It's difficult to say. You never really know where you are with Murray. When you have high hopes for him, he often disappoints. When you aren't expecting much, he has a habit of suddenly surprising you. I had high hopes that he was going to avoid his usual post AO slump this year when he made the finals of Dubai, beating Berdych (one of his tricky opponents) and Djokovic along the way. Then I was quickly brought down to earth when he crashed out of IW (yet again) in the 1st round. True, he got to the final of Miami but that was largely courtesy of two walkovers (Raonic and Nadal). So it's difficult even to gauge his current HC form before we even get to clay. His clay performance was very average for him and somewhat of a regression from last year's performance (2 quarters and a 3rd r this year v 3 semis and a 3r last year).
Don't know how much injury has been slowing him down or how much it is due to his trying to become a more aggressive player. I have a feeling he is in a transitional period with his game at the moment where he's trying a few new things (eg. switching from defence to attack more) but, like with all transition periods, the results aren't quite coming through yet. I have begun to expect this to be a bit of a fallow year for him on the results front while he struggles with this transitional period.
Post AO and Dubai, both his HC and clay form has been somewhat mediocre. Be interesting to see how he gets on with grass and whether he has become more comfortable yet with the change-ups in his game.