Djokovic CYGS
- Thread starter EllieK
- Start date
RelentlessAttack
Hall of Fame
It’s happening this year
Third Serve
Talk Tennis Guru
Why would there be multiple votes allowed?
Cashman
Hall of Fame
...you know that's not how statistics and probability work, right?
EllieK
Hall of Fame
Of course I do. I was trying to simplify.
Aussie Darcy
Bionic Poster
Where's 0%?
helterskelter
G.O.A.T.
Far close to 0% than to 25%.
I'll use Ladbrokes odds:
Wimbledon 13/10: 43%
US Open 13/8: 38%
Roland Garros 3/1: 25%
He needs all three. This makes his chances of winning the CYGS, according to Ladbrokes, roughly 4%.
And that's not factoring in the fact that they have a profit margin and so are overestimating his chances in all three cases.
They could be wrong of course. But most bookies have similar odds.
I'll use Ladbrokes odds:
Wimbledon 13/10: 43%
US Open 13/8: 38%
Roland Garros 3/1: 25%
He needs all three. This makes his chances of winning the CYGS, according to Ladbrokes, roughly 4%.
And that's not factoring in the fact that they have a profit margin and so are overestimating his chances in all three cases.
They could be wrong of course. But most bookies have similar odds.
MichaelNadal
Bionic Poster
TennisFan3
Talk Tennis Guru
If there is anyone in the Open Era who could do it, it will be Novak Djokovic IMO.
2020 or 2021 could be the year he does the CYGS. The only question is Nadal in Paris. Otherwise Novak is the overwhelming favorite in every other slam.
2020 or 2021 could be the year he does the CYGS. The only question is Nadal in Paris. Otherwise Novak is the overwhelming favorite in every other slam.
tennis_pro
Bionic Poster
100% if he wins all 4
Tennis_Hands
Banned
Even if he performs a miracle at RG20, with his emotional investment in OG, at his age he cannot persist to win both WC20 and USO20. He had a real chance 2015 and 2016 but he failed. He had 'body' then and he has mind 'now'. They did not happen at the same time.
4% is much closer to 0 than to 25%. That is the correct estimation.
4% is much closer to 0 than to 25%. That is the correct estimation.
Bender
G.O.A.T.
It's not simplified; it's wrong.
beard
Legend
That is true calculation...
Breakpointerer
Legend
I would say anywhere between 15 and 40
beard
Legend
True... 0.25*0.25*0.25... 0.015625%
My calculation: RG 33%, W 60%, USO 50%, so its about 10%...
mike danny
Bionic Poster
Djokovic won't win the CYGS. He will be 33 shortly. These threads need to stop.
Lew II
G.O.A.T.
Too high. Winning slams is not that easy.
I'd say probabilty is about a reflection of the titles he won:
RG 1 title --> 10%
WI 5 titles --> 50%
UO 3 titles --> 30%
That makes 90% possibility that he wins at least one of them, which would make me happy.
beard
Legend
How can you say he "wont"? Its worst way of posting here, where posters are 100% sure something won't happen, although there is possibility...
You can say that his chances are extremely low, but can't say its 0%, because its not... Chance of winning lottery is 0.0000000%, yet it happens... Novaks chances are 1%, 2%...5%... That is far from impossible....
CYGS
Legend
The mere thought of this scares the **** out of him.
Lew II
G.O.A.T.
Yeah it's probably a defensive mental process.
Tennis_Hands
Banned
beard
Legend
I am always optimist...
RG... I have a feeling that if Novak get to final, he has very good chances against Nadal, specially if Thiem plays Nadal in sf...
W... I wrote 60% although I can't imagine Novak not to win... My real opinion is 80%.. Field is do weak on grass, and neo grass Novak with improved serve\great return is deadly...
USO... I dint know what to think, but Novak is big favourite...
I wrote this if Novak stays healthy, off course, no gurry interference or similar....
TripleATeam
G.O.A.T.
Between 1 and 8%.
High end: 25% RG, 65% WIM, 50% USO = 8.1%
Low end: 10% RG, 35% WIM, 30% USO = 1.05%
High end: 25% RG, 65% WIM, 50% USO = 8.1%
Low end: 10% RG, 35% WIM, 30% USO = 1.05%
Tennis_Hands
Banned
Close.
It is in the range 40-15 % according to the highly scientific Djokemeter.
kevaninho
Hall of Fame
Even if, say, he takes RG this year, its still an almighty task to grab the next 2. He didn't do it in his peak, so I cant see it now, although he is the only player on the tour capable.
