How many more French Opens can Rafa win?

How many?

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    65
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vive le beau jeu !

vive le beau jeu !

Talk Tennis Guru
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Respect for big 5 said:
At the moment can't see anyone posing a serious threat, and if he remains healthy...
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can't see anyone posting a serious thread either... :unsure:
 
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G

Goof

Professional
He will win 2 of the next 3, most likely just the next two. Djokovic is his only real threat there now. Rafa, like all of us, will fade with time, but even a fading Rafa won't lose to anyone currently in the mix except for maybe Djok (and only if everything goes right for Djo). Alcarez is likely the next new champion there and he's years away.
 
T

tylerbrisco

Banned
Goof said:
He will win 2 of the next 3, most likely just the next two. Djokovic is his only real threat there now. Rafa, like all of us, will fade with time, but even a fading Rafa won't lose to anyone currently in the mix except for maybe Djok (and only if everything goes right for Djo). Alcarez is likely the next new champion there and he's years away.
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Won't Thiem win a French at some point.
 
yokied

yokied

Hall of Fame
ADuck said:
Schwartzman
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DieGOAT and Thiem have had their chances but they have other technical issues that the Nadal has exploited. Besides, neither can finish the job when they get their chances nor solve other problems eg moonballs.
 
ADuck

ADuck

Legend
yokied said:
DieGOAT and Thiem have had their chances but they have other technical issues that the Nadal has exploited. Besides, neither can finish the job when they get their chances nor solve other problems eg moonballs.
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I agree, but things could change. Nadal is slowing now and Thiem is getting closer and closer to Rafa's level every time they play at RG. Schwartzman is a pain in the *ss every time they play too, so he remains a threat in earlier rounds. Djokovic probably has the biggest chance out of anyone but he's a question mark on clay recently.
 
Sport

Sport

G.O.A.T.
tylerbrisco said:
Awww ok. Well I think that is too many. If he wins that many it means no up and comers have emerged, atleast not ones that are decent on clay, which is very bad news for the game in general. The up and comers have been weak for atleast 8 years now.
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Excuses from a Nadal hater. It would mean Nadal is just too good, in case it isn't already clear with 12 RG titles and after having stopped 3 generations of excellent clay courters (Federer, Djokovic and Thiem).
 
T

tylerbrisco

Banned
Sport said:
Excuses from a Nadal hater. It would mean Nadal is just too good, in case it isn't already clear with 12 RG titles and after having stopped 3 generations of excellent clay courters (Federer, Djokovic and Thiem).
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I am a Federer fan and I even admit he would not still be winning slams at 37/38 if the field didn't suck. Federer, Djokovic, Nadal are all benefitting from the weak follow up generations, and now a 3rd straight Generation Suck so it isn't really seperating them much for now. I have no agenda, it is just dissapointing there are no good up and comers for so long now.
 
Rosstour

Rosstour

G.O.A.T.
tylerbrisco said:
Awww ok. Well I think that is too many. If he wins that many it means no up and comers have emerged, atleast not ones that are decent on clay, which is very bad news for the game in general. The up and comers have been weak for atleast 8 years now.
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I prefer to look at it as our Big 3 are just too good.

They are smarter, tougher, more talented, and better movers than 95% of the players who have ever played. That's no knock on the rest of the field, but rather a testament to their greatness.
 
T

tylerbrisco

Banned
Rosstour said:
I prefer to look at it as our Big 3 are just too good.

They are smarter, tougher, more talented, and better movers than 95% of the players who have ever played. That's no knock on the rest of the field, but rather a testament to their greatness.
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I would like to be that positive, but I think it has to be some of both. Yes the Big 3 are amazing but they are also old. Federer is super old. Nadal is really even older than 33 given all his injuries. No matter how good they are, there should not be non existing challenges to them from young players at their age. The young players suck, most of them aren't even making top 10 or having good slam showings but losing to a Big 3 member. They just don't exist. Someone like Nishikori, an older non great player, is regularly having much better results than almost all the young guys.

