Will Federer End 2011 as No. 4?

Love Game · Nov 12, 2011

If Federer wins Paris BNP Sunday, he'll still be World No. 4 ... can he improve his ranking in London, or will he end the year at No. 4?

Live ATP Race Rankings - Last update: Sunday, 13 November 2011, 00:36 CET @ http://live-tennis.eu/race

flyinghippos101 · Nov 12, 2011

probably

10 chars

Mainad · Nov 12, 2011

Love Game said:
If Federer wins Paris BNP Sunday, he'll still be World No. 4 ... can he improve his ranking in London, or will he end the year at No. 4?

Those are just the YTD rankings. In the overall world rankings, Federer will regain the number 3 spot if he wins Paris.

Currently Murray is on 7780 points after defending his quarter-finalist points in Paris from last year.

Federer is currently on 7530 points and has defended his semi-finalist points from last year. He will gain 240 points for progressing to the final which puts him on 7770, just short of Murray. But if he wins tomorrow he will gain a further 400 points which will put him on 8170 points, 390 ahead of Murray and will put him back at #3 in the world rankings from next Monday.

Of course he then needs to defend his WTF title in London to make sure of finishing as world #3. That's 1500 points. If he doesn't and Murray defends his semi-finalist points there from last year, then I think Murray will finish the year as #3 and Federer as #4.

No doubt someone will correct me if I'm wrong.

kishnabe · Nov 12, 2011

It would very difficult for Federer to end year end no 3.

Let say Federer win tommorow he ends a 6670.

Murray would be at 7380. The difference is 710.

Federer has to win the tournament but Murray must no get past the semifinals in order for that to happen.

If Murray wins one match.....then Federer must reach the final undefeated to surpass Murray!

Ico · Nov 12, 2011

If Federer isn't #1, it doesn't really matter whether he's 2, 3, or 4. It seems most fans and Federer himself already understand this. Besides, Federer won his first Major as the 4th seed, so I just hope history will repeat itself in 2012.

flyinghippos101 · Nov 12, 2011

Ico said:
If Federer isn't #1, it doesn't really matter whether he's 2, 3, or 4. It seems most fans and Federer himself already understand this. Besides, Federer won his first Major as the 4th seed, so I just hope history will repeat itself in 2012.

I think the stars are aligning for a final win at wimbledon for Fed.Imagine the coincidence that Fed wins his first slam at Wimbledon as #4 and wins his last slam at Wimbledon as #4.

stringertom · Nov 12, 2011

The key is not slipping past #4, which makes QFs so much harder. With random (?) pairings of #3&4 to #1&2's side of draws, 3&4 are basically interchangeable.

TopFH · Nov 12, 2011

^You better change the random part.

Murrayfan31 · Nov 12, 2011

Who cares. He won't win another slam anyways.

Hood_Man · Nov 12, 2011

It felt like a sure thing a few weeks ago, I was even beginning to think Murray might slip into the #2 position (however slim that was).

Now I think Fed is possibly in the best position to win the WTF again, everyone else seems to be falling apart.

MaiDee · Nov 12, 2011

Mainad said:
Those are just the YTD rankings. In the overall world rankings, Federer will regain the number 3 spot if he wins Paris.

Currently Murray is on 7780 points after defending his quarter-finalist points in Paris from last year.

Federer is currently on 7530 points and has defended his semi-finalist points from last year. He will gain 240 points for progressing to the final which puts him on 7770, just short of Murray. But if he wins tomorrow he will gain a further 400 points which will put him on 8170 points, 390 ahead of Murray and will put him back at #3 in the world rankings from next Monday.

Of course he then needs to defend his WTF title in London to make sure of finishing as world #3. That's 1500 points. If he doesn't and Murray defends his semi-finalist points there from last year, then I think Murray will finish the year as #3 and Federer as #4.

No doubt someone will correct me if I'm wrong.

Drop date for WTF is 14.11.2011. Monday - he will have 6670 points in case that he win today.
In any case, David Ferrer has no chance to be no. 4 any more.

batz · Nov 13, 2011

MaiDee said:
Drop date for WTF is 14.11.2011. Monday - he will have 6670 points in case that he win today.
In any case, David Ferrer has no chance to be no. 4 any more.

Yep - good shout. WTF points are the only ones that drop off before the draw for the next year's event.

