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TheIntrovert
Hall of Fame
Just watch this and I find it interesting what the reporter said Rafa said. Love the subtle fighting talk between both these guys today, first by roger in his on court interview, and then Rafa by that reply
icedevil0289
G.O.A.T.
lmao at he could be sick, there could be ten rain delays, lmao the mountain he would need to climb to get through rafa.
ghostofMecir
Legend
SFs seem an impossible task, but a supreme underdog menatality might help. Last time we saw that at a slam was entering the 2011 SFs at RG against Djokovic. Obviously the mechanics of the match up are different and Federer is basically 38 years old, but I feel that some things might break his way. I expect him to lose, but I also think he thinks that some of the dynamics that have allowed him to win 5 straight vs. Nadal May translate to clay, especially if the ball isnt jumping up on him on his BH on a damp court.
1) Yes, it’s clay and not hard court, but there are reasons for why Federer has not only beaten Nadal 5 straight times, but dominated him, especially the last three matches.
Dominance ratio last 5 matches vs. Nadal
2.25, Shanghai
1.46, Miami
1.74, Indian Wells
1.15, Australian Open
1.19, Basel
In these 5 matches, Federer has served 70 games and lost serve just 5 times.
2) How has he done it?
A) The bigger racket has helped him keep rallies in neutral or plus situations in BH exchanges with Nadal, something that rarely happend with the smaller racket. Lots of articles written on this and can be seen even in just small highlight packages.
B) The mentality to stay on the baseline no matter what and take the BH early that has given him opportunities to attack in rallies, especially the CC BH taken early, CC FH reply, FH to the deuce court, approach NET combination
C) Attacking the Nadal FH given the chance. Djokovic showed the way to do this (obviously easier for him given his BH in rally dynamics), but Federer throughout his career has shied away from going after the Nadal FH and concentrated on breaking down the Nadal BH, thereby leaving so many opportunities on the table. In this 5 match win streak, he has gone after the Nadal FH when given the chance and has parlayed those exchanges into very positive results with either i) winners, ii) drawn errors, iii) oppoetunities to close at net, or iv) upper hand in rallies.
D) Consistently attacking the Nadal BH return, especially on the deuce court. Go see how many times he’s taken advantage of Nadal’s weakest return and Nadal’s return position by using serve and volley.
Mission impossible, but I think that HE THINKS he has a chance and he does. Whatever happens, a soon to be 38 year old making this run and making it look easy just adds to his GOAT legacy.
1) Yes, it’s clay and not hard court, but there are reasons for why Federer has not only beaten Nadal 5 straight times, but dominated him, especially the last three matches.
Dominance ratio last 5 matches vs. Nadal
2.25, Shanghai
1.46, Miami
1.74, Indian Wells
1.15, Australian Open
1.19, Basel
In these 5 matches, Federer has served 70 games and lost serve just 5 times.
2) How has he done it?
A) The bigger racket has helped him keep rallies in neutral or plus situations in BH exchanges with Nadal, something that rarely happend with the smaller racket. Lots of articles written on this and can be seen even in just small highlight packages.
B) The mentality to stay on the baseline no matter what and take the BH early that has given him opportunities to attack in rallies, especially the CC BH taken early, CC FH reply, FH to the deuce court, approach NET combination
C) Attacking the Nadal FH given the chance. Djokovic showed the way to do this (obviously easier for him given his BH in rally dynamics), but Federer throughout his career has shied away from going after the Nadal FH and concentrated on breaking down the Nadal BH, thereby leaving so many opportunities on the table. In this 5 match win streak, he has gone after the Nadal FH when given the chance and has parlayed those exchanges into very positive results with either i) winners, ii) drawn errors, iii) oppoetunities to close at net, or iv) upper hand in rallies.
D) Consistently attacking the Nadal BH return, especially on the deuce court. Go see how many times he’s taken advantage of Nadal’s weakest return and Nadal’s return position by using serve and volley.
