UnderratedSlam
G.O.A.T.
No, predicting this is impossible. Even making a prediction days before it starts is futile.
Nobody can predict a female slam winner these days, period.
The only thing we can all agree on is that Raducanu has no chance of winning. Absolutely none at all.
However, what we can do is check the stats. They might tell us at least something.
1. The last 4 slams had 8 different finalists. That is a lot, even for women's tennis. The record is 10 different finalists in 5 finals, which happened in 2013/14 and 2020/21.
So it is possible that we get another pair that we haven't had in the last 4 finals. However, the odds are somewhat higher that one of the finalists will be a repeat finalist from the last 4 slams.
On the other hand, only 6 of these 8 women are possible repeat finalists. Barty is retired, and Raducanu is of course an impossibility.
So maybe we will have two new finalists after all i.e. two that hadn't appeared in the last 4 finals.
Basically, the safest bet is Sweetek to prevent a 5-slam streak. Maybe Gauff too.
2. FIVE of the last SEVEN USO champs are first-timers.
Odds are that we get a new winner. It's USO after all. Perhaps a previous slam finalist loser?
We are due one, i.e. a loser winning a slam, statistically speaking. So perhaps Gauff or Ons? They lost slam finals this year.
Leylah?
Last time a USO finalist went on to win the next USO was... Serena in 2012. Also Henin in 2007. Serena in 2002. Graf in 1995 and 1988.
So it has been known to happen, but only by former slam champs, which Leylah isn't. Coupled with Leylah's recent injury, we can discount her as a relevant factor this time.
3. What are Rybakina's chances of winning it?
How many first-timers followed up their 1st slam with another one right away?
Only 3. Osaka, Venus and Capriati. (And Evert 1974 if we go far back into the early Open Era.)
Bizarrely enough, Venus and Capriati did it one after each other, in a row. 2000 and 2001. Osaka did it a few years ago.
So in the last 33 years, from the 39 women first-timers, 22 eventually won another slam - but only these 3 won another one immediately. 3 out of 39.
So no, Rybakina isn't winning USO 22. She might win another slam, but later on. The odds that she wins another slam are (much) better than 50% (because there's a higher % chance for younger players). It's far more likely she wins one next year.
4. What can Serena do?
Absolutely nothing. She can win one or two matches, but there is no way in hell she's winning this. Not without serious preparation and some good results in August. Serena is like the empress with no clothes, nobody dares tell her that she can't win a slam while treating tennis as a hobby, basically. She believes she can do magic, but she will find out that she's no Nadal...
5. Who will definitely disappoint?
Kontaveit, Sakkari, Pliskova, Muguruza will all lose early. Certainly R4 is their maximum.
Halep's worst slam, by far, so she might also lose early. She probably doesn't enjoy the rowdy atmosphere...
6. Who will do very well?
Bencic has by far her best slam results at USO, but nothing more than a QF is realistic. She will never win a slam, very unlikely.
Krejcikova, Sabalenka, Gauff might go far. I don't expect Krejcikova to win another slam though, so SF is her limit. Sabalenka is obviously a loose cannon hence totally unpredictable. She could win USO without losing a set or she could lose in the 3rd round to an unknown player.
If Q Zheng gets a better draw this time (lost W and FO in R3 and R4 to eventual champs) she can go all the way to the semis or even final.
So far that's all I got. If I find any more useful stats I'll add them here.
Nobody can predict a female slam winner these days, period.
The only thing we can all agree on is that Raducanu has no chance of winning. Absolutely none at all.
However, what we can do is check the stats. They might tell us at least something.
1. The last 4 slams had 8 different finalists. That is a lot, even for women's tennis. The record is 10 different finalists in 5 finals, which happened in 2013/14 and 2020/21.
So it is possible that we get another pair that we haven't had in the last 4 finals. However, the odds are somewhat higher that one of the finalists will be a repeat finalist from the last 4 slams.
On the other hand, only 6 of these 8 women are possible repeat finalists. Barty is retired, and Raducanu is of course an impossibility.
So maybe we will have two new finalists after all i.e. two that hadn't appeared in the last 4 finals.
Basically, the safest bet is Sweetek to prevent a 5-slam streak. Maybe Gauff too.
2. FIVE of the last SEVEN USO champs are first-timers.
Odds are that we get a new winner. It's USO after all. Perhaps a previous slam finalist loser?
We are due one, i.e. a loser winning a slam, statistically speaking. So perhaps Gauff or Ons? They lost slam finals this year.
Leylah?
Last time a USO finalist went on to win the next USO was... Serena in 2012. Also Henin in 2007. Serena in 2002. Graf in 1995 and 1988.
So it has been known to happen, but only by former slam champs, which Leylah isn't. Coupled with Leylah's recent injury, we can discount her as a relevant factor this time.
3. What are Rybakina's chances of winning it?
How many first-timers followed up their 1st slam with another one right away?
Only 3. Osaka, Venus and Capriati. (And Evert 1974 if we go far back into the early Open Era.)
Bizarrely enough, Venus and Capriati did it one after each other, in a row. 2000 and 2001. Osaka did it a few years ago.
So in the last 33 years, from the 39 women first-timers, 22 eventually won another slam - but only these 3 won another one immediately. 3 out of 39.
So no, Rybakina isn't winning USO 22. She might win another slam, but later on. The odds that she wins another slam are (much) better than 50% (because there's a higher % chance for younger players). It's far more likely she wins one next year.
4. What can Serena do?
Absolutely nothing. She can win one or two matches, but there is no way in hell she's winning this. Not without serious preparation and some good results in August. Serena is like the empress with no clothes, nobody dares tell her that she can't win a slam while treating tennis as a hobby, basically. She believes she can do magic, but she will find out that she's no Nadal...
5. Who will definitely disappoint?
Kontaveit, Sakkari, Pliskova, Muguruza will all lose early. Certainly R4 is their maximum.
Halep's worst slam, by far, so she might also lose early. She probably doesn't enjoy the rowdy atmosphere...
6. Who will do very well?
Bencic has by far her best slam results at USO, but nothing more than a QF is realistic. She will never win a slam, very unlikely.
Krejcikova, Sabalenka, Gauff might go far. I don't expect Krejcikova to win another slam though, so SF is her limit. Sabalenka is obviously a loose cannon hence totally unpredictable. She could win USO without losing a set or she could lose in the 3rd round to an unknown player.
If Q Zheng gets a better draw this time (lost W and FO in R3 and R4 to eventual champs) she can go all the way to the semis or even final.
So far that's all I got. If I find any more useful stats I'll add them here.
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