would win, but Roddick would have a chance.

2009 - Match up or no match up, Djokovic wasn't great at all, and Del Potro crushed Nadal in the SF really bad. IMO, Djokovic wasn't winning that tournament with Del Potro in the final.

Hmm I respectfully disagree. I thought Djokovic played better in his loss to Fed here than he did in 07 or 08 (or even his 2010 win). Federer was just in absolute top form and was much more confident than Djokovic, having a much better year. Federer served terribly vs Del Potro and still blew so many chance in the 2nd which could have meant a straight sets win. I would agree with you if I thought Djokovic was playing poorly, but I honestly don't think he was, and I think the match up issues would be too much for Del Potro (who btw didn't play well at all the first set and half of the final atleast).

 

[nolefam_2024]

What is this fixation with HURT? Players go their to win, 1 wins 127 loses.