jl809
Hall of Fame
Djokovic is my favourite for RG and has a decent shot at a 3 slam season. I am amazed at people calling this an open RG, saying he should skip clay, and that we are watching a passing of the torch moment here.
Djokovic has always been vulnerable in Bo3 since 2016, especially on clay. But in Bo5 he has properly lost only 3 times in the last 4 years - to Nadal 3 times on clay and to Medvedev once on HC. Now there is no Nadal on clay. Djokovic completely owns Tsitsipas, Rublev, Shapovalov etc. He would have won RG last year if Nadal’s foot had kept him out of the tournament.
Rune beat Djokovic yesterday but looked utterly gassed at various stages of the match. He has not yet demonstrated the mental or physical endurance to beat an absolutely elite player over Bo5. His clay results this year have been up and down and he is not even a lock to get past guys like Ruud, Rublev, Tsitsipas and co., as we saw at the AO.
Alcaraz’s last match against Djokovic was a very narrow win on clay in conditions that suit Alcaraz’s game. He has won a slam, sure, but narrowly over Cilic, Tiafoe, Sinner and Ruud, not over Djokovic or Nadal. He has never won a big title where Djokovic was also in the draw. His results are actually similar to last year so far.
No-one has demonstrated repeated success on grass over the last 4 years aside from Djokovic except for Nadal, who didn’t even reach a Wimbledon final. There is no reason to assume that Sinner, who has pushed Djoker closest, will even play him again this year or next year, and that Djokovic will play as badly as he did in that 2022 match vs how he then played vs Kyrgios when a title was on the line.
Djokovic just won the AO without losing a set and had what, 1 loss since RG 2022 all the way up to Dubai? The only confounding factor is an out of form Alcaraz from that time. But we don’t KNOW that in form Alcaraz could actually have changed that.
So yeah, Djokovic is nowhere near done.
Djokovic has always been vulnerable in Bo3 since 2016, especially on clay. But in Bo5 he has properly lost only 3 times in the last 4 years - to Nadal 3 times on clay and to Medvedev once on HC. Now there is no Nadal on clay. Djokovic completely owns Tsitsipas, Rublev, Shapovalov etc. He would have won RG last year if Nadal’s foot had kept him out of the tournament.
Rune beat Djokovic yesterday but looked utterly gassed at various stages of the match. He has not yet demonstrated the mental or physical endurance to beat an absolutely elite player over Bo5. His clay results this year have been up and down and he is not even a lock to get past guys like Ruud, Rublev, Tsitsipas and co., as we saw at the AO.
Alcaraz’s last match against Djokovic was a very narrow win on clay in conditions that suit Alcaraz’s game. He has won a slam, sure, but narrowly over Cilic, Tiafoe, Sinner and Ruud, not over Djokovic or Nadal. He has never won a big title where Djokovic was also in the draw. His results are actually similar to last year so far.
No-one has demonstrated repeated success on grass over the last 4 years aside from Djokovic except for Nadal, who didn’t even reach a Wimbledon final. There is no reason to assume that Sinner, who has pushed Djoker closest, will even play him again this year or next year, and that Djokovic will play as badly as he did in that 2022 match vs how he then played vs Kyrgios when a title was on the line.
Djokovic just won the AO without losing a set and had what, 1 loss since RG 2022 all the way up to Dubai? The only confounding factor is an out of form Alcaraz from that time. But we don’t KNOW that in form Alcaraz could actually have changed that.
So yeah, Djokovic is nowhere near done.
