The Arrogance of Alcaraz is and will be his undoing

MrFlip

Professional
You're wrong. He does scrap in rallies. His problem is his own arrogance where he thinks he's Federer/Nadal/Djokovic and can hit anything at will:

- Passing shots
- Drop volleys
- Running forehands/backhands

His backhand technique is very bad for a number one player. The left hand doesn't move at all.
 

mcs1970

Hall of Fame
That's actually really interesting point. Thiem was more or less the same example. He did not win easy points or matches. He always had to be at the peak of his powers, play every point at 120% and sometimes it was so draining physically and mentally that he could not finish the tournament and win it. That's why he lost so many finals (ATP Finals for example).

On the other hand i do believe that Carlos has much more variety and "easy" power than Thiem. He needs to play like he did against Novak during Wimbledon 2023. I don't know why he switched again to his "usual" playstyle and tries to play highlight reel points and finish the rallies as fast as possible. During Wimbledon he developed safer baseline play, with less power but more precision and it worked absolutely brilliant against Novak.

I don’t look at Carlos’s game and associate it with “easy power”. He certainly has a power game. The problem is he seems to need to expend a lot of energy which is why IMO he tries to shorten points with his sudden touch shots.

Sinner has what I would categorize as “easy power“ Not a better player overall but can hit power shots expending less energy.
 

NYTennisfan

Professional
I don't think it's arrogance, I just think he's young and inconsistent and to say that Carlos Alcaraz of all people lacks the heart and desire in anything tennis related is complete nonsense.

I do think he's overconfident at times which can border on arrogance (doesn't every great player have a hint of arrogance?) and he certainly lacks patience too often to dial it back and prolong a rally to wait until a more favorable shot presents itself or to force the opponent to make errors.

I think there's several things he needs to improve on. The first serve to get him more free points so he doesn't have to strain every rally not unlike a young Nadal, forehand consistency as he sprays it way too much because he tries to hit through the ball too much and shot tolerance, learning to be more cerebral when it's warranted. I thought what won him Wimbledon was dialing back the aggressiveness after the first set and getting into rallies more with Djokovic instead of trying to hit winners on every shot.

Most importantly? Maturity. He's 20 which some people seem to forget. Consistency should come with simply gaining more experience on and off the court and learning to deal with pressure. He's not a lost cause like some seem to think he is but he still has a ways to go to reach ATG level consistently. Maybe he never gets there but I'm also not writing him off at 20 after a hell of a career thus far.
 
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AgassiSuperSlam11

Professional
Like a broken record i repeated the prediction that Alcaraz is a 4-8 slam winner and it's unlikely any player will be a double-digit slam winner in the next decade. He is a Cat 1-2 Clay/HC player but also has won 2 Grass titles. His shot selection is often poor, and his weaknesses get more exploited in the faster HC. However, he is not a mug as some have stated. He needs to still make improvements on his slice, BH, and serve. Nonetheless, there are plenty of tournaments as Miami, IW, USO, Clay, and Grass events in which he can compete. In fact, when someone said maybe IGA can win 10 or more slams, I accurately predicted her trouble with AO and Wimbledon. The difference is that Alcaraz unlike IGA, has showed ability to win in Grass.

As an aside, I find it odd that in the last 3 slams and also the ATP Finals (same group) that Alcaraz, Meddy, and Z all have been in the same half of the draw. The aforementioned players will give Alcaraz trouble in faster HC.

Alcaraz has 2 slam wins under his belt and not technically old enough to buy a beer in the US let's not totally erase him and his future.
 

darthrafa

Hall of Fame
he is not arrogant. just too overconfident with his completeness of his box of tricks
he does possess everything to be a great player (except the tennis iq i mentioned on another post). however, at this moment, he is just like a costco
it has everything but it is also difficult to get what u really need/want
all of a sudden, he gets lost
 

airchallenge2

Hall of Fame
He's not a "kid" or child. He's an adult and one would expect even a crumb of maturity to grow within his mind.

Than again, he's surrounded by arrogance or ridiculous statements, such as one person trying to place his talent on the level of McEnroe, which is an absurd statement in the extreme.
For sure he is not a kid/child and for sure he is not a full grown man. To me Nole at 20 vs. Nole now is like to different universes.
 

Enceladus

Legend
No, the ranking has been frozen for a very long time, not only in 2020.
I think you're forgetting that Djokovic won three Grand Slams in 2021 and earned a full 1,200 points for his US Open final appearance because he lost all points for the previous year due to disqualification, while Medvedev earned an extra 1,280 points because he defended the previous year SF.

