Australian Open is Djokovic's to win or lose

forehandblast · Jan 12, 2020

I was pretty sure of this already, but after seeing him this week and weekend I am now sure of it. Djokovic will only lose in Melbourne if he has a bad match somewhere along the line vs someone playing extremely well. I fully expect #8 and #17 for him, even though I am rooting for Nadal or a breakthrough new slam winner more than him, so that is not bias.

James P · Jan 12, 2020

I actually take the field, but just barely. I'd say Djokovic is in the driver seat and give him maybe 40% chance to win.

Djokovic_is_the_best#1 · Jan 12, 2020

Djoko is the big favourite. However, I have learnt sport is unpredictable and so I’m still erring on caution. Anything can happen but yes, it’s a great opportunity for no17 and 8th AO.

James P · Jan 12, 2020

But yeah, he's the favorite.

StrongRule · Jan 12, 2020

I wonder how Federer fanboys will like it when he will officially become the weakest player between the big 3 at his best slam. (which will happen if Djokovic will win 8th AO). I guess they will still prefer that over Nadal winning a 20th slam. The hate to Nadal is the strongest.

Phoenix1983 · Jan 12, 2020

StrongRule said:
I wonder how Federer fanboys will like it when he will officially become the weakest player between the big 3 at his best slam. (which will happen if Djokovic will win 8th AO). I guess they will still prefer that over Nadal winning a 20th slam. The hate to Nadal is the strongest.

Wouldn't Federer's Wimbledon record still be superior to Novak Djokovic's AO record?

weakera · Jan 12, 2020

IMO he is at best as much of a favorite as last season but likely somewhat less of a favorite due to NextGen advancement and what we saw Stan can do in NYC.

Still a heavy favorite but not the heaviest he has been.

AnOctorokForDinner · Jan 12, 2020

StrongRule said:
I wonder how Federer fanboys will like it when he will officially become the weakest player between the big 3 at his best slam. (which will happen if Djokovic will win 8th AO). I guess they will still prefer that over Nadal winning a 20th slam. The hate to Nadal is the strongest.

Ah, the old dumbage of early losses beating losing slam finals.

StrongRule · Jan 12, 2020

Phoenix1983 said:
Wouldn't Federer's Wimbledon record still be superior to Novak Djokovic's AO record?

If both will have 8 titles then for sure most will prefer the player who is 8-0 in AO finals, not the one who is 0-3 in Wimbledon finals against his main rival.

forehandblast · Jan 12, 2020

StrongRule said:
If both will have 8 titles then for sure most will prefer the player who is 8-0 in AO finals, not the one who is 0-3 in Wimbledon finals against his main rival.

12 finals is still better. Djokovic might wind up with the better one, but it wouldn't be yet.

Jonesy · Jan 12, 2020

Hopefully we see another Fedovic match for the fans.

NoleFam · Jan 12, 2020

He's in an even better position heading into Melbourne than he was last year because his form is already there. He just needs to remain healthy and he has a great chance to get an 8th AO title.

Toronto11 · Jan 12, 2020

It’s a very important major for him given his odds of winning the French are slim at best and a lot can happen between now and Wimbledon/USO. If he hopes to catch Fed’s major record I would consider this a must win especially given that Tsits, Shapo and Medvedev will only continue to get better.

Goof · Jan 12, 2020

It all depends on where Stan is in the draw. Djokovic will beat anyone but Stan, and Rafa will beat anyone but Djokovic.

Tshooter · Jan 12, 2020

Goof said:
It all depends on where Stan is in the draw. Djokovic will beat anyone but Stan, and Rafa will beat anyone but Djokovic.

Hitman · Jan 12, 2020

Goof said:
It all depends on where Stan is in the draw. Djokovic will beat anyone but Stan, and Rafa will beat anyone but Djokovic.

Djokovic is 2-1 against Stan at AO since Stan went Stanimal.

Mainad · Jan 12, 2020

Phoenix1983 said:
Wouldn't Federer's Wimbledon record still be superior to Novak Djokovic's AO record?

Well, they would be on 8 titles each but Djokovic will always be able to boast that he never lost to Federer in 3 finals at his favourite Slam.