Mission impossible, but I think that HE THINKS he has a chance and he does. Whatever happens, a soon to be 38 year old making this run and making it look easy just adds to his GOAT legacy.
mightyjeditribble
Hall of Fame
Well we all heard before the Rome final how Djokovic is in Nadal's head and will never lose to him again.
Of course, I hope for Fed to do the seemingly impossible. I did not think he would win in 2017 AO either in fact.
But in some sense the best I can see happening is that Roger comes out blasting, takes the first set, gives us all hope ... and then loses in 4 like in 2006.
But whatever happens, him making the semis is tremendous on its own. Oldest RG semifinalist since Pancho Gonzalez in the first major of the open era!!!
(Sent from my mobile phone.)
D
Deleted member 763024
Guest
All this is great, but on clay it's simply next to impossible to blow Nadal off the court on clay - Soderling got hot one time.
Unless Roger can hit Kyrgios like first serve bombs and Del Po's forehands, it's not on his racquet offensively.
You have to be able to rally with the guy, play very good defense and be very opportunistic about hitting winners.
I think Roger has it in him to make things interesting, but for him to actually win, Roger needs to be on fire and Nadal should be having an off day (plus weather needs to cooperate. Heavy, damp, cold conditions will work against Roger big time)
icedevil0289
G.O.A.T.
Well we all heard before the Rome final how Djokovic is in Nadal's head and will never lose to him again.
Of course, I hope for Fed to do the seemingly impossible. I did not think he would win in 2017 AO either in fact.
But in some sense the best I can see happening is that Roger comes out blasting, takes the first set, gives us all hope ... and then loses in 4 like in 2006.
But whatever happens, him making the semis is tremendous on its own. Oldest RG semifinalist since Pancho Gonzalez in the first major of the open era!!!
(Sent from my mobile phone.)
its nadal on clay, idk how anyone is saying with a serious face nadal will never beat Djokovic on any surface.
I'm with you, I hpe he just comes up guns blazing, which he usually has against nadal in the first set. It's after that everything goes down hill. Remember 2011 when he was up 5-2 and I think had sps...yeah me neither since rg 2011 ended after the semis, I erased the rest from my head.
TheMaestro1990
Hall of Fame
BeatlesFan
Bionic Poster
This is the first year Mirka has not been with Fed at a major since 2001. He discussed this with the Swiss press today:
"I would have never have thought to be alone at a slam, so this is the first time it's happened. Mirka and children traveled a lot with me over the last year. We were in New York, Chicago, Tokyo and Shanghai. Then it went like this at the beginning of this year: we were in Dubai, Australia, Indian Wells and Miami. So we decided some time ago that children should be at home for a longer time. It's better for their schedule. But at Wimbledon they will definitely come back. Mirka was in Paris in the beginning, but then she fly back to Switzerland, She may come back later, but we do not know yet. We are thinking day by day."
"I would have never have thought to be alone at a slam, so this is the first time it's happened. Mirka and children traveled a lot with me over the last year. We were in New York, Chicago, Tokyo and Shanghai. Then it went like this at the beginning of this year: we were in Dubai, Australia, Indian Wells and Miami. So we decided some time ago that children should be at home for a longer time. It's better for their schedule. But at Wimbledon they will definitely come back. Mirka was in Paris in the beginning, but then she fly back to Switzerland, She may come back later, but we do not know yet. We are thinking day by day."
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MeatTornado
Talk Tennis Guru
oldmanfan
Legend
Otacon
Hall of Fame
Roger knows exactly how he should play Rafa. His biggest challenge is the execution of his game plan.
MeatTornado
Talk Tennis Guru
Doesn't that apply to everybody, in a way?
Even the young guys on tour who never played him have seen more than enough game film of him just by watching TV over the years to know all his strengths and weaknesses. Capitalizing is the impossible part.