Points from some tournaments were in the rankings for more than 52 weeks, but Djokovic did not particularly benefit from this. Rather, it helped Federer stay in the TOP 10 despite his long playing inactivity.
 

PistolPete23

Hall of Fame
His game will mature over time as he matures humanly. I’d say he’s pretty down to earth for a 20 year old who has already won two slams. He has a great team and carries himself with a positive attitude, even when he loses. I’ve never detected arrogance from him, and nobody on tour has ever accused him of being arrogant. Rune, on the other hand …
 

PistolPete23

Hall of Fame
he is not arrogant. just too overconfident with his completeness of his box of tricks
he does possess everything to be a great player (except the tennis iq i mentioned on another post). however, at this moment, he is just like a costco
it has everything but it is also difficult to get what u really need/want
all of a sudden, he gets lost
I look forward to the coming years and seeing his game mature.
 
True but Rafa is a bigger guy. Plus even with Nadal many said it was unsustainable early on and that by 27 he would be injury riddled. Rafa turned out to be a freak and kept on going.

Carlos might also turn out to be a freak but his current style of hitting a lot of drop shots shows he clearly doesn’t believe he can do it the Rafa way.
It's his goal, that is way too far sighted! He has to think about current slam!

IMO he is thinking about 25 GS, when he is at an outstanding 2 GS. He believes only djokovic can give hik competition and do not prepare for any of the other players. Which is causing him to lose against these players.
 

mcs1970

Hall of Fame
It's his goal, that is way too far sighted! He has to think about current slam!

IMO he is thinking about 25 GS, when he is at an outstanding 2 GS. He believes only djokovic can give hik competition and do not prepare for any of the other players. Which is causing him to lose against these players.

This makes sense if he has not played someone before or has dominated but is now suddenly failing.

That is not the case here

He is now 3-5 against Zverev. So there is.no way he is too confident or taking him lightly.
 

The Blond Blur

G.O.A.T.
he is not arrogant. just too overconfident
theyre-the-same-picture-the-office.gif
 

Razer

Legend
Alcaraz is not arrogant. He is just a youngster who is naïve on tour and yet to gain maturity, so his overconfidence is not something which is arrogance, it is just childishness. He has time to get over it, Arrogance is what comes to you when you are ruling the world and start to look full of yourself, narcissistic, pompous and all that..... Alcaraz is nowhere close to that and he never established himself as the best either.... establishing as the best does not mean reaching 1, it means having a full grasp on everything, thats what Federer had in mid 2000s before Nadal taught him humility and brought him down to earth.
 

Cabeza del Demonio

Professional
I am very disappointed with his attitude. He had the world at his feet and has unreal talent but he has gone backwards since wimbledon and seems to lack the desire and heart to scrap in rallies and seems more interested in playing up to the crowd than playing winning tennis that at times can be boring to watch but effective.
We saw this arrogance against medvedev in the uso where he took liberties with medvedev as if he was a club player and he did the same today with zverev, even his pre match comments were disrespectful.
the blsme is with alcaraz coaching team. Somebody needs to grab him by the throat and give his some home truths. way too much showbosting and if he doesnt get a grip he will be the greatest unfulfilled talent ever as he should be winning calendar slams with his talent. But so could alot of other players in the past but what separates the great from ATGs is heart desire and a willingness to die on court. Not seeing that mentality from alcaraz.
Toni nadal would be the perfect coach for him. Has been awful for FAA but for Alcaraz he would deal with that arrogance
I wonder if it's as much arrogance as it is complacency. He's been an exuberant guy his whole career, I wonder if it's the same problem Nadal had in 2009 - so used to being the underdog and chasing the old guard, but couldn'y adjust to the pressure of being #1 just yet.
 

tex123

Hall of Fame
Do you think Alcaraz is a bust? He been on tour for 4 years, with 12 career titles including two Slams and reached a ranking No.1 I don't need to beat a drum; the kid has proven he's not a journeyman scratching out a career.
6 months is a long time in tennis like a week is a long time in politics. He's on a 9 tournament losing streak - 0 wins since W.

Stop with the no 1 ranking. Embarrassment of his life to be given no 1 by Djokovic only to lose all tournaments and hand it back promptly to his master at the ATP finals.

His only slim chance is W this year as his game works there. Possibly French.

Again. How long will you beat that drum? Till he wins another in like 6 months and say 'I told you so'

I'm sorry. He's in a slump. The phenomenon is in a slump. His game does not work on HC. Or the opponents have figured him out.
 

tex123

Hall of Fame
Justice Henin on Carlos' loss:

_____
"Today, he's fallen into the same trap. When he can't develop his creativity, when things don't go his way, he loses himself tactically.

