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DeathStrike
Guest
I wonder how things would have ended up before Steffi's 'fan' did his dirty work, would Seles have come out on top or Graf
Dolgopolov85
G.O.A.T.
As their careers ended, clearly Graf was better. And even if we froze careers at AO 93, not only did Graf have more slams, albeit barely, but she also had THE grand slam. Seles had only made one Wimbledon final at that point, which she lost heavily...to Graf.
If you're talking about the rivalry, I would break it down year by year.
89 - Baby Seles, so I will ignore the Graf wins as not saying anything either way.
90 - Graf, or rather her father, was in the thick of the blackmail scandal, so this may have impacted her performance at Berlin and RG. Even if they didn't...
91 - How do you square 90 with 91 where Graf had an overall underwhelming year at the slams with her worst finish in a long time at AO and RG but beat Seles in both their meetings that year?
92- Even stevens but with Graf losing narrowly and Seles getting thumped
93 - Not as close as RG but a tough loss nevertheless. And the perfect match to leave us with an asterisk because Seles hit upon patterns of play that could have bothered Graf going ahead. If Graf intended to change in response, there was no evidence as of the stabbing. And unfortunately they didn't meet at all in the tournaments in the middle.
Hence, it looks as if Seles may have pulled ahead in the rivalry and as a result won more slams in 93-94, but it's overall way too complicated to fit into the simplistic hypothetical arguments often trotted out over this issue.
If you're talking about the rivalry, I would break it down year by year.
89 - Baby Seles, so I will ignore the Graf wins as not saying anything either way.
90 - Graf, or rather her father, was in the thick of the blackmail scandal, so this may have impacted her performance at Berlin and RG. Even if they didn't...
91 - How do you square 90 with 91 where Graf had an overall underwhelming year at the slams with her worst finish in a long time at AO and RG but beat Seles in both their meetings that year?
92- Even stevens but with Graf losing narrowly and Seles getting thumped
93 - Not as close as RG but a tough loss nevertheless. And the perfect match to leave us with an asterisk because Seles hit upon patterns of play that could have bothered Graf going ahead. If Graf intended to change in response, there was no evidence as of the stabbing. And unfortunately they didn't meet at all in the tournaments in the middle.
Hence, it looks as if Seles may have pulled ahead in the rivalry and as a result won more slams in 93-94, but it's overall way too complicated to fit into the simplistic hypothetical arguments often trotted out over this issue.
skaj
Legend
It was strongly affected by the stabbing trauma though.
Fedinkum
Legend
I read her bio. I think at some point, it would had happened anyway when her dad passed away, regardless of the stabbing. The stabbing might had accelerated her mental disorder of her self image at the time. I think those girls were really too young to cope with the pressure and burnt out at that high level.
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DeathStrike
Guest
skaj
Legend
That young girl was one of the mentally strongest tennis players ever. She did not burn out, she played for years after the stabbing, she was just fat and unfit(because of the disorder). Her father's health worsened in late 1996, Graf won one slam after that, barely.
There's the patterns of play you note in the 1993 Australian Open matchup, but there was also Seles's serve. Above you ask about the 1991 matches, and it was Seles's serve that let her down, especially in their showdown in San Antonio. Seles was actually up 2 breaks in the first set at 4-1 before her serve broke down and Graf was able to break her three straight times (starting with a forehand winner off a weak Seles serve to get to 4-2).
I don't see that happening with the serve Seles developed in late 1992-early 1993. IMO, other than on grass, Seles was already better than Seles off the ground starting in 1990, but the huge serve disparity allowed Graf to close that gap. But, by the 1993 Australian Open, Seles's serve had shifted from a liability to a weapon, which would have made life very tough for Graf going forward.
Dolgopolov85
G.O.A.T.
Agreed that Seles' serve improved. But did it improve to a point where Graf would not have been able to cope with her serve, even with adjustments? Of that I am not sure.
