Federer Nadal and Djokovic Win % per set

[nolefam_2024]

Took a couple of hours to get this data. I was interested in seeing how Big 3 played in all grand slam matches. This is what I found out.
Federer and Nadal start much stronger than Djokovic. Especially Nadal owing to his dominance at Roland Garros. They are winning higher number of sets in the first 3 sets.
Since big 3 are great front runners, most of the matches are over after first 3 sets. So here both Federer and Nadal are better than Djokovic on average.

Djokovic starts slower than both Federer and Nadal. He is prone to more losses in sets in first 3 sets. His level fluctuates more than both Nadal and Federer. He gets dragged to 4th and 5th set more often.
But by the time they reach fifth set, Djokovic separates himself from Federer and Nadal. The reason might be twofold.
First, since Djokovic gets dragged to fifth set vs lesser players, he has more opportunities to win in the fifth set.
Second, Djokovic has insane luck, mental ability, whatever you call it.

Adding the trending lines (stock guys would know it) to show where big 3 trend when they are prolonged in a match. Both Federer and Nadal trend down but Federer is trending lower than Nadal when stretched to the fifth set.

	Set 1	Set 2	Set 3	Set 4	Set 5
Federer Won	344	339	352	91	30
Federer Lost	85	90	74	46	17
Djokovic Won	305	298	307	106	34
Djokovic Lost	83	87	70	38	9
Nadal Won	284	297	286	82	23
Nadal Lost	73	59	62	32	12

 

[nolefam_2024]

Nadal with his incredible record at Roland Garros bullies his competition. He is clearly the best at winning sets early on. It's really hard to push him to set 4 among the big 3. The opponents lack the belief after losing first set proven by his insane set 2 win %.

 

[Federev]

Took a couple of hours to get this data. I was interested in seeing how Big 3 played in all grand slam matches. This is what I found out.
Federer and Nadal start much stronger than Djokovic. Especially Nadal owing to his dominance at Roland Garros. They are winning higher number of sets in the first 3 sets.
Since big 3 are great front runners, most of the matches are over after first 3 sets. So here both Federer and Nadal are better than Djokovic on average.

Djokovic starts slower than both Federer and Nadal. He is prone to more losses in sets in first 3 sets. His level fluctuates more than both Nadal and Federer. He gets dragged to 4th and 5th set more often.
But by the time they reach fifth set, Djokovic separates himself from Federer and Nadal. The reason might be twofold.
First, since Djokovic gets dragged to fifth set vs lesser players, he has more opportunities to win in the fifth set.
Second, Djokovic has insane luck, mental ability, whatever you call it.

Adding the trending lines (stock guys would know it) to show where big 3 trend when they are prolonged in a match. Both Federer and Nadal trend down but Nadal is trending lower than Federer when stretched to the fifth set.

	Set 1	Set 2	Set 3	Set 4	Set 5
Federer Won	344	339	352	91	30
Federer Lost	85	90	74	46	17
Djokovic Won	305	298	307	106	34
Djokovic Lost	83	87	70	38	9
Nadal Won	284	297	286	82	23
Nadal Lost	73	59	62	32	12

Cool and novel analysis.

Not that easy to do new stuff with the big 3, but you did.

 

[nolefam_2024]

Cool and novel analysis.

Not that easy to do new stuff with the big 3, but you did.

Would be fun to expand to all the atg. Just to see where everyone is. But too many variables in era.

 

[The_Order]

Interesting... shows how critical the third set is to all 3 of them.

I wonder what the win percentages are in their h2h when they've won the 3rd set...

 

[nolefam_2024]

Interesting... shows how critical the third set is to all 3 of them.

I wonder what the win percentages are in their h2h when they've won the 3rd set...

All epic matches that I remember between them, mostly 3rd set winner won the match.

 

[DSH]

Don't forget the magic potions in your analysis, OP.

 

[Deleted member 629564]

Pure numbers. Without a context it's meaningless. Greatness is not about numbers.

Have you considered measuring something really important in tennis? For example average noise levels at their matches? Fans' love is everything.

 

[The_Order]

All epic matches that I remember between them, mostly 3rd set winner won the match.

Did some research... here's the results:

Nadal v Djok (excluding 2 retirements from Novak)

RN - won 10 bo5 matches, 9 where he won the 3rd set = 90%
ND - won 7 bo5 matches, 5 where he won the 3rd set = 71.4%

Nadal v Fed

RN - won 12 bo5 matches, 10 where he won the 3rd set = 83.3%
RF - won 5 bo5 matches, 4 where he won the 3rd set = 80%

Djok v Fed

ND - won 11 bo5 matches, 9 where he won the 3rd set = 81.8%
RF - won 7 bo5 matches, 6 where he won the 3rd set = 85.7%

Trivia:

Every time Nadal or Djokovic lost the 3rd set against each other but still went on to win the match in bo5, they had won the first 2 sets:

Nadal - RG12
Djok - WIM11 & US11

Same hold true for Nadal v Federer... every time Nadal or Federer lost the 3rd set against each other but still went on to win the match in bo5, they had won the first 2 sets:

Nadal - RG11 & WIM08
Federer - WIM06

In fact, between the lot of them... the only match where the person who lost the 3rd set, yet still went on to win after splitting the first 2 sets, was when Djokovic beat Federer in US2010...

