underground
G.O.A.T.
Unlike last year I don’t think there will be too much a hangover from this loss, should be much easier to get over this one. You can tell from the embrace at the net.
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oldmanfan
Legend
Not just that. Fed's in much better form too. His ground strokes are much much better than it was at last year's IW18.
Look at it this way:
Fed could've easily lost to Coric last year in straights at IW18 SF (straights sets loss possible too in the IW18 finals, he was lucky to have MPs last year), BUT he could've easily won in straights at this IW19 F. Fed's level is better this year when IW completed.
Good for the rest of this year.
AceSalvo
Legend
who wants him to?
oldmanfan
Legend
Luiz Felipe
Rookie
What are the conditions in Miami? Slower than IW and high bounce ?
EloQuent
Legend
It's a new location so I don't think we know.
MeatTornado
Talk Tennis Guru
At the end of last year I was doubtful that he'd ever even win another Masters title.
This week I was starting to think I was an idiot, but I might still be right. I can't imagine him getting a better opportunity than this the rest of the season. Shame he just can't seem to close out big matches anymore.
This week I was starting to think I was an idiot, but I might still be right. I can't imagine him getting a better opportunity than this the rest of the season. Shame he just can't seem to close out big matches anymore.
MeatTornado
Talk Tennis Guru
That's his MO in most of his big losses the past year. Springs out of the gate looking like a routine win in the opening set and then completely disappears.
All his losses at the majors have been like that.
oldmanfan
Legend
It took only 20+ yrs, but the tour finally managed it!
Rogfan
Professional
Always feel devastated whenever Roger loses a big final. I know at this stage of his career everything is a bonus but a final loss is always hard to swallow I have to admit, just a very personal thing for me. It helps to know he is able to take this loss better than IW 18 and hopefully it won’t have last year’s sliding slope effect for him this year around.
Finger crossed he picks up some points at Miami! Surely he can’t do worse than last year??
Finger crossed he picks up some points at Miami! Surely he can’t do worse than last year??
oldmanfan
Legend
I hear ya. No confirmation yet, but I'm hearing the conditions, medium-slow CPI, might be slightly faster than IW19. It's a new venue, and I think Fedr has a history of doing well in new places/conditions (i.e. blue-clay Madrid win, Istanbul win, London-WTF, Shanghai-WTF win?, Stuttgart SF?, etc.).
I'm optimistic. I can see him winning IW19 and flopping at Miami19, but by him NOT winning IW19, he 'may' win Miami19 and net more points total bc of the hunger of losing IW19.
We'll see
.
Im(moral) Winner
G.O.A.T.
He lost the first time he played in London in 2009 and the first two times in YEC Shanghai 2002 & 2005I hear ya. No confirmation yet, but I'm hearing the conditions, medium-slow CPI, might be slightly faster than IW19. It's a new venue, and I think Fedr has a history of doing well in new places/conditions (i.e. blue-clay Madrid win, Istanbul win, London-WTF, Shanghai-WTF win?, Stuttgart SF?, etc.).
I'm optimistic. I can see him winning IW19 and flopping at Miami19, but by him NOT winning IW19, he 'may' win Miami19 and net more points total bc of the hunger of losing IW19.
We'll see
oldmanfan
Legend
Did he go far, or lost badly in those? Bc a QF-SF at Miami19 won't be a bad result. I want him to win of course
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D
Deleted member 763024
Guest
I’m not holding out hope that Roger will win Miami just because he couldn’t win IW.
He clenched title 100, is playing well enough to reach yet another IW finals, and if he can pick up some points from Miami those are great results for the Spring HC season. (The only real disappointment in 2019 being the early loss at AO)
Onwards and upwards to clay and grass for the European swing
He clenched title 100, is playing well enough to reach yet another IW finals, and if he can pick up some points from Miami those are great results for the Spring HC season. (The only real disappointment in 2019 being the early loss at AO)
Onwards and upwards to clay and grass for the European swing
underground
G.O.A.T.
Roger's path to the title in Miami:
R1 Bye
R2 Ebden/Qualifier
R3 Stan/Krajinovic/Herbert
R4 Medvedev/Schwartzman/Struff
QF Anderson/Khachanov/Dimitrov
SF Zverev/Tsitsipas/Cilic
F Djokovic
Draw is a fairly balanaced one imo, how far Roger can go will depend on how fresh he feels. On paper he can easily go all the way to the final but if he's feeling it from recent matches and a step slow he could bomb out against Stan as well. Miami is a bit of a free roll anyway since it's never been historically great for Fed, I guess we'll wait and see.