I guess this is to ensure that the WTF is all about 'this year'

joeri888 · Nov 13, 2011

batz said:
Yep - good shout. WTF points are the only ones that drop off before the draw for the next year's event.

I guess this is to ensure that the WTF is all about 'this year'

It is indeed. Otherwise, Soderling for instance could still be a top 8er at the moment of the draw. The race to the end of the year isn't an official ranking anymore.

batz · Nov 13, 2011

Mainad said:
Those are just the YTD rankings. In the overall world rankings, Federer will regain the number 3 spot if he wins Paris.

Currently Murray is on 7780 points after defending his quarter-finalist points in Paris from last year.

Federer is currently on 7530 points and has defended his semi-finalist points from last year. He will gain 240 points for progressing to the final which puts him on 7770, just short of Murray. But if he wins tomorrow he will gain a further 400 points which will put him on 8170 points, 390 ahead of Murray and will put him back at #3 in the world rankings from next Monday.

Of course he then needs to defend his WTF title in London to make sure of finishing as world #3. That's 1500 points. If he doesn't and Murray defends his semi-finalist points there from last year, then I think Murray will finish the year as #3 and Federer as #4.

No doubt someone will correct me if I'm wrong.

Getting to the semis doesn't actually get you any additional points over those gained during the groups - hence Murray only having 400 points from last year's WTF.

I think Murray has to make final to guarantee 3rd spot.

MaiDee · Nov 13, 2011

batz said:
Getting to the semis doesn't actually get you any additional points over those gained during the groups - hence Murray only having 400 points from last year's WTF.

I think Murray has to make final to guarantee 3rd spot.

Murray - 7380 + 800 (if make final) =8180
Federer - 6670 +1500 (if he win) =8170

rdis10093 · Nov 13, 2011

fed wiill have to win alot more than murray to reach no. 4 rank.

Z3kk · Nov 13, 2011

Wait...doesn't Federer have to defend his points there? I mean, he won last year, so he can only go down, right? Do WTF points get added on or something? O_O

Mainad · Nov 13, 2011

MaiDee said:
Drop date for WTF is 14.11.2011. Monday - he will have 6670 points in case that he win today.
In any case, David Ferrer has no chance to be no. 4 any more.

Thanks for that. Didn't realise that WTF points dropped BEFORE the tournament.
Must be the only one where that happens!

In that case, there will be no change in the top 4 rankings from tomorrow. Year-end will depend purely on the outcome of WTF.

MaiDee · Nov 13, 2011

Mainad said:
Thanks for that. Didn't realise that WTF points dropped BEFORE the tournament.
Must be the only one where that happens!

In that case, there will be no change in the top 4 rankings from tomorrow. Year-end will depend purely on the outcome of WTF.

You are welcome.
It will be very interesting. Hope that we will see great tennis.

Mainad · Nov 13, 2011

MaiDee said:
You are welcome.
It will be very interesting. Hope that we will see great tennis.

I think we're all hoping for that!

AM95 · Nov 13, 2011

Z3kk said:
Wait...doesn't Federer have to defend his points there? I mean, he won last year, so he can only go down, right? Do WTF points get added on or something? O_O

yea does he have to go undefeated to not lose any points (because last year he got a 500 point bonus since he didn't lose a single match)?

Starfury · Nov 13, 2011

AM95 said:
yea does he have to go undefeated to not lose any points (because last year he got a 500 point bonus since he didn't lose a single match)?

WTF points:
200 per round robin win (so up to 600 for the RR)
400 for semifinal win
500 for final win

So depending on how he does in the RR, the WTF champion can get 1100, 1300 or 1500 points.

Z3kk · Nov 13, 2011

Ah, I see now. Thanks

Allez Federer~

AM95 · Nov 13, 2011

has rafa even clinched 2 yet? does murray have a chance of finishing above nadal?

Eternity · Nov 13, 2011

No, Rafa secured YE#2 after Murray lost to Berdych.