Medvedev's recent little blip is the first thing we have seen from a young player in forever now. That and more needs to start happening much more often. Thiem on clay has done pretty well but he isn't even a young player anymore, a middle aged one.
 
kevaninho

kevaninho

Hall of Fame
Itll be a sad day when we see Rafa being bulldozed on clay courts by scrubs.
It will happen one day, but I feel he has 2 more in him, then maybe a 3rd or 4th round defeat the year after, then he will probably solely play clay tournaments the last couple years on the tour, but wont win anything.
That's how I see him going out.
I doubt he retires with injury while he can still win FO titles.
 
G

Goof

Professional
tylerbrisco said:
Won't Thiem win a French at some point.
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It's possible, but he will never beat Rafa there, so he needs an injury, help from the seeding, draw, and Djo, or for Rafa to retire. I fear Thiem will mentally wear down from losing to Rafa so much that he might not be able to still capitalize after Rafa is done.
 
Rosstour

Rosstour

G.O.A.T.
tylerbrisco said:
I would like to be that positive, but I think it has to be some of both. Yes the Big 3 are amazing but they are also old. Federer is super old. Nadal is really even older than 33 given all his injuries. No matter how good they are, there should not be non existing challenges to them from young players at their age. The young players suck, most of them aren't even making top 10 or having good slam showings but losing to a Big 3 member. They just don't exist. Someone like Nishikori, an older non great player, is regularly having much better results than almost all the young guys.

Medvedev's recent little blip is the first thing we have seen from a young player in forever now. That and more needs to start happening much more often. Thiem on clay has done pretty well but he isn't even a young player anymore, a middle aged one.
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Yes and no, that's the glass-half-empty view.

Older players used to get knocked off in their late 20s and were pretty much done by 30ish. Look at Sampras, he was an absolute shell of his former self by the time he won that final USO. He won exactly zero titles in his age-30 season, lost to Fed at Wimbledon and Hewitt in straights at the USO.

Contrast that to Fed, whose 30s alone constitute a better career than the entire careers of guys like Murray, Wawrinka, Courier, Hewitt, Roddick, Safin, etc.
 
victorcruz

victorcruz

Hall of Fame
tylerbrisco said:
You really don't think so? I would feel sad for him if he doesn't. Guy is such a hard worker, and a good clay courter, he deserves atleast 1. And given how players age or don't age today he should have chances until the year 2026 atleast.
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I really hope he gets at least 1. He's a great guy and a great clay courter. I know he can't touch Rafa at RG but he usually beats Rafa once a year at a clay masters.
 
G

Goof

Professional
Rosstour said:
Yes and no, that's the glass-half-empty view.

Older players used to get knocked off in their late 20s and were pretty much done by 30ish. Look at Sampras, he was an absolute shell of his former self by the time he won that final USO. He won exactly zero titles in his age-30 season, lost to Fed at Wimbledon and Hewitt in straights at the USO.

Contrast that to Fed, whose 30s alone constitute a better career than the entire careers of guys like Murray, Wawrinka, Courier, Hewitt, Roddick, Safin, etc.
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Wasn't the loss to Fed the previous year? I thought he lost to George Bastl in the first round of his last Wimbledon (which is obviously even worse! ).
 
aman92

aman92

Legend
Depends... If his body is breaking down I can see him play literally nothing except for the clay court season so I can still see him going strong there. Right now Thiem is his closest challenger so we'll have to see what level Dominic steps up over the next couple of seasons
 
D

Deleted member 762343

Guest
I think he will end up with 14 RG titles, so 2 more.
 
D

Deleted member 77403

Guest
Rafa is not going to retire until he is 100% sure he cannot win RG anymore. If he gets the slam record, he will do everything he can to put it out of reach for the players coming up in the future. So, he could potentially win multiple more RG titles yet.
 
P

Pantera

Banned
Hitman said:
Rafa is not going to retire until he is 100% sure he cannot win RG anymore. If he gets the slam record, he will do everything he can to put it out of reach for the players coming up in the future. So, he could potentially win multiple more RG titles yet.
[/QUOTE

Rafa not bothered about slam record...he wants to end his career with a run of injury free slams. I suspect once he is married he will stop winning so my guess is one more FO. Next year will be his last year as a Major contender.