R1 Bye
R2 Ebden/Qualifier
R3 Stan/Krajinovic/Herbert
R4 Medvedev/Schwartzman/Struff
QF Anderson/Khachanov/Dimitrov
SF Zverev/Tsitsipas/Cilic
F Djokovic
Draw is a fairly balanaced one imo, how far Roger can go will depend on how fresh he feels. On paper he can easily go all the way to the final but if he's feeling it from recent matches and a step slow he could bomb out against Stan as well. Miami is a bit of a free roll anyway since it's never been historically great for Fed, I guess we'll wait and see.
Roddick85
Hall of Fame
The main obstacle between Fed and a deep run is probably his body at this point. I mean looking at the draw, besides a potential Djokovic clash in the final, there's not really anyone in there's that he needs to avoid like the plague or that a healthy/in-form Fed can't beat. If he's really feeling good physically then I think we can see him making the final. He can give it all cause he's got what...about a month before Madrid? More than enough to rest.
NBP
Hall of Fame
Seeing a lot of blind optimist here which is surprising. Fed has a deep routed issue now that will become incredibly hard to overcome at his age. The first top player he faces in an event, he loses. He is losing practically EVERY match against a top tenner that is tight. He’s so unclutch right now, and that’s not something that he can just flick the switch on again. Yeah at this point everything is a bonus, but the writing is on the wall. If you cannot win a Masters title on a hard court against Thiem of all players (credit is due, he played very well of course) then I have a tough time seeing where something will open up for him again this year.
The importance of this match I don’t think should be overlooked. A title removes all his shackles and would have allowed much more freedom for him. Now he’s still chasing a big win over a big player in a BIG tournament. Since winning Australia last year, his losses in big matches against top players and/or finals:
del Potro - Indian Wells Final (3rd set breaker)
Halle - Coric (set points first set)
Wimbledon - Anderson (10-8 in the fifth)
Paris - Djokovic (again 3rd set breaker)
AO - Tsitsipas (set points for 2-0 lead, 0/12BP)
Indian Wells - Thiem (7-5 in the third)
This is not even to mention the Kokkinakis and Millman monstrosities.
2017 gave us everything and none of us can complain at all. But a sense of realism is needed here.
The importance of this match I don’t think should be overlooked. A title removes all his shackles and would have allowed much more freedom for him. Now he’s still chasing a big win over a big player in a BIG tournament. Since winning Australia last year, his losses in big matches against top players and/or finals:
del Potro - Indian Wells Final (3rd set breaker)
Halle - Coric (set points first set)
Wimbledon - Anderson (10-8 in the fifth)
Paris - Djokovic (again 3rd set breaker)
AO - Tsitsipas (set points for 2-0 lead, 0/12BP)
Indian Wells - Thiem (7-5 in the third)
This is not even to mention the Kokkinakis and Millman monstrosities.
2017 gave us everything and none of us can complain at all. But a sense of realism is needed here.
TheIntrovert
Hall of Fame
Talk about overreacting. You talk about realism, but you need to lower your expectations from Fed. He’s no longer 25 years old. Surprisingly, losses become more and more frequent as he ages. Just enjoy watching him while he’s here and stop over analysing and being so pessimistic. You’ll regret it later on, trust me.
icedevil0289
G.O.A.T.
anyone know how the courts are playing in Miami?
Tennis_Hands
Banned
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oldmanfan
Legend
Well, well, well. That's good news if things pan out:
AceSalvo
Legend
Sure it’s good news, but 40 ain’t so far away.
oldmanfan
Legend
He didn't say he'll 'stop' at 40.
Of course stopping before or after 40 are both possible. But let's assume he'll stop at 40. I don't think he'll stop in the middle of that season, so that will be the end of the 2021 season. I can't complain if he stops playing after 2021, something I thought was possible when some were thinking he'd retire in 2019.
Tennis_Hands
Banned
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Gary Duane
G.O.A.T.
