What the heck is "a non-immigrant visa refusal rate"?
US has two general types of visa: immigrant visa (you want permanent residency) and non-immigrant (temporary: tourists, business, students,
athletes, entertainers etc..).
The non-immigrant visa refusal rate would be the rate at which the US rejects applicants for non-immigrant visa from a particular country and presumably a higher rate indicates a country with a greater risk of people over-staying their visa's. So one factor considered when determining which countries are part of the visa waiver program is the "non-immigrant visa refusal rate" the idea being I guess is that you don't want countries in the waiver program where there is a high risk people don't go home.
Make sense ?
(I hope it goes without saying if the consular officer thinks you will overstay (or that you will use your visa for other than it's intended purpose) then you won't get a visa (there is an appeal process). So presumably there are a lot of on the ground day-to-day evaluations by consular officials whose collective "wisdom" winds up reflected in the refusal rate.)
I only skimmed it but I believe that author was suggesting the actual overstay rate is what we should focus on: "But a better metric [than the non-immigrant visa refusal rate] to focus on is the visa overstay rate, which more accurately measures the risk of individuals overstaying their visas."