Otacon
Hall of Fame
To a certain extent yes. But each matchup is different. Fed and Djoker don't apply the same tactics against him even though the strategies are similar.
ghostofMecir
Legend
This is true, especially with the bigger racket.
1) Taking the return early on the BH on both the deuce court and AD court to try and not give Nadal a huge advantage with his (Nadal’s) first FH. He really did well with this in his last 5 matches, but even before that.
2) Take the BH early and stay neutral to slightly minus or slightly plus in rallies involving his BH. This was WAY improved in the last 4 matches,
3) Take advantage of Rafa’s weakest return (BH on deuce court) and serve sns villey when given the chance.
4) Attack the Nadal FH when given the chance instead of shying away from it and working the Nadal Bh. Djoko has done this more than anyone and even though the dynamics are different since Federer’s BH can’t hold up the same way as Djokovic’s, he’s had opportunities and instead of attacking and forcing the issue, has gone back to tryinans breakin*ndown the Nadal BH that usually doesn’t break. These last four matches, he’s gone after that FH.
Federer’s biggest problem is HIS own movement to his own FH which is even worse on clay. Stan had a lot of success with his CC FH today, much more than he does on other surfaces against Federer. Nadal with a good day with the CC BH and OK day with the FH DTL will make Federer’s day absolutely miserable. IF, however, Nadal falters on those just a little, Federer will have his chances given everything else stays the same. If he capitalizes early, he can put the memories of those last five wins fresh in Nadal’s mind.
Otacon
Hall of Fame
That's very interesting, thanks.
I've just rewatched their most recent match here in 2011. Roger played really well and managed to break his serve countless times. The first 3 sets were extremely competitive and Fed even with his old racquet troubled Nadal a lot. But the big difference between the two players was clearly mental because Roger collapsed at the end of set 1 & 2. I really believe he should have won that final in straights.
Today, Roger has accumulated enough confidence against his arch-rival and I really hope he'll never stop believing until the last point of the match.
FatFedererFanTurnsSlim
Semi-Pro
I'll be
Happy if Fedr wins 1 set
Ecstatic if Fedr wins 2 sets
Dead if Fedr wins 3 sets
Happy if Fedr wins 1 set
Ecstatic if Fedr wins 2 sets
Dead if Fedr wins 3 sets
Lleytonstation
Talk Tennis Guru
Little Giants: all it takes is 1 in 100. Go Fed.
FatFedererFanTurnsSlim
Semi-Pro
Brilliant post mate. Hope it's a great match on Friday & not an anti-climax like WIM 15.
Badabing888
Hall of Fame
Worrying thing for me is Roger getting those breakpoint opportunities but not taking them. How many did he have v Stan yesterday like 17/18 and he took 2 of them. This is the biggest weakness in his game and if he puts himself in a similar position v Rafa and can’t take these break points that is what is going to get in his head.
FatFedererFanTurnsSlim
Semi-Pro
icedevil0289
G.O.A.T.
lmao he watched the way match point went with tsitsipas and he was like nope, not today
TheMaestro1990
Hall of Fame
Federer vs Nadal ● 10 Minutes of World Class Tennis on Clay ♦ Fedal #39
Poisoned Slice
Bionic Poster
BeatlesFan
Bionic Poster
I too watched the 2011 final again last week. The biggest physical difference is Roger's movement, especially to his FH, has diminished considerably. But in fairness, Nadal's speed is also way off what it was in 2011, especially to his FH. If you watch the last 5 games of the 2017 AO, Fed got many cheap points just hitting hard to Rafa's FH, Nadal had no answers. But that's not on clay.
As you said, Fed choked away the 2011 match and was clearly nervous. He had that haunted look throughout. Once he missed the drop shot when serving for the first set, he just didn't believe and it clearly showed.
If I was Roger, I would be paying Verdasco $100,000 to just hit endless lefty groundstrokes high to his BH during practice sessions. 48 hours of Verdasco would be worth its weight in gold to prepare for Rafa.