If it interests you, I wrote a big-ass analysis of the tactical ins and outs of the match (which I do think is one of the most interesting on the WTA side, especially for Seles' late second set adjustment that was decisive).
https://rothrocks.wordpress.com/202...om-the-australian-open-1993-final-graf-seles/
Graf had finally started adjusting her return in the penultimate game of the match by going for the corners with her slice rather than down the middle which was easy pickings for Seles. But it was too late in the match then and when Graf failed to break, she got disheartened and gave up completely on her service game (the last game of the match). But who knows, if given time, she would not have worked those patterns into her regular returning against Seles. While I lean towards Graf remaining as inflexible as we generally found her to be through the 90s (except '99 when she belatedly began to play brilliantly from a tactical perspective), I cannot rule it out from an objective perspective that maybe the threat of Seles overtaking her in slams would have finally forced Graf to banish her demons and use her head more on the court. I am sure even after that match, her father and her coach would have had a few words to say about her legendary impatience asserting itself at costly moments in the match.
Great breakdown. I think Graf would have made adjustments to Seles's serve, but I also think that Seles didn't need to have her serve overwhelm Graf. She just needed to have a serve that was good enough to start most points at neutral rather than being immediately on the defensive.
And I think what we saw in the AO 93 final with Seles stepping in and taking the ball earlier was the perfect set up for the next phase in Seles's game, which was coming into net more. She actually came in a decent amount on the SF against Sabatini but less so against Graf in the final. I don't think she quite trusted her net game against Steffi at that point, but, after another 6-12 months, I think she would have had more confidence and a stronger net game.
bjsnider
Hall of Fame
I don't know what the numbers say, but my memory from the time is that Seles' game was much too powerful for anyone in those days. She had underlying psychological issues that came out later and hindered her long term results, but her best game was better than Graf or anybody else.
Dolgopolov85
G.O.A.T.
The big asterisk is it took her till 95-96 to finally stop getting mentally hamstrung in tough matches. She was prone to letting umpiring errors or her own mistakes infuriate her so much as to lose momentum. And she could keep brooding over that mistake for a surprisingly long time (for someone who won so many slams). In this AO 93 match, after she blew that easy forehand in the 2-3 game in the third set to surrender the break, she played the next two points on Seles' serve pretty badly (esp the return on the second point). She regrouped thereafter and fought back valiantly but had she composed herself sooner, she MAY have got back the break or at least given herself a better chance. At that stage, Seles was much better at shutting a bad point out of her mind and carrying on.
So, one of two things would have happened. This mental fragility would have allowed Seles to bully Graf through 93-94 after which Graf finally set her house in order. But there's no saying if Graf would still win 6 of 8 slams in those two years if Seles was still playing great tennis. The other possibility is worse, that the 95-96 second wind never happens because Graf gets disheartened with Seles pulling ahead of her.
In either event, what is unlikely albeit not impossible is Graf regroups quickly enough to remain ahead of Seles even by end of 94. You can always turn around today and say how can you rule that out (which is why I didn't rule it out either). But just going by the trajectory of Graf's career at that point, it didn't look as if she was mounting a strong comeback as of the stabbing. If anything, the Miami final suggested a possible lapse into '91 like poor form.
bluetrain4
G.O.A.T.
I'm a Seles fan, but I'd say Graf was better. But, pre-stabbing Seles could genuinely trouble Graf; could legitimately beat her - no qualifiers or caveats. She could "bother" Graf, make her think about it, make her press. That's a lot considering how great Graf is. One of the most disappointing aspects of tennis history. Would have loved to have seen Seles' career play out without the stabbing.
Dolgopolov85
G.O.A.T.
Yeah, the rivalry was really on the cusp after the three slam bouts of 92-93. It was like, Seles had peaked and Graf had also settled down and put her personal issues past her at least for the time being. The rivalry at that point was going against Graf but only slightly. Not like she was getting thumped by Seles. And as you said, the only player who could bother her and maybe even beat her when she was at her best. But we never got to see how Graf would have handled this sort of challenge that she was not used to.
skaj
Legend
Also, she was mentally tougher than anyone else.
That sounds about right to me. I personally have Seles with 1 more Major than Graf w/out the stabbing, but there's a range of possibilities that could have favored Seles or Graf.
