How well does Rafa need to do well at Cincy to gain confidence for USO

[srinrajesh]

I think that he needs to get a few more matches under his belt on the HC.
He was rusty at Toronto and did have far more UE's. He did well to fight back in the second set agaisnt Murray and did have break points to go up a break.

Murray came up with some aggressive play and big serves to save the breakpoints. Rafa should be reasonably happy with his level first tournament on HC which is a tough adjustment for him. Remember Murray had already played a tournament on HC and reached final.

Personally I feel Nadal needs at least 3-4 matches and should not have an easy defeat to any top contender. So at least SF / tough QTF match is the minimum he needs. This would ensure he stays reasonably fresh as well and not fatigued like 2008 after winning olympics.

Do you feel that if he wins the Cincy tournament or reaches final playing three or four tough 3 set matches, he would be tired and susceptible to fatigue this year. If he does win would the confidence gained be better for his USO chances or would it be better if he loses comparitively earlier...

I also feel it is more difficult to beat Nadal in a grand slam because it is best of 5 sets even if it is on fast HC. So only few players would be able to pull it off. I feel this year could be Nadal's best chance to win the USO. If he does he will become the first mens player in history to win 3 consecutive slams on 3 different surfaces..

 

[Bud]

SF should do it, like 09

 

[vortex1]

I would be satisfied with win over Berdych in QF - going further should only be attempted if his body is handling it well, otherwise he should just tank after QF.

 

[srinrajesh]

Rafa doesnt know how to tank especially in Masters events. Well instead of trying 110% maybe he can try 90% once he reaches SF But what if he faces Federer wouldnt he want to get a win over Fed before USO in case they meet there?

 

[vortex1]

Rafa doesnt know how to tank especially in Masters events. Well instead of trying 110% maybe he can try 90% once he reaches SF But what if he faces Federer wouldnt he want to get a win over Fed before USO in case they meet there?

If Nadal faces Fed in SF, I think he'll play out of his mind like he always does. If he faces some nobody, he might tank.

 

[srinrajesh]

The draw looks like we cud well see Nadal Fed in SF for first time after few years ... unless Berdych has a great day agaisnt Nadal..
Whatever his result in Cincy , I do hope Nadal doesnt lose to Fed..

 

[obsessedtennisfandisorder]

well I'm hoping his game is better but I 'm a little annoyed at the draw.

it basically means if he beats berdych he gets on a rollercoaster and will wan to win the whole thing.....this would be wonderful for those knees....not

here's hoping his game returns but berdych plays a blinder.

 

[refresher]

My prediction is nadal will be eliminated at the SFs, which according to my calculations has a 88% chance of happening.

 

[Antonio Puente]

He's wired to peak at slams. He lost to Fed before he won the French, Monfils before the AO and Lopez prior to Wimbledon.

 

[Marius_Hancu]

Beating Berdych again would be good, but let's see it first.
However, irrelevant on the whole. He's already in good shape, but GS/USO is quite another matter.

 

[angiebaby]

I'd be happy with a SF. A win would be great obviously, - and I honestly don't think it would be detrimental to the state of his knees either - but like someone else has said, a loss before a grand slam isn't indicative of an upcoming GS performance.

Toronto was a decent start to the HC season, I hope Cincy can be a 'polishing' ground for his game before he ideally peaks at the USO.

 

[yoko]

Good run, few three setters will all help

 

[LetsGoRoddick]

If he beats a top 10 player,definitely that will help him confidence wise- he needs a signature win against a top guy.

 

[brad1730]

He's wired to peak at slams. He lost to Fed before he won the French, Monfils before the AO and Lopez prior to Wimbledon.

I agree. I think he changed his attitude after the knees went out.

 

[refresher]

A SF finish at Cincy will be good preparation for a SF finish at the USO.

 

[The-Champ]

He should lose in the 2nd round if he knows what's good for him.

