Like all of these threads, there are way too many variables we simply cannot anticipate if Martina had decided to be a florist or a farmer instead of a tennis player. Obviously there is a vacuum where Martina is not taking another's players experience, confidence and opportunities away at the second week of majors. Just as obviously, Evert and other players do not have the Navratilova freight train to inspire them, and guide them towards the total athletic blueprint of success. The tour changes as does every top player and every draw.
Still its a fun game we try to play here
I have repeatedly said that Evert's clay game record is overemphasized, and her grass game/ record underappreciated as she played in a particularly strong grass era and was just as consistent in her major performances as she was anywhere else. Evert simply was always there in the last days of any grass major, and that was going to be true regardless of Martina. Other grass talents would still falter when Chris would not. But these other talents would have gotten more experience in finals and developed into contendesr. Those caveats stated. Here we go.
Evert beat Martina in 1976 and 1980 semis. Navratilova beat Evert at Wimbledon in finals in 1978, 1979, 1982, 1984, 1985, and in semifinals in 1987, and 1988.
1978 - the only threat to Evert that Martina took out was Goolagong seeded at number 3. They had at that point split meetings at Centre court with Goolagong being far more experienced on grass. ( in 1980, Evonne played heroically to take her down and win one final major) But Evonne was simply not getting in major finals very often at this point and having more and more trouble beating Chris in this rivalry. I think this is a flip of the coin.
1979 - Martina took out Austin and Fromholz, and while Austin just finished beating Evert at the Italian, and beat King this year at W, frankly I think Fromholz was the more dangerous opponent for Chris on grass. Evert's experience and near perfect groundies for grass, would have made her a clear favorite in baseline duels v Tracy, but Fromholz not only had 3 victories v Evert, she had several close 3 setters as well. Oddly it seems that Fromholz played better against Evert in early rounds or RR events than later rounds or major tournaments . If this match happens on Centre Court with late round pressure on, Evert will take this title.
1982 -the draws are full of interesting upsets leading to Martina only playing one seeded player, that being 11 seed Bunge. Navratilova got an unseeded QF and a WC in her 4th RD, while 12th seed King gets to the semis and takes a set from Chris. Evert does not look in peak form here either. She had lost a set to 15 seed Ruzici, of all players, in the fourth round and although she took a set from Martina in the final, she lost the last set 6-1. I think an inspired performance might have done Chris in, but Hana is still at that stage where she can barely keep her knees from quaking when the pressure is on Centre court, and a lot of the attacking players are too green. A healthy Austin or Jaeger was by now more experienced on grass and might have beaten Evert, so too might have Turnbull, or Jordan or even Shriver in a semifinal but you can't give any of them even money to do so.
1984 - Beginning in 1984, I think you can see real strides in Evert's grass game each year. She has found her graphite, developed her volley and serve, gotten stronger and quicker. ( the question becomes how much of this can she thank Martina for and whether she would have done this anyway under some other threat!) We are seeing a clear pattern now where all those tall aggressive gals in the top ten, who had never beat Evert because they simply are not mobile and agile enough from the backcourt. They each had beaten Martina and had closer scores vs Martina than Evert and grass is not helping them one whit. Evert played an underperforming Hana and killed her AGAIN, so the biggest battle was Nagelson in Rd 2. I see Jordan as the only threat for Chris in Navratilova's half. You really have to wonder which of these players would have blossomed by now in the sunshine, Martina denied them. Maybe Mandlikova gets mentally stronger and mature with more tournament wins. Maybe Jordan gets better coaching, and a new topspin backhand. Maybe Garrison becomes the beneficiary? Still this was Evert's tournament to lose again.
1985 - Clearly Evert was again the second best grass courter in the world and she is still getting better each year. Martina had the tougher draw , taking out Garrison, Shriver, Evert was not threatened at all. By now we have a mature, intelligent and complete Hana on the tour, who is more than dangerous to both champions -everywhere but Centre court! She lost in the third round. By now we are wondering if Evert's even playing tennis anymore with no Martina to drive her, or has she retired with enough hardware including five Wimbledons that playing patty-cake with a toddler holds more interest to her.
1987 - The Evert we got, as seeded 3, played the best and most inspired tennis of her year at Centre Court and produced some of her finest grass tennis, barely losing to a full-throttle Martina in a semi and manhandling Kohde Kilch. Her groundstrokes were near perfect, her speed in tack, and her sense of opportunism honed and evident. By now her 'slow starts' are a nagging problem everywhere though. Mandlikova was more than ready to take Evert and Wimbledon, but she was injured this year. One question is would Chris have beaten a still grass -green but scary upsurgent Graf ( Steffi had never won a grass court tournament) with that huge forehand, dangerous serve and phenomenal footspeed. Another is was Graf mentally ready to take the citadel? I definitely see Evert losing that first set trying to adjust to the power but Graf was tactically immature and predictable though, and Evert was, if nothing else , brilliant at finding and exploiting those hidden flaws and inducing inexplicable errors in her opponents. Its an open question if she could have found her rhythm and adjusted, in time to use her grass court experience, those tactical advantages and strategic mind to stop Graf or whether Graf would have gotten nervous or tentative in the biggest match of any players career. I think both of the above have to happen for Evert to win and I am giving Graf edge here with a 60- 65% chance of blasting her way through any nerves here .
1988 - By now Evert's grass game is in decline and her 'slow starts' are likely to do her in against several players . While she did beat Sukova in her quarter, I think Chris was actually lucky to get Martina in the semis. She played free of any pressure, and played herself into form but Graf would have killed her and she might well have lost to Shriver, Garrison, or McNeil all of whom had victories elsewhere.
