What are Djokovic's chances of winning USO at this mid way point?

[dr325i]

Djokovic is not playing well, end of story. We shall see what transpires but let’s get that on paper. Not a sh-t or a disastrous level but a poor one for his standards, no doubt.

So far he played: careful, just enough necessary to win (not flashy) and trying things since he had no warmup prior to the tournament.
First 4 rounds were extended trainings.
Now, we will see where he stands, from here on

 

[TTMR]

Djokovic is not playing well, end of story. We shall see what transpires but let’s get that on paper. Not a sh-t or a disastrous level but a poor one for his standards, no doubt.

Not sure how anyone can watch tennis the last fifteen years and not realize that form in early rounds or against inferior players doesn't matter. He will play up to his eventual opponents when he faces them.

 

[GabeT]

Djokovic is not playing well, end of story. We shall see what transpires but let’s get that on paper. Not a sh-t or a disastrous level but a poor one for his standards, no doubt.

he’s lost 3 sets so far but outside of those sets (meaning the 12 sets he won so far) he hasn’t been taken beyond 6-3. Of the 12 sets he won he won:
6-1 three times
6-2 six times
6-3 three times

this indicates a Novak that loses focus for a set per match but otherwise dominates the competition

 

[Bubcay]

Berrettini-Zverev-Medvedev is genuinely the hardest possible QF-SF-F possible, at this juncture. He isn’t just going to walk to the title with the form both the -evs are in.

Tough one for sure. QF and potential Semis are much tougher for him than for Medvedev.

 

[EllieK]

I really would like to see someone else win it just because tennis needs a new slam winner. Djokovic is not my favourite but I concede that he is the best player. On one hand it would be a good thing to see history made with #21 and a CYGS, on the other hand it would be a good thing to see someone new lift the trophy. A young person could bring some more youth to tennis and seriously it is just downright embarrassing that no one under 30 can take this man out in a GS. I’m still rooting for Meddy but I’m not stupid enough to believe 100% that he will win it. I still have the pain of AO in the back of my mind. Staying up half the night and watching Daniil get his bum whipped.

 

[flanker2000fr]

Then call me a fool cause I’ll bet the house on Novak over Matt.
The chances of Novak winning these next 3 are slim? Good thing you don’t work for Vegas, cause I’d love to bet with the odds you’re paying

So you're one of these people who gamble on tennis, and then hurl abuse at players on social media when he's lost his house?

 

[SteffiGoat]

Medvedev - 45%
Novak - 35%
Zverev - 19%

The rest - 1%

After watching Djoker again today, here is my updated current favourite:

Medvedev: 50%
Novak: 25%
Zverev: 22%

The rest: 3%

 

[Kralingen]

he’s lost 3 sets so far but outside of those sets (meaning the 12 sets he won so far) he hasn’t been taken beyond 6-3. Of the 12 sets he won he won:
6-1 three times
6-2 six times
6-3 three times

this indicates a Novak that loses focus for a set per match but otherwise dominates the competition

So far he played: careful, just enough necessary to win (not flashy) and trying things since he had no warmup prior to the tournament.
First 4 rounds were extended trainings.
Now, we will see where he stands, from here on

Not sure how anyone can watch tennis the last fifteen years and not realize that form in early rounds or against inferior players doesn't matter. He will play up to his eventual opponents when he faces them.

As an empirical observation it’s undeniable though. Is a player with more UEs than winners until midway through the 4th set playing well? He put on a putrid, awful display in the first set. Let’s not put lipstick on a pig.

Of course he will turn it around and has a history of raising his level but this has not been what anyone would call a high level.

 

[Deleted member 762343]

He needs StrongRule to come back.

He isn't the favorite anymore IMO. Beating Berrettini, Zverev and Med in a row? Will be hard to pull off.

And yet if he pulls it off, Fedal fanatics will cry weak era.