Tennis is not Nadals life. He has achieved more than he ever thought he could. Its all gravy for him now. Federer and Djokovic seem more concerned about records so good luck to both.
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S

StrongRule

Talk Tennis Guru
Hitman said:
Rafa is not going to retire until he is 100% sure he cannot win RG anymore. If he gets the slam record, he will do everything he can to put it out of reach for the players coming up in the future. So, he could potentially win multiple more RG titles yet.
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Motivation is not enough to win slams though. Even this year Nadal looked totally done during most of the clay season. He managed to save it at the last moment, but who knows for how longer will he be able to do that.
 
D

Deleted member 77403

Guest
StrongRule said:
Motivation is not enough to win slams though. Even this year Nadal looked totally done during most of the clay season. He managed to save it at the last moment, but who knows for how longer will he be able to do that.
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When players start to beat him there, heck even take him to five sets, let me know. Nadal has a few more left to win.
 
V

Vamos Rafa Nadal

Guest
I am predicting 3 more but only if he doesn't sustain any major injuries over the next 4 years :)
 
S

StrongRule

Talk Tennis Guru
Hitman said:
When players start to beat him there, heck even take him to five sets, let me know. Nadal has a few more left to win.
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It all happens out of nowhere. I don't think anybody could think in 2009 that Federer is going to lose to Berdych in Wimbledon.
 
Rosstour

Rosstour

G.O.A.T.
Goof said:
Wasn't the loss to Fed the previous year? I thought he lost to George Bastl in the first round of his last Wimbledon (which is obviously even worse! ).
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Yeah I'm sorry if it seemed like I was mixing years, but 2001 was his age-30 season (born 1971, although he like Fed has an August birthday), and that's when he lost to Fed at W and Hewitt at US.

Bastl was the following year, and obviously that is worse. He also lost to Wayne Arthurs at Cincinnati and Paul-Henri Mathieu at Long Island that year.

Fed's closest analogy to the Bastl loss has to be Stakhovsky, and we are six years past that already and he is still making Slam QFs, SFs, Fs with chances to win them.
 
G

Goof

Professional

Rafa has explicitly said that his re-vamped serve and more aggressive play is for the purpose of extending his career. I doubt he means extending it just one more year.
 
T

tylerbrisco

Banned
Rosstour said:
Yes and no, that's the glass-half-empty view.

Older players used to get knocked off in their late 20s and were pretty much done by 30ish. Look at Sampras, he was an absolute shell of his former self by the time he won that final USO. He won exactly zero titles in his age-30 season, lost to Fed at Wimbledon and Hewitt in straights at the USO.

Contrast that to Fed, whose 30s alone constitute a better career than the entire careers of guys like Murray, Wawrinka, Courier, Hewitt, Roddick, Safin, etc.
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Here is the thing. Even remove the Big 3 and who wins the slams since 2017.

2017 Australian- Dmitrov. Not really a young gun anymore, barely was that point.
2017 French- Wawrinka.
2017 Wimbledon- Berdych or Cilic (probably Berdych since Cilic was much too poor in the final to beat anyone); maybe even Raonic
2017 U.S Open- Del Potro or Anderson
2018 Australian- Cilic
2018 French- Thiem. Not really a young gun anymore as already noted.
2018 Wimbledon- Anderson or Isner (LOL)
2018 U.S Open- Del Potro
2019 Australian-Pouille or Tsitsipas
2019 French- Thiem
2019 Wimbledon- Nishikori

So as you see here there is hardly anything with young guns breaking through even in the new parallel universe you remove the Big 3 and with Wawrinka and Murray basicaly dunzo, and Del Potro and Cilic (plus Berdych and Tsonga) clearly past their primes now, you have an utter rubbish field. Even in that they aren't breaking through, their only slams are maybe Tsitsipas at the Australian this year.

And as I said the so called young guns can't even consistently outperform older non great players like Nishikori or Raonic in slams.

I am a fan of tennis more than any one player and I want a healthy tour moving forward. I know nobody is going to replace the Big 3 but I want some bonafide elite and champion quality players coming up. We certainly don't have those at the moment. The best thing for the mens game would be Medvedev to win the U.S Open. I don't see it happening though, he should make the final which is atleast a start though.
 
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