 

[nolefam_2024]

Did some research... here's the results:

Nadal v Djok (excluding 2 retirements from Novak)

RN - won 10 bo5 matches, 9 where he won the 3rd set = 90%
ND - won 7 bo5 matches, 5 where he won the 3rd set = 71.4%

Nadal v Fed

RN - won 12 bo5 matches, 10 where he won the 3rd set = 83.3%
RF - won 5 bo5 matches, 4 where he won the 3rd set = 80%

Djok v Fed

ND - won 11 bo5 matches, 9 where he won the 3rd set = 81.8%
RF - won 7 bo5 matches, 6 where he won the 3rd set = 85.7%

Trivia:

Every time Nadal or Djokovic lost the 3rd set against each other but still went on to win the match in bo5, they had won the first 2 sets:

Nadal - RG12
Djok - WIM11 & US11

Same hold true for Nadal v Federer... every time Nadal or Federer lost the 3rd set against each other but still went on to win the match in bo5, they had won the first 2 sets:

Nadal - RG11 & WIM08
Federer - WIM06

In fact, between the lot of them... the only match where the person who lost the 3rd set, yet still went on to win after splitting the first 2 sets, was when Djokovic beat Federer in US2010...

That's great. I think all 3 knew importance of not being down 2 sets to 1 vs each other. Most of the third sets have been huge battles and resulted in tiebreaks.

Off the top of my head,
Wimbledon 2008
Wimbledon 2018
RG21
USO 11 f
Wimbledon 2014
Wimbledon 2019 f
Australian open 2009

All of these matches had epic third set tie breaks.

 

[Phenomenal]

It's also strange that most often player who goes up 2-1 wins the match even if it goes to fifth set. Player who make comeback to win the fourth set mostly losses in fifth. Once i checked for big3. (AO2009,2012 RG2013 and so much more)

It shows us mostly in 1-1 sets who ever wins the third set is the better player and winning the match more often than not. I imagine very high %. While one of the big 3 member up 2-0 in sets thats another story Despite losing third set mostly finishes in 4.

Momentum thing about who makes comeback had advantage in fifth is probably overrated and misleading term atleast for BIG 3 matches. Result is the opposite.

 

[Cortana]

So Nadal/Federer usually need to win in 3 sets to have a chance of winning a match while for Djokovic it doesn‘t matter.

 

[mattennis]

And there are only two instances among The Big 3, of a player winning both the 4th and the 5th set.

Very interesting!

 

[Cortana]

And there are only two instances among The Big 3, of a player winning both the 4th and the 5th set.

Very interesting!

So winning after losing the first 2 sets? Which matches?

 

[mattennis]

So winning after losing the first 2 sets? Which matches?

The only two times (that I can remember) among The Big 3, of a player winning both the 4th and the 5th set, were:

Djokovic Federer US Open 2010 and 2011

 

[SonnyT]

So of all B3 intramural matches, only 2 were comebacks after 3 sets?

I had no idea that Nadal's 5th set % took a big nose dive like that!

 

[DSH]

So of all B3 intramural matches, only 2 were comebacks after 3 sets?

I had no idea that Nadal's 5th set % took a big nose dive like that!

Nadal doesn't have a reservoir of magic potions like Joker at his disposal.

 

[Pheasant]

Interesting concept here.

Piggybacking off of the OP's initial post, here are their winning percentages for each set:

Player……………..1st set …………..2nd set…………3rd set……………4th set…………5th set
Federer……………80.18%.............79.02%..............82.62%.................66.42%.............63.83%
Djokovic…………..78.61%............77.40%.............81.43%..................73.61%.............79.07%
Nadal………………79.55%.............83.42%.............82.18%.................71.93%.............65.71%

 

[abmk]

And there are only two instances among The Big 3, of a player winning both the 4th and the 5th set.

Very interesting!

in slams yes.
Fed was a point away from winning set 4 and set 5 in Wim 19 though.

in non-slams, Fed came back from 2 sets to love down vs Nadal in Miami 05 final
and again a point away from winning set 4 and set 5 in Rome 06 final

 

[SonnyT]

Nadal doesn't have a reservoir of magic potions like Joker at his disposal.

Djokovic ages like normal people do. Nadal with his bulging muscles does not!

 

[DSH]

Djokovic ages like normal people do. Nadal with his bulging muscles does not!

Joker's stamina is better than players 10, 15 years younger than him.

 

[WeekendTennisHack]

Who wins the most point while losing the match?

 

[SonnyT]

Joker's stamina is better than players 10, 15 years younger than him.

That's due to Djokovic's superior fitness and training.

What explains Nadal's superior muscles now compared to himself at 25 years old? Nothing at all, except some magic lotion! But his muscles are falling apart!

 

[SonnyT]

The longer the match goes, the better Djokovic plays. Mentally he's certainly the giant of tennis!

Nadal, hmm, is 3rd among the Big 3, not too bad!

 

[NoleFam]

Good work. This kind of explains why Fedal have won Slams without dropping a set and Djokovic hasn't, since he starts slower and has more lapses, and explains why Djokovic is better in Slams when it goes the distance. They are less likely than him to lose any of the first 3 sets, and he's less likely to lose the 4th and 5th sets.

 

[nolefam_2024]

So of all B3 intramural matches, only 2 were comebacks after 3 sets?

I had no idea that Nadal's 5th set % took a big nose dive like that!

Nadal won 2 slams recently winning in fifth set in the final. USOpen 2019 and ao 2022. Both times beating Medvedev.
Nadal also won many big matches like vs Thiem USOpen 2018 and Delpo USOpen 2018.

 

[nolefam_2024]

Good work. This kind of explains why Fedal have won Slams without dropping a set and Djokovic hasn't, since he starts slower and has more lapses, and explains why Djokovic is better in Slams when it goes the distance. They are less likely than him to lose any of the first 3 sets, and he's less likely to lose the 4th and 5th sets.

Which is a major reason why I don't think Djokovic can rival Borg on clay. Even despite Nadal he would get into these kinds of matches like rg2015 semis. Letting leads go.