Murray might not only overtake Federer in the rankings, Nadal could be next

[tennis_pro]

if Murray wins Shanghai (which he probably will given that there's no-one who can threaten him) not only he will surpass Federer in the rankings, he'll be only 2300 ranking points behind Nadal in the race with still Paris (1000), WTF (1500) and one of the 500 to come.

 

[NadalAgassi]

No chance Murray makes up that much ground, especialy with Nadal almost guaranteed around 300 extra points for winning the Davis Cup title.

 

[batz]

No chance Murray makes up that much ground, especialy with Nadal almost guaranteed around 300 extra points for winning the Davis Cup title.

Yep. Rafa would need to implode and Murray would need to win Paris and the WTF. Ain't happening.

Also, Murray isn't playing another 500 event - only Paris and WTF.

 

[kishnabe]

Still this would have to mean Nadal loses every single match remining this year for Murray to have a chance!

 

[NadalAgassi]

The year end rankings will be, without any real doubt whatsoever at this point:

1. Djokovic
2. Nadal- far behind and tons of ground to make up next year
3. Murray
4. Federer
5. Ferrer- most likely

As it should be. Federer has been the best performer of anyone vs Djokovic this year (despite still going 1-4), but beyond that he hasnt been better than Murray in 2011 in any other way.

 

[Tammo]

Nope Murray will catch Federer, and won't get any chance to catch Nadal, it just won't happen.

 

[tennis_pro]

Still this would have to mean Nadal loses every single match remining this year for Murray to have a chance!

Still, if the trend continues Murray will have an excellent chance of topping Nadal in the future. The only tournament from now on till Wimbledon 2012 in which Murray is defending more points than Nadal is the 2012 Australian Open.

No way Nadal reaches 7-8 finals in a row again like he did from IW till Wimbledon (excluding minor Queen's) with Murray falling in a slump at the same time.

 

[Peters]

I think some people are maybe forgetting that Murray only got to one GS final, so a lot of potential for him to get a load more GS points next year (especially if he wins one and gets to a final of another).

Also, he had two 1st round exits in back to back ATP1000 events on his favoured surface - he could make a shedload of points after the Aus Open in 2012 that would bring him right up close to Nadal's no2 spot.

I don't see how he won't have 'any chance' to catch Nadal in the rankings. It seems feasible that he might do, when looking at their points allocations and records of the last year.

 

[Fedex]

if Murray wins Shanghai (which he probably will given that there's no-one who can threaten him) not only he will surpass Federer in the rankings, he'll be only 2300 ranking points behind Nadal in the race with still Paris (1000), WTF (1500) and one of the 500 to come.

Murray's arm would fall off if he did that.

 

[NadalAgassi]

I think some people are maybe forgetting that Murray only got to one GS final, so a lot of potential for him to get a load more GS points next year (especially if he wins one and gets to a final of another).

Also, he had two 1st round exits in back to back ATP1000 events on his favoured surface - he could make a shedload of points after the Aus Open in 2012 that would bring him right up close to Nadal's no2 spot.

I don't see how he won't have 'any chance' to catch Nadal in the rankings. It seems feasible that he might do, when looking at their points allocations and records of the last year.

It could happen but it clearly wont happen in the year 2011 which seemed to be the suggestion of the OP. Also one would expect Nadal to continue far outperforming Murray on both clay and grass and gain a cushion of points there. It is not as easy for Murray to far outperform Nadal on hard courts the same way, Nadal tends to post atleast similar results to Murray on hard courts and even beat him often when they play on the surface.

 

[Fedex]

I think some people are maybe forgetting that Murray only got to one GS final, so a lot of potential for him to get a load more GS points next year (especially if he wins one and gets to a final of another).

Only got to one Slam final! Plus 3 Semis.
That's a tall order to repeat and better that.

Also, he had two 1st round exits in back to back ATP1000 events on his favoured surface - he could make a shedload of points after the Aus Open in 2012 that would bring him right up close to Nadal's no2 spot.