Here is what people don't see: the greatest players in the game win about 60% of all games on a surface they are strong on, and in fact this goes even higher, but not very much for a year. I'm talking about the great ones, like Sampras, Agassi, the big three, and at times even Murray. That's the bottom line.I keep hearing the same thing every time Federer steps on court these days: "he will break the shackles, if he wins this and that title". I believe this to be looking at the situation from the wrong angle. When he won in Australia in 2018 that was supposed to "break the shackles". We saw what transpired in IW after that. Then he was supposed to "break the shackles" when he won in Stuttgart on grass. We saw what happened in Halle and Wimbledon, then the same in Basel for the incoming indoor season. Same story, and most recently it was supposed to "free" him after he wins his 100th tournament.
The truth is that Federer cannot sustain his level as he used to and even when he is playing well he loses quite a bit until he reaches the top players in the later rounds. It has little to do with him not being clutch. All these players you mention were on fire in those matches, that is why they won them (mostly). Especially your example with the IW match against Thiem is indicative: most of Federer's chances to win it were in the second set, and they were to take the early lead. The third set Thiem was blowing Federer off the court, even if he created some chances there.
That is the thing, if the match is tight the opponent also is playing very well. It is not like he lost matches against players that were playing like crap.
The optimism is related to the fact that Federer can play great in any given match, and until that stops being the case he will have chances. Also, I don't think that anyone is expecting much from him at this point. It is mostly well wishes that he plays well, and if it happens he can/will win.
That's where Fed was in his peak years. Guys still win majors with things like 58%, but even 56% gets really hard and does not happen so much. Wawrinka's results I cannot explain, but he is a total outlier, and I think now those days are probably over.
That means that Fed, winning around 20% of return games, would have to win 100% of his service games to be back up to peak level, which of course is impossible.
Here are the years in which he won more than 60% of games on hard, the best year on top and coming down:
2006
2005
2015
2004
2011
2007
Fans will not like seeing whee 2015 is. But this suggests that his playing level was back up and he had the huge misfortune of running into a peaking Djokovic,
Those top three years are also the only years when he was winning more than 30% of his return games.
Right now he is winning 21% of his return games, although it may be a bit better than that because he was at something like 14% before Dubai. But he's still low, lower than he's been since around 2000.
EloQuent
Legend
3 of which were Masters. Sigh. Could have been at 30.
oldmanfan
Legend
He will turn 39 and start 40 around Tokyo 2020, so that is nothing new (that info was already confirmed when he signed the extension of his contract with the tournament in Basel).
For now that tournament (Basel in 2020) remains the main candidate for his farewell tournament, if he really wants to hang it soon.
Hey! That's cheating!
Yes, it's his '40th' year in 2020, but he'll still be 39 at the end of 2020. Fed turns 40 in August of 2021. Don't deprive us of a full tennis season (or more ;P).
Tennis_Hands
Banned
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AceSalvo
Legend
Tennis_Hands
Banned
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Rogfan
Professional
I keep hearing the same thing every time Federer steps on court these days: "he will break the shackles, if he wins this and that title". I believe this to be looking at the situation from the wrong angle. When he won in Australia in 2018 that was supposed to "break the shackles". We saw what transpired in IW after that. Then he was supposed to "break the shackles" when he won in Stuttgart on grass. We saw what happened in Halle and Wimbledon, then the same in Basel for the incoming indoor season. Same story, and most recently it was supposed to "free" him after he wins his 100th tournament.
The truth is that Federer cannot sustain his level as he used to and even when he is playing well he loses quite a bit until he reaches the top players in the later rounds. It has little to do with him not being clutch. All these players you mention were on fire in those matches, that is why they won them (mostly). Especially your example with the IW match against Thiem is indicative: most of Federer's chances to win it were in the second set, and they were to take the early lead. The third set Thiem was blowing Federer off the court, even if he created some chances there.
That is the thing, if the match is tight the opponent also is playing very well. It is not like he lost matches against players that were playing like crap.
The optimism is related to the fact that Federer can play great in any given match, and until that stops being the case he will have chances. Also, I don't think that anyone is expecting much from him at this point. It is mostly well wishes that he plays well, and if it happens he can/will win.
Really fair comments. Isn’t it annoying that this Fed who’s a shadow of what he used to be, is still making finals in big tournaments again and again, only to realise he can’t sustain his top level to win the biggest match? Same story in 2014-2016 when he was beaten by Djoker so many times. Boy isn’t this part of why we love him. Imagine being a fan of Nadal - they don’t even know if he can complete a HC tourney when he enters one!
oldmanfan
Legend
To me statistics are only guidelines, when I want to explain to myself something that I noticed while watching tennis. Otherwise they are pretty boring to me and I don't actually pay that much attention, as they are time consuming and not a substitute of watching and thinking for myself, and because they mask more than they reveal.