Love Game · Nov 26, 2011

Barclays ATP World Tour Finals Saturday Briefing

" . . . A Federer semi-final victory would resonate on a number of levels. Firstly, he would become the third player to reach the final here seven or more times (Ivan Lendl reached nine finals here, Boris Becker reached eight). Secondly, he would have his 806th career match win, tying him with Stefan Edberg for sixth all-time in the Open Era (only Jimmy Connors, Lendl, Guillermo Vilas, John McEnroe and Andre Agassi have more). Thirdly, he would be the fifth player to reach 100 career tour-level finals in the Open Era (only Connors, Lendl, McEnroe and Vilas have more). Finally, and perhaps most relevant to his current situation, a win would move Federer past Andy Murray and to No. 3 on the year-end rankings - his ninth straight Top 3 year-end ranking. . . ."

http://www.atpworldtour.com/News/Tennis/2011/11/47/London-Finals-Saturday-Briefing.aspx

joeri888 · Nov 26, 2011

Love Game said:
" . . . A Federer semi-final victory would resonate on a number of levels. Firstly, he would become the third player to reach the final here seven or more times (Ivan Lendl reached nine finals here, Boris Becker reached eight). Secondly, he would have his 806th career match win, tying him with Stefan Edberg for sixth all-time in the Open Era (only Jimmy Connors, Lendl, Guillermo Vilas, John McEnroe and Andre Agassi have more). Thirdly, he would be the fifth player to reach 100 career tour-level finals in the Open Era (only Connors, Lendl, McEnroe and Vilas have more). Finally, and perhaps most relevant to his current situation, a win would move Federer past Andy Murray and to No. 3 on the year-end rankings - his ninth straight Top 3 year-end ranking. . . ."

http://www.atpworldtour.com/News/Tennis/2011/11/47/London-Finals-Saturday-Briefing.aspx

A top 3 finish could be big. I see him ending there next year as well maybe. I think Rafa's wheels COULD come off, and so could Novak's. The gap with no. 5 is gigantic still.

tennis_pro · Nov 26, 2011

If Federer wins the tournament, not only he finishes at no 3 in the world but would also be only 1400 points behind Nadal

Ico · Nov 26, 2011

Guess not.

tennis_pro · Nov 26, 2011

Top 4 at the end of season:

1. Djokovic
2. Nadal
3. Federer
4. Murray

Who would've backed Federer to end the year in the top 3 before Basel with Murray having a 2000+ ranking points lead at the time?

Mainad · Nov 26, 2011

tennis_pro said:
Top 4 at the end of season:

1. Djokovic
2. Nadal
3. Federer
4. Murray

Who would've backed Federer to end the year in the top 3 before Basel with Murray having a 2000+ ranking points lead at the time?

I had a strong feeling he would. After skipping the Asian swing, I just knew Fed would be well rested and fresh as a daisy for the year end tournaments. He usually is. The other 3 had either picked up injuries or were tired and jaded or both!

Sentinel · Nov 26, 2011

tennis_pro said:
If Federer wins the tournament, not only he finishes at no 3 in the world but would also be only 1400 points behind Nadal

Rafa better pull up his socks.

Thx for the info, LG.

joeri888 · Nov 26, 2011

What is the record for straight top 3 finishes? Connors in 5?

Also, I don't really see Federer regaining no. 2 behind Nadal. In order to do so, he'll probably need to win the AO, which will most likely consist of either beating Nadal in a Slam, or Djokovic and then Murray back to back. That is unlikely to happen, so unless he finds himself in a half with Ferrer or someone beating the other of the big 4, it seems unlikely. Win 1 match against them out of 5 sets, yes. But two in a row? Not likely anymore.

flyinghippos101 · Nov 26, 2011

joeri888 said:
What is the record for straight top 3 finishes? Connors in 5?

Also, I don't really see Federer regaining no. 2 behind Nadal. In order to do so, he'll probably need to win the AO, which will most likely consist of either beating Nadal in a Slam, or Djokovic and then Murray back to back. That is unlikely to happen, so unless he finds himself in a half with Ferrer or someone beating the other of the big 4, it seems unlikely. Win 1 match against them out of 5 sets, yes. But two in a row? Not likely anymore.

Best case scenario is him drawing Djokovic in his half and then Murray in the finals. Ironically, Fed's chances of beating Djok in a slam are a great deal higher than beating Nadal, at any slam. It's not like Muzza ever puts up a fight at slam finals and has shown little in the way of progress at the big stages. Once again, it's the same thing it has been the past 3 years, he CANNOT afford to face Nadal.

TMF · Nov 26, 2011

Since Basel, Roger has accumulated 2,500 points up to now. And can add 500 more if he win on Sunday, that's a total of 3,000. Pretty good for an indoor season.

Homeboy Hotel · Nov 26, 2011

OP title Question: Will Federer End 2011 as No. 4?

Answer:

No.

/thread

Will Federer End 2011 as No. 4?

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