Otacon
Hall of Fame
He was up 5-2 in the first set playing near-perfect tennis. Then after missing that drop shot, he lost the next 6 or 7 games. It's just not normal for a player of his caliber to collapse like that.
That's why the famous 5th set in Australia is truly extraordinary because the Roger we knew should have lost 6-1.
TearTheRoofOff
G.O.A.T.
Given their history, that AO2017 5th set is truly remarkable, and really did slay a lot of demons.
Oh and didn't Nadal take an extremely annoying MTO in that first set at FO2011?
ghostofMecir
Legend
Watching this brings into sharp relief just how many points Federer lost from winning/plus situations in rallies and so many of them at crucial junctures (e.g., 30-30, 30-15, 15-30, 40-30, deuce, AD, break point up, break point down at ends of sets). Just a huge mental scarring on this surface in otherwise tightly contested matches that had an inevitability to them after that 2005 RG match he lost with his FH errors.
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BeatlesFan
Bionic Poster
Ah, but consider the missed MP's in Rome 2006, his collapse in the 2006 FO final (won the first set 6-1 against Rafa), the choke throughout the entire 2009 AO final, the two USO semis where he collapsed against Novak with MP's.... we could go on and on. More recently, we have the Del Po Indian Wells match, missing a sitter FH on MP and the bizarre collapse against Goffin in the 2017 YEC.
He has the most talent of anyone who ever played, but mentally has not been the strongest in many situations. We just have to take the "bad" with the glorious good. 2017 erased a lot of the demons. Had Roger been like Pete in mental strength he'd literally have 29 majors, possibly more.
Poisoned Slice
Bionic Poster
The nervous tension is flowing through my body now. hahaha Only thing that compares to this is when I enter the Tokyo Dome, ya know. Very excited.
Otacon
Hall of Fame
I agree on everything ... but Sampras never faced anyone near the level of Nadal or Djokovic. If there's a weak era, it's certainly the 90s. Hence why WTA was more popular than ATP at that time.
oldmanfan
Legend
This is easy to say, but like you said, gotta take the bad with the good. Had Fedr got Sampras' supposed mental strength, he'd probably be retired around 2011, maybe after the 2010 AO win even. There's a reason Sampras retired so early, and there's also a reason why Fedr didn't. Maybe Fedr simply can't have Sampras' mentality bc Fedr simply cares so much about everything tennis which at times leads to 'chokes' or missed opportunities. Fedr just cares so much, about so many things, and he just loves being out there with a racquet, hitting a fuzzy, yellow ball. And we're quite lucky that he does. It has lead to him still playing and shattering all sorts of longevity records.
Taking the good with the bad is a good thing... bc Fedr.
BeatlesFan
Bionic Poster
Look who is practicing their volleys in Paris...
Ann
Hall of Fame
Methuselah is thinking outside the box, the old dude REALLY wants to win.
oldmanfan
Legend
Was that pre-Stanimal QF?
Anyways, I was just thinking... After the hand-ailment setback of grass-2018, seeing how Fedr has played 2019 so far, including Madrid/Rome, now thru RG 1R-SF, especially against Stanimal, I think he can still be super competitive for another 2-5 yrs. Only health can stop him imo, bc his love for tennis is undiminished (he's stated as much, a few days ago in an interview). Before clay, many said there are like 20-30 players who could easily beat him. I didn't agree and thought only about 5-6 players I would rate as a favorite over him (Nadl, Djokr, 50-50 vs. Thiem, red-hot Stanimal/Z). I'm happy it's turned out that way as he's in the last 4, dropping one set only bc he took 2/18 BPs.
It's nuts, but he's played 30 matches so far, and the only really bad match (vs. Albot), he still found a way to win. The 3 losses he had, he could've (maybe even should've) won them all.