Phoenix1983
G.O.A.T.
I don't agree that she was "clearly getting better" - she was at her very peak, or close to it, given that she'd won 7 of the last 9 slams played. Unless you are suggesting she would have won the CYGS every year from then on?
I'm not saying that her results would have improved. I'm saying that, at the time of the stabbing, her serve was markedly improving and her net game and willingness to come to the net when she had the upper hand in a point were gradually improving. The first 1:39 of this video of her destruction of Sabatini in the SF is a good demonstration of these developments you wouldn't have seen in her game the year before:
Phoenix1983
G.O.A.T.
Interesting, I wasn't watching tennis at the time so wasn't aware of these developments in Seles' game (I only knew her at the tail end of her career, post-stabbing).
Do you think that the Seles-Graf rivalry at Wimbledon would have played out similar to that between Nadal and Federer, i.e. a fairly comprehensive defeat (1992/2006), followed by a narrow one (1993/2007), followed by the eventual usurpation of their rival on their favourite surface (1994/2008 - assuming in this alternate reality that Graf gets to the final in 1994, of course). My understanding is that grass was Seles' weakest surface, but from the improvements you state she was making, it would seem that her grass game might have improved year-on-year.
I don't think so. She wasn't fast/athletic enough to be a great grass court player.
Her two-handed forehand in particular suffered from the low bouncing grass.
And the topspin angles she created off both sides were nullified on the grass vs. being accentuated on Rebound Ace and clay.
I think her improvements would have helped her a lot at the U.S. Open against Graf and they would have helped her somewhat at Wimbledon, but not enough to close the gap.
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DeathStrike
Guest
Thanks for this really enjoyed that, both great players!
Dolgopolov85
G.O.A.T.
To add to what buscemi said, neither would Seles threaten Graf at Wimbledon to the same level as Nadal did Fed, nor would Graf show the same flexibility in countering Seles wherever she did get cornered.
Nadal was like combining the movement and forehand (but with lots more spin) of Graf and the backhand of Seles. Fed didn't have the athleticism advantage over Nadal that Graf did over Seles. OTOH he always did come over the backhand. It was a little less effective with the older racquet and Nadal in his 20s was a tiger so it hamstrung Fed for a period of time (2008-2014). It is important to note that prior to 2008, Fed did beat Nadal twice at Wimbledon. From 2014, just as Fed transitioned to a bigger racquethead and began to improve his backhand, Nadal's movement declined. When Nadal made a comeback in 2017 with a reconfigured game, it was no longer based on high bouncing balls to the backhand but on taking it earlier and hitting off a flatter trajectory (without much loss of spin, so it was still a heavy ball). But this sort of ball was easier for Fed to cope with just at the point where he had improved his backhand substantially. Hence, Nadal has struggled against Djokovic and Federer from 2017 onwards (except on clay).
The Big Three rivalries are overall much more complicated than Seles-Graf, with all three being excellent at playing tricky matches. Not surprising, that, since they are three of the greatest we have ever had.
Graf did show an ability to play tricky matches really well starting with 95 but particularly so in 99 when she realised she could no longer overpower young, talented players and needed to outthink them. The question is would she have shown the same flexibility in 93 when Seles was figuring her out. Don't know, can't say, because none of the post-94 adjustments involved coming over the backhand on the return much more often. As said earlier in the thread, with a slice return, Graf would at best be able to get Seles to start the rally on neutral. She would struggle to impose even on second serves unless she got hold of a forehand. And she was liable to go for a big inside out return on the forehand and miss when pressed (which again happened twice on big points in the AO 93 final). Graf was a formidably talented player who however relied on a few reliable and predictable patterns of play that worked very well against most of the competition. That is why she was so stubborn about breaking out of those patterns. But imo she would have had to, had Seles not been stabbed. That is the big question mark. Did she have the stomach for it in the middle of her career, carrying the pride of being a great champion and already one of the greatest of all times. She could always say, "I don't need to" and lose a few more slams before changing course.