NoleFam · Jan 12, 2020

Hitman said:
Djokovic is 2-1 against Stan at AO since Stan went Stanimal.

Yea like all of a sudden now Djokovic can't beat Stan on his own court?

helterskelter · Jan 12, 2020

StrongRule said:
If both will have 8 titles then for sure most will prefer the player who is 8-0 in AO finals, not the one who is 0-3 in Wimbledon finals against his main rival.

Most will be wrong, then. They should for sure prefer a person who made 11 finals to one who only made 8 semi-finals.

But if Djokovic gets two more AO titles, then what you say would be true.

Zardoz7/12 · Jan 12, 2020

Djokovic looked pretty solid throughout this week in Australia, the omens are good for Djokovic to win another Melbourne crown. Nadal vs Djokovic AO final seems extremely plausible, I'm not writing off Federer, Medvedev or Tsitsipas either to make a "deep run".

StrongRule · Jan 12, 2020

I guess Djokovic is pretty much a lock for the title. Who realistically can stop him? On these courts I don't see it happening.

Hitman · Jan 12, 2020

NoleFam said:
Yea like all of a sudden now Djokovic can't beat Stan on his own court?

The last time they played, I distinctly remember there being a bagel and a dethroning of the Stanimal, as defending champion. To say Djokovic cannot beat him at AO is a little far fetched.

Goof · Jan 12, 2020

Hitman said:
Djokovic is 2-1 against Stan at AO since Stan went Stanimal.

0-1 in the last 1 Majors.

Goof · Jan 12, 2020

Hitman said:
The last time they played, I distinctly remember there being a bagel and a dethroning of the Stanimal, as defending champion. To say Djokovic cannot beat him at AO is a little far fetched.

Most recently, Djokovic cried uncle against a far less than 100% Stan.

NoleFam · Jan 12, 2020

Hitman said:
The last time they played, I distinctly remember there being a bagel and a dethroning of the Stanimal, as defending champion. To say Djokovic cannot beat him at AO is a little far fetched.

It is. Djokovic has more confidence on Rod Laver arena than anywhere in the world and he can beat anybody on it.

Hitman · Jan 12, 2020

Goof said:
0-1 in the last 1 Majors.

LOL. Well, I guess there's that. But isn't Thiem 0-1 against him in the last 3 majors also?

SW1 · Jan 12, 2020

“Australian Open is Djokovic’s to win or lose”

- That’s usually how it works, isn’t it?

Jonesy · Jan 12, 2020

StrongRule said:
I guess Djokovic is pretty much a lock for the title. Who realistically can stop him? On these courts I don't see it happening.

What about NEO backhand Fed? Fed still is one of the best when its playing fast.

Hitman · Jan 12, 2020

Goof said:
Most recently, Djokovic cried uncle against a far less than 100% Stan.

So Stan was less than 100% but Djokovic who was carrying an injury into USO was OK. Got it.

RF-18 · Jan 12, 2020

Stan is out here slugging it out with the small boys for titles in 250s and 500s for the past years. Djokovic is winning team events, slams and masters. Stan is not something to worry about.

NoleFam · Jan 12, 2020

Hitman said:
So Stan was less than 100% but Djokovic who was carrying an injury into USO was OK. Got it.

I had just typed up the same comment. Lol.

Red Rick · Jan 12, 2020

If the elbow holds up I don't see anyone really beating him.

Hitman · Jan 12, 2020

NoleFam said:
It is. Djokovic has more confidence on Rod Laver arena than anywhere in the world and he can't beat anybody on it.

No top player on the tour has a winning H2H against him in RL, not Federer, not Nadal, not Murray, not Wawrinka.

NoleFam · Jan 12, 2020

Hitman said:
No top player on the tour has a winning H2H against him in RL, not Federer, not Nadal, not Murray, not Wawrinka.

Exactly.

Red Rick · Jan 12, 2020

Hitman said:
So Stan was less than 100% but Djokovic who was carrying an injury into USO was OK. Got it.

Djokovic losing to 2019 Wawrinka is basically evidence of him nearly dying.

Red Rick · Jan 12, 2020

NoleFam said:
Exactly.

