Rankings after AUS OPEN

[dropserve]

If we remove the defending points from doha and aus open, the top 5 players ''begin'' with:

Federer.....9260
Djokovic....7950
Nadal........7160
Murray......6600
Del Potro...6425

Lets suppose Doha does not exist. After all it gives few points comparing to Australia.

Federer can only lose No1 spot if Djoko wins the slam and Fed loses in QF or before. (Djoko would be at 9950 points and Fed at 9620).
That's difficult to happen, but not impossible.


Oups forgot to erase the 250 points from auckland from Delpo....
Anyway, that doesn't change much.

The interesting thing is that Nadal needs to gain 800 points more than Djoko to remain No2.
That means if Djoko makes the QF, Nadal has to win the slam again to remain No2 and if he just make the final, Djoko has to lose at R16.
If the spaniard don't play in the final bye bye No2.

It is very likely for Nadal to be at No5, if he loses early (R32) and Murray and Potro do well---> Potro final and Murray Semi.

Of course that is the worst scenario for Nadal but it can happen.

Can you imagine after australia:
No1....Djoko
No2....Fed
No3....Del Potro
No4....Murray
No5....Nadal

Quite difficult but not impossible....

 

[thalivest]

I dont see Djokovic winning Australia. Could happen but more likely Federer or Del Potro. Djokovic lacks the mental toughness to win the big event at the moment, and Federer brings it to the big events and when he does he is too good for Djokovic unless Djokovic is playing his A++ game (eg- 2008 Australian Open). Del Potro seems to be coming into the zone where he will be very difficult to stop in the bigger events next year. I am not sure what to make of Murray's chances. However if he plays Djokovic I predict he will win as he has owned him the last year and half.

Right now I am not that optimistic about Nadal's chances at any near hard court slam anyway, but if he regains top form somehow I would even give him a better shot than Djokovic of actually winning. Djokovic I expect to do his usual in the slams, get to the quarters or semis and go out to either another big name he usually loses to in a slam or a red hot opponent.

 

[bolo]

I dont see Djokovic winning Australia. Could happen but more likely Federer or Del Potro. Djokovic lacks the mental toughness to win the big event at the moment, and Federer brings it to the big events and when he does he is too good for Djokovic unless Djokovic is playing his A++ game (eg- 2008 Australian Open). Del Potro seems to be coming into the zone where he will be very difficult to stop in the bigger events next year. I am not sure what to make of Murray's chances. However if he plays Djokovic I predict he will win as he has owned him the last year and half.

Right now I am not that optimistic about Nadal's chances at any near hard court slam anyway, but if he regains top form somehow I would even give him a better shot than Djokovic of actually winning. Djokovic I expect to do his usual in the slams, get to the quarters or semis and go out to either another big name he usually loses to in a slam or a red hot opponent.

It will be interesting to see djokovic next year. I was impressed with how easily he beat nadal at WTF even though imo Djokovic physically wasn't really there. My rankings if AO started today: Federer, Djokovic, Delpo, Murray, Nadal, Davydenko, Verdasco. Soderling out before QF.

 

[thalivest]

It will be interesting to see djokovic next year. I was impressed with how easily he beat nadal at WTF even though imo Djokovic physically wasn't really there. My rankings if AO started today: Federer, Djokovic, Delpo, Murray, Nadal, Davydenko, Verdasco. Soderling out before QF.

I dont the WTF was a particularly successful event for Djokovic though. Nadal was the whooping boy there unfortunately, but Djokovic got blown out by Soderling who he had never lost to before, was lucky to beat Davydenko, and was eliminated in RR play when most predicted him to win.

 

[bolo]

I dont the WTF was a particularly successful event for Djokovic though. Nadal was the whooping boy there unfortunately, but Djokovic got blown out by Soderling who he had never lost to before, was lucky to beat Davydenko, and was eliminated in RR play when most predicted him to win.