With that caveat in place I generally agree with your sentiment that Federer's returning game is getting weak, and that prevents him from winning more. His serve is not a guarantee any more, because it gets erratic at the wrong times, and also because when your opponents know what your game is, it is much easier to counter the danger, if it comes from one place only/mostly. It frees them from the mental pressure.
Surfaces do matter too. On grass, where a premium is placed in the serve the whole statistics business might just as easily go out of the window, if the player is holding all the time and can win TBs, and for a player like Federer that is all that matters. It is pretty evident that his overall game is declining pretty hard, so the expectations really shouldn't be of him necessarily winning just because the surface suits him. The opposite, however, is very true: this last week Federer three times made remarks about the extremely slow conditions in IW, something I don't remember him doing with such regularity in recent times. He is in a good place right now, so he reached the final and played well there, so that might have tricked most people into believing that it will be easy for him to win it, since his main rivals are out and it is a HC. A notion against which I warned in the match thread even after he won the first set.
We will see in the coming months what we can expect long term, as I don't think that he will decline much more from his current state till he hangs up his racquet, unless he doesn't decide to play really till he is 45 or something.
Well said.
Fed's level now is pretty good. I'm especially happy to see that he's out of the slump of mid-2018. And I'm not delusional enough to think he'll dominate the tour. But the scary thing is, this newer 'normal level' of Fed is still good enough to win most of the time. I mean, it took peak-Thiem to barely edge Fed, a match Thiem could've easily lost in straights.
And if a few things fall Fed's way? A slam is possible. Ditto for masters, and smaller titles.
Fed's average level is still hard to beat.
It's good to be a Fedfan.
oldmanfan
Legend
Fed's practice in about 30 minutes. Wonder if there is a stream...
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Tennis_Hands
Banned
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oldmanfan
Legend
D
Deleted member 763024
Guest
Really good comments @Tennis_Hands !
I have some thoughts about evaluating Roger’s career as well but I’m afraid it’ll
Have tonwait until later as I’m typing on my phone and it’s not pretty.
I have some thoughts about evaluating Roger’s career as well but I’m afraid it’ll
Have tonwait until later as I’m typing on my phone and it’s not pretty.
Rogfan
Professional
Well said.
Fed's level now is pretty good. I'm especially happy to see that he's out of the slump of mid-2018. And I'm not delusional enough to think he'll dominate the tour. But the scary thing is, this newer 'normal level' of Fed is still good enough to win most of the time. I mean, it took peak-Thiem to barely edge Fed, a match Thiem could've easily lost in straights.
And if a few things fall Fed's way? A slam is possible. Ditto for masters, and smaller titles.
Fed's average level is still hard to beat.
It's good to be a Fedfan.
What a great post to read after a long, hard working day!
oldmanfan
Legend
Thanks!
I feel that it's important to look at the big picture. I mean, at IW19, Fed actually had chances (read BPs) to win the whole tournament in straights, dropping no sets. He still was within 2pts of winning it in the 3rd set against Thiem. Novak lost in 3R, and Rafa refused to step on court against The Oldman, yet so many Fedfans are worried? IW is a 96* players field (but 7 rounds for non-32 seeds), and Fed was in the last match, and almost won the whole tournament in straights. Sure, winning it would've been amazing, but it's not like he stood no chance.
Fed took it well. He was already practicing on Monday, the day after. See my post above with clips.
We Fedfans are in a good place, still.
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ForehandRF
Legend
Thanks!
I feel that it's important to look at the big picture. I mean, at IW19, Fed actually had chances (read BPs) to win the whole tournament in straights, dropping no sets. He still was within 2pts of winning it in the 3rd set against Thiem. Novak lost in 3R, and Rafa refused to step on court against The Oldman, yet so many Fedfans are worried? IW is a 96* players field (but 7 rounds for non-32 seeds), and Fed was in the last match, and almost won the whole tournament in straights. Sure, winning it would've been amazing, but it's not like he stood no chance.
Fed took it well. He was already practicing on Monday, the day after. See my post above with clips.
We Fedfans are in a good place, still.