 

[Kam2010]

What Nadal needs is to play more games on HC, possibly getting to Final at CC (IF he plays Fed in semis)
As long as he beats Fed he has won the tourny on this forum lol

 

[meg0529]

What Nadal needs is to play more games on HC, possibly getting to Final at CC (IF he plays Fed in semis)
As long as he beats Fed he has won the tourny on this forum lol

LOLLLL! That's hilarious.

 

[meg0529]

big wins are key. Finals would be nice =D

 

[refresher]

What Nadal needs is to play more games on HC, possibly getting to Final at CC (IF he plays Fed in semis)
As long as he beats Fed he has won the tourny on this forum lol

Actually he needs less games because he needs to preserve his knees.

 

[refresher]

If he beats a top 10 player,definitely that will help him confidence wise- he needs a signature win against a top guy.

We have a winner!

 

[drakulie]

He would need to win the singles, doubles, and mixed doubles title (if there even is one).

On a serious note, I don't think he needs to win. Just play good tennis, get a good rythm on his shots, and get use to the HC's.

 

[NADALbULLS]

Before the 2009 Australian Open Nadal had won nothing since August 2008. I don't think he needs to win anything at Cincy.

 

[obsessedtennisfandisorder]

He would need to win the singles, doubles, and mixed doubles title (if there even is one).

On a serious note, I don't think he needs to win. Just play good tennis, get a good rythm on his shots, and get use to the HC's.

good points serious drak, I'd be really interested to see how his game is progressing during the berdych q.

Another point to note...there are elements of the murray game that I sat back thinkingit's a tactical/match up issue as much an an underplay one.

In other words....he got to the semis pretty easily..maybe he needs to thik about his tactics a little more than practicing strokes all the time. people say work on the DTL Backhand..but in my opionion the DTL Backhand has always been a hit and miss shot for rafa..even when he's on fire.

He played the worst possible matchup, on fire murray, maybe he is actually getting closer to his best than many want to admit.

for example...people say improve the serve, but what are you expecting...more matches means 140kph bombs at US Open.

anything loss earlier than fed and i'm happy.

and remember kids..you can't win slams tired or injured.

 

[Deleted member 77403]

A couple of matches to adjust to the true fast courts should be enough. He should also be fairly fresh as well. He does not need to win Cincy to gain confidence, a couple of good wins where he plays AGRESSIVELY will be sufficient.

 

[phoenicks]

I would say keeping his knee fresh is far more important than anything else

 

[NADALbULLS]

I was thinking he shouldn't have played Toronto and just play Cincy. But he's played Toronto, so if he has a long week at Cincy it won't be beneficial. Losing early at Cincy therefore isn't a bad thing. It sure is tempting though to beat Federer and improve the head2head to 4-3 hardcourts.

 

[coloskier]

I would say keeping his knee fresh is far more important than anything else

Along this line, someone should start a poll stating in which round will Nadal lose and claim "injury"? :lol:

 

[drakulie]

Along this line, someone should start a poll stating in which round will Nadal lose and claim "injury"? :lol:

Funny you mention that.

Immediately after his loss to Murray in Toronto, LeoR began a thread stating Nadal was injured. LOL Anyway, he got pretty nasty in there, the thread was deleted, and he was banned.

 

[veroniquem]

Nadal has enough experience as a top player and enough mental toughness to do well in a slam regardless of what happens in other tournaments. In 2009, he won AO after getting a severe beating from Monfils in Doha (I think it was in quarters), in 2010 he won Wimbledon after losing in straights to Lopez in Queen's quarters and in 2008 he won the Olympics right after getting thrashed by Djoko in Cincy's semi.
I'm sure Nadal will be ready and pumped for USO regardless of what happens in Cincy.

 

[refresher]

I would say keeping his knee fresh is far more important than anything else

exactly

I think he should just not play at all and save all his rabbit energy for the Big Apple

 

[Cyan]

Cincy result doesn't matter. He lost to Monfils:lol: at Doha before winning AO in 2009.