 

[Service Ace]

The chances he will beat all 3 of them in a row by playing the way he has so far are slim. He'd have to improve his level of play a lot. Zverev and Medvedev just won a Masters 1000 each, and are playing well. And only a fool would discount Berretini on a fast surface if he's playing hot on a day.

Please don't gas up next gen. It's old hat, we've heard it 1000 times before but the ending is always the same. Spare us.

 

[Service Ace]

He needs StrongRule to come back.



And yet if he pulls it off, Fedal fanatics will cry weak era.

Lol at jumping on the first comment to hype up these choking mugs in true unpopularovic fan fashion.

 

[ForLoveOfTheGame]

Berrettini-Zverev-Medvedev is genuinely the hardest possible QF-SF-F possible, at this juncture. He isn’t just going to walk to the title with the form both the -evs are in.

Berrettini? Are you kidding me? Want to throw in any WTA players while you're at it? Novak will have no trouble making it to the final.

 

[Kralingen]

Berrettini? Are you kidding me? Want to throw in any WTA players while you're at it? Novak will have no trouble making it to the final.

Name 3 tougher players who are healthy?

 

[ForLoveOfTheGame]

About as big a lock for a slam title as you can get outside of peak Nadal at the French. His opponent tonight is a nobody with zero weapons. Berrettini is the type to give him a couple tough sets, but his game won’t ever hold up over a full best-of-five match against the likes of Novak. Zverev has never beaten a top ten player at a slam, nor been very close to beating Novak at a slam. Med’s the biggest threat, but fortunately for Djokovic they can only meet in the final, and we saw what happened in Australia.

Seriously, he will not face a single slam champion in this tournament. How much more of a lock does he need. The only way Novak loses this tournament is if he gets hit by a car on the way to the stadium and even that probably wouldn't stop him. So sick of people hyping up this tournament as if it's anything other than the Novak Djokovic show. He won't be taken to even 5 sets with the caliber of players left in this tournament.

 

[GabeT]

As an empirical observation it’s undeniable though. Is a player with more UEs than winners until midway through the 4th set playing well? He put on a putrid, awful display in the first set. Let’s not put lipstick on a pig.

Of course he will turn it around and has a history of raising his level but this has not been what anyone would call a high level.

The W/UE stat always struck me as a bit of a nonsense measure. i never look at that. In any case Novak had almost similar W/UEs in the 2nd set (14 to 16) and it only improved from there.

what matters to me is first and foremost the end results which you can break down by set. And then break opportunities for each.

what the data shows is that he was in command after the first set and never lost that edge. So yes, he played well. that doesn’t mean he won’t lose at some point or that he has the title won already. It just means he has generally dominated all his matches save for the 1 set per match mental walkabouts

 

[Deleted member 762343]

Lol at jumping on the first comment to hype up these choking mugs in true unpopularovic fan fashion.

NO EXCUSES!

 

[Tennisbg]

Zverev and Medvedev look like the better players. But if Djokovic can raise his level as usual(at slams) he has chances. This slam won't be easy.

 

[Deleted member 762343]

Zverev and Medvedev look like the better players. But if Djokovic can raise his level as usual(at slams) he has chances. This slam won't be easy.

That’s the thing though, they always look like the better players in early rounds. Medvedev looked like the better player at AO and he received a straight set beatdown.

 

[Tennisbg]

That’s the thing though, they always look like the better players in early rounds. Medvedev looked like the better player at AO and he received a straight set beatdown.

This time it looks different, they are advancing without getting tired. Usually Zverev plays two 5 setters before semis. Medvedev - even easier. I predict Djokovic won't win this slam. I am so sure.

 

[Djokodal Fan]

If Djokovic plays at the same level as his first 4 rounds, he won’t even get past QF against beretinni, let alone Zverev.

He has to play considerably better eat have a fair shot. Not sure really sure if this due to rust or lack of match play. But djoker doesnt look convincing to me to say the least

 

[Born_to_slice]

Looks grim for now but we will see. He has spent too much time on court in the first 4 rounds and Med/Zverev are winning their matches effortlessly. If he raises his level substantially, namely his return and his own 2nd serve %, he'll have a chance.