You're right but at the same time is not fun seeing him reaching finals and losing them again and again
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NBP
Hall of Fame
You make some great points as always chief. I do agree and I've always said, everything from winning the AO two years ago onwards was a bonus. I even remember telling my friend back in 2015 that all I wanted was #18, and then he could lose the first round of every event after and I'd be fineI keep hearing the same thing every time Federer steps on court these days: "he will break the shackles, if he wins this and that title". I believe this to be looking at the situation from the wrong angle. When he won in Australia in 2018 that was supposed to "break the shackles". We saw what transpired in IW after that. Then he was supposed to "break the shackles" when he won in Stuttgart on grass. We saw what happened in Halle and Wimbledon, then the same in Basel for the incoming indoor season. Same story, and most recently it was supposed to "free" him after he wins his 100th tournament.
The truth is that Federer cannot sustain his level as he used to and even when he is playing well he loses quite a bit until he reaches the top players in the later rounds. It has little to do with him not being clutch. All these players you mention were on fire in those matches, that is why they won them (mostly). Especially your example with the IW match against Thiem is indicative: most of Federer's chances to win it were in the second set, and they were to take the early lead. The third set Thiem was blowing Federer off the court, even if he created some chances there.
That is the thing, if the match is tight the opponent also is playing very well. It is not like he lost matches against players that were playing like crap.
The optimism is related to the fact that Federer can play great in any given match, and until that stops being the case he will have chances. Also, I don't think that anyone is expecting much from him at this point. It is mostly well wishes that he plays well, and if it happens he can/will win.
. He's given us much, much more than just #18. And you're correct in saying how well del Potro and Thiem played. Thiem absoloutely peaked in that third set and fully deserved it, no question. But we cannot be naive, whether Fed is 37 or 27. You play 3 Masters finals, a Grand Slam QF and two 4R in the last 15 months. In 2 of those finals, you're two points away at least from winning, you lose both. In the Grand Slam QF, you're 6-2 7-6 5-4 30-40, and you lose. In both Grand Slam fourth rounds you're a set and set points up, again, you lose both. No Fed fan in this world can use the age excuse or he's already won a lot line to justify these loses, becasue they are still frustrating. The fact he turns 38 this year and may very well be a top 3 player by then is beyond belief, that in itself is an incredible acheivement. Being #3 at 37, winning slams at 36, nobody in their right mind believed this would happen.But either way, we're all Fed fans becasue we enjoy his game, not just because of his success. That's the bottom line we can all agree on, otherwise from 2013-16 we'd have all left this forum
. But I don't think it's bad to hope for another big win from him.
oldmanfan
Legend
You're right but at the same time is not fun seeing him reaching finals and losing them again and again
Masters, yes, he lost Cinci18 (terrible form anyways, shouldn't even be in that finals) and IW19. He won Basel18 and Dubai19. All in all, could be better and could be worse. He's still winning finals, just not all, which is normal.
You make some great points as always chief. I do agree and I've always said, everything from winning the AO two years ago onwards was a bonus. I even remember telling my friend back in 2015 that all I wanted was #18, and then he could lose the first round of every event after and I'd be fine
But either way, we're all Fed fans becasue we enjoy his game, not just because of his success. That's the bottom line we can all agree on, otherwise from 2013-16 we'd have all left this forum
Certainly! It's ok to hope for another big win. I think he has 1-2 slams left in him. I'm optimistic about that. He also has masters in him still. He played like crap at Cinci18 and only lost 4 and 4 to Djokr in the finals, ya know?
He's in better form now than at IW18/Cinci18.
That's good news.
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ForehandRF
Legend
Masters, yes, he lost Cinci18 (terrible form anyways, shouldn't even be in that finals) and IW19. He won Basel18 and Dubai19. All in all, could be better and could be worse. He's still winning finals, just not all, which is normal.
Yes, I was referring to the masters finals he lost.He could have won both IW 2018 & 2019 and it's a pity that he didn't.6 or 7 titles there would have been awesome for his resume but at the end of the day it's good that he is playing decent tennis at this stage of his career
BeatlesFan
Bionic Poster
He won a final just three weeks ago.You're right but at the same time is not fun seeing him reaching finals and losing them again and again
federrero
New User
How he lost IW18 and IW19 is also encouraging. Both finals were very competitive and several points at the very end made a difference.
icedevil0289
G.O.A.T.
tbh sometimes I prefer straight out blow outs as opposed to him losing after having a chances. I know some people prefer it the other way but I cannot handle brainfart losses, where he has chances but just can't seem to do anything and I know thiem was playing well on sunday, but there were a couple times I was like wtf are you doing.
don't even get me started on losing matches after having mps
don't even get me started on losing matches after having mps
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