She did get a fillip on the forehand side when the Max 200G went out of production and she began to use a Wilson. She was noticeably more comfortable hitting forehands on the half volley/on the rise with this racquet. That would have helped her cope better with a Seles onslaught into her forehand wing. But note that it was still an unusual situation for her. Before Seles, she could bully everyone else on the forehand wing which forced them to attack her underrated slice long enough for her to run around and hit an I/O forehand. Seles was able to handcuff her from the baseline like no other player had before.
Oh joy. Oh rapture. A topic that's never been discussed before. How exciting. How novel. How interesting.
Reminder: Selestials are like cockroaches. Just when you think you've gotten rid of them, they return.
Folks: no matter how many posts, polls, wishing, wanting, and waiting you do, it ain't gonna change reality. Deal.
Dolgopolov85
G.O.A.T.
Not really, Fed does have a high rate of topspin, it's just less than Nadal. But at least until recently, it used to be higher than even Djokovic. Fed has a great slice but prefers to hit the topspin backhand. Graf had an OK TS BH and shielded it with her incredible slice.
Dolgopolov85
G.O.A.T.
Fed was and is also amazing at anticipating and moving just in time to cover court rather than depending on pure leg speed. That's why he has had such amazing longevity. Graf did at times get caught in a bad court position, way more often than you would expect a player of her talent to. It's a testament to her incredible athleticism and shotmaking that she could cover for that weakness.
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DeathStrike
Guest
Double post
Last edited by a moderator:
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DeathStrike
Guest
Oh sorry so once a topic has been discussed it can never be brought up again ever, missed that rule... anyway it dragged you in
Dolgopolov85
G.O.A.T.
I think, if anything, this has been one of the better, if not best, discussions on Graf-Seles, very constructive responses from all sides. Lack of tennis due to covid seems to have improved sanity levels in this part of the forum.
I mean...there's no real tennis currently being played. Graf took the tennis world by storm in 1987 and played lights out through 1989. Seles then took her crown in 1990/1991 and held it until she was stabbed in May 1993. Graf then won 4 straight Majors from 1993-1994 and had her amazing run from 1995-1996.
No one is taking away Graf's Majors, and you can only beat the players in front of you. But what's the harm in speculating whether a world in which Seles wasn't stabbed results in Seles keeping her crown or whether Graf would have been able to claw back to retake her throne as the queen of the women's tour? It's maybe the biggest "what if" we have in tennis.
Phoenix1983
G.O.A.T.
I have a feeling that Graf and Seles would have ended roughly equal in accomplishments, like Navratilova and Evert.
herodf1865
New User
I'm with you.
Monica may well have won 3 slams in 1993 then 1994 and driven Graf into early retirement. Speculation of course-but possible.
The problem I have is seeing how Monica wins Wimbledon on grass. It's a gaping hole in her record.
If things stay the same, i.e., if Graf still loses to McNeil (or any player) before the final in 1994, I'd have a non-stabbed Seles as the solid favorite to take that title, especially if we assume her serve and net game kept improving. Her toughest 2 opponents would have been Navratilova and Martinez, but she would have been the clear pick to win both matches. I also think a non-stabbed Seles would have had a solid shot at Wimbledon 1998, especially if she avoided Hingis and eventually faced Novotna in the finals (who very well could have crumbled w/a stronger opponent than Tauziat).
Of course, who knows what happens with those draws, but it also works both ways. If Seles isn't stabbed in 1993, you can imagine a draw in which Graf plays Novotna before the finals and Novotna doesn't crumble w/the pressure of it being a final but then does crash and burn when she faces Seles in the final.
herodf1865
New User
Your scenario is plausible Buscemi.
Nonetheless she lacks that Wimby crown. I bet Monica regrets basically bailing on Wimbledon
in 1991. Her window of opportunity was small and the tennis gods were cruel.
Nonetheless she lacks that Wimby crown. I bet Monica regrets basically bailing on Wimbledon
in 1991. Her window of opportunity was small and the tennis gods were cruel.
Dolgopolov85
G.O.A.T.