 

[MichaelNadal]

 

[platypus50]

I still pick him to win the US Open this year, he's still the man to beat in a BO5 match.

Zverev needs to prove that he can win against a top 10 player in a slam with his 0-9 record, whilst Medvedev will be keen to try and avenge his straight sets thrashing by Djokovic in the Aus Open final this year.

Looking ahead to seeing how Zverev plays against Djokovic if that SF match-up does end up happening.

 

[Krish0608]

Djokovic looks “tired” to my eyes. Have been fooled several times in the past, so not gonna fall for it. Medvedev has been the most impressive player by far. Solid, dependable and clinical. Playing like a champion, I dare say. And he seems more at home on these courts than any other grand slam court

 

[junior74]

97% even with no access to the God mode.

 

[TennisFan3]

Djokovic looks “tired” to my eyes. Have been fooled several times in the past, so not gonna fall for it. Medvedev has been the most impressive player by far. Solid, dependable and clinical. Playing like a champion, I dare say. And he seems more at home on these courts than any other grand slam court

And yet Medvedev will lose in STRAIGHT SETS to Novak. He just does NOT have the weapons. I guess you missed the AO 2021 Final, Med was on fire that tournament.
In USOpen 2020 - Med also did NOT lose a set until the SF and looked on FIRE. But then he lost 3 STRAIGHT SETS to Thiem.

Moral of the story: Med is susceptible to any red-hot player playing his A game. He is the LEAST likely to win the Championship.

 

[Cheese&IPA]

The only player who may give him a game is Zverev, he will beat everyone else no problem and I only say Zverev because of the run he is on and the fact he beat Djokovic at the Olympics, in short he is about 90% certain to win it.

 

[Adv. Edberg]

Fedal 0%, Djoko 98% and the field 2%

 

[Adv. Edberg]

he’s lost 3 sets so far but outside of those sets (meaning the 12 sets he won so far) he hasn’t been taken beyond 6-3. Of the 12 sets he won he won:
6-1 three times
6-2 six times
6-3 three times

this indicates a Novak that loses focus for a set per match but otherwise dominates the competition

yeah exactly. He just goes out slow to save himself and his body. And then if he needs to he goes up a gear and wins easily. He still hasn’t touched his top gear yet.

 

[Bubcay]

Djokovic looks “tired” to my eyes. Have been fooled several times in the past, so not gonna fall for it. Medvedev has been the most impressive player by far. Solid, dependable and clinical. Playing like a champion, I dare say. And he seems more at home on these courts than any other grand slam court

He looks tired when he is down a few games or a set. He then picks up his game somehow and looks fresher than any opponent. The longer the match goes, the better for him.

 

[Sudacafan]

I just hope Spencer Gore didn't bring him bad luck.

At least, Srsh hasn’t predicted that Nole is winning this thing (yet).

 

[toby55555]

Good that he hasn’t hit top gear early in the tournament, don’t think the Italian will worry him tomorrow but thereafter he will have to be at his best.

 

[paolo2143]

Let's be honest to win he is going to have to beat Berrettini who will be out for revenge and trying to avoid 3 consecutive slam losses to Novak. If he is serving well this is a really dangerous match.

If Novak gets through this he will most likely have Zvereve who is on a great streak and has game to beat Novak if Novak is not 100%. Then Medevedev who is playing best tennis in tournament and will be so much fresher than Novak should he meet him in final.

I think when you add this to the immense pressure Novak is under to achieve CGS it is a really tall order. I think favourite is Med followed by Zverev then Novak. However if there is one player on planet who could possibly overcome all those hurdles it would be Novak.