Yes but he also has to repeat and better his amazing Slam run.

I don't see how he won't have 'any chance' to catch Nadal in the rankings. It seems feasible that he might do, when looking at their points allocations and records of the last year.

Yes it's feasible but extremely tough.
Look what he's had to do this year just to get to number 3.

 

[Mainad]

Murray isn't interested in trying to overtake Nadal this year because he knows that is unrealistic. His stated ambition is simply to try and overtake Federer which is possible if he manages to defend Shanghai.

He's not getting carried away. Nor should any of us on here!

 

[Peters]

Yes but he also has to repeat and better his amazing Slam run.

Yes, but really he's at a level now where getting to a slam SF shouldn't pose any major problems. I expect him to repeat that next year at the very least, barring injury.

I wouldn't say it was an amazing GS run necessarily, considering how good he is in comparison to the players below him in the top 10. We need to be careful not to downplay his abilities too much; getting to a slam SF is the very least he should be looking for I'd say.

 

[Sim]

With Djoko and Murray at #1 and #2 with Nadal and Fed at #3 and #4, we'd never see a Fedal semifinal at the slams! :lol:

 

[DjokovicForTheWin]

Once Nadal drops to #3 it will be lights out for him forever given that he could then meet the Djoker in a semi. Nadal may never win another slam if he drops to #3.

 

[Marius_Hancu]

Not significant.
GSs are significant.
Let's see him there.

 

[RF_fan]

It's possible but very unlikely. Murray can get very close to #2 this year, and then get a lot of points at IW and Miami.

 

[Towser83]

Nadal is defending zero points at Paris, so he could make up some ground there. If Nadal does drop to 3 at some time next year though that makes a Djokovic-Federer final a possibility once more. Which would be good for tennis. (I know it's possible at the moment, but Federer would have to beat Nadal for that unless he had lost already, this way he'd have a shot at Murray, Djokovic would play Nadal if the draw went like that)

 

[NadalAgassi]

Nadal is defending zero points at Paris, so he could make up some ground there. If Nadal does drop to 3 at some time next year though that makes a Djokovic-Federer final a possibility once more. Which would be good for tennis. (I know it's possible at the moment, but Federer would have to beat Nadal for that unless he had lost already, this way he'd have a shot at Murray, Djokovic would play Nadal if the draw went like that)

Who knows. If the ATP is really fixing draws as some suspect they would probably put Nadal-Djokovic in the same half since they seem desperate to keep any hopes of Federer-Nadal finals alive, seemingly believing that is what everyone wants to see (amongst casual fans this is probably still true). Then again they might be warmed up to Djokovic now.

 

[Power Player]

Once Nadal drops to #3 it will be lights out for him forever given that he could then meet the Djoker in a semi. Nadal may never win another slam if he drops to #3.

Gran Slam final? According the TT whackos, Nadal is already done, so reaching a semi would be a mini grand slam title for him.

 

[DjokovicForTheWin]

Gran Slam final? According the TT whackos, Nadal is already done, so reaching a semi would be a mini grand slam title for him.

C'mon Nadal is not even close to being done in terms of good results at slams, not necessarily winning them. I mean compare 2011 to previous years from 2005-2007, 2011 is much better in terms of results.

 

[norbac]

Gran Slam final? According the TT whackos, Nadal is already done, so reaching a semi would be a mini grand slam title for him.

No, that applies to the Old Man.

 

[sdont]

No chance Murray makes up that much ground, especialy with Nadal almost guaranteed around 300 extra points for winning the Davis Cup title.

Nadal can gain 150 points at most in the DC final. And that's if he wins 2 live rubbers.

 

[celoft]

Certainly if Murray goes on a winning spree he could get to #2.

But I don't think he will win the WTF(Nole most likely will). He is not playing Valencia and Paris is his worst hc masters series.