Fingers crossed, but the tweet below showed W/L yrs of his first 30 matches. 2019 matches up with 3 other years, all slam years... dare we dream?
oldmanfan
Legend
Panther at net bc that was a rocket from Stan...
BeatlesFan
Bionic Poster
Another interesting Fed quote from yesterday, to the Swiss press:
"How Rafa dominates on clay from the baseline is unbelievable. But I also came back on clay to play against him. I didn't want to avoid a duel with Nadal at all. I have nothing to lose and I'll try everything."
https://www.bazonline.ch/sport/tennis/federer-ich-haette-auch-frustriert-sein-koennen/story/17774058
"How Rafa dominates on clay from the baseline is unbelievable. But I also came back on clay to play against him. I didn't want to avoid a duel with Nadal at all. I have nothing to lose and I'll try everything."
https://www.bazonline.ch/sport/tennis/federer-ich-haette-auch-frustriert-sein-koennen/story/17774058
Lleytonstation
Talk Tennis Guru
That is why I am a Fed fan, because he loves the game. He plays because he has the passion and competitive drive to prove not only people wrong, but to prove to himself he can do it, and if he cant, he will be able to move on because it is the game he loves. Not the numbers.
But I do like the sound of 21
.
MeatTornado
Talk Tennis Guru
Fed needs to knock this off, because I'm actually starting to get my hopes up!
Lleytonstation
Talk Tennis Guru
Yeah, what is the deal here. Does he not realize what he is doing to us?
But honestly, this does feel different, he might not win, but I do think we will get a =competitive match in which our "hope" will destroy us in the end.
oldmanfan
Legend
That is one of Fedr's best traits; Not afraid of trying. You can't win if you're not IN a position to win. SF/F slots provide the opportunities.
Many others forgot that Fedr was on the brink of being yanked from pro-tennis had he not provided tangible results in his early few years on tour. His dad, Robert, provided Fedr the ultimatum then, as it was not productive to tread water. Gotta pay the bills, and there's a life to live. He wasn't today's Fedr, and he never would be if he didn't continue to provide more opportunities to succeed for himself (in slams like RG19 or otherwise) even after taking defeats after devastating defeats.
Fedr's chances aren't nil, and he's one of the few who HAS beaten prime Nadal on clay (and was awfully close at RG11). Not many can say this. And he's probably the only active player (or ever?) to ever bagel Nadal on clay on the pro circuit. Not any Nadal, but prime Nadal.
This could be an upset.
Side note: in Djokovic's half, many are penciling him in for the finals, but it's premature. They did that at WTF18 bc his finals opponent was Z, someone he just destroyed a few days earlier in RR. Z had no pressure and nothing to lose for WTF18, and we know how that panned out. And Z is in the same situation of 'nothing to lose' like he was at WTF18 bc not many think he has a chance in this match. This also could be an upset. And if Djokr gets past Z, he still has Thiem (who HAS beaten Djokr multiple times on clay, and even at RG) or Kah Ren (who beat him the last time they played, IN a masters finals).
Luka888
Professional
I know this could be a difficult concept. Fed needs to let it go. Forget abut all previous matches.
Just disconnect. Attack and attack. Serve well. Play within yourself. Play each point as if you were playing for your life. Rafa is actually very predictable if you pay attention. Roger needs to use his brain. Fed is a much better server. Use that weapon. Mix it up.
Just disconnect. Attack and attack. Serve well. Play within yourself. Play each point as if you were playing for your life. Rafa is actually very predictable if you pay attention. Roger needs to use his brain. Fed is a much better server. Use that weapon. Mix it up.
TennisFan3
Talk Tennis Guru
Thanks heavens that is NOT the case. How boring would tennis be, if there was the "perfect" tennis player who won everything, which is what we would get with Fed's game and Pete's mind.
MeatTornado
Talk Tennis Guru
Honestly, I don't even care about the outcome that much. As long as he plays like he's saying he will and goes down swinging, that's all I can ask.
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