 

[mr tonyz]

Wimbledon was absolutely a cupcake draw lol. There's Shapovalov who blew every opportunity he had in the first set and in bits of the second set. It reminds one of Federer's match with Djokovic at the 2007 US Open except I think both players were better in that one (and besides, Fed had the Roddick QF in addition to that one). Then there's Berrettini whose game is simply too one-dimensional to be a problem for a player of Novak's caliber. A low-budget Roddick if you will. It was probably the worst edition of Wimbledon as far as tennis quality goes that I've seen... ever?

AO was basically an average-level draw, probably a little below. Zverev was pretty much the only opponent who brought a level Djokovic should have actually struggled against (if you can forgive his hideous choking in that match), but Tiafoe did play above his level for that second round and I'd consider him a tough second round opponent. It's clear that Fritz would never have made it to five sets in the first place had Novak not gotten injured. And then Medvedev just gave up pretty much.

RG was actually a good draw, probably the toughest at a Slam since 2018 Wimbledon by my reckoning. Nadal was well off his best but he still played a good match overall and Tsitsipas at least had a good first two sets. Musetti and Berrettini were also decent but only for the first and second halves of their matches, respectfully.

...

 

[Curtennis]

So you're one of these people who gamble on tennis, and then hurl abuse at players on social media when he's lost his house?

How did you get from A all the way to Z from what I said? Yes I like looking into betting, don’t do it much, but if the odds seem way off I’ll dabble.

when you make the ludicrous statement of Novak being unlikely to win this thing, I’m going to point out how not a single person who’s paid to set odds agrees with you.

And, no, I don’t send death threats to anyone…

 

[Harry_Wild]

85%!

 

[Pheasant]

Berrettini is dangerous because he serves so huge. Djoker will eventually time his serves well, then starting picking in Berrettini’s back hand to win in 4.

Zverev is a very dangerous opponent in the semis. Now granted, I wouldn’t say that for the final. We saw what happened to Zverev in last year’s final. But the semi has far less pressure. Zverev can serve bombs. He can also rally well from both wings, much better than Berrettini can. The semi will be interesting. I think Djoker will need 5 to take out Zverev and it will be an epic match. If Djoker were to get upset, it would happen here. A zoning Zverev is dangerous.

If Djoker were to play Medvedev, then Med would need to hit 2 first serves. 2nd serves won’t work against Djoker. Med cannot win rallies vs Djoker. And he doesn’t have the stamina to absorb all of the body shots that Djoker will deliver. And if Medvedev doesn’t go hyper aggressive against Djoker, then he will get swept in straight sets, unless the nerves of a CYGS make Djoker gift him a free set.

 

[flanker2000fr]

How did you get from A all the way to Z from what I said? Yes I like looking into betting, don’t do it much, but if the odds seem way off I’ll dabble.

when you make the ludicrous statement of Novak being unlikely to win this thing, I’m going to point out how not a single person who’s paid to set odds agrees with you.

And, no, I don’t send death threats to anyone…

Read what I wrote again. I didn't say he was unlikely to win, I said he needs to considerably up his level of play to be able to beat Berretini, Zverev and Medvedev in a row. And I was responding to a lunatic who was saying he had 100% chance of winning the tournament, without him having shown any kind of decent form since he won Wimbledon.

 

[Deleted member 771911]

I think a lot depends on his next opponents. If all they bring to the match is the same as before, Djokovic will beat them. We know he will pay better in later rounds. If he doesn’t of course, they can beat him. But if he does then they have to bring something new in their attitude which is real passion and self belief. Grand slam champion mentality. Do they have it? I haven’t seen it yet. I don’t need to tell anyone that Djokovic has plenty of it.

 

[ForLoveOfTheGame]

Berrettini is dangerous because he serves so huge. Djoker will eventually time his serves well, then starting picking in Berrettini’s back hand to win in 4.

Zverev is a very dangerous opponent in the semis. Now granted, I wouldn’t say that for the final. We saw what happened to Zverev in last year’s final. But the semi has far less pressure. Zverev can serve bombs. He can also rally well from both wings, much better than Berrettini can. The semi will be interesting. I think Djoker will need 5 to take out Zverev and it will be an epic match. If Djoker were to get upset, it would happen here. A zoning Zverev is dangerous.