Without Martina, I think Evert would have won five or six Wimbledons until burn-out hit, or someone else filled that void.
Still its a fun game we try to play here
I have repeatedly said that Evert's clay game record is overemphasized, and her grass game/ record underappreciated as she played in a particularly strong grass era and was just as consistent in her major performances as she was anywhere else. Evert simply was always there in the last days of any grass major, and that was going to be true regardless of Martina. Other grass talents would still falter when Chris would not. But these other talents would have gotten more experience in finals and developed into contendesr. Those caveats stated. Here we go.
Evert beat Martina in 1976 and 1980 semis. Navratilova beat Evert at Wimbledon in finals in 1978, 1979, 1982, 1984, 1985, and in semifinals in 1987, and 1988.
1978 - the only threat to Evert that Martina took out was Goolagong seeded at number 3. They had at that point split meetings at Centre court with Goolagong being far more experienced on grass. ( in 1980, Evonne played heroically to take her down and win one final major) But Evonne was simply not getting in major finals very often at this point and having more and more trouble beating Chris in this rivalry. I think this is a flip of the coin.
1979 - Martina took out Austin and Fromholz, and while Austin just finished beating Evert at the Italian, and beat King this year at W, frankly I think Fromholz was the more dangerous opponent for Chris on grass. Evert's experience and near perfect groundies for grass, would have made her a clear favorite in baseline duels v Tracy, but Fromholz not only had 3 victories v Evert, she had several close 3 setters as well. Oddly it seems that Fromholz played better against Evert in early rounds or RR events than later rounds or major tournaments . If this match happens on Centre Court with late round pressure on, Evert will take this title.
1982 -the draws are full of interesting upsets leading to Martina only playing one seeded player, that being 11 seed Bunge. Navratilova got an unseeded QF and a WC in her 4th RD, while 12th seed King gets to the semis and takes a set from Chris. Evert does not look in peak form here either. She had lost a set to 15 seed Ruzici, of all players, in the fourth round and although she took a set from Martina in the final, she lost the last set 6-1. I think an inspired performance might have done Chris in, but Hana is still at that stage where she can barely keep her knees from quaking when the pressure is on Centre court, and a lot of the attacking players are too green. A healthy Austin or Jaeger was by now more experienced on grass and might have beaten Evert, so too might have Turnbull, or Jordan or even Shriver in a semifinal but you can't give any of them even money to do so.
1984 - Beginning in 1984, I think you can see real strides in Evert's grass game each year. She has found her graphite, developed her volley and serve, gotten stronger and quicker. ( the question becomes how much of this can she thank Martina for and whether she would have done this anyway under some other threat!) We are seeing a clear pattern now where all those tall aggressive gals in the top ten, who had never beat Evert because they simply are not mobile and agile enough from the backcourt. They each had beaten Martina and had closer scores vs Martina than Evert and grass is not helping them one whit. Evert played an underperforming Hana and killed her AGAIN, so the biggest battle was Nagelson in Rd 2. I see Jordan as the only threat for Chris in Navratilova's half. You really have to wonder which of these players would have blossomed by now in the sunshine, Martina denied them. Maybe Mandlikova gets mentally stronger and mature with more tournament wins. Maybe Jordan gets better coaching, and a new topspin backhand. Maybe Garrison becomes the beneficiary? Still this was Evert's tournament to lose again.
1985 - Clearly Evert was again the second best grass courter in the world and she is still getting better each year. Martina had the tougher draw , taking out Garrison, Shriver, Evert was not threatened at all. By now we have a mature, intelligent and complete Hana on the tour, who is more than dangerous to both champions -everywhere but Centre court! She lost in the third round. By now we are wondering if Evert's even playing tennis anymore with no Martina to drive her, or has she retired with enough hardware including five Wimbledons that playing patty-cake with a toddler holds more interest to her.
1987 - The Evert we got, as seeded 3, played the best and most inspired tennis of her year at Centre Court and produced some of her finest grass tennis, barely losing to a full-throttle Martina in a semi and manhandling Kohde Kilch. Her groundstrokes were near perfect, her speed in tack, and her sense of opportunism honed and evident. By now her 'slow starts' are a nagging problem everywhere though. Mandlikova was more than ready to take Evert and Wimbledon, but she was injured this year. One question is would Chris have beaten a still grass -green but scary upsurgent Graf ( Steffi had never won a grass court tournament) with that huge forehand, dangerous serve and phenomenal footspeed. Another is was Graf mentally ready to take the citadel? I definitely see Evert losing that first set trying to adjust to the power but Graf was tactically immature and predictable though, and Evert was, if nothing else , brilliant at finding and exploiting those hidden flaws and inducing inexplicable errors in her opponents. Its an open question if she could have found her rhythm and adjusted, in time to use her grass court experience, those tactical advantages and strategic mind to stop Graf or whether Graf would have gotten nervous or tentative in the biggest match of any players career. I think both of the above have to happen for Evert to win and I am giving Graf edge here with a 60- 65% chance of blasting her way through any nerves here .
1988 - By now Evert's grass game is in decline and her 'slow starts' are likely to do her in against several players . While she did beat Sukova in her quarter, I think Chris was actually lucky to get Martina in the semis. She played free of any pressure, and played herself into form but Graf would have killed her and she might well have lost to Shriver, Garrison, or McNeil all of whom had victories elsewhere.
Without Martina, I think Evert would have won five or six Wimbledons until burn-out hit, or someone else filled that void.
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