"Carlos Alcaraz still has a lot of learning to do. He won this third set thanks to a minor miracle, as Zverev tightened up a little.

"At that point, you wondered whether he was going to find the right structure to turn things around for him. That's what he's been lacking: stability and precision."
______

This is with all the on court coaching and mentoring by former world no 1. When will he learn?

I think he needs Moya.
 

FeroBango

Hall of Fame
His fans are even worse SMH
If anything I see a barrage of anti-Alcaraz posts from the anti-fans of Alcaraz. There's very minimal posting on his defense for their supposed arrogance to be "worse" than many things going on here. Who exactly is the fan you're referring to? AlcarazWon, the lone poster?


I reiterate that he has very little fans here and most fans are merely anti-Djokovic followers of the sport who'll jump from Alcaraz to whoever the next supposed threat to Djokovic is.
 
And his very poor backhand. It’s not a good shot at the top level.
GB4mM--XMAAdjKJ

i have my qualms with these shot quality metrics but they're not wrong on the general point - Alcaraz has a very good backhand by tour standards, not very poor
Not enough spin.
u1cps3rmdoi91.png

(for newer albeit very similar numbers for the relevant players: https://preview.redd.it/rh0qq3q0k7p...bp&s=a7d426944c12615a7c5d0b3bab0f9f3fafb14f16)
Alcaraz's (and Rublev's, for that matter) problem isn't spin - they're actually higher than many elite 2hbhs like Schwartzman, Djokovic, RBA, and Medvedev. Alcaraz's technique allows him to play aggressively off higher and/or slower balls (thus the decent results against Medvedev in bh exchanges), and he can hit very good shots down the line (even with slightly inside-out spin), but he can't consistently maintain depth and width in neutral cross-court trades and he can't defend very well with drives off that wing. imo, some additional factors are defensive footwork issues that also show up on his moving forehand, and his ambivalence about hunting forehands on hard courts, so he gives opponents more angles to hurt him in the ad court. you don't have to agree with Zoid's theses about control and technique (though they're fairly convincing), but it seems pretty clear from an eye test that something is funky about Alcaraz's backhand technique and that makes him somewhat unreliable
The forehand looks like the shot that needs more improvement, and he can be rushed easily from that side. He was spraying them left, right and center. The Wilander jinx works once again. Greatest forehand of all time couldn't find the court a lot of the time in this match.
yeah right now his issue is that he doesn't have elite rally consistency with his forehand on the move/against depth because of his slightly inverted setup, but his shotmaking is also not fully developed in its use of angles and measured pace, so he's a jack of all trades without being enough of a master of anything (vs Djokovic or Tsitsipas), and he can spend a bit too much time donating errors

extrapolating from these comments, i tend to think that Alcaraz's forehand can lose its range on 1st returns (see Toronto & Cincinnati '23) and both his strokes can be inconsistent at getting returns in play, particularly against 2nd serves (his glaring weakness in match charting return stats). but when he's on (and it's more than often enough) he's just so clearly an ATG returner
But I thought Carloth is basically peak big 3 fused together? :unsure:
he's Laver, Connors, and Federer fused together, actually
Arrogance may not be the right word, but I agree that his shot selection is **** poor.
it's funny how people can agree with this obvious fact and not realize he hasn't peaked yet. his most dominant win at a major against a credible opponent was against Tsitsipas in RG '23 and he still lost focus in the 3rd set in the process! he beat Djokovic in a Wimbledon final while donating a set and a half lead!
His flashy game works when he’s on form. But if he’s even 10% off, those flashy shots fail and he loses a lot of free points.
would have to be very generous to say this Alcaraz was only 10% off, and he's plenty capable of ugly wins. he just couldn't rein himself back in to any sort of winning level in this Zverev match
We've seen it time and again, that big grin and finger wagging happens when he wins a point doing all kinds of crazy, superhuman things -- it's what he loves to do. Unless someone is able to convince him that breaking back, winning a game, set, match, etc. is more important and more joyful, I'm not sure he is going to change his style of play / shot selection.
definitely agree that his playstyle is an unbridled expression of joy and that its core is unlikely to change. i do think he can manage a bunch of improvements without changing who he is as a person and player though: more strategic discipline (dominating is fun!), resilience to dips in form, and experience dealing with the pressure of expectations
 
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TheSlicer

Professional
Nah, Novak has been hyping Carlos almost as much as I have in the press. Especially leading up to RG and Wimbledon he was talking about how he’s the next great thing, as good as anyone he’s ever played, will win all these slams.

Like after Cincy he was saying that was the toughest match of his career etc.