I think djokovic lost the WTF battle but won the war. He really stretched his physical limits last year and played an incredible number of matches. The hard courts are the most competitive surface so it might not pay off in the end but I think who ever beats him is going to have to put up a really big fight.

 

[djokovicgonzalez2010]

1. Roger Federer
2. Novak Djokovic
3. Juan Martin del Potro?
4. Rafael Nadal?
5. Andy Murray

 

[edmondsm]

I'm not ready to count Nadal out of the Aussie. Sure he didn't finish the year strong, but he never does. I wouldn't be surprised if he defended his title. Then again, I wouldn't be surprised if he wasn't around for the 2nd week.

 

[djokovicgonzalez2010]

I'm not ready to count Nadal out of the Aussie. Sure he didn't finish the year strong, but he never does. I wouldn't be surprised if he defended his title. Then again, I wouldn't be surprised if he wasn't around for the 2nd week.

Yeah but he also missed a lot so he wasnt tired..... Davydenko was the only other person who missed anywhere near a much and look how he ended the year

 

[edmondsm]

Yeah but he also missed a lot so he wasnt tired..... Davydenko was the only other person who missed anywhere near a much and look how he ended the year

It's not just fatigue, it's the fast indoor courts. Easily the worst surface for Nadal. He only won Madrid that one time because Ljubicic completely choked in the final against him.

 

[Agassifan]

Nadal will be a threat to win the Aussie. I think the favorites list should go something like this

1. Fed
2. Djokovic
3. Delpo
4. Nadal
5. Murray

Djokovic is ahead of Delpo just because he has shown he can win on slow hard.

 

[djokovicgonzalez2010]

Nadal will be a threat to win the Aussie. I think the favorites list should go something like this

1. Fed
2. Djokovic
3. Delpo
4. Nadal
5. Murray

Djokovic is ahead of Delpo just because he has shown he can win on slow hard.

Top 3 are right but 4 & 5 look so weak I might say Davydenko, Söderling, or maybe even Verdasco

 

[egn]

Top 3 are right but 4 & 5 look so weak I might say Davydenko, Söderling, or maybe even Verdasco

I could see where you were coming from until that. Verdasco will be out of the top 10 more or less probably by the end of the AO. When was the last time he beat a player of note?

 

[AM95]

I dont see Djokovic winning Australia. Could happen but more likely Federer or Del Potro. Djokovic lacks the mental toughness to win the big event at the moment, and Federer brings it to the big events and when he does he is too good for Djokovic unless Djokovic is playing his A++ game (eg- 2008 Australian Open). Del Potro seems to be coming into the zone where he will be very difficult to stop in the bigger events next year. I am not sure what to make of Murray's chances. However if he plays Djokovic I predict he will win as he has owned him the last year and half.

Right now I am not that optimistic about Nadal's chances at any near hard court slam anyway, but if he regains top form somehow I would even give him a better shot than Djokovic of actually winning. Djokovic I expect to do his usual in the slams, get to the quarters or semis and go out to either another big name he usually loses to in a slam or a red hot opponent.

hmm yea..A++ game when Federer had mono

 

[djokovicgonzalez2010]

I could see where you were coming from until that. Verdasco will be out of the top 10 more or less probably by the end of the AO. When was the last time he beat a player of note?

I wrote Gonzalez but changed it cuz of the obvious bias...

 

[crackbillionair]

Top 3 are right but 4 & 5 look so weak I might say Davydenko, Söderling, or maybe even Verdasco

Roddick is in the discussion ahead of Davydenko, Verdasco, and probably some others. Roddick should probably be ahead of Djoker (beat him there last year) and Murray.

Until Rafa loses, he will be very dangerous down under. I'd go Federer/Del Potro/ Nadal/ Roddick, in not too specific order.

 

[Rhino]

why should we suppose doha does not exist, it does murray won it thats a good few points for him to lose but dont forget the Heiniken open where delpo is deffending champion.

these kind of threads are extreamly pointless

to many what ifs
s

Del Potro isn't defending Auckland.