 

[ballboy48]

Rafa will be destroyed by Berdych at CIncy and will not with the USO.

 

[NADALbULLS]

Rafa will be destroyed by Berdych at CIncy and will not with the USO.

I agree, Rafa will not be destroyed by Berdych at the USO. Berdych can't win a point when he doesn't get his 1st serve in vs RAfARARa.

 

[srinrajesh]

exactly

I think he should just not play at all and save all his rabbit energy for the Big Apple

No.. I wud say he needs more matchplay on the HC to adjust his game. He has not displayed the aggresive mindset on breakpoints yet. Toronto showed his rustiness and he should also try out some more things before the USO like more netplay and taking the second serve return early..In the first few matches he was standing 3-4 metres behind the baseline and even farther than while returning the first serve...

 

[NADALbULLS]

Nadal said in a press conference last week that he makes a decision just before the opponent serves whether to stand back or come into the baseline. He says he decides based on how he feels at that exact time. So maybe he could do with more time on hardcourts to get the instinct right of when to move forward. However he would only need to do it at Cincy if he had a really tough opponent early in the US Open, and the odds of that are small. Players don't stretch him 5 sets at the US Open the last 2 years when he's made the semis quite comfortably (even though he was playing with the injured abdominal muscle last year).

 

[meg0529]

Nadal said in a press conference last week that he makes a decision just before the opponent serves whether to stand back or come into the baseline. He says he decides based on how he feels at that exact time. So maybe he could do with more time on hardcourts to get the instinct right of when to move forward. However he would only need to do it at Cincy if he had a really tough opponent early in the US Open, and the odds of that are small. Players don't stretch him 5 sets at the US Open the last 2 years when he's made the semis quite comfortably (even though he was playing with the injured abdominal muscle last year).

You got it right there, about the instinct. But tanking Cincy would not help with that. I think Rafa is healthy, and fine. I think people should stop focusing on the knees. He needs to get as much competitive practice as possible. You never know who he might bump into in the early rounds at USO. Plus, I think someone mentioned how Rafa feeds on winning. That is what keeps him going. If he can win big matches, comfortable, that will give him confidence. Rafa needs that. RG and Wimby wins help, but it seems like HC confidence is a whole new start for him. He knows it's his weakest surface, and he won't have a lot of chances at winning the USO, so there is a lot of pressure on him. I think rafa will come through! I still believe it will be this year!

 

[refresher]

No.. I wud say he needs more matchplay on the HC to adjust his game. He has not displayed the aggresive mindset on breakpoints yet. Toronto showed his rustiness and he should also try out some more things before the USO like more netplay and taking the second serve return early..In the first few matches he was standing 3-4 metres behind the baseline and even farther than while returning the first serve...

but... but... his knees!!!

 

[TomatoSoup]

He should just go all out to win Cincy and then tank the USO. After all,Cincy is the real slam. Performing well in the USO would brand Rafa as a fluke.

 

[refresher]

He should just go all out to win Cincy and then tank the USO. After all,Cincy is the real slam. Performing well in the USO would brand Rafa as a fluke.

Cincy is the faster tournament of the two. Therefore if he wins Cincy, then logically speaking, he has won the USO by default.

 

[NADALbULLS]

You got it right there, about the instinct. But tanking Cincy would not help with that. I think Rafa is healthy, and fine. I think people should stop focusing on the knees. He needs to get as much competitive practice as possible. You never know who he might bump into in the early rounds at USO. Plus, I think someone mentioned how Rafa feeds on winning. That is what keeps him going. If he can win big matches, comfortable, that will give him confidence. Rafa needs that. RG and Wimby wins help, but it seems like HC confidence is a whole new start for him. He knows it's his weakest surface, and he won't have a lot of chances at winning the USO, so there is a lot of pressure on him. I think rafa will come through! I still believe it will be this year!