Historically, he cant be trusted to bring his best form, or motivation/mind to the USO most years.
Historically, he cant be trusted to bring his best form, or motivation/mind to the USO most years.
Tennis_Hands
Banned
Phoenix1983
G.O.A.T.
I didn't vote because the likelihood is lower than any of the options.
Djokovic_is_the_best#1
Bionic Poster
Let’s just take things match by match. This is not even worth discussing. It’s early in season and no man in open era has done it.
Right now the focus for Djokovic is to continue his momentum and winning run. Dubai is the focus for Novak and us fans. His game is in great shape and he building confidence all the time. For me at best he could repeat 2011 or 2015 in terms of winning 3 slams. He won’t dominate the year though like he did back then.
Winning all 4 is too much. It won’t happen, as much as I’d love to see it. I’d be happy if he got one more and kept the no1 and got record for weeks at no1 and year end no1. Plus Olympics would be nice. I think at best he could get 3 slams but even then he needs to maintain a high level all year and have luck with draw and depends on other players level and external factors too.
Should be an exciting year though. Djokovic and Nadal still the best and in form. The younger generation like Thiem, Medvedev, Tsitsipas, Zverev are all getting better too. Plus there may still be magic left in Federer and Wawrinka too. Who knows what will happen?
Right now the focus for Djokovic is to continue his momentum and winning run. Dubai is the focus for Novak and us fans. His game is in great shape and he building confidence all the time. For me at best he could repeat 2011 or 2015 in terms of winning 3 slams. He won’t dominate the year though like he did back then.
Winning all 4 is too much. It won’t happen, as much as I’d love to see it. I’d be happy if he got one more and kept the no1 and got record for weeks at no1 and year end no1. Plus Olympics would be nice. I think at best he could get 3 slams but even then he needs to maintain a high level all year and have luck with draw and depends on other players level and external factors too.
Should be an exciting year though. Djokovic and Nadal still the best and in form. The younger generation like Thiem, Medvedev, Tsitsipas, Zverev are all getting better too. Plus there may still be magic left in Federer and Wawrinka too. Who knows what will happen?
It doesn't work in this way.
With these chances to win each slam(assuming indipendence between the events) he has 68,5% chance he win at least one more slam. Not 90%.
If you want details:
Only AO: 31,5%
One more slam: 48,5% (3,5% only RG, 31,5% only Wimbledon, 13,5% only USO)
Two more slams: 18,5% (13,5% loss only RG, 1,5% loss only Wimbledon, 3,5% loss only USO)
Make grand slam: 1,5%
If you want some explanation about how to calculate it, you're welcome.
RaulRamirez
Legend
Even Srdjan would not say 100%.
There's a reason that a CYGS hadn't been done since 1969, and to do it in an Olympic year?!
A 5% chance may be overly optimistic.
There's a reason that a CYGS hadn't been done since 1969, and to do it in an Olympic year?!
A 5% chance may be overly optimistic.
Lew II
G.O.A.T.
Yes thanks.
beard
Legend
Bold, for example... 0.5*0.7*0.1 equals 0.035 (3.5%)
To calculate the probability of a number(3 in this case) of indipendent events to concurrently happen you have to multiply their probability:
You said he has: 10% prob to win RG, 50% prob to win WIM, 30% prob to win USO.
So he has: 90% prob to loss RG, 50% chance to loss WIM, 70% prob to loss USO.
Chanches he won't win any more slam is: 0,9*0,5*0,7=0,315 or rather 31,5%.
He's chance to win AT LEAST one more slam is so: 100%-31,5%=68,5%.
Another example:
If you want to calculate probability to win only US open(Losing WIM and RG), you has:
Prob Loss RG*Prob Loss Wimbledon*Prob Win USO
0,9*0,5*0,3=0,135 or rather 13,5%.
If you want the probability he wins EXACTLY one more slam you have only to sum this probability with probabilities he wins only RG(Losing WIM and USO) and only WIM(Losing RG and USO).
Hope I was clear although my bad English
!
Sport
G.O.A.T.
Indeed, there is a decent chance that the Olympics 2020 won't be played (nor will they be postponed or played in another country). The Olympic Committee will deceide in the following 3 months whether they will suspend or allow the 2020 Olympic games, depending on the evolution of the coronavirus outbreak. In case it is suspended, it won't be postponed nor played in another location according to the official sources from the Olympic Committee.
Sport
G.O.A.T.
He says that every year. He said he wanted the "Grand Slam" in an interview in early 2012.