I think this thread is interesting because it looks like one way or the other there will be a rankings shake up coming at around this time, and it could be quite significant. I can imagine Federer and Nadal losing early and perhaps Djokovic taking advantage. This would be huge news in tennis.

 

[thalivest]

I wrote Gonzalez but changed it cuz of the obvious bias...

Well you should change it back. Gonzalez has a better shot of returning to the top 10 than Verdasco has of staying there. Gonzalez has atleast been pretty much in the top 15 for a number of years now he isnt a fluke. I dont want to say Verdasco is a fluke but this has all the markings of being a career year for him. I am happy Verdasco had what will likely be his best year ever but the guy isnt top 10 calibre. He has rode of the coattails of his career tournament in Australia and his ranking has been high enough to give him decent enough draws to scrape the points he needed to stay top 10 and even get into the top 8 TMC for now. It wont last once the Australian Open rolls around, and given his seeming inability to beat any other top 10 players (as well as not being immune to losses to guys lower ranked) it would be a shock if he returned back to the top 10 for a sustained period ever again.

 

[clayman2000]

I'm not ready to count Nadal out of the Aussie. Sure he didn't finish the year strong, but he never does. I wouldn't be surprised if he defended his title. Then again, I wouldn't be surprised if he wasn't around for the 2nd week.

Exactly. For all we know, Nadal could find his early 09 game during the offseason and whip all competiton. Or he could continue his defensive predictable game and make the QF, but get owned by a top 10er

 

[OddJack]

I'm not ready to count Nadal out of the Aussie. Sure he didn't finish the year strong, but he never does. I wouldn't be surprised if he defended his title. Then again, I wouldn't be surprised if he wasn't around for the 2nd week.

Yes, he never does, but he never lost at FO either. This year and this Nadal is different from what we have seen in previous years imo.

Originally Posted by Agassifan
Nadal will be a threat to win the Aussie. I think the favorites list should go something like this

1. Fed
2. Djokovic
3. Delpo
4. Nadal
5. Murray

Guys at quarter final, in order of chance:
1-Delpo
2-Rodge
3-Djok
4-Rod
5-Tsong
6-Davy
7-Cilic
8-Sod

Nadal will be taken out by one of his Spanish former puppets.

 

[djokovicgonzalez2010]

Yes, he never does, but he never lost at FO either. This year and this Nadal is different from what we have seen in previous years imo.



Guys at quarter final, in order of chance:
1-Delpo
2-Rodge
3-Djok
4-Rod
5-Tsong
6-Davy
7-Cilic
8-Sod

Nadal will be taken out by one of his Spanish former puppets.

I'd put Soderling WAYYYY up there. I think since the FO he has lost ONE match to someone ranked under him (Feliciano Lopez) and he is #8. Tsonga hasn't looked great but yeah maybe, and Roddick has big upset potential.Unless del Potro runs into Hewitt he's fine. I dunno about a Spanish player taking him out. Almagro and Robredo both seized up serving for the match.

 

[Davy_for _GOAT]

I dont see Djokovic winning Australia. Could happen but more likely Federer or Del Potro. Djokovic lacks the mental toughness to win the big event at the moment, and Federer brings it to the big events and when he does he is too good for Djokovic unless Djokovic is playing his A++ game (eg- 2008 Australian Open). Del Potro seems to be coming into the zone where he will be very difficult to stop in the bigger events next year. I am not sure what to make of Murray's chances. However if he plays Djokovic I predict he will win as he has owned him the last year and half.

Delpo? You are aware that the last player who won another slam right after winning his fist one was Jimmy Connors back in 1974.

It usually takes some time before one wins another slam right after his first one.

 

[dropserve]

Basically i wasnt reffering to the perfomance of the top players in aus open, but the impact that, that performance will have in the rankigs.

We could see Djoko No1.
We could see Nadal No5.
We could see the most different top 5 rankings after a slam after a long long time.