He has definitely made a concerted effort to hype Carlos and get in his head that he’s the one. He doesn’t talk about the other guys that way. And it worked.
I dont think that was any strategy from novak, i honestly think he meant It, the reason he doesnt Talk like that about the other guys IS because they havent had the results and the impact Carlos has had, Carlos problem is not that he is thinking about novak, Carlos problem is that he has to improve more to adapt to big rivals in different surfaces
 

weakera

Talk Tennis Guru
I don't think it's arrogance, I just think he's young and inconsistent and to say that Carlos Alcaraz of all people lacks the heart and desire in anything tennis related is complete nonsense.

he is not arrogant. just too overconfident with his completeness of his box of tricks


There are definitely shades of arrogance. He tries to tint it with humor - unlike a young Djokovic, who was more blunt - but it is there nonetheless.

His personality is nothing like Nadal's.
 

Move

Hall of Fame
GB4mM--XMAAdjKJ

i have my qualms with these shot quality metrics but they're not wrong on the general point - Alcaraz has a very good backhand by tour standards, not very poor

u1cps3rmdoi91.png

(for newer albeit very similar numbers for the relevant players: https://preview.redd.it/rh0qq3q0k7p...bp&s=a7d426944c12615a7c5d0b3bab0f9f3fafb14f16)
Alcaraz's (and Rublev's, for that matter) problem isn't spin - they're actually higher than many elite 2hbhs like Schwartzman, Djokovic, RBA, and Medvedev. Alcaraz's technique allows him to play aggressively off higher and/or slower balls (thus the decent results against Medvedev in bh exchanges), and he can hit very good shots down the line (even with slightly inside-out spin), but he can't consistently maintain depth and width in neutral cross-court trades and he can't defend very well with drives off that wing. imo, some additional factors are defensive footwork issues that also show up on his moving forehand, and his ambivalence about hunting forehands on hard courts, so he gives opponents more angles to hurt him in the ad court. you don't have to agree with Zoid's theses about control and technique (though they're fairly convincing), but it seems pretty clear from an eye test that something is funky about Alcaraz's backhand technique and that makes him somewhat unreliable

yeah right now his issue is that he doesn't have elite rally consistency with his forehand on the move/against depth because of his slightly inverted setup, but his shotmaking is also not fully developed in its use of angles and measured pace, so he's a jack of all trades without being enough of a master of anything (vs Djokovic or Tsitsipas), and he can spend a bit too much time donating errors

extrapolating from these comments, i tend to think that Alcaraz's forehand can lose its range on 1st returns (see Toronto & Cincinnati '23) and both his strokes can be inconsistent at getting returns in play, particularly against 2nd serves (his glaring weakness in match charting return stats). but when he's on (and it's more than often enough) he's just so clearly an ATG returner

he's Laver, Connors, and Federer fused together, actually

it's funny how people can agree with this obvious fact and not realize he hasn't peaked yet. his most dominant win at a major against a credible opponent was against Tsitsipas in RG '23 and he still lost focus in the 3rd set in the process! he beat Djokovic in a Wimbledon final while donating a set and a half lead!

would have to be very generous to say this Alcaraz was only 10% off, and he's plenty capable of ugly wins. he just couldn't rein himself back in to any sort of winning level in this Zverev match

definitely agree that his playstyle is an unbridled expression of joy and that its core is unlikely to change. i do think he can manage a bunch of improvements without changing who he is as a person and player though: more strategic discipline (dominating is fun!), resilience to dips in form, and experience dealing with the pressure of expectations
Thank you so much for this analysis, great read
 

TheSlicer

Professional
GB4mM--XMAAdjKJ

i have my qualms with these shot quality metrics but they're not wrong on the general point - Alcaraz has a very good backhand by tour standards, not very poor

u1cps3rmdoi91.png

(for newer albeit very similar numbers for the relevant players: https://preview.redd.it/rh0qq3q0k7p...bp&s=a7d426944c12615a7c5d0b3bab0f9f3fafb14f16)
Alcaraz's (and Rublev's, for that matter) problem isn't spin - they're actually higher than many elite 2hbhs like Schwartzman, Djokovic, RBA, and Medvedev. Alcaraz's technique allows him to play aggressively off higher and/or slower balls (thus the decent results against Medvedev in bh exchanges), and he can hit very good shots down the line (even with slightly inside-out spin), but he can't consistently maintain depth and width in neutral cross-court trades and he can't defend very well with drives off that wing. imo, some additional factors are defensive footwork issues that also show up on his moving forehand, and his ambivalence about hunting forehands on hard courts, so he gives opponents more angles to hurt him in the ad court. you don't have to agree with Zoid's theses about control and technique (though they're fairly convincing), but it seems pretty clear from an eye test that something is funky about Alcaraz's backhand technique and that makes him somewhat unreliable