Sample size mother**********

Poisoned Slice · Jan 12, 2020

Stanimal is done. Just good ol Stan Kravecki now. @Federer and Del Potro

Yes, Djoko is a clear favorite. Still thinking somebody else will win.

alexio · Jan 12, 2020

StrongRule said:
I guess Djokovic is pretty much a lock for the title. Who realistically can stop him? On these courts I don't see it happening.

only kyrgios has a chance

Druss · Jan 12, 2020

StrongRule said:
If both will have 8 titles then for sure most will prefer the player who is 8-0 in AO finals, not the one who is 0-3 in Wimbledon finals against his main rival.

LOL...Federer made 12 Wimby finals, that is superior to making 8, even if it's 8-0. So if Edberg won the 1989 Wimby and went 3-0 he'd be better than Lendl at the USO who made 8 finals (winning 3)? Your comment reeks of hate towards a certain player, simple.

StrongRule · Jan 12, 2020

Druss said:
LOL...Federer made 12 Wimby finals, that is superior to making 8, even if it's 8-0. So if Edberg won the 1989 Wimby and went 3-0 he'd be better than Lendl at the USO who made 8 finals (winning 3)? Your comment reeks of hate towards a certain player, simple.

I dislike Djokovic way more than I dislike Federer. I just don't think losing finals to Djokovic time after time somehow add something to Federer's Wimbledon legacy.

Lleytonstation · Jan 12, 2020

Dont see any possibility where Djoker or Rafa does not win. I would say 80% Djoker and 20% Rafa. No one else.

StrongRule · Jan 12, 2020

Lleytonstation said:
Dont see any possibility where Djoker or Rafa does not win. I would say 80% Djoker and 20% Rafa. No one else.

TheAssassin · Jan 12, 2020

He is in a good position now. If he doesn't complicate it too much in earlier rounds and avoids the most brutal draw possible, his chances are big.

Phoenix1983 · Jan 12, 2020

Mainad said:
Well, they would be on 8 titles each but Djokovic will always be able to boast that he never lost to Federer in 3 finals at his favourite Slam.

True, but Federer's overall record would be better - as well as the 8 titles, he'd have another 4 finals, whereas Novak Djokovic has 0.

Phoenix1983 · Jan 12, 2020

StrongRule said:
I guess Djokovic is pretty much a lock for the title. Who realistically can stop him? On these courts I don't see it happening.

We may as well just not hold the tournament then. Let's just hand Novak Djokovic the title now.

MeatTornado · Jan 12, 2020

StrongRule said:
I dislike Djokovic way more than I dislike Federer. I just don't think losing finals to Djokovic time after time somehow add something to Federer's Wimbledon legacy.

It's not about losing to Djokovic time after time.

It's about being able to win 6 straight matches time after time. That's not nothing.

Steve0904 · Jan 12, 2020

Making finals has to add to a legacy in a certain sense. Sure 8 titles is 8 titles whether one guy has 4 extra finals or not, but saying the extra finals mean absolutely nothing is too harsh because it discounts huge wins like the one Federer had in the Wimby SF last year. If extra finals count for anything that has to be it.

pico · Jan 12, 2020

I find Djokovic inconsistent and I am his fan. I realised he has a tougher time against more flat hitters e.g Bautista and Medvedev. He also seemed gassed against Medvedev at times in their last match. If the air quality in Melbourne is not good then that could also hold against him. I still think he can win it but it is a 50 / 50 for me.

forehandblast · Jan 12, 2020

Toronto11 said:
It’s a very important major for him given his odds of winning the French are slim at best and a lot can happen between now and Wimbledon/USO. If he hopes to catch Fed’s major record I would consider this a must win especially given that Tsits, Shapo and Medvedev will only continue to get better.

It will probably be Nadal's major record by the time he gets there (if he does).

forehandblast · Jan 12, 2020

Steve0904 said:
Making finals has to add to a legacy in a certain sense. Sure 8 titles is 8 titles whether one guy has 4 extra finals or not, but saying the extra finals mean absolutely nothing is too harsh because it discounts huge wins like the one Federer had in the Wimby SF last year. If extra finals count for anything that has to be it.

So for you it depends on the quality of the final runs when it is just a final?

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