If Djoker were to play Medvedev, then Med would need to hit 2 first serves. 2nd serves won’t work against Djoker. Med cannot win rallies vs Djoker. And he doesn’t have the stamina to absorb all of the body shots that Djoker will deliver. And if Medvedev doesn’t go hyper aggressive against Djoker, then he will get swept in straight sets, unless the nerves of a CYGS make Djoker gift him a free set.

Berrettinni is dangerous? At what? Stealing your girl? Don't make me laugh.

 

[Texas Tennis Fan]

This is the difference between Novak now and in his prime in 2015-16. Then, he played dominant tennis for 2 weeks and won 5/6 Slams including 4 in a row and just about every other tournament he played. Now, he can’t play like that for 2 weeks and so he does just enough to win in the first 3-4 matches and then ramps up his level in the latter rounds. He has won 8 out of 12 Slams and rarely looked impressive throughout any of those Slams. So, this is his modus operandi right now. He will lift his level and the question is if it is enough to beat Matteo, Sascha and Med back-to-back as they are playing well too. I would not bet against him as he just beat Berrettini, Nadal and Tsitsipas at Roland Garros.

This!

 

[Texas Tennis Fan]

As someone suggested, Djoker going up against Berrettini is great because he will be facing a great server which will prepare him for the more dangerous Zverev. But it may be Harris, because Zverev didn't look all that great against Sinner, but Sinner was terrible, so Zverev didn't need to be.

Djokovic has been longer on the court, but he had not played at all for several weeks, so I don't think that it will matter. He also does this rope-a-dope approach where he feels out the opponent for the first set (he has now lost 8 times in this Slam run in the first set, I believe). Anyway, Djokovic is beatable as he has been playing, but he will come out much more serious against the next 3 opponents, all of whom he knows well (unless Harris wins).

 

[Sunny014]

Berrettinni is dangerous? At what? Stealing your girl? Don't make me laugh.

Yes thats the only thing in which Berretini is dangerous at.

Otherwise he will surrender to Novak in 4 tight sets.

 

[Kralingen]

Berrettinni is dangerous? At what? Stealing your girl? Don't make me laugh.

He's not a real threat, but Zverev and Medvedev undeniably are the other two best HC players in the world by some distance.

A cupcake draw would be Medvedev's side. Djokovic's side is far tougher than that.

 

[Sunny014]

Berretini and Dimitrov are the most dangerous at stealing your girlfriend.
In the younger days Novak too had a lot of charm but now he seems all irate and grumpy.
Guy with Least chance of stealing your girlfriend - Rafael Nadal

 

[dr325i]

As an empirical observation it’s undeniable though. Is a player with more UEs than winners until midway through the 4th set playing well? He put on a putrid, awful display in the first set. Let’s not put lipstick on a pig.

Of course he will turn it around and has a history of raising his level but this has not been what anyone would call a high level.

I do not see ANY of those you replied to saying he is playing a High Level or anything similar to that...

 

[Curtennis]

Read what I wrote again. I didn't say he was unlikely to win, I said he needs to considerably up his level of play to be able to beat Berretini, Zverev and Medvedev in a row. And I was responding to a lunatic who was saying he had 100% chance of winning the tournament, without him having shown any kind of decent form since he won Wimbledon.

Djokavic getting lucky tonight. No way this Serbian gangster should be able to win this.

 

[spottishwood]

80%

 

[BGod]

Betting line is like 80% Novak, 10% each for Zverev/Med.

Felix essentially given 1% to win it all.

 

[flanker2000fr]

Anyone saying less than 100% is only hoping that Djokovic will lose

We are expecting Berretini, Zverev or Med to beat Djoker ? LOL

How do you fancy Djokovic's 100% chances to win, now?