yeah right now his issue is that he doesn't have elite rally consistency with his forehand on the move/against depth because of his slightly inverted setup, but his shotmaking is also not fully developed in its use of angles and measured pace, so he's a jack of all trades without being enough of a master of anything (vs Djokovic or Tsitsipas), and he can spend a bit too much time donating errors

extrapolating from these comments, i tend to think that Alcaraz's forehand can lose its range on 1st returns (see Toronto & Cincinnati '23) and both his strokes can be inconsistent at getting returns in play, particularly against 2nd serves (his glaring weakness in match charting return stats). but when he's on (and it's more than often enough) he's just so clearly an ATG returner

he's Laver, Connors, and Federer fused together, actually

it's funny how people can agree with this obvious fact and not realize he hasn't peaked yet. his most dominant win at a major against a credible opponent was against Tsitsipas in RG '23 and he still lost focus in the 3rd set in the process! he beat Djokovic in a Wimbledon final while donating a set and a half lead!

would have to be very generous to say this Alcaraz was only 10% off, and he's plenty capable of ugly wins. he just couldn't rein himself back in to any sort of winning level in this Zverev match

definitely agree that his playstyle is an unbridled expression of joy and that its core is unlikely to change. i do think he can manage a bunch of improvements without changing who he is as a person and player though: more strategic discipline (dominating is fun!), resilience to dips in form, and experience dealing with the pressure of expectations
Trying to provide facts? Are you crazy? Lol
 

pirhaksar

Professional
If anything I see a barrage of anti-Alcaraz posts from the anti-fans of Alcaraz. There's very minimal posting on his defense for their supposed arrogance to be "worse" than many things going on here. Who exactly is the fan you're referring to? AlcarazWon, the lone poster?


I reiterate that he has very little fans here and most fans are merely anti-Djokovic followers of the sport who'll jump from Alcaraz to whoever the next supposed threat to Djokovic is.
Bingo! I don’t know how many fans he has but the ones cussing him here are more for whoever can stop Djokovic.
 

Eureka

Professional
.....................definitely agree that his playstyle is an unbridled expression of joy and that its core is unlikely to change. i do think he can manage a bunch of improvements without changing who he is as a person and player though: more strategic discipline (dominating is fun!), resilience to dips in form, and experience dealing with the pressure of expectations
Really enjoyed your comments - just quoting this part to avoid repetition but also because it resonates with my take on how Carlos might adapt to improve without compromising his natural instincts. Thanks for your input that worth logging on for.

His game will mature over time as he matures humanly. I’d say he’s pretty down to earth for a 20 year old who has already won two slams. He has a great team and carries himself with a positive attitude, even when he loses. I’ve never detected arrogance from him, and nobody on tour has ever accused him of being arrogant. Rune, on the other hand …
Well said, regarding Carlos. He has just won the award voted for by fellow players, and is generally spoken of as nice kid.
 

NeutralFan

G.O.A.T.
This is a guy who went toe to toe in baseline rallies with Novak at both Wimbledon and at Cincy. Anyone who can do that doesn’t really have any glaring stroke weakness despite what ttw warriors want to say.

The issue for Carlos is always going to be the same. He doesn’t win many easy points. He doesn’t have a serve that can do that or one stroke that has put away power. Contrast that to Sinner who has easy power or Z today whose serve was humming.

I am not saying he is not more talented than Z or Sinnwr but always having to play hard and never get easy points is mentally draining. That’s why he goes for a lot of drop shots. One might think it is arrogance or him treating his opponent like a club player, but IMO he is doing it because he wants some easier and quicker points and is willing to take the risk that he loses those points. He knows the alternative of going though long rallies each time is not sustainable for him.

@Kralingen do you agree with this analysis?
 
You're wrong. He does scrap in rallies. His problem is his own arrogance where he thinks he's Federer/Nadal/Djokovic and can hit anything at will:

- Passing shots
- Drop volleys
- Running forehands/backhands

His backhand technique is very bad for a number one player. The left hand doesn't move at all.
Agreed.
He doesn't have the physique nor the groundstroke prowess necessary to consistently achieve big 3 level shotmaking, especially Rafa level.
Despite having Big 3-tier movement, when he runs around his backhand to hit backfoot pivot forehands, he lacks the margin of error afforded by Rafa's forehand technique.

He has this insidious gap between who he think he is and who he actually is that could lead him to push himself too far physically.
 
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