91 and 93 were when Graf was most beatable at Wimbledon (among years that she won there, not counting the trainwreck of 94). So yeah, I agree with you that 91 would have been a good opportunity for Seles to win Wimbledon. She played well in 92 and would have beaten anyone but a peak Graf. Unfortunately for her, Graf absolutely rolled back the years and produced a vintage performance in the final to cap a strong showing in the previous rounds.
skaj
Legend
Even more unfortunately for her, she was forbidden to grunt which is why she was a shadow of herself in that final.
Graf also "rolled back the years" in Paris that year, played one of the best matches ever.
Dolgopolov85
G.O.A.T.
Yes, even Graf said post match that not being allowed to grunt played on Seles' mind. That said, had Graf not been so on that day and had the court not been slick due to the rain, Seles would have still made it at least a tough match.
But by Paris, if you mean French Open, I am not sure I would rate it one of her best but I do regard that as a very good Graf without doubt notwithstanding the ginormous amount of errors. I think the errors were simply on account of Graf trying to be aggressive and not get into grinding rallies. She had been very timid in the 1990 final and she corrected that in this match.
1991 Wimbledon depends on the draw for me. I still don't see Seles beating Graf there, but, if Sabatini played Graf in the SF, she could have taken her down, followed by Seles beating Sabatini in the final.
OK, I admit it. It's the 'new' Math that's tripping me up. If I could just understand this new Math then I would have no problem recognizing that 'Seles was better than Graf.' I mean, it should be easy, right?
Tell me if I got it right Professor Selestial:
5 is better or more than 10. That's right. Beat an opponent 5 times out of 15, and it makes you better than them. And I can't forget to use the new theorems. Or did I mean theories? All you have to do is start with, "Now, if _______ happened, then __________ would have ____________." And if I truly get it, once you use all the magic words 'could', 'would', 'should' your answer is automatically right, and becomes the new truth, the new reality. And everything else is fake. Donald Trump said it himself.
So, do I get it now?
13GATOSNEGROS
Professional
Doris Hart & Martina ... can you repeat the question?
upchuck
Hall of Fame
You're right. You don't understand math. Let me help you out.OK, I admit it. It's the 'new' Math that's tripping me up. If I could just understand this new Math then I would have no problem recognizing that 'Seles was better than Graf.' I mean, it should be easy, right?
Tell me if I got it right Professor Selestial:
5 is better or more than 10. That's right. Beat an opponent 5 times out of 15, and it makes you better than them. And I can't forget to use the new theorems. Or did I mean theories? All you have to do is start with, "Now, if _______ happened, then __________ would have ____________." And if I truly get it, once you use all the magic words 'could', 'would', 'should' your answer is automatically right, and becomes the new truth, the new reality. And everything else is fake. Donald Trump said it himself.
So, do I get it now?
Seles "during her peak" was the statement. Seles' peak ended when she was stabbed. At that point, the H2H was 6 to 4 in Graf's favour. Three of Graf's victories at that point came in the 1980s before teenage Seles won a single major.
Do you understand the math now? I tried to make it simple for you.
Darling, dearest. Love of my life -
Thank you so much for your kindness. Helping me understand this 'new, complicated Math.' I get it now. The 'new' Math means qualifying words. Such as "peak Seles". Because afterall, YOU know what "peak Seles" means. It's so..... well black-and-white. Like 10 is not really more than 5, anymore than 6 is more than 4. And lest I forget the magic words: "before Seles won a single major." Because those words, in my pretty good translation from the common tongue, means NOTHING.
That's right. You know NOTHING.
Except for picking up the fork and spoon and putting lots of food in her mouth, Seles was NOT better than Graf at anything!
But please, go ahead. Try and change history.......AGAIN....... You've had so much success at your 'would have' 'could have' 'should have' and 'if' revisionist history, haven't you darling?
Well, haven't you? ? ! ?
Darling.....? Have I lost you again????? Oh dear..........
Fedinkum
Legend
I was a Graf fan but even I thought the disallowance of Seles grunting was unfair to her. I wonder when grunting was officially allowed again.
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