Maybe he needs to beat a top 10 player on hardcourt before the USO. Or maybe not, since he didn't beat anyone before the 2009 Aust Open. We'll see.

 

[clayman2000]

Maybe he needs to beat a top 10 player on hardcourt before the USO. Or maybe not, since he didn't beat anyone before the 2009 Aust Open. We'll see.

I agree with this.

Albiet hes kinda owned Berdych since 06

 

[NADALbULLS]

I agree with this.

Albiet hes kinda owned Berdych since 06

True, I don't consider Berdych a big deal, cos when Berdych misses a 1st serve I see Nadal winning a lot of points, and Nadal should hold his own serve well. So I guess Nadal may get his top 10 hardcourt win soon anyway. And then he can increase his hardcourt head2head with Federbra. And then he'll play Murray which could be a marathon. So hopefully the first few rounds won't be marathons.

 

[PSNELKE]

I think it doesn´t really matter he played like §hit last year at the USO but still reached the SF to get destroyed by Del Potro..

 

[refresher]

I think it doesn´t really matter he played like §hit last year at the USO but still reached the SF to get destroyed by Del Potro..

to be fair, he played better than sh1t against Monfils and Gonzalez.

 

[TomatoSoup]

I think it doesn´t really matter he played like §hit last year at the USO but still reached the SF to get destroyed by Del Potro..

There's no Del Potro this year,but Murray will be there to destroy him. So it makes no difference this year. He's going to be the modern version of Borg,USO will forever remain as his Achilles' heel.

 

[NADALbULLS]

Even though the Del Potro match was 2 2 and 2 it was actually a 140 minute match, and Nadal had breakpoints on Del Potro early but couldn't convert. Nadal's serve was affected the most by the abdominal injury (he said he couldn't serve into the corners without pain), and Nadal did have a tie-breaker with Del Potro at Cincy.

 

[PSNELKE]

There's no Del Potro this year,but Murray will be there to destroy him. So it makes no difference this year. He's going to be the modern version of Borg,USO will forever remain as his Achilles' heel.

But there´re guys like Cilic, Soderling and Berdych who´re also big hitters and they definately can trouble him.. I´d also name Querrey but he´s a choker and moves like Fed with a broken leg which is definately not enough to beat Nadal even when they play on HC.
And Murray is imo the favorit for thw in but I also know that he likes to fail badly at GS finals.

 

[NADALbULLS]

There's no Del Potro this year,but Murray will be there to destroy him. So it makes no difference this year. He's going to be the modern version of Borg,USO will forever remain as his Achilles' heel.

Nadal was up a break in the 4th set vs Murray at US Open 2008. Go to a 5th set and Nadal is favorite. They have very tight matches on hardcourt (except for the 6-1 6-2 Nadal win at Indian Wells 2009).

 

[NADALbULLS]

But there´re guys like Cilic, Soderling and Berdych who´re also big hitters and they definately can trouble him.. I´d also name Querrey but he´s a choker and moves like Fed with a broken leg which is definately not enough to beat Nadal even when they play on HC.
And Murray is imo the favorit for thw in but I also know that he likes to fail badly at GS finals.

Cilic isn't likely to go far in a slam, and he's not a player you'd rely on to even take a set off Nadal despite his talent.

Berdych can't afford to miss a 1st serve vs Nadal. You wouldn't want to bet on him taking a set off Nadal on fast hardcourt either. And I mention this because if you want to beat Nadal you have to do it in 3 or 4 sets obviously. People are deceived by Berdych's greatness because he is Federer's equal.

Soderling, well quite simply Nadal has figured him out. Soderling is just too impatient. And Nadal I think just aims to extend the rally most of the time (as long as Nadal keeps the ball deep).

I rate Murray as the only threat. But I have no doubt Nadal can beat him at the US Open and the odds will be especially against